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High strike rate place system
Testing a new system.
Inital tests over 55 bets ( which isn't enough ) shows a strike rate of 40% win and 89% place. THIS IS A PLACE SYSTEM. I would not bet this for the win as you will be taking many unders. It had a run of 28 places in a row. This system only has 3 simple rules for the inital selection base. The only rule after that is that they are showing less than $5.00 on all totes just prior to the jump. After inital testing I will share them if the system is profitable. Selections for tommorrow: Goulburn: Race 1 : Lyncean Academy ($3.70) Race 3 : Our Saint($2.30) Race 5 : Deejay Brahms($7.00) Race 6 : Lady Zsa Zsa($2.60) Race 7 : Vanidosa($3.00) Race 8 : Maharishi($2.90) Warnambool Race 5 : Jerrymac ($2.80) Race 6 : Poker Face ($26.00) Remember these are only a selection if the price for a win is less than $5. I have left in those showing more than $5 prepost as sometimes they come in. Posting these as a bit of friendly competiton to see if I can beat Savages high strike rate. Personally I think the odds on this will be about 1.10 every race. Good Luck. |
Wesmip1, good luck with the system.
As a matter of interest, I've found as a general rule in Place betting that the shorter the price with the TAB (NSW) the better percentagewise with Betfair. I think the best price I got for a TAB $1.04 divvy was $1.31 on Betfair. |
michaelg,
thanks for the info .. I'll keep a record of both the tab and betfair and see how it looks. Good Luck. |
Bring it on
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Hi Wesmip Great stuff, hopefully this will get alot more prople involed for the common cause. Make some money on the races So far from when I refined my selection process on the 19/4/2004 Races 60 Wins 25 41% Places 49 81% I also have been looking at places only We then only need a staking plan that will control betting i.e retirement plan good luck |
Warnambool races are over as far as the selectiosn go.
Warnambool Race 5 : Jerrymac ($2.80) - WIN (t)$4.80/$1.80, (bf) $4.90/$2.00 Race 6 : Poker Face ($26.00) - Not a selection as it was not under $5.00 Results: Selections : 1 Wins : 1 Win ROT : (t) $4.80 (bf) $4.90 Placings : 1 Place ROT : (t) $1.80 (bf) $2.00 Please note (t) = best tote price available (bf) = betfair price on BAT. Good Luck. |
And the rest of the results :
Goulburn: Race 1 : Lyncean Academy ($3.70) - SCRATCHED Race 3 : Our Saint($2.30) - SCRATCHED Race 5 : Deejay Brahms($7.00) - Not a selection as over $5.00 on totes. WIN at $6.60. Race 6 : Lady Zsa Zsa($2.60) - WIN (t)$2.20/$1.20, (bf) $2.40/$1.33 Race 7 : Vanidosa($3.00) - Not a selection as over $5.00 on totes. Not Placed. Race 8 : Maharishi($2.90) - SCRATCHED Race 7 was an interesting one where you could have gone either way and bet it or left it. I left it as it was showing up to $5.50 on unitab just before the jump. Off to a nice start with 2 selections for 2 wins. Results: Selections : 2 Wins : 2 Win ROT : (t) $7.00 (bf) $7.30 Win strike rate : 100% Placings : 2 Place ROT : (t) $3.00 (bf) $3.33 Place Strike Rate : 100% Please note (t) = best tote price available (bf) = betfair price on BAT. |
Go for it
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Well done wesmip1 Since refined system Races 60 Wins 25 41% Places 49 81% 1/5/2007 Goulburn R6/ N7 Won TOTAL R 61 / W26 / P50 W42% P82% |
19 Selections for tommorrow so we should see either a nice strike rate or a horrible day.
Balaklava Race 1 : Damigar Race 2 : Moctezuma Race 5 : Catskin Race 9 : Ullrich Bunbury Race 1 : Live Our Dream Race 2 : Upgrade Race 5 : Lexicon Gold Race 8 : Princess Hannah Canterbury Race 1 : Up'n'doing Race 2 : Swat Race 4 : Letmeentertainyou Race 6 : Sway Me Now Doomben Race 1 : Encosta Tszyu Race 4 : Costa Complete Kempsey Race 6 : Casino Bob Race 8 : Likazyrtec Launceston Race 1 : Socrates Race 5 : Adamageo Warnambool Race 9 : French King Good Luck. |
Same selections
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Morning Balaclava r 5/ catskin Bunbury R 1/ live our dream Only 2 races same selections. This will be interesting to see what happens as I have only 9 selections good luck to you |
How will you know who win's?
Guys
How will you know who's method is the best? |
wE DO
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WE ALL WIN!!!! |
Good one
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SAME SELECTIONS Races 2 Win 1 Places 2 may be worth following |
A good day today ... A $19 winner although it didn't fall into the rules of under $5.00 on the tote.
Overall, still up and going with a very high percentage. Balaklava Race 1 : Damigar - LOST Race 2 : Moctezuma - WIN (t)$1.90/$1.20, (bf) $2.06/$1.25 Race 5 : Catskin - 2nd (t) $1.20 / (bf) $1.14 Race 9 : Ullrich - Not a Selection as over $5.00 on tote. Not Placed Bunbury Race 1 : Live Our Dream - WIN (t)$3.40/$1.90, (bf) $3.80/$1.44 Race 2 : Upgrade - 3rd (t) $1.90 / (bf) $1.42 Race 5 : Lexicon Gold - WIN (t)$2.30/$1.40, (bf) $2.22/$1.26 Race 8 : Princess Hannah - 3rd (t) $1.70 , (bf) $1.81 Canterbury Race 1 : Up'n'doing - Not a Selection as over $5.00 on tote. Not Placed Race 2 : Swat - WIN (t)$3.30/$2.00, (bf) $2.88/$1.76 Race 4 : Letmeentertainyou - LOST Race 6 : Sway Me Now - 3rd (t) $1.60 / (bf) $1.68 Doomben Race 1 : Encosta Tszyu - 3rd (t) $1.10 / (bf) $1.28 Race 4 : Costa Complete - WIN (t)$2.30/$1.10, (bf) $2.60/$1.34 Kempsey Race 6 : Casino Bob - LOST Race 8 : Likazyrtec - Not a Selection as over $5.00 on tote. 2nd Launceston Race 1 : Socrates - WIN (t)$3.40/$1.90, (bf) $3.65/$1.91 Race 5 : Adamageo - Not a Selection as over $5.00 on tote. WIN $19.50 Warnambool Race 9 : French King - SCRATCHED Today : Selections : 13 Wins : 6 (46%) Placings :11 (84%) Results: Selections : 15 Wins : 8 Win ROT : (t) $23.60 (bf) $24.51 Win strike rate : 53% Placings : 13 Place ROT : (t) $20.00 (bf) $19.62 Place Strike Rate : 87% Please note (t) = best tote price available (bf) = betfair price on BAT. |
NICE ONE
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SAME SELECTIONS 1/5/07 Races 2 Wins 1 Places 2 2/5/07 Races 3 Wins 2 Places 3 TOTAL Races 5 Wins 3 Places 5 Wins 60% Places 100% |
Well done, Savage.
It's interesting that the small Place divvies ($1.20 and under) were higher on Betfair, except only with one selection. It might be worthwhile to keep in mind that sometimes when the TAB pays a Place divvy on first and second only, that Betfair can pay on the first three - it depends on the amount of horses originally entered for a particular race. In such an instance it would be highly unlikely Betfair divvies would be higher than the TAB. Out of interest, I remember an occasion when 8 or more horses had been entered in a race and because of mass scratchings there were only 4 runners that actually started - Betfair paid out on the first three placegetters. Manchester United 3 - A C Milan 1 |
Selections for Tommorrow :
Hawksberry Race 3 : On Potential Rockhampton Race 4 : Revolva Race 5 : Drop Of Hennessy Warrnambool Race 4 : Campaspe River Wagga Race 2 : Xaar's Jewel Race 4 : Stagolee Race 5 : Mr Brightside Race 6 : Hannel's Spur Savage Only 1 selection the same : Wagga Race 4 : 1 Stagolee Good Luck |
Same Selections
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Races 3 Wins 2 Places 3 WINS 60% PLACES 100% |
Only ended up with 4 runners today.
Hawksberry Race 3 : On Potential - LOST Rockhampton Race 4 : Revolva - 3rd (t) $1.20 (bf) $1.36 Race 5 : Drop Of Hennessy - 2nd (t) $1.60 (bf) $1.68 Wagga Race 2 : Xaar's Jewel - WIN (t) $2.50/$1.40 (bf) $3.50/$1.53 Non selections and Reasons: Race 4 : Stagolee - SCRATCHED Race 5 : Mr Brightside - SCRATCHED Race 6 : Hannel's Spur - Not a selection as not under $5 Race 4 : Campaspe River - Not a selection as not under $5 Savage Only 1 selection the same : Wagga Race 4 : 1 Stagolee - SCRATCHED Today : Selections : 4 Wins : 1 (25%) Placings :3 (75%) Results: Selections : 19 Wins : 9 Win ROT : (t) $26.10 (bf) $28.01 Win strike rate : 47% Placings : 16 Place ROT : (t) $24.20 (bf) $24.19 Place Strike Rate : 84% Please note (t) = best tote price available (bf) = betfair price on BAT. |
I just ran this system for the last 9 days through the retirement staking plan.
Starting with a $1,000 Bank Longest losing run was 5 Biggest Drawdown was $141 End Bank was $1460 after 9 days. Profit 46% Level Stakes ($10) was a $167 profit. Profit 16.7% I looked at an alternative system that is very similar but using a slightly less restrictive set of rules. The results were Starting with a $1,000 Bank Longest losing run was 8 Biggest Drawdown was $311 End Bank was $2788 after 9 days. Profit 179%. Level Stakes ($10) was a $465 profit. Profit 46%. Just posting this as it all relies on the same initial seleciton method - just slightly different rules for filtering the final selections. Good Luck. |
Results
Hi Wesnip
Results To - day Hawkesbury R6 / N7 Scratched Wagga R4 / N1 Scratched Warnambool R9 / N2 Placed at $2.90 RUNNING TOTAL FOR MAY
With the retirement plan you used what was your Divisor, average Dividend, % of bank & did you apply a brake? |
Hi Wes,
That 'alternative' system has easily beaten the Retirement Plan with those figures. Are you going to tell us the details, or is it a proprietary item that you can't really share? P.S. Just read your post again. You are actually saying that the horses chosen were different (?). I was presuming it was just a different staking plan on the same picks. (doh!) |
Merriguy,
Its acvually the same inital filter rule to come up with the inital selecitons. But the two systems then apply additional rules that filter out some selections. The first system (which I am following here) is much more restrictive and has a lot less selections. I intend to share the system after a trial preiod ( probably around 1 month). Thanks. |
Thanks for the reply. Good luck with the picks :) .
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Selections?
Hi Wesmip
Any selections for to-day/ |
savage,
Just realised I haven't posted them .... Armidale Race 5 : Callinan Race 7 : Miss Sarah Jane Morninginton Race 2 : Kinroe Wagga Race 1 : Morning Time Race 7 : El Meroo Townsville Race 6 : Prince Of Steel Please accept my apologies for races already run. There was only a couple. Good Luck. |
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The divisor was 4. The average Dividend was $2.30 The percentage of bank was 1%. What do you mean by brake ? I assume you mean incrementing the divisor. yes I did after 6 bets. Thanks |
Thanks Wes
I presume that's for win bets??? have you tried for places |
savage,
I haven't tried places. and yes it is only for win bets. Thanks |
Same selections
Wes
to day Wagga R 1 N 7 Placed SAME SELECTIONS Races 4 Wins 2 Places 4 Wins 50% Places 100% |
A good day today..... although a couple of seconds which should have been winners.
Armidale Race 5 : Callinan - Ran at $2.90 WIN (t)$2.90 / $1.50 (bf) $2.90 / $1.41 Race 7 : Miss Sarah Jane - Ran at $2.50 2nd (t) $1.30 (bf) $1.39 Morninginton Race 2 : Kinroe - Ran at $3.10 WIN (t)$3.10 / $1.50 (bf) $3.55 / $1.43 Wagga Race 1 : Morning Time - Ran at $3.80 2nd (t) $1.80 (bf) $1.65 Race 7 : El Meroo - Ran at $3.90 3nd (t) $1.80 (bf) $1.83 Townsville Race 6 : Prince Of Steel - Ran at (t)$1.90 / $1.60 (bf) $2.16 / $1.84 Today : Selections : 6 Wins : 3 (50%) Placings :6 (100%) Results: Selections : 25 Wins : 12 Win ROT : (t) $34.00 (bf) $36.62 Win strike rate : 48% Placings : 22 Place ROT : (t) $33.70 (bf) $33.74 Place Strike Rate : 88% |
Saturdays Selections:
18 Selections in total. Ipswich Race 1 : Vargas Girl Race 2 : Dusty Samui Race 5 : Van Rooyen Race 6 : Kirralee Queen Rosehill Race 8 : Commanding Victory Mooney Valley Race 4 :Purple Chocolate Gold Coast Race 1 : O'tonda Kembla Grange Race 1 : Tale Of The Storm Race 2 : Particular Race 3 : Bedtime Secrets Race 4 : Violacea Race 7 : Savage Sevens Ballarat Race 7 : Choochookwa Gawler Race 5 : Sebrle Race 7 : Satara Belmont Race 2 : Dance Across Toowoomba Race 2 : Streetwalkin' Race 5 : Covet Gold Good Luck. |
Only 1 similar selection between savage and myself.
Belmont R 2 / N 2 |
Well done today
We had 1 same today |
Not a great day today....
Ipswich Race 1 : Vargas Girl - Ran at $3.00 2nd (t) $1.40 (bf) $1.42 Race 2 : Dusty Samui - Ran at $3.90 LOST Race 5 : Van Rooyen - Ran at $4.80 LOST Race 6 : Kirralee Queen - Not a selection as not under $5.00 on totes. Rosehill Race 8 : Commanding Victory - Ran at $4.10 2nd (t) $2.00 (bf) $1.96 Mooney Valley Race 4 :Purple Chocolate - Ran at $4.80 WIN (t) $4.80 / $2.00 (bf) $5.80 / $2.42 Gold Coast Race 1 : O'tonda - Not a seleciton as over $5.00 on totes. WIN $8.10 Kembla Grange Race 1 : Tale Of The Storm - Ran at $4.20 LOST Race 2 : Particular - Ran at $3.70 LOST Race 3 : Bedtime Secrets- Ran at $2.90 LOST Race 4 : Violacea - Not a selection as over $5.00. Not Placed. Race 7 : Savage Sevens - Ran at $4.10 3rd (t) $1.70 (bf) $1.80 Ballarat Race 7 : Choochookwa - Ran at $4.30 3rd (t) $2.10 (bf) $1.88 Gawler Race 5 : Sebrle - Ran at $2.80 3rd (t) $1.60 (bf) $1.44 Race 7 : Satara - Ran at $3.80 WIN (t) $3.80 / $1.70 (bf) $4.30 / $1.85 Belmont Race 2 : Dance Across - Ran at $2.60 LOST Toowoomba Race 2 : Streetwalkin' - Ran at $2.10 WIN (t) $2.10 / $1.30 (bf) $1.84 / $1.12 Race 5 : Covet Gold - Ran at $2.00 WIN (t) $2.00 / $1.30 (bf) $2.06 / $1.16 Today : Selections : 15 Wins : 4 (26%) Placings :9 (60%) Results: Selections : 40 Wins : 16 Win ROT : (t) $42.90 (bf) $50.62 Win strike rate : 40% Placings : 31 Place ROT : (t) $48.80 (bf) $48.79 Place Strike Rate : 77% |
wesmip1, I think you are doing fantastic so far as is savage.
After 4 years my S/R is 78% and POT of almost 10%, what you are experiencing is NORMAL peaks and troughs with place betting, but I would say from what I've seen that you will do really well, good onya! PS Wasn't Dance Across dissapointing today? |
partypooper,
yeah it goes up and down. But should bea bit more consistent then today. I never saw the race as I was looking after my daughter, but he should have at elast placed. Good Luck. |
I still need to do Launceston, Northam and Echuca. I will post these later.
Taree Race 1 : ********** Breeze Dubbo Race 6 : Power'n'water Sandown Race 3 : Na********a Race 8 : Anabaa King Prawn Sunshine Coast Race 1 : Key Bar Nights Race 4 : Pious Pearl Race 5 : Perrini Race 7 : Cap Riviera Casterton Race 2 : Gypsy Gem Race 3 : Phyllislillian Race 5 : Midnight Dream Race 9 : Zedawind Morphettville Race 3 : Fasline Race 6 : Family Guy Race 7 : Sassbee Race 8 : St Trinians Good Luck. |
All selections for today....
Taree Race 1 : Iri sh Breeze Dubbo Race 6 : Power'n'water Sandown Race 3 : Na sh it a Race 8 : Anabaa King Prawn Sunshine Coast Race 1 : Key Bar Nights Race 4 : Pious Pearl Race 5 : Perrini Race 7 : Cap Riviera Casterton Race 2 : Gypsy Gem Race 3 : Phyllislillian Race 5 : Midnight Dream Race 9 : Zedawind Morphettville Race 3 : Fasline Race 6 : Family Guy Race 7 : Sassbee Race 8 : St Trinians Launceston Race 1 : Extender Race 8 : Sagittare Northam Race 3 : Shashti Race 4 : Slip Pattern Race 5 : Folly Lane Race 7 : Herstorical Echuca Race 3 : Nera Bettina |
Only 1 selection the same as savage:
Northam Race 3 : Shashti |
ATT: Wes
Hi Wes
Just wondering if you got my e-mail |
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