Simple Leader System.
 

All,

Lets try some pace analysis.

According to some stats I have read 45% of the first 3 runners around the first turn are going to win. Sounds interesting if you can find a sole leader. So how are we going to determine that. We could use a pay resource (something I frown upon) or we could try and piece something together ourselves.

Some form guides have information on where the horse is running at various stages of the race. You COULD use the race(form) guides at race net or exp_ert form.

I am going to assume exp_ert form cause it is quicker but it won't be as exact as using race net (most rides have comments beside them for you to work it out).

First off give every horse a point.

Look at the last 3 races for the horse (where there is info on positions) and assign points as follows:

1. Leading at 800m = 1 points
2. Leading at 400m = 2 points
3. 2nd at 800m = 1 points
4. 2nd at 400m = 2 points
5. 3rd at 800m = 1 point
6. 3rd at 400m = 1 point

If the horse ran 1st or 2nd at 800m and 400m in all 3 runs then give a bonus 2 points.

The maximum a horse can get is 11 points.

We are looking for clear leaders that have at least a 4 point advantage over the nearest rival.

For instane Gosford today Double Dip scored 11 points. Nearest Rival had 5 points. Double Dip went on to win.

Good Luck

Look at the Caulfield 1400m races - leaders dominate when the rail is true. When it's out backmarkers have a better chance.

Go read Beyer's books if you havent already. lots of discussion about Pace, leaders etc

This might help you out Wespi: Some sole leaders

IPSWICH
r6/11,14 [If one of them is scr. you have a sole leader:-) ]
r7/1,8
r8/8,11
MORPHETTVILLE
r2/1
r7/1
r8/1,11
SANDOWN-HILLSIDE
r2/11,12
r3/9
r7/8
BELMONT PARK
r1/1
r3/7
r7/2
r8/1

Could be a nice place system by backing leaders for the place in races with 1 or 2 leaders only.

IPSWICH 'good track'
r6/11,14
r7/1,8 [2nd. 5.40p]
r8/8 [3rd. 2.00p],11
MORPHETTVILLE 'good track'
r2/1 [2nd. 1.70p]
r7/1
r8/1 [3rd. 2.00p],11
SANDOWN-HILLSIDE 'slow track'
r2/11,12 [2nd. 1.90p]
r3/9
r7/8 [3rd. 4.10p]
BELMONT PARK 'good track'
r1/1 [2nd. 2.00p]
r3/7 [3rd. 1.70p]
r7/2 [3rd. 2.60p]
r8/1 [3rd. 1.70p]

Backing races with one leader only for the place: O/L 9.00 R 13.80 Pr 4.80
Backing all of the above for the place: O/L 16.00 R 25.10 Pr 9.10

Leaders for today Mon.
GUNNEDAH
3/3
MURTOA
3/10
7/15E, 16E
9/1
10/8
NARRANDERA
4/4
-------------------------------------

Crash ,

Could you tell me and others where you got that info to determine your selections for yesterday and today please.

Wombat2

A subscribed service and unfortunately due to management rules I can't give that info. here as they don't advertise here [no free plugs].

Wombat2

What you can do, is go through a horses previous runs and see where they were traveling at the turn. If it's 70% in the lead, it's a leader.

A bit of effort involved but I thought I'd just let you know that method anyway. Ignore 2yr. olds as they haven't had enough runs to work out anything definite about their running style.

Wesmip

Reading all your threads with great interest

Let me know if this info would help finding leaders etc

2 09-06-2007 SW H S 2100 54.5 D JOCKEY 7 7 1.3 Hcp 500 2.8

The information above came from a free form source.

It does offer info on where the horse was running in the race. Explanations below.

after the jockey's name (in this case "D JOCKEY" I took the name out) there is a 7 and a 7
That means 7th in the field at 400m mark
7th in the field at 800m markt
1.3 lengths from the winner at the post
In a Handicap race
500 is the rating
2.8 was the price at the tote.

The first figure is it's placing in this race (2nd)

You can access all that info about leaders,on pace runners and backmarkers thru the Sportsman much cheaper than subscrining to any kind of rating service.

My only comment would be to wait a few races and observe the track bias,and which type of runners are suited on the day.

That system works quite well on the trots and dogs,and the s/r is much higher albeit at the top end of the market.

However,that's another post I am considering puting up.

[QUOTE=go4it]You can access all that info about leaders,on pace runners and backmarkers thru the Sportsman much cheaper than subscrining to any kind of rating service.
QUOTE]

Yes, the sportsman will give you that info for Sat. runners and Wed. runners too [if it still sells a mid-week paper]. Not all meetings are covered and the cost is greater than a decent form service and you have to get on ya bike and go and buy the damn thing and end up with pages all over the place doing the form.

The Sportsman doesn't cover every meeting in Aust [and NZ] 7 days a week, nor supply adjusted times for the last 10 starts and a lot of other missing info. like live 3 tab odds at the click of a mouse and a heap of other things. It's a terrible waste of trees too!

Different places come up with different ways of classifying a leader. I guess it will all depend on what service you get.

Yes, you right there wespi. Like ratings and pp odds. There is a subjective element involved in deciding running style for any horse younger than 4yrs. old. and where noted, running style for most 2yr. olds should be ignored outright, regardless of source.

Another big problem is jockeys who ignore a horses running style and trainers instructions!

Crash,
quite bemused by your comment about how Sportsman can't supply live TAB odds.Tell me a paper that can.
As for cost as against paying for a service,I wouldn't know what a decent (or bad)service was,as I have never payed for one,but some that I have seen advertised or recieved the"glossies"in the mail far outweigh my cost of the Saturday Sportsman.
I don't bet midweek,only Saturday Sydney and Melbourne.
I don't go back 10 starts,5 is enough for me.
You get Zipform ratings Zipform liftout with all sorts of valuable info at a glance,jockey/trainer s/r,sectional times,and a comprehensive trackwork section.
What is the"heaps of other stuff you need?"
Not having a dig at you here,so please don't take offence.
If you subscribe to a decent service and it works for you,good onya.
I just prefer to put in the hard yards and back my own judgement,not someone else's that I have to pay for.
I don't bet with the TAB anymore,so I don't need their live odds anyway.
As any serious punter knows(and I'm sure your'e one)if you don't put in the time and effort you will never win long term.
Which also to me means keeping meticulous records of every bet.
How many punters do you know who do that?

go4it,

I used to use the the Sportsman for many years and it's certainly a good form, but the old eyesight isn't what it used to be and I'd need a very good light source, reading glasses AND a magnifying glass to wade through a lot of the Sportsman's tiny font size nowadays. When young, we always ignore the strain we put our eyes through and think sharp eyesight is forever.

I only change to on-line form because of eyesight issues that started kicking in with age [caused by too many years reading newsprint form info. font size?]. I'd never go back now even if I regained 20/20 vision. It's the difference between driving an old Holden and a new BMW 7 series.

On-line form suits my eyesight fine. I can copy and paste any info. I want to 'notepad' [a bit hard with newsprint] or copy whole pages and easily store any info I want for future use with a couple of clicks of the mouse also print out anything I want arranged anyway I want if I need to, in an easy to read font size of my choice.

If I want to go to our Local Bairnsdale country meeting, with a few clicks I can head off there with a comprehensive form guide, neatly printed up on A4 with as much or as little form info. in it as I want.

Sure, form services aren't for everyone but they have moved light years ahead of what old fashioned newsprint form offers. I've also found my returns have improved way beyond what the on-line service costs. It pays for itself.

Crash,

good explanation,thanx.

Just for the record,my eyes aint' what they used to be either,and I do have a degree of difficulty reading the small print,even in good light and with my glasses on.

Maybe it's time I considered changing to your approach.

I'd take the old Holden anyday.
Cheaper to run and fix, and far more reliable - but then I'm biased ;)

However, I currently drive an old LTD (1980's version), which is like driving a 12 foot boat across Bass Strait with a crosswind :D

Eyesight
 

Hi guy’s,
Why don’t you look into improving your eyesight by exercising them? There are wonderful instructions how to do it, cost nothing only 5 –10 min per day. (Google) or your local library. Get all the info you need.
It helped me a lot. The only downside is the discipline; it must be done every day, morning and evening.
If you have time for forum and betting, shouldn’t have a problem. Been doing it for 15 years, 5 min in the morning and 5 while laying in you bad before you go to sleep, my vision is just getting better and better.
Cost nothing to have a go.

go4it,

Well you can always access for a single 24hrs. for $5 to check out my service. In fact if you only follow Sat. your better off getting a booklet of 5 or 10 single 24hr. visits if you like the service [cheaper than a monthly 24/7] and access Friday sometime for 24hrs. to do Sat. form. For free you can read up carefully on what everything on [inclusive] offer within the service is and means. Examples provided.

My form service just provides info., it doesn't tell me what to back. It's basic [you can get a lot more bells and whistles at a price from other services but it's rubbish info as far as I'm concerned] and the cheapest around but more than enough info. for my needs. If you want to know the site, just e/m me: akabilk AT internode DOT on DOT net DOT com

I had an eye retinal detachment [eye outer tearing across itself at the rear of the eyeball] several yrs. ago and have been doing eye exercises ever since. One of them was to avoid very small print in poor light! :-))

check out the ONLINE version of the Sportsman
 

I just read how you guys struggle a little with reading the Sportsman paper because of the small print. Just thought I'd let you know that I subscribe to the weekend Sportsman online, so from every Thursday arvo/evening I can download the Sportsman paper to my computer. This means I don't have to have tonnes of newspapers lying around all the time, I don't have to visit numerous newsagents trying to track down a copy of the paper, and also I can access any of the past editions I've paid for from my computer anytime I want. And for anyone who struggles to read the small print, there's a zoom in/zoom out button to help make everything more readable. You can also buy single versions of the online editions too, if needed, and the price is always the standard $5 per paper. I've been a subscriber to the online version of the Sportsman for over a year now, and don't have a single complaint with the service, and in case you were wondering, no I don't work for The Sportsman. Check it out.

Sounds better than chopping down trees!

SILVER AND SAND.

Check out the WIZARD online as well.

This also allows you to access the FREE form briefs (under "REWARDS) on a DAILY basis ( with proffessionally asessed prices).

Cheers.
darky.

coal fired power
 

duno crash, wouldn’t exactly call my pc's "environmentally friendly", & dont get me started on the printers!

Of course mate.
I was just saying hello as haven't seen you around for awhile.

Hi Crash.

I dont post much these days .The older I get the less interested I become in horse racing.
Too much else to do in this lovely part of the world.

Must admit its been fun over the years though .

Good luck to those who still find it as mentally stimulating as I used to do.

Cheers.
darky

ps.Say hello to Zoe for me.