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Stradbroke HCP 1400m Eagle Farm
1 XCELLENT (NZ) Michael Moroney M T Coleman 57 (1)
2 MALCOLM John Hawkes 55 (22) 3 MITANNI Guy Walter S Scriven 54.5 (2) 4 GEE I JANE (NZ) Neville Couchman M Rodd 54.5 (6) 5 BLACK INK Les Kelly D Oliver 54 (24) 6 GOLD EDITION Ron Maund J Cassidy 53.5 (7) 7 ROYAL IDA Michael O'Leary D Dunn 53.5 (23) 8 STORMHILL Tim Martin C Brown 53.5 (9) 9 HARD TO CATCH Pat Duff B Stewart 53 (21) 10 SHINZIG Gerald Ryan G Childs 53 (14) 11 REIGNING TO WIN John O'Shea G Boss 52.5 (19) 12 BENEDETTI Tony Noonan Steven King 52.5 (17) 13 DAUNTING LAD Bill Naoum 52.5 (4) 14 THE JACKAL Paul St Vincent 51.5 (12) 15 MR UBIQUITOUS (NZ) Chris Waller S Seamer 51.5 (16) 16 FRIDAY CREEK John O'Shea T Clark (a) 51.5 (13) 17 SMART AND MIGHTY Tony Noonan K N Forrester 51.5 (8) 18 MAGIC MARVO Rod Craig J Taylor 51.5 (18) 19 NOVA STAR Kelly Schweida J Byrne 51 (11) 20 SNIPER'S BULLET Tracey Bartley C Williams 50 (15) 21E SNORT Rick Hore-Lacy B El-Issa 49.5 (5) 22E ENRIQUE Mark F Webb 51 (20) 23E ROMAN SQUIRE Paul Dawson 51 (3) 24E PRINCE LEO Alan Bailey 49.5 (10) |
The rain isn't going to help alot of these horses and it is going to be a more of a wait and see what happens and hope the race even happens on the weekend.
The horses I like for the race right now are Sniper's Bullet: I have already backed him at $9 last night and glad I did as it is the horse everyone is talking about dropping 10kgs from his 1st up run in brissie which I thought was full of merit, sure the opposition wasn't the quality of what he is going to meet in this race but he has been set for this for along time and I would be surprised if he isn't right in the finish regardless of conditions. Royal Ida: I really think he is a chance in this isn't treated badly at the weights likes the trip and can handle the wet I haven't had a stab at him yet I am happy to wait and see what happens between now and saturday I wouldn't be leaving him out of any multis. Stormhill: I felt his 1st run in brissie was a cracker and he has performed well on wet tracks in sydney in the past he is the one horse nooone is talking about that is definitely capable of running a massive race in this he can sit just near the speed aswell which could be advantagous aswell not to mention he drops 5kgs for being beaten 2.2l by Friday Creek 1st up. Mr Ubiquitous: This guy loves a wet track and for that reason alone i had a small bet on him last night at $61 win and $16 place not sure if he has the quality to win a race like this but the wetter it gets the better his chances are and I felt at those odds he was worth a bit of a flutter. I am going to have a trifecta on the race and it could change a bit if the rain goes away I can't see that happening and would be surprised if they run on something better than a slow track come saturday. One horse I am including if he gets a run is Roman Squire loved his last run not sure he is good enough or not but I don't think this is the strongest stradbroke ever either. Alot of people are spruiking Black Ink yo me and I say good luck to all of you maybe he can win but it will be without me backing him this time I seriously doubt this horse at 1400m he just doesn't seem to really finish it off I will probably include him in my triffecta as I can see him running a place just cannot see him winning this. |
TAB Sportsbet:
GOLD EDITION - $5.50 / $2.12 MITANNI - $5.50 / $2.12 REIGNING TO WIN - $6.50 / $2.37 SNIPERS BULLET - $6.50 / $2.37 BLACK INK - $8.00 / $2.75 STORMHILL - $13.00 / $4.00 GEE I JANE - $15.00 / $4.50 ROYAL IDA - $15.00 / $4.50 MR UBIQUITOUS - $21.00 / $6.00 FRIDAY CREEK - $26.00 / $7.25 NOVA STAR - $26.00 / $7.25 SNORT (1E) - $26.00 / $7.25 XCELLENT - $26.00 / $7.25 BENEDETTI - $35.00 / $9.50 MALCOLM - $35.00 / $9.50 SMART AND MIGHTY - $35.00 / $9.50 HARD TO CATCH - $71.00 / $18.50 SHINZIG - $71.00 / $18.50 THE JACKAL - $71.00 / $18.50 DAUNTING LAD - $101.00 / $26.00 ENRIQUE (2E) - $101.00 / $26.00 MAGIC MARVO - $101.00 / $26.00 PRINCE LEO (4E) - $101.00 / $26.00 ROMAN SQUIRE (3E) - $101.00 / $26.00 |
firstly i hate the weights situation. its a top group 1 race. 1 horse has 57kg with the next best having 55kg. its definitely a weak field mainly weights wise but the calibre of horses is a little down too........ back with selections later in the week.
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one point gold edition should have it in the bag with the limited amount of up front speed in the race......
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I'm already on GeeIJAne at 21's ,,,this was before the 10,000 where she didnt do to much,,her odds went out to 31 but all this rain around has brought her back into 15's,,i still think she has a big show i actually like the barrier especially that time of the day...i'm hoping the rain stays around
Black Ink, Snipers and Royal ida of course come into it...Royal at 15's but i'm looking around for better,,,Snipers is alittle unders at 6.50 ,,but 9's is ok,,, lets not forget Mitanni,,,he deserves favouritism hes fit and the wet track isnt ideal but hes not a duffer..,,hate that barrier though. I think Goldie will find it hard,,especially if Excellent is scratched because that will mean the weights will rise,,,,the lack of genuine frontrunners in this race gives her a chance to sneak a cheap sectional or 2,,so you cant leave her out at all.. still a few things to sort out,,but i'm happy with GeeIjane,,if i can get alittle better with Royal Ida i'll have a go,, Best roughie at 51 is probably smartnMighty but might be a run or 2 short.. will like the track,,and proven around it,,and in the wet. why not i'll put 20 on,,,i put $10 on October Grey awhile back at 100's so i might aswell keep the charity going.. |
Those in Brissie :) what's your predicted (state of) track condition for this Saturday please?
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Yeah alright ill stick my neck out even though ive already told you raw :P i think black ink is a huge chance, but the barrier has really messed things up. Though being the stradbroke and having a capacity field i think will ensure there will be pace up front and its going to suit the swoopers and black ink will be forced back from such a wide draw. The form behing Bentley Biscuit seems to good to ignore.
I agree with the Mr Ubiquitous tip, if this rain stays here like they are predicting it brings him right into the race. Massive chance at odds. There is gunna be a couple of scratchings with the rain so that should bring roman squire into the race. Loved the last run, and being a bog track could get up to surprise. I backed enrique a few weeks back but couldnt have it on the run last week. I couldnt argue against anything in this race so im not going to dis anyones tips for this as im sure anything could win it. |
Surely they can't possibly raise the weights now Mav after final acceptors that would be a joke. I to want nothing to do with Gold Edition the reason she is the price she is noone is real confident in running out 1400m especially with the weight she has on what is going to be a track resembling something more like the Brisbane River. She is going to be infront and it isn't very often you see a front runner win a straddie the chances diminish even more with the prospect of a heavy track as it just makes that much harder for her.
Good luck to everyone anyway tough race made even harder with all the rain |
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didnt he come from off the pace the previous race? |
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Mate it started raining where i was last night at about 645 and that was 5min from the track and it hasnt stopped since. it hasnt been pelting but there have been solid then light rain all night/day and there are no breaks in the radar for it to stop anytime soon. It is only wednesday and if it clears tomorrow and they have tomorrow arvo, friday and saturday morning in the sun then it could get to dead i guess but at the moment you would have to say worse than that. |
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Okay. thanks HW. Where's your list of webbed-footed horses located again, pharfromoz? :) |
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I live about 5 mins walk from the Eagle Farm and at this moment at 10.22pm Wed there is good steady rain. Find the webbed feet wadders (Gee I Jane,Black Ink , Snipers Bullet and Shinzig as a roughie) Wise one |
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in my opinion gold edition can race anywhere from leading to just behind midfield but i believe with the likely track conditions and the possible lack of up front runners she will either lead or take a sit. the only problem will be her ability to handle a possible wet track. although she has won on wet tracks she hasn't had that many runs on it to justify her as a genuine wet tracker. the barrier is beautiful will come into 5 with the emergencies out although with the weather may be one or two scratchings. the jackal and stormhill will probably race forward..... im unaware of stormhill's ability on rain affected tracks.....any opinions on other leaders??? |
hi Raw ,,i think the top weight has to be 57kgs,,so if excellent is scratched then the weights have to be risen,,,,,havent heard anything though so i might be wrong...
still raining steady... go geeijane :) |
Friday Creek out so that gives Snort a chance at the weights,,,was unlucky last start and the track and distance suits....
The track if there isnt more rain could be a dead tomorrow,,,you couldnt get a better drying day than today with the strong winds,,, a note on Mitanni,,,i thought Shane was super hard on him last start where he cut him him to ribbons the finall furlong...Shane being one of the more stronger riders..He seemed to be full of life the other day at Breakfast with stars though so he might have needed a real good hitout to top him off as Shane was easy on him the start prior...the new trainer would have liked to see where the horse was at aswell.. I like the idea of moving the race earlier,,this is good news for Goldie as it might be a tough day to lead them up..i'd pay close attention to the earlier races to see if there is a bias.. Wow hasnt Snipers been backed,,couldnt beat a good class 6 horse last start and could jump fav tomorrow in a group1..it wasnt his last run that gives him a chance here its his run against Mutawhajid and Goldie last prep where with luck he should have beaten them both...I think hes unders even with Williams aboard ,,but the 26's around early would have been nice,, |
Mav on Sniper's Buller he is a classy little horse that can handle any conditions and in fact i think likes it wet better than dry, he has run in some of the best company in sydney and run very well and at the weights i feel he is thrown in there with 50kgs, I had the feeling early in the week he would jump fav which was the reason I jumped on early.
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what a horrible day in brisie,,freeezing and windy (could be worse ie Sydney) ,,,,,i'll be at the track and even though i have 10,000 reasons to be cheering GeeIJAne home ..if she does get beaten i hope Goldie can do it,,it will be a huge achievement and a bit of history..
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