My early pick for the CC is Sixty Seconds with 50.5kg. Judging by yesterdays run has come back better than ever. Didn't see the real Sixty Seconds in the AJC Australian Oaks in April. Currently quoted around 10/1

I could'nt agree more Rogan Josh, i backed Sixty Seconds for the Caulfield Cup a month ago and although i missed the money yesterday, i'm feeling pretty confident in the cup, it was a excellent trial.

Yes he has to be a chance... Also think Carnegie will push on after a slow start, and really like Mon Mekki. Think she is way over the odds, and is sure to make the field.

I like Sky Heights at this stage.

Has only 1/2 kg more than when he ran a nose 2nd to Ethereal in last years CC.

Would you be backing Ethereal in this years CC with 1/2 kg more than she carried last year?

I think that answers itself.

Benarrivo.

northerly

Caulfield Cup - 3rd Acceptances:

1 NORTHERLY Fred Kersley 58
2 UNIVERSAL PRINCE Bede Murray 56
3 SANDMASON (GB) Tony McEvoy 55.5
4 HELENE VITALITY (NZ) David Hayes 54.5
5 CARNEGIE EXPRESS (NZ) David Payne 54
6 HATHA ANNA (IRE) Saeed Bin Suroor 54
7 FIELDS OF OMAGH Tony McEvoy 53.5
8 FREEMASON John Hawkes 53.5
9 MAGUIRE (NZ) Jon Collins 53.5
10 RAIN GAUGE George Hanlon 53.5
11 BEEKEEPER (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor 53
12 DRESS CIRCLE (NZ) Gai Waterhouse 53
13 KAAPSTAD WAY (NZ) Chris Wood 53
14 HAIL (NZ) Bruce Marsh 52.5
15 HENDERSON BAY (NZ) Neville McBurney 52.5
16 HEY PRONTO (NZ) Gai Waterhouse 52.5
17 MAGICAL MISS Bart Cummings 52.5
18 DASH FOR CASH Rick Hore-Lacy 52
19 NATIVE JAZZ (NZ) Myles Plumb 52
20 PENTASTIC David Hall 52
21 PRIZED GEM (NZ) Murray Baker 52
22 REPUBLIC LASS Guy Walter 52
23 VICTORY SMILE (NZ) Donna Logan 52 1.5
24 CYCLADES (NZ) Cydne Evans 51.5
25 DISTINCTLY SECRET (NZ) Mark Walker 51.5
26 SPIRIT OF WESTBURY (NZ) Cliff Brown 51.5
27 GREY SONG Tommy Hughes 51
28 MEDIA PUZZLE (USA) Dermot Weld 51
29 THONG CLASSIC Pat Carey 51
30 THE A TRAIN (NZ) Cliff Brown 50.5
31 THE BIG ASK (NZ) Michael Moroney 50.5
32 BIG PAT Peter Tulloch 50
33 THE SECONDMORTGAGE (NZ) Michael Moroney 50
34 TULLY THUNDER Ross McDonald 50
35 BEDOUIN John O'Shea 49.5
36 FIRETAINE (NZ) Stuart Webb 49.5
37 GENTLE GENIUS Tony Wildman 49
38 GOLD LOTTEY Graeme Rogerson 49
39 LESTER THUNDERWING Ken Keys 49
40 MANANG (NZ) Lee Freedman 49
41 MISS MELISS (NZ) Bart Cummings 49
42 NATIONAL TREASURE (NZ) Gai Waterhouse 49
43 PIACHAY (NZ) David Hall 49
44 TYROLEAN Bart Cummings 49

Sixty Seconds gone amiss - bled I think?!

Early tips now are Magical Miss, Pentastic and Distinctly Secret

Hi, I see native jazz is still in the hunt. I will be looking very carefully at this horses lead up form. Miles Plumb does set his top chances for key races with a fair degree of success.

I'm not claiming anything yet as I havn't done a detailed study this campaign, just pointing out a potential chance if fitness etc. is there.

Good punting, Horse cents

I reckon it will be either Carnegie Express or Rain Gauge. I think the toppy will struggle at the weight and distance, but what a champion. You can't write him off because he will be on the pace and trying to stave off the challenges.

Caulfield Cup final field - Barrier draw tomorrow. My early selections are all still running.

1 NORTHERLY Fred Kersley 58
2 UNIVERSAL PRINCE Bede Murray 56
3 SANDMASON (GB) Tony McEvoy 55.5
4 HELENE VITALITY (NZ) David Hayes 54.5
5 FIELDS OF OMAGH Tony McEvoy 53.5
6 FREEMASON John Hawkes 53.5
7 MAGUIRE (NZ) Jon Collins 53.5
8 RAIN GAUGE George Hanlon 53.5
9 BEEKEEPER (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor 53
10 KAAPSTAD WAY (NZ) Chris Wood 53
11 MAGICAL MISS Bart Cummings 52.5
12 DASH FOR CASH Rick Hore-Lacy 52
13 PENTASTIC David Hall 52
14 PRIZED GEM (NZ) Murray Baker 52
15 REPUBLIC LASS Guy Walter 52
16 DISTINCTLY SECRET (NZ) Mark Walker 51.5
17 THE SECONDMORTGAGE (NZ) Michael Moroney 50
18 TULLY THUNDER Ross McDonald 50
19 HEY PRONTO (1st emg) Gai Waterhouse 52.5
20 HAIL (NZ) (2nd emg) Bruce Marsh 52.5
21 GREY SONG (3rd emg) Tommy Hughes 51

Really starting to warm up to the forgotten horse of the Spring, Universal Prince... Love the way he finishes his races off. One of my fav's...

Notherly, Helene Vitality, Republic Lass

Every year there are always touts about overseas contenders and personally I have always treated them with a grain of salt. So far it has been to my own profit.

However, don't let Beekeeper get under your guard this year. A colleague of mine has very strong links to some serious punters in the UK (who also follow Aust racing) and they believe that at the weights and over 2400m he has this field covered (if he races to his ability on the day of course).

In betting Beekeeper has been backed to win an absolute fortune to the point where a number of Australia's prominent bookmakers will not expose themselves to any more for significant sums on the horse. Of course that doesn't mean he will win, my main point is that we should consider him as a genuine chance.

He likes to race in the first 5 or 6 and by all reports the stable is very pleased with his work since arriving in Australia. He has drawn in barrier 6 so looks like he will get a perfect run just behind the speed.

Personally I stood him out as the CC winner in doubles with 6 of the now favoured runners in the Melbourne Cup, at massive odds relative to what they are now.

My own assessment is that he is a realitic $9-10 chance, so there is probably not alot of betting value left. However if you are rating the race, certainly allow enough in your percentages to represent the fact that he has a very good winning chance.

If he wins it will be a big betting coup for his supporters and then a nervous wait until the Melbourne Cup to see if I can cash in.

If he gets well beaten of course he will just be another hyped overseas contender who failed to live up to expectations.

Final Field - Caulfield Cup with barrier draw.

No Horse Trainer Barrier Wt
1 NORTHERLY Fred Kersley 10 58
2 UNIVERSAL PRINCE Bede Murray 12 56
3 SANDMASON (GB) Tony McEvoy 17 55.5
4 HELENE VITALITY (NZ) David Hayes 14 54.5
5 FIELDS OF OMAGH Tony McEvoy 11 53.5
6 FREEMASON John Hawkes 4 53.5
7 MAGUIRE (NZ) Jon Collins 20 53.5
8 RAIN GAUGE George Hanlon 3 53.5
9 BEEKEEPER (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor 6 53
10 KAAPSTAD WAY (NZ) Chris Wood 8 53
11 MAGICAL MISS Bart Cummings 7 52.5
12 DASH FOR CASH Rick Hore-Lacy 15 52
13 PENTASTIC David Hall 13 52
14 PRIZED GEM (NZ) Murray Baker 21 52
15 REPUBLIC LASS Guy Walter 1 52
16 DISTINCTLY SECRET (NZ) Mark Walker 9 51.5
17 THE SECONDMORTGAGE (NZ) Michael Moroney 5 50
18 TULLY THUNDER Ross McDonald 2 50
19 HEY PRONTO (1st emg) Gai Waterhouse 16 52.5
20 HAIL (NZ) (2nd emg) Bruce Marsh 18 52.5
21 GREY SONG (3rd emg) Tommy Hughes 19 51

Prediction - if Northerly starts in the CC, he will not contest the Cox Plate.

Have taken the following first 4 in Cup -

Fields of Omagh
Universal Prince
Rain Gauge
Distinctly Secret

Good luck to all

Cheers
Cosmo

My prediction is that barring injury or ill health to Northerly, he will definitely back up in the Cox Plate.

The word is that while Fred Kersley has the utmost respect for Sunline and Lonhro he is very confident that running at his best Northerly has the slight edge. His biggest concern is Grandera and the difficulty in lining him up.

Of course Fred is probably biased however he can feel reasonably confident that all things being equal Northerly can just shade Sunline and that overall his fighting spirit and toughness would stand him on very good stead against the much less seasoned Lonhro, especially over 2000m.

Fred certainly isn't saying that Northerly has it in the bag. I understand it to be that he is confident that if Northerly is well, he will be right in the finish with Sunline, Lonhro, Grandera etc. and that being the case he would be mad not to start him and potentially chalk up 2 in a row. Maybe he is even thinking that if Northerly can do that, it sets the scene for his last ever preparation next spring to be another Cox Plate mission and the chance to write himself into the record books against the great Kingston Town.

Magical Miss. Should fly home with the 52.5kg.

I will add to that. If Northerly starts in the Caulfield Cup, in my opinion he CANNOT WIN the Cox Plate, and therefore may as well not start in the Cox Plate. It has to be one or the other. He has a great chance in EITHER race. But not in both. This is a crash hot Cox Plate with five absolutely genuine winning chances. I hope he runs in the CC, then there is one less champ chasing down Sunline in the Cox Plate! Go the Queen! I am still sticking to Rain Gauge in the CC, but have great respect for the toppie. The cream almost always rises to the top.

I'v taken a liking to the ladies "Magical Miss" and "Republican Lass".

"Northerly" has beaten most of these but I don't think he can he beat the handicapper this time around.

"Beekeeper" is interesting and cannot be left out of calculations.

Magical Miss/Republican Lass/Beekeeper

ok lets see,
the fields of omagh were facing northerly but the magical miss could not get to the raingauge in time.could it be that the beekeeper has moved the post.
cryptic top 5
may all who wager reap the rewards!

Distinctly Secret
Tully Thunder
Freemason

These ones I reckon represent great value at current market odds:

DASH FOR CASH *** Shapes like he'll go the distance and beautifully weighted.

HELENE VITALITY ** Should be peaking perfectly for the CC. Trained to the minute.

UNIVERSAL PRINCE * Classy problem horse who, at best, would win. Distance suits and worth a ticket at outsider's odds.


On balance, these ones I reckon represent very poor value at current market odds:

NORTHERLY Champion but simply not suited under the handicap conditions and doubtful of running the trip.

PENTASTIC Fair lead-up form but grossly over-rated by the public. Not up to this.


A wildcard? If HEY PRONTO was to get a run, I'd rate him a genuine natural odds chance.

I'm interested in why a number of people believe that Northerly won't run the distance?

The truth is we really don't know do we? I learnt a rule a long time ago that I have always stuck by when it comes to distance....."the trainer knows the horse better than we do, so in the absence of contrary evidence, we are better off to accept the trainers judgement than make an assumption that a horse won't run a given distance....if we don't we are simply guessing".

This is especially true when referring to top class horses like Northerly.

Fred Kersley wouldn't be starting him...with 58kg....with the chance of flattening him for the Cox plate...if he didn't believe Northerly would run the trip.

My analysis from this time last year made me very excited to see Northerly race over 2400m. His running style made me believe that at his best he would be almost unbeatable over the distance. He has the ability to maintain very high speed for extended distances, especially in the run to the line. In the Cox plate last year, he was the only horse travelling faster in the last 200m of the race than he did during the first section, all the others were going slower.

This ability to maintain high speed in the run to the line while most horses tire at an increasing rate is basically what makes him look like a 'fighting tiger' A horse might head him briefly, but Northerly keeps going at a similar pace, the others tire in the last 100m and it gives the impression he fights back. When he fights back he isn't actually picking up speed, he's losing speed at a small rate, but the others are losing it at a much greater rate.

There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that Northerly can't run the distance so based on my rule and analysis of his running style, i'm going to adopt the view that he can run the trip. We could even argue that Northerly is much more dour this preparation, more of a grinding type...if anything that makes him more likely to run the distance.

If there is all this talk about Northerly running the trip, what about Dash for Cash? Northerly has won numerous times over 2000m, Dash for Cash is yet to...he is more a sprinter miler. But the same point holds, there is no evidence that he can't run the trip and Rick Hore Lacy wouldn't be starting him if he had major doubts, so we have to assume that he will run it out.

Of course we will find out Saturday

While I agree with your thoughts osulldj - I sort of have an opposing theory on the distance subject.

If a horse has not proved itself in the going, over the distance, or at the weight it may be under the true odds of winining.

Trainers are often pressured into running horses in big races by connections who want to see their horse in a Caulfied or Melbourne Cup etc.

When there are doubts - the trainer usually suggests to the jockey about prizemoney available up to 5th place of $95,000 - worthwhile.

I would stick to horses who are proven at the weights, distance etc.

That's not to say Northerly or others can't do it, I'd just rather have my money on something at value that's proven to be up to it in the past.

Looking at Northerly's breeding – tons of staying blood on his sire's side.

By Serheed, sired Beau Heed (2400m winner WA Cox Stakes), Heed the Toll (Perth Cup), Kim Angel (WA Derby). Serheed's sire NijinskyII sired Lammtarra (UK Epsom Derby, French Arc de Triomphe) and before that Ferdinand (USA Kentucky Derby).

The real question - how fast can Northerly run the 2400m on the day carrying 58kg, as apposed to some others.

BREAKING NEWS!

Magical Miss, a one-time favorite for the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups broke down at trackwork today and will miss the remainder of her spring engagements.
The mare has already been officially scratched from Saturday’s Caulfield Cup.
Original first emergency Hey Pronto has also been scratched which means New Zealander Hail will make the field and Grey Song is now first emergency.
Meanwhile, smart but unlucky three-year-old Bel Esprit is still in the Cox Plate mix after some of his connections decided to over-rule an earlier decision to spell him.
However, while trainer John Symons is pressing on with plans to start him in the $3 million race, he will not make a final decision until the colt gallops next Tuesday.

My early picked dropped out long ago.

Warming to Pentastic (13), Freemason (6) & Prized Gem (14)

the miss has gone amiss.
that brings in that new zealand smokey hail.
well was that first up run in the cranbourne a warm up?
its in my stable.
we spend we hope we win!

I agree with your statement EI that any variable which is an unknown must be considered a risk and assessed in light of the horses other form factors and of course its price before deciding whether to support with your hard earned.

Certainly if a horse is an unknown at the distance and is at poor odds given that and other factors you would be mad to support him (or her).

However every man and his dog identifies and supports those that are proven at the distance, weight, class etc. etc. It's hard to find value horses amongst those that have the full list of positives in their form. When a horse has so many positives everyone knows it and supports it accordingly. The result is poor betting value.

I firmly believe that to win we have to go beyond the search for the so called "sure thing" or horse that has ticks against every form factor and be prepared to conduct calculated risk assessment on perceived negative form factors, the odds the horse is in the market, and whether its worth taking the gamble that if the perceived factor isn't negative, you have a massive overlay winner.

It's not until you can start taking calculated risks on horses that have the odd negative form factor that you really start getting amongst the big value chances. Note this doesn't necessarily mean the horse is a long shot.

In essence I believe the best road to success is to wait for the right opportunity and pick your spots to take a calculated risk by adopting a view different to the public.

One way I do this relates to the points I made about distance. If the market seems to have its mind made up a horse can't run the distance, its price will often get out beyond what it would otherwise be. If there is no evidence to say the horse can't run the distance, and the price is good enough, i'm willing to take the chance. I usually confine this to good quality horses.

Of course you're not right all the time. Sometimes the horse can't run the distance, but on other times it does and I clean up.

The key point is that we need to differentiate between cases where there is hard evidence to support a judgement about a horse and those occassions where it is simply a guess or even an educated "guess". Whenever judgements are made on the basis of some form of guessing, and then those judgements are reflected in the betting market, I view that as an opportunity to adopt a contrarian view and win big when i'm right.

I like Magical Miss to beat Fields of Omagh. Can Northely run the distance with that sort of weight. If he does run his normal race he will be run down by one of the above lightweights.
Go Magic!

Again, some great points osulldj -

The only way that our views differ, is that you can still find value from proven weight and distance horses which have below average recent form. Punters tend to look at the last three or so starts and then write off poor performers. These horses surprise at big odds in races like this.

You know, I have had more picks on this post than a starving chicken, but the late mail says "Beekeeper"... I don't know, but I hear good... If he win this, he will nearly start favourite in the Melbourne Cup. Wonder if he's worth an early saver?

[ This Message was edited by: Tab Hunter on 2002-10-17 21:24 ]

:lol:

Gotta Love it!

Based on information and the changing complexity of this race, I have decided to change my tip and bet for this race to....

The Secondmortgage.

Good Luck All.

As the north star travels into the parallel universe, my cat sat on a mat that was blue and as my coffee spilt across the table, it left a white shaped funny looking star-
MAGUIRE at any old odds might sneak a place.

I split open that starving chicken to have a look at it's entrails. They were all black and yellow, so I took the hint and plonked it all on Beek... then I thought NO... by crikey they're telling me NORTHERLY.

With Magical Miss out, tips now are Pentastic, Distinctly Secret, BeeKeeper & Freemason.

A quick tally to-date of tips on this thread, reads as follows:

BEEKEEPER – 5
NORTHERLY – 4
DISTINCTLY SECRET – 3
RAIN GAUGE – 3
UNIVERSAL PRINCE – 3
FIELDS OF OMAGH –3
FREEMASON – 3
PENTASTIC – 2
HELENE VITALITY – 2
REPUBLIC LASS – 2
TULLY THUNDER – 1
DASH FOR CASH – 1
PRIZED GEM – 1
HAIL – 1
THE SECONDMORTGAGE – 1
MAGUIRE -1

Well leaping leprechauns, where have all you new chums come from?

Go off for a wee spell, and by gosh find almost a whole new community!

Conga! Conga! Gets me every time.

Caulfield Cup eh? Sounds like a important event!

Gonna hit the bookies tomorrow – Pentastic, BeeKeeper, Freemason & The Secondmortgage. :smile:

Speakin of bookies:


When the little old lady fronted up to the bookie for yet another payout, the bookie was perplexed.

“You must be using becareful’s system”

“Would like to, but becareful keeps his system under lock & key” says the little old lady

“In that case” says the bookie, “you must be getting your tips from Equine Investor or perhaps Hermes, or that new chap on the block – the milky bar kid”!

“No such luck” says the little old lady, “if you must know, I just stick a pin in the paper”!

“But how have you managed to pick four winners in the one afternoon” says the bookie in astonishment


“Oh I was in a hurry this morning & couldn't find my pin, so I had to use a fork” she explained

:lol:


_________________
May the luck of the Irish be with you!



[ This Message was edited by: Paddy on 2002-10-20 07:04 ]

Republic Lass.