Radio Tab Tips
 

Evening fellow sytemites, a revelation for you tonight! Many of you have systems based on the Radio Tab tips, but are you aware that they are merely the Tipsters picks????? ie. Perth = Darren McCauleys' tips, Brisbane = Glen Davis Tips, Sydney = Ian Craig tips, Melbourne = Greg Miles tips, AR, mmmm, not sure but I'm sure more of the same, maybe someone can fill us in??

I'm sure that this little snippet will have many in anguish, but there you go we are supposed to be helping each other?????

Their selections are as good as any one elses, they are better than most paid selection services.
Most selection services have an approx 36% SR from their top 2.
These guys have 40%.
Pretty good.

If any one thinks this is rubbish , they must be of a higher order & therefore would have no problem selecting the best chance & eventual winner of the race from this lot..
If they are right 100% of the time, therefore 50% winners, now worries.

I am amazed at those who blab their arrogant gums when they know nothing of the stats & offer nothing in place that may be any better.
It's also free & they still winge.

If one does not like the price of the final selection, dont bet it.

Some of the prices struck can be suprisingly good..

For those interested in the Stats.
1st sel 25% SR
2nd Sel 15% SR
3rd Sel 10% SR
4th Sel 10% SR
Total 60%

So all you have to do is pick the winner from this lot & you have got yourself a brilliant SR.
Easy , or is it ?

Cheers.

Bhagwan, you might recall that one of my recent Lay systems pitted the neurals against Radio TAB's top selections.

I ended the system for the simple reason that Radio TAB was outperforming the neurals. From this, it doesn't have to take Sherlock Holmes to conclude that Radio TAB's selections do have merit.

Interestingly, the same neural settings are applied to my current Lay system with Unitab's 100 pointers - which is currently in profit. This also indicates the strength of Radio TAB's selections.

Michael

I'm not sure when the Radio selections become available but I suspect they are able to make better use of late information from stables and weather etc. than the 100 pointers. That may be a reason.

Wes did tell me once that the 100 pointers hit about 23% of the time though.

AngryPixie,

it's a good point you make about late info - Perth Radio TAB Saturday selections can appear after mid-day even during non-daylight saving months.

I would presume the commercial tipping agencies would also wait for late info, but as Bhagwan says, Radio TAB outperforms many of them.

As at the time of this posting (9.20 a.m.) there are no Radio TAB selections on any of today's 3 venues while the 100 pointers are already shown.

I was a little surprised that you didn't know that, Party.My 'beef' with it is that because they are given out on the radio by the race callers then they are widely known --- and consequently over-bet with the general public. In other words, if they win, then they are way 'unders'.

Bhagwan, no I wasn't commenting on the success rate, as you say it's better than most, I was merely pointing out that the Radio Tips are just the local tipsters tips not something different. It was just something I noticed when I was doing research on the radio tips.

Hi Party
I was not trying to have a go at you my friend , it was that other comment which used the word "rubbish" to descibe the whole free service.

Some selections like any other tipping service will be over bet & still lose while one of the other 2 selections may be under bet at great prices & still be over looked by the punting market which get up to win.

Its a good example of how important it is to try & understand value.

The Radio TAB uses different chaps for different Tracks often its one of the racecallers who do nothing but horses 8 hours a day , every day, so one would think that they would have more than a little knowledge about the main chances of a given race.
Sometimes they are way off beam just like computer generated stuff can be & just like we can also be, but its their overall stats should be focused on.

Their tips come in after the scratchings are known.

Cheers.

Can someone remind me to post the stats for this on the weekend.

I will give the strike rates and the ROT for each fo the Radio tab tips and the 100 pointer raters going back a few years.

I am in Melbourne this week without access to my database.

Good Luck.

wesmip1, hey that would be great, save me hours on the comp. I seem to be seeing a pattern also when the selection is rated 97+, maybe you have the means to correlate that??

partypooper,

I can do that for you too. Just remind me on the weekend :)

Good Luck

Radio TAB tip
 

This is no bad for Radio TAB tip,

RADIO TAB 13-9-1 Late Mail 9 1350M FINE GOOD


9 MISS CHARISSE 15.10 4.20
11 SACRED HEART 1.60
13 RUNAWAY FUND 2.20
SCR 10 15 16 17



QN 9*11 24.00
**** 9*11 71.80

TF 9*11*13 578.90
A2 9*11 7.70
9*13 5.20
11*13 4.00

and they are still going at about that rate. See the other thread which requested stats for it or the image below.

ok now for what was requested...

Radio tip 1 has a 23% strike rate but a 18% loss on turnover.
Radio tip 2 has a 19% strike rate but a 15% loss on turnover.
Radio tip 3 has a 14% strike rate but a 16% loss on turnover.

So the tipsters select at least 56% of the winners in the top 3.

See image below for these stats. This is over 21916 races. Notice that some races do not have tips as some venues do not get tips at all ( not very often but there are about 700 races missing tips). Also the second and third tips are not always there due to scratchings.

Partypooper,

As requested a breakdown of tips vs rating is attached.

Sorry it is in zip format but the site only allows very small images to be posted (nothing over 100K).

Some interesting information from it is:

Radio Tip 1 + 100 rater has a 33% strike rate which is as good as favs but all selections are probably favs.

The strike rates for the first tip are substanially higher then the second or third tips.

Any other requests just let me know.

Good Luck

Wes that's all really great stuff. Thanks very much.

wesmip1, thanks for that, a bit better than I thought, without any further filters, so very interesting, thanks very much.

Thanks wesmip1 can you show us the s/r when the horse rated 100 is also the favourite. Cheers:)

Kiwi,

When the fav is also the 100 rater :

Win Strike Rate : 35%
Place Strike Rate : 68%
Win ROT : 13% loss
Place ROT : 8% loss
This is over 9556 selections.

If the 100 rater who is a fav is also the top radio pick :

Win Strike Rate : 38%
Place Strike Rate : 70%
Win ROT : 14% loss
Place ROT : 8% loss
This is over 5591 selections.

If the 100 rater who is a fav is also the top radio pick and the late mail pick :

Win Strike Rate : 41%
Place Strike Rate : 73%
Win ROT : 14% loss
Place ROT : 8% loss
This is over 2466 selections.

If the 100 rater who is a fav is also the top radio pick and the guest tipster top pick:

Win Strike Rate : 41%
Place Strike Rate : 73%
Win ROT : 13% loss
Place ROT : 9% loss
This is over 1908 selections.

If the 100 rater who is a fav is also the top radio pick and the guest tipster top pick and is the late mail top pick:

Win Strike Rate : 44%
Place Strike Rate : 77%
Win ROT : 12% loss
Place ROT : 8% loss
This is over 950 selections.

Hope that helps

Good Luck.

just for your info guest tipster is the tipster who is named on selected tracks. You mianly see them on saturdays and Wednesdays.

I have found NONE of them are anywhere near breakeven after they have tipped at least 200 races. Most revert to a 15% loss.

Good Luck.

Thanks wesmip1 very useful data :)

That's hardly a revelation, PP. I've mentioned that fact MANY times on here before when people have asked about them.

And it's Terry McAuliffe in Adelaide.

Sportz,thanks for that, no didn't know, and I'm certain that many other people didn't either. are they all racecallers?

wesmip1, many thanks for all that , great stuff saved me hours of research, most of my stuff is long hand, not very good with the comp I'm afraid.

I'm really interested though, if and when you have time and if you're able, does adding either /or the following push any of those stats into PROFIT?

(1) Last start winners only

(2) distance (suggested 1400-1600 only)

Last Start winner does nothing but remove selections. In the end the stats are very similar with maybe 1% either side of where they are without the filter.

For distance there are mixed results. I have attached a screenshot of the last system which had the best strike rate ie. If the 100 rater who is a fav is also the top radio pick and the guest tipster top pick and is the late mail top pick:

wesmip1, thanks again, seems we can't shake off that TAB takeout can we? by the way, were those stats SP, best tote or what?
Funny, I remember reading years ago that when they introduced 10 % betting tax in the UK years ago it killed off many professional punters. Well ,we'll have another go at Kalgoorlie today, good day at Belmont yesterday.

partypooper,

They are unitab prices. So best tote might add 5% overall and betfair could add up to 10% more which is almost breakeven.

One place which I have ear marked for research (which someone else may be able to rpovide me the stats for) is the gain by using betfair for place bets. I believe place betting on betfair can be very profitable but I am yet to prove it.

The reason I think this is because it isn't rounded down to the nearest 10c. Also you can get fixed odds which can be a great assisteance for certain selection methods.

Good Luck.

wesmip1, thanks again, ...at the risk of overstaying my welcome can I ask to run one (two) more query(ies).

apply 100 pointers races 3-9 only (no other filters)

the above but Metro track only??

thanks in advance.

Wesmip1.

It is interesting to note that the Radio TAB tips you tested in conjunction with the 100 pointers and guest tipsters, that the loss on Place betting in all the methods is not as great as the loss on Win betting.

partypooper,


I can't do it for Metro only as I don't distinguish as the systems I look for should run on ALL race types. If you aim for metro, provisional, etc you are getting too specific.

But for your request of 100 rateers based on race number see the image below:

Good Luck.

michaelg,

I have found if you look at favs or near favs that the place does return higher than the straight out win betting.

It is something that can be profited from if you think about it logically. For starters places on betfair are usually higher than the numbers used here which were unitab prices. Plus you are not getting rounded down to the nearest 10c.

Good Luck.

wesmip1, many thanks, that just about confirmed my figures there.

Using the formulae' "if pre post fav or 4-1 or less (pre-post) then back at top fluc, if above 4-1, bet at maxi divi if Metro, if not Best Country price (Sportsbet)" and were into profit!!

Race 8 seems to defy my figures though , I'm not sure why, but I only bet Metro, maybe that's it!

Beauty of this; is that bets can be placed well b4 racing, so no calculations under pressure.

Once again wesmip1, many thanks! much appreciated.