Greening Up Position
 

I don't know if anyone is familiar with greening up a position.

Essentially, as I understand it if I have a lay bet @ $4.00 for $100 stake matched and a back bet @ $5.00 for a stake of $100 matched, I stand to win $96.50 (less commission) should the horse win, but nothing should the horse lose.

By dividing the profit on this horse by the current odds, and firing a lay bet into the market, I reduce my profit, but guarantee a smaller profit no matter the result.

The problem arises, when I have multiple matched bets....

Let's say I have the above stakes matched before greening up my position, but I also have two other lay bets matched at lower odds, but no other back bets matched.

How do I green up the one position, and let the others ride????

In other words, I am reducing my liability on the outstanding wagers by the cemented profit.

I know Bet Angel has a built in greening up feature, which I use, but in this sort of case, it won't work (as I understand it).

Any ideas???

My first thought, is just to manually calculate the profit on the two matched bets, and fire another lay bet into the market at the profit divided by the current odds, but hasn't this been already partially done with the newer lay bets matched?

Confused.

Chrome

Aren't you making $25.00 less commission?

BET: $100 @ $5.00 = $500
LAY: $125 @ $4.00 = $500

You keep the $25.00 whatever the result.

That's how it works isn't it?

I don't believe so, I have a free bet of $100.

If the horse loses, I lose nothing, if it wins, I win $100, or $96.50 less commission.

The profit on the $100 back bet @ $5.00 is $400 (386 less comm)
The profit on the $100 lay bet @ $4.00 is $100 (96.50 less comm)

So if the horse wins the race I win $400 but payout $300 on the lay - I win $100

If the horse loses the race, I lose $100 on the back stake, but win $100 on the lay stake - no win/ no loss.

Essentially I have a free bet on the horse of $100 @ evens :)

Now to green up my position I divide the profit ($100) by the lay odds ($4.00) and have a $25.00 lay bet on the horse in addition. Thus whichever horse wins, I win money.

A lot less, but no risk. - yes, AFTER greening up I win $25.00.

But what about the other lay bets matched?

Read that all again

Liability has been reduced by $25.00 hasn't it? Is that what you mean? :confused:



Or you could have layed it for $125 @ $4 first up and saved yourself a step. :confused:

You're quite right Angry Pixie, but only if you knew in advance which bets would be matched or they were both already going to be matched.

I fire about 10 back and 10 lay bets on a horse at once.

It's virtually impossible (for me) to read which way the market will go and if only one side will ever get matched.

So when a back/lay bet gets matched, I green up that position alone and let the others ride.

The reasoning behind this is that I'm effectively getting better odds on the outstanding matched bets by using the greening up as leverage.

perhaps try the higher betangel product? havent looked for a while, but there was a pay for product/advanced type product...maybe email the guy instead of purchasing???

Chrome

I use Fairbot which allows you to set-up trading positions. So if your lay gets matched a back is automaticaly placed at a profit point you nominate. I know thats not quite as complex as what your talking about, but if you look in the right places it's available for free. Much better than Bet Angel Basic.

Thanks for the tip, just got Fairbot full ;)

Be sure to update to the latest version v1.92

Thanks Chrome , Angry and others for convincing me once and for all to stay away from this one.
Just like stocks and shares I'm convinced those that make a quid is at the expense of 97%+ of losers who nothing about the market.

I'll stick to what I know, then at least it's only me to blame! (though I'm not planning on losing, and if I do, I can tell you I'll have another free round the world trip , well kinda out of it) you know what I'm talking about Chrome don't ya?

Partypooper,

Yes, I know what you mean about the trip ;)

This old boy has learned some new tricks though. I'm not for one second becoming a "trader" per se, but there are ways of further leveraging the odds in your favour.

Imagine for a moment that every second place bet you had was a free bet, or even a no risk bet, how would that improve your bottom line?

Effectively, you can get better odds by leveraging your position. The odds actually stay the same, but you've had a hundred dollar bet and it only cost you $50.00 for the same return, or you had a bet that cannot lose whichever horse wins.

By taking advantage of the swings in markets, you can green up and be a bookie, so you win a percentage no matter what the outcome is.

When playing with this though, you must have a stop loss in place....something I learned the hard way :(

I am using this in conjunction with another method to boost profits, and apart from lessons learned, it's working very well indeed.

I also have another wee trick up my sleeve, when I get beaten by laying a favourite, I lay it next time out....invariably I get my money back over the many favourites that don't win the second time. Only a handful win and the one's that do are pretty much shorter odds :D

Chrome

I've tweaked the market refresh rate on Fairbot to less than a second. That really helps with predicting the swings - you can see the momentum build with money being matched and added to each side of the ledger. The quicker the money moves the faster the price changes. It's particularly evident on the UK markets with the huge liquidity over there.

Poop, yes you can get you pants pulled down on occasion. I'm really a lay'em and be done with it bloke, but as Chrome says there are some very real advantages to playing both sides.

My personal opinion, is that running around chasing a slim profit, means that one mistake can cost you a whole day or week's work. This is why I don't like conventional trading. You can put stop losses into place, but then you're only getting a certain loss on occassions.

The snipping of slim margins means a lot of work for little reward.

However, where this comes into it's own, is when you have back or lay bets already matched in the market and the opposing price is in front of you at no risk.

That's where the additional benefit is, at no risk.

This basically means that if I back every favourite at Bookies prices, and the price comes in, I turn a small profit, already. If the price comes in and I cement a no loss situation, the odds further turn in my favour.

More favourites win when the price comes in, than out....but the odds are worse, therefore I'm making a no risk profit more often, than when the price drifts. I just have to ensure I make at least enough on each trade to counter the losing bets.

I have changed to Bettrader Pro which is free with the grid interface.
There are lots of entertaining demo videos.

I've come across a much safer trading angle, as anyone who trades might notice that some markets are volatile and the flow of money is often bogus money put up to drive the prices in the wanted direction and then the money is cancelled!

Ever had a trade go radically or even partially against you?

A stop loss can counter this, but so often the stop loss is triggered, and you lock in a loss, only to see the price go in the direction you wanted seconds later.

So you start to trade again, but again you get caught.

This doesn't have to happen too often to subtract from all profits previously made.

My amended strategy is to pick an overall movement, that is almost guaranteed (well kind of) to occur.

Instead of trading for one or two ticks profit, you can trade up to 10 ticks.....nice.

Here's the outline of how I'm doing it with great success recently.

Disclaimer: You must trade small amounts, and only in the last 5 minutes of the race (especially in low liquidity races).
You must also only trade to back first, and lay later. The exposure of getting caught out on lays is too great. At least with a back bet left in the market, you risk one unit only.

1. With five minutes to go, check out the odds on the favourite (must be a clear favourite) with the online bookmakers. Take no notice of the fluctuations, only the last price being offered.

2. Go to Betfair and compare the odds on the favourite. If the favourite is showing greater than 10% better on price, back it.

3. Place a corresponding Lay bet at the bookies price plus 10%.

4. If the price doesn't get matched within a few seconds of race start, cancel it and take the next best lay price, providing it is below your back price. If it isn't ....let the bet ride!

5. If it gets matched, hedge the profit for no risk (green up).

Example: Murray's Son R9 Forbes was showing $3.00 with the online bookies and was trading @ $4.10 on Betfair. As it was over $3.30 I placed a back bet @ $4.10.

I placed a corresponding lay bet @$3.30 which was matched with a minute to go, (the price actually went to $3.05 just before they jumped).

The result...0.70c for every dollar invested, profit.

You'll be amazed how often this occurs, and when it doesn't go your way, you have a bet riding at least 10% higher than online bookmakers prices....

Give it a shot ;)

Oh yes Chrome I hear what you are saying alright, but it's not for me, somehow I would come a cropper I just know it!!

Chrome

Did you have any trouble downloading the BetTrader?
3 days of trying, 3 days of emails between James of Racing Traders and myself, 3 days of errors, 3 days of trying different things, and still I can't get it to work. What's worst of all is the 3 days of a mate telling me how much it's making him.

Mark,

I just tried and redownloaded it fine.
What error are you getting?

Download it from the racing traders website.

It is by far the best tool out there (for me).
The options are hugely valuable, but it is also the most complex to get knowledge of, however, they have over 120 online videos.

I've used fairbot, bet angel and a few others, but this is something head and shoulders above the rest.

It will place your orders at prescheduled times, stop loss, bookmaker feature, and numerous other features like global fill or kill and timer bets. The money indicators are superb. You can see in a blink of an eye the total matched on the event, the total matched on the horse and the actual last traded price.

There may be better products out there, but for what I do, it's brilliant.

I get nothing by recommending it - I use the free version with the grid interface, as that's all I need.I don't trade for one or two ticks profit like a lot of the guys, I trade on the overall flow of money.

If one horse decreases in price, four others will increase ;)

If you still can't get it Mark, I'll upload it to my site for you. It's the free version (demo) but has all the features, just not the ladder, so I'm not breaching any copyright, in fact I'm sure they'd like me to do it for you.

Download it here

Tested and downloaded fine.

P.S. Mark, I'm sure your aware, that if you got the best price offered on every horse in the field the over round is 130%. If you got the average, the over round is 117% :D

thanks chrome ..i had a little vvideo tour and had a look at the hedging..the guy made it look like like money for jam ,surely it couldnt be that easy??..so if anybody who uses that tool cant lose it does it all for you ...must be a catch somewhere or does it cost 20000 to buy??

Thanks for the link Chrome, and I like your new idea.
Cheers

You're quite right, he does make it look too easy in my opinion and it isn't quite that easy in practice. However, he has turned 200 pounds into 100,000 in a year, which is verifiable by his betfair printout (which I scrutinised). And also the videos are really how to use the features, not how to trade videos.

He has been doing this for such a long time that he reads the markets incredibly accurately, but it's not looking at graphs and volume alone, he has a knack for it. That's where beginners come unstuck - including myself.

All that aside, he is the real deal, I researched him, and what he does works.

People in the UK, not associated with him, but buyers of his software have been to his seminars and not one person has anything but praise for it.
It's all on completely different unrelated and well known forums, so you know it's not all hype.

It's not for me really, but his software is, as I trade differently.

The grid interface is FREE

The ladder interface, you simply buy minutes as you need them.

By standards of similar software, it's cheap!

No problem. The major hurdle we face in Australia is the low volume pools which don't correct themselves to trading levels until it's almost too late.

Even Saturdays here, are like a country Ireland meeting (volume wise).

Let's hope they let WA in, and push the benefits of exchanges a bit more.

I simply can't trade in $5,000 pools on a Wednesday!

interesting topic...

i dabbled in all this about 1 yr ago lindsay, completely understand all you are saying and suggesting and the like.
i wondered at the time: when can we get this guy out to oz and make some real money. i considered getting hold of him and putting him on a plane myself.
thinking that liquidity would have evolved by now (it will eventually im sure).
but that didnt even concern me, was happy to stay up late and become a pommy racing fanatic for a while.

then of course...WA bans betfair, and here i am betting wins on low priced favs for a living using ias and behind the times tab's. (well not for a living, but you get the jist).

my own little spreadsheet is attached if interested.

i still follow major pre-post markets and write down my fantasy 'bets' etc as if id be greening up one off positions. this to me would be the way i would do it.

my particular favourite was picking Oscar Perriero at 171 during last years
TDF (im a big cycling fan), and then "laying" him, so to speak, at $2, a day before Landis filled himself full of drugs and won that miracle stage.

anyway, that doesnt matter, what matters is their is surely such simple and easy money to be made doing such, at low risk.

a recent example:
prior to weekend, Marasco at 11 for cox plate. after his run, $6. so easy to predict such things. same with haradasun.
jap horses for cups at 20.30.40-1....after weekend, all at 15's of thereabouts.
what could be easier?

problem still revolves around aust.liquidity and fact the lay price is often many points above back price still. this smooths out as event gets closer and volume gets greater.

anyway, love the discussion, keen to hear more as you evolve.

Chrome

Thanks for the link, I do appreciate it.
However it still won't work for me. There's obviously some sort of block in my 6 month old computer. I can download the program, have everything look right, but the box where you put in your liability (bookmaker) doesn't work. My cursor stays an arrow so I can't even get a look in.

James (racingtraders) has given up on me because he doesn't have the problem so he can't replicate it and look for a fix.

Mark, do you have the latest java installed, and are you by any chance using the dreaded Vista?

Lindsay, I'm no computer ************ so don't know about Java, and I've never heard of Vista. I'm on XP. (as far as I know).

What's wrong with e-x-p-e-r-t ??????

Funny that, I also had the thought of getting him out here for a Seminar, even if I were the only attendee, it would be well worth it.
I'm sure if enough people paid for his airfare, accomodation and expenses, he'd consider it. And let me say, I wouldn't do this unless I were absolutely sure, it would be worth it.
The independant reviews are all glowing, his seminars are always booked out, and the only unhappy customers, are those that can't attend because of lack of vacancies. I think that speaks volumes.

As to liquidity, that will plague us for a very long time unfortunately.

a) There just isn't the same population
b) It's way too early for the UK guys to get involved in a big way
c) spring Carnival is about the only time the volumes are any where near reasonable.

You can pick it, when the overround is still sitting at 118% with 5 minutes to go. UK markets will be less than 105% with 15 minutes to go.
The problem is, as you state, the complete price discrepancy between back and lay. You can't trade with confidence in that kind of market.

Well, maybe some can, but I can't :(

So, the upshot is, I am now trading on the UK circuit and 1/10th of my race investment on Saturdays in Australia.

However, because of the anomolies in the market, I'm always scanning the low liquidity weekday markets for opportunities (such as I described a few posts ago).

When we finally get in-running trading, a whole new world will be available and the potential for trading multiplied hugely.

OK, XP is fine.

Go here...

http://www.java.com/en/download/installed.jsp

It will tell you if you have the latest java installed.

The program is built on java platform, so I'd say you need to install the latest jave from that site and reboot and try BetTrader Pro again.

If it still doesn't work, go to the windows update site and download all the updates.

With 35 minutes to go for the first race in the UK, there is more in the pool than when they jump on a Saturday here.
The market percentage is already 103.2% and every horse apart from the two rank outsiders is only one "tick" difference between the back and lay price.

Lindsay, I'm in !!!!

My wife suggested going to tools, internet options, advanced, and seeing if anything there was not ticked that I might need.

I ticked the box that allows downloads without verification. Right or wrong it now works.

Thanks again for you help.

Great stuff, still get the latest Java if you can, I just updated mine and it runs a lot smoother now.

i think this discussion illustrates a very good point about betfair in australia.

notwithstanding 3 x population of UK (hence bigger pools).

it says to me, we as a nation, are not using betfair correctly and are way too simplistic or basic in our thinkings and approaches.
we are still media fed by gov supported tabs total **** about "you can back a horse to lose, people will be paying off jockeys" and other such banana republic ideas. this is what people (the public) think betfair is.

half informed punters, in the main, probably think "sure its a decent way to obtain better odds than the tabs/bookies/whoever they use". and that might be their involvement with it.

yet anyone inclined to do the research, put in the time, educate themselves....can see a world of opportunity opening up. greening up, laying,
automated betting, stop loss positions, volume tracking and other such things that chrome alludes to from time to time are all sound and solid everyday financial trading opportunities that a stock market player undertakes. and they are revered in doing so!!
i dont think its just UK population creating volume, i think a lot of it has to do with our simplistic view on things holding our volume back.
betfair is young...perhaps the tide will turn. perhaps there are enough out there making money who simply dont care about investigating what might be better ways. perhaps one day i will be allowed to use it again in WA.....that in itself says a lot about our faults.

There are a few old school heavy punters just starting to discover the advantages of Betfair. It's a catch 22 situation though, the low liquidity is holding them back. They are using it as an additional edge rather than the sole investment portal.

In the UK, Betfair has a much higher profile and has been marketed better, so many young traders have discovered the opportunites. There are a hell of a lot of traders using Betfair there. There is not the Government opposition either, that they have faced here.

Traders (not punters) have not really discovered Betfair yet - they don't know about it. The one's that have, have more than likely considered it a gambling site rather than a trading opportunity.

I'm sure liquidity will improve dramatically when this trading facility is discovered by traders rather than punters, and word spreads.

I forsee the upturn in volume, coming not from punters, but from traders who know nothing about horseracing.

It's really a matter of time.

Chrome

Thanks for the BetTrader Pro tip. I'd had a look at previous versions of this but didn't like the "Ladder Interface", and the timed usage model. The new version with the "Grid Interface" looks good, and you can't complain about the price, although a few too many flashing doo-dads so I've turned these off. Will make alot of use of the timed bets/lays, but some of the other tools seem a bit incomplete to me. The "Price Chaser" could be really useful but there's no way to set an upper or lower limit. The "Drip Feed" - great tool again but no upper or lower limit

Have to agree it's streets ahead of Fairbot. I'll put it through it's paces on Saturday

Instead of using the last traded price you can nominate a price, then fill or kill and then schedule a timer bet with fill or kill.

But I get your point, there is no between.

The one feature I do like, is you can specify the bet based on account balance, that way the bets only get matched if your account balance is going up ;)

The flashing lights were also a bit nasty, but now I find them valuable, you can see if the matched amounts are all going down or haphazard (red, yellow, green, red, yellow, red, green, green).

A typical example of scanning the low liquidity markets, R3 Bendigo Sky Devil is $1.70 with the bookies and $2.04 on betfair, that's 20% better, so I've backed it, it went to $1.90 with the bookies, but I'm still ahead of them.

It went up as high as $2.00 with the bookies, but came back to $1.80, so I know the reaction will come on Betfair.

On the deathknock I get matched @ $1.95 to lay it.

Profit guaranteed.

That's 9 ticks profit, just using logic rather than ladders.

Of course the favourite ran nowhere, and that's why greening up is a must.

I've taken the program off my site now, as it was only ever there to help Mark who couldn't get it to work. Anyone interested should be getting it from the proper site.

im thinking only just at the mo..coz of the shaz.ive been lookin at the pommy6 races and so far ive noticed if one is to follow prices ,<2min ....might be the way to go

Hi Chrome I use Fairbot and it has a "Greening Up" feature - This allows you to equalize a current profit or a current loss across all selections. Its the button after the name, it will light up green just press it and it will do all the calculations for you.