The return to Flemington
 

With the return to Flemington just one day away i'm sure most of you here must be getting excitied. I think it is time we discuss the meeting and share our views. It will be interesting to see how the track plays.

I have not been through the form throughly as yet however I put forward some comment.

Race 4 - Flash Coupe. Really liked the way he finished off last start when resuming. Vlad Duric said he was not wound up for thatrun due to the EI. I think the 1400m will suit and looks a real chance. Only worry is that he may not be up to the class of this race, this is his chance to show. TAB sportsbet put up $13 yesterday afternoon (which I missed out on as I could not get there) and was trimmed right into $6 today.

Race 6 - This looks to be a great race, with heaps of chances. I can make a case for atleast half the field. Just depends on what price you have rated. I think that Emjay Hussy is good value at $12, showed alot of promise in its only start beating some smart horses and has since shown to be a hot form race. I think Sleek Chasis was a great run last start and will be very hard to beat. And one at a good price is Zizou $15, is much better than it went last start.

Race 7 - Looks a race in two, Marasco and Apache Cat. I think that Marasco must win this race. If ever it is going to win this is the race. He should be suited at Flemginton and will be given every chance by Beadmen The other outside chance in Tawqueet.


Race 9 - Master O'Reilley should be able to win this. Is on target for the Cup. Does not look a strong field so hopefully can be a good finish for the punters.

Post your thoughts and views of anything related to the ruturn to Flemington.

Jeff

Race 1 - Pass

Race 2 - I'll be on Riva San if he's supported on track

Race 3 - Molotov looks a good each way bet. has a superb second up record and at this stage in his prep 1700m looks ideal. that, Craig Williams is in fine form and the race looks weak.

Race 4 - Im going to have to stick with Orange County. He's dissapointed for me his last few starts but ive been on him both starts....... cant get off him now. but i cant recommend him to anyone else

Race 5 - I like the toppie Brom Felinity.... hasnt raced at his best for a while now and second up might be short of a run but he does liek flemington. id label Devil Moon a huge danger but am worried about the 20 barrier even though a back marker

Race 6 - I can't go past Royal Asscher. Been so impressive although a little inconsistent. brilliant on her day

Race 7 - I'm not brave enough to say its a race in two but it does look that way. Marasco by a nose

Race 8 - Best bet of the day Divine Madonna. Absolutely loves Flemington. solid first up record but thats my only query with her

Race 9 - don't like this race but for a tip take the consistent Bugatti Royale and a chance to the bottomweight Monte Cassino. Master O'Reilly a solid fave and the danger


Ive loved the EI outbreak.......Makes hella harder to pick winner in 20 horse fields but i love seeing 20 horse fields. and in sydney great to see all fields in double figures....a lot better than the usual 5-8 horse fields

i agree im really looking forward to flemington back up and running again tomorrow.

best bet of the day has to be marasco, this is the race for him, ive never backed him before so im hoping i can come in at the right time.

other than that the races seem very tough to pick, should be alot to watch for later races though, blue monday, divine madonna and also roman squire will be interesting to see how it goes in melbourne against this class.

all in all will be good to watch a great days racing on one of our best racetracks.

All a bit dodgy tomorrow. I won't be surprised to see Freedman with his own training facilities cleaning up on the day. Nothing ran very fast last week probably due to training problems. Miss Finland [17 lengths outside the record for the distance] would have been thrashed by Shadow, the 80/1 Donkey that got up over the same distance in one of the early races. So I'd be expecting slow times again this week.

My couple of Black bookers are Temple Hills in r3 [box 2,5,7 for quin, exacta or tri.].

Orange county in r4 but I think a bit further for this horse [box 1,2,3,9]

r6 Chinchilla Rose for the win.

r9 Red Lord a close up 1/2 length 2nd. to Ice Chariot last start for the win ....my outsider for the day!
r9 Master O'relly for the win and box both with the Freedman No.1 Cefalu and the Fuzz by Hayes for the quin, exacta and/or tri.

Don't forget to have a go at the big jackpot first 4 in the Bobbie Lewis [r8]. The standouts are pretty obvious.

Good Luck!

Will anyone be heading to the track to see what it all looks like? I for one will be. Pitty about the EI that we won't be able to make the most of it with the restriction zone in place.

I also don't mind Rose Ceremony in the first. I have been a fan of this one since he start. Will be fitter for its first up run and will go very close. Will be at a reasonable price as the fav will be short.


For those who are keen on Devine Madonna, I am wary. The weight is a real worry and first up last time in found it hard under the weight, she will be jumping from the fence as they will have the barriers on the outside fence. I think she is a real chance, however i think the 4.6 is a little short considering the risks.

Swick or Shadoways will win it I think.

No doubt you got that off Phil. Miss Finland could win 10 in a row including the Cox Plate and he still wouldn't think she was any good. Times aren't everything. If you criticise Miss Finland because of her slow time, what does that say about Haradasun and El Segundo which finished behind her???

You can't do much more than win. Regardless of the time Miss Finland run her name still goes into the winners book.

good days betting tomorrow

Archie Senior to win,,,over the consistant Orange County....Bird Dancer for 3rd
took the 4s on Betstar,,i doubt he'll get any higher than that,,

Sleek Chassis,,down the straight,,i like these long striding horses down the stretch,,he can just balance up and rip into it..

Roman Squire is another that might enjoy the straight,,,,hes one to watch,,if you have the video's watch this fine looking animal stride,,10's is good e/w value ...
not sure Divine is treated that well in the weights but i love her,,she owes me for the Donnie,,

If theres the pace i'm predicting in the Decjuba then Temple Hills a good show..very unlucky last start at a vital time..

Cancanelle in an open Lets Elope....Master Orielly one to watch in the last...looks to good for them...not sure about this Fuzz they're talking about .
Master Orielly the obvious in the last,,,doubt a price..Magnetic might be worth an e/w if the odds are right...



Brissie is a very dangerous affair tomorrow,,looks like the track will be atleast slow,,Colonial Lass the best...Malta,,, /BloodnBone/Very Canny the best trifecta of the day...
Roscos Circus e/w even from that barrier..
Fat Possum in the last worth a look,,wow 15's in the paper,,
Back little A Coome in the Jock Challenge,,

Sydney,,,Posadas and Hoystar the 2 i'm interested in..

Adelaide ,,Sensational Toy...

ps...If you like the roughies,,check out Playground Express brissie race 6,,,,very strange horse that works like a superstar,,,been competitive in open class,,,the barrier is ideal as he hates the crowding at the start,,,gets back,,,open track ,,,could be 40's...

Good Luck all :)

Good Luck Mav.......

Phil's opinion and mine agree with the facts of the day last Saturday [SLOW times!] So what???
If you have no racing opinion for this thread Sportz, don't use it to snip at my heels [Bark, Bark!], it's not a good look.


From my records of the day:

[track record for 1400m: 1.21.20]
r1/1400m/Gabbidon 1.25.51
r2/1400m/Shadow 1.23.29*
r3/1400m/Seafarer 1.22.52*
r8/1400m/Miss Finland 1.24.58
* Both would have beaten Miss Finland, Haradasun and El Segundo [unplaced but fastest sectional] on the day by many lengths.

The only race that ran time was:
r6/1700m/Ice Chariot 1.42.19 [record 1.41.42].

Like I've already said, training has been out of whack for most horses, not that Miss Finland, Haradasun and El Segundo where donkeys. Just that on the day they all would have been beaten by one!

Fair point you make there. But you would have to say that most trainers are on a level playing with not being able to train there horeses, and with the big trainers having their own private facilities stables like Hayes and Freedman are at an advantage.

Maby this race was just slowly run.

Yes, of course your right Jeff. I just thought they were interesting results for the day. Nothing more to read into it.

I do think all the shouting about making the Memsies a G1 is a bit immature, as is reading too much into [regardless of the reasonable excuses] Miss Finland's performance in this WFA. She was 3.38 sec outside the record, which is only about 20 lengths. IMHO I think the unplaced El Segundo is a better horse.

R4 - 4 Archie Senior
Also took the 4's on offer yesterday - next best for mine are 1,3,5,9

R6 - 4 Diplomatic Force
Really like the look of Diplomatic Force in this, last run was really good and I really like it as my best Eachway bet of the day.... 3,5,7,10

R9 - 8 Master O'reilly / 12 The Fuzz
Looks a good race between these two, leaning towards The Fuzz with willo and the weight advantage. Like a few ruffies in this as well.... 7, 9,10,15, 16

Good Luck to all today....

i tad rich i think ;)

race 2: I like the look of the two filies here. Riva San has been very impressive in its short career, drawn well, but will be short. El Daana got home well against a few good ones last start, drawn wide but shoul enjoy the 1400. Oronero is another that should like the distance, a real eye catcher behind husonic last start when struck a bit of traffic, should be good value. and Pins on Parade looks the class horse, will go close again
1,7,11,12

race 3: Temple Hills can't seem to find the line but should be thereabouts again. Blessed for a bit of value but tough ask 2nd up. Molotov could definitely pull a big one out here, should be better after the first up run and looks very nice
4,7,12

race 4: Flash coupe was promising last start is good value, consistent type. Danever should improve on recent form, likes the distance and is another over the odds. Orange County looks suited to this as well, might get that breakthrough
3,6,9

i'll be back with more a bit later

Not worth the time thinking about the amount of hypocrisy oozing from the comment........

Anyway back to my racing opinion.....

Race 7-2 Apache Cat - 1,3,6,7 - don't like how Marasco take so long to wind up
Race 8-2 Let Go Thommo - Good Eachway value (for obvious reasons, but prepared to take the others on) - 1,4,5,12,13

Good Luck to all...

Still very happy to back Sleek Chassis ..
Roman Sqiure 10's fixed ... he just cant afford to get to far back,,alot of these horses might get lost down this striaght ,,Shadoways and Divinne the dangers,,

playground express 10's ,fat possums 5's ,,,so much for roughies :)
dont mind the odds about Letter of Intent in the last in Sydney

It's not the first time Sportz has had a go at Phil's opinion through me. I'm a bit sick of it. He should em HIM, not snip at me!

Just out of curiosity, can anyone offer an opinion of whether the track is racing more like a Dead or Good track?

Closer to good I feel mate they are running ridiculosly slowly in the races though the back markers have no hope.

went down to the tab last nit to put 50 on Molotov, Divine Madonna and Nasrullah's Girl...... had a solid 5x5 on mav's 40/1 shot playground express lol.... good to see the odds held up. did u plunge it???

Thanks for that Raw.
 

Maybe it's a lack of training that's slowing the horses down. Or maybe they've been over-irrigating the new track, as it certainly can't be rated a Dead track because of rain. Melbourne's had less than a total of an inch of rain since the start of August.

great start the day, got the quinella in race 2 and 3 and won a bit on Molotov as well

race 5: Bellini Rose has drawn terribly but will get back and come home very hard. good effort first up in what seems like the best guide for the race. Cancanelle also ran a cracker in the Cockram and has drawn perfectly, should be good if it can time its run. Juste Momente might be a bit short but it will go very close, deserved fave
7,8,10

race 6: Bel Mer is improving with every run and can't be discounted from last couple of runs. Press the Button i think is a good rough chance, impressed in Melbourne as a two year old and will get back and charge home. Sleek Chassis showed potential last start, one of the better three year olds i think will be right in this
7,8,11

race 7: Maraco look very very hard to beat in this will start short but appropriately. Maldivian looks a promising type and is more suited to the mile, should go close. Blue Monday a good rough chance, won 2 from 3 over the mile and 4 from 4 second up. not a bad effot last start and one to watch. i'm very unsure about the Cat, not sure what to think for this one
4,6,7

yeah, like last week at caulfield nothing outside the first 4 at the turn looks likely to win, so the backmarkers will struggle again

just a thought.......back markers started to kick on in late races last week at Caulfield. could the same happen today?

i think you might be right mate

I hope you guys are right. My last 5 selections for the day are supposed to be running from the back of the field.

Well, whadya know. They've upgraded the track to Good. Yippee!

One win fron 2 bets. Orange County so far and wasn't surprised by track upgrade. Slow horses, just like last week.

Very nice run there by Roman Squire he was left flat footed by the slow speed but he really hit the line well I would like to see what sectionals he ran, Certainly a chance to win a race in melbourne this spring.

i agree raw very nice run first time up the straight by Roman Squire. was doing some impressive work late. someone earlier mentioned Divine Madonna had a little too much weight and i think it showed she just peaked the last 100. swick was another top run. never got clear til 150 out and nabbed second.

average day finished square. won on molotov and i think like the rest of australia or at least the half on marasco got the exacta the right way.....tough races all day. was impressed by devil moon who i thought would run well and did great run by eskimo queen......and although i wasnt on it great run by tan tat de lago. good to see a consistent country performer get a win up on the big guns.

in brissy today YUCK. only collect i got was pay me and it did but not much at all.......

knew Brissie was going to be alittle dangerous,,,,Had a great Collect on Colonial Lass,,Malta had his chance...
and an e/w on Payground Express ,,was all going to plan ridden back came to the outside at the right time and quickend nicely,,then just got lost out there by herself and lost the plot,,,,seems the horse can run but isnt right in the head,,
Melbourne,,,Backed Archie who was dissapinting,,Sleek Chassis (just didnt have any room) and Roman Squire (ran to the line well ),,,got something back though on Master Orielly who was very impresive...Magnetic boosted the tri nicely...
struck out with Posadas ,Letter of Intent and Sentsational Toy...

in the end went home with alittle less cash in the pocket,,,,

hoping to get it all back today with Emerald Jack,got 4's yesterday...
like Jimeoin for some value at the Sunny Coast if they arent getting right into the track,,

Hope you guys had a good one..

I thought it was a very good day at Felmington. Thrack looked beautiful and I must admit I was very impressed with the new stables and parage ring.

On the betting side I started off badly (as a result of my own stupidity), was keen on Rose Ceremony all week and even on the day but when I saw the books but up $7 on Gabrailter Campion I changed thinking that it should be able to beat it home and this price was well above what I had thought it was be (around $4). I still don't no what to make of it though, Rose Ceremony wins but i think Gabrilter Campion was badly held up and should of won.

Backed Orange County, got $4.6 on track which was a good price.

Backed Marasco, got out to $2.6 which was very generous. Just as I had thought, Flemington would suit.

Backed Bon Hoffa at $5 on track, thought it was well in getting all that weight off D Madonna. Thought that she run a good race but the weight just showed out in the end.


Best of all in the last Master O'rielly. Couldn't be bothered waiting around the betting ring so just took $3.3 as I didn't think they would give too much more, my mistake though ended up getting out to $3.9 to my suprise. Won very impressively and was a very good cup trial.

Thought the return to Fleminton was great and really enjoyed the racing back at headquarters. Look forward to the racing there this spring.

Couldn't get a lay matched at Flemington.

Very happy hunting elsewhere though. Layed both Malta and Playground Express. Sorry Mav ;)