Calling Wesmip1
 

Hi Wesmip
I wonder if you could run a query on last start winners. All days. All classes.
Price to 5/1.
a) Winning margin to 1 length
b) Winning margin more than 1 length.

With thanks
Salty

Not a problem ... see below


Selections: 7524
Win Strike Rate : 25%
WIN ROT : 86% (loss of 14%)


Selections: 7435
Win Strike Rate : 29%
WIN ROT : 91% (loss of 9%)

So in case you want a few more run here are a couple more lengths :

More than 2 lengths ( does not include 2 lengths):

Selections: 3737
Win Strike Rate : 32%
WIN ROT : 94% (loss of 6%)

More than 3 lengths ( does not include 3 lengths):

Selections: 1866
Win Strike Rate : 32%
WIN ROT : 91% (loss of 9%)

4 lengths or higher:

Selections: 1141
Win Strike Rate : 33%
WIN ROT : 95% (loss of 5%)

5 lengths or higher:

Selections: 613
Win Strike Rate : 36%
WIN ROT : 98% (loss of 2%)


Hope that helps out ...

Good Luck.

It certainly does. I just want to work on an extra angle or two. What amount of time do these results refer to?

Thankyou again
Salty

Wes, that's really interesting stuff, as I spend half of my time trying to isolate VERY simple systems that break even or just a bit better, i.e. 1 or 2 rules.

One thing there that intriges me though, those stats are obviously for the next start, so what interests me is the NEXT start again, especially if it failed after the win, and also if it's worth looking at the place with all of the above?

WESMIP.
I wonder if you could run me something?
The rule is it has to be TAB No 1.
And the other rule is it has to start at around $4 or over.
Thanks.

Wed. 10 Oct.
Albury
r10/3 [5w] 1.90p
r8/9 1.80p
r7/8 1.40p
r6/1 unp
r5/8 unp
Belmont
r9/13 2.60p
r8/5 1.80p
r7/4 unp
r6/2 2p
r5/2 1.60p
r4/1 1.50p
r2/9 1.60p
Strathalbyn
r7/6 [5.30w] 2p
r6/2 unp
r5/3 1.80p
Ballarat
r8/9 1.80p
r7/13 2.60p
r6/7 [5w] 1.80p
r5/3 unp

Work out the 2 simple rules to this Party and you'll have a nice little place system that more than breaks even [keep it to yourself folks]. No, no clues.

Nice, Crash....and as you say very simple. Anyone who follows your thoughts on the forum would have no difficulty in working it out .

How far back can you suggest it has worked? Or was yesterday just a special day?

Interesting system there, pretty sure I have it worked out. Out of interest, which tote are you quoting those odds from?

And isn't it really three rules? :)

Cheers
Paul

3 rules? Well everyone knows I don't back maiden races and a race must have 8 or more runners betting for the place so I don't call them rules!

The system has only 2 rules and yesterday wasn't special, just the latest day. The TAB source is not one of the rules and is easy to work out . The second rule is more opaque than the first.

OK, the ONLY clue: 'The value is built in'

Crash, didn't get me tab-Form yesterday do I need it or can I work it out from the info available from say unitab? isn't this exciting!?

LOL, LOL !!

Nah, you don't need any tab-form. Everything is right in front of you ......but rule 2 won't be tomorrow ...not for today :-))

TAB 1 /PRICE $4.00 - $100.00

10.5 % WIN PLACE % 33.18

LOT 20.19 LOT 18.12

AV DIV $7.59 AV DIV $2.47

MAX DIV $43.20 MAX DIV $18

Taken over 6 years.

darky.

Crash, ok, is the number 3 significant kinda? (not talking about form figures or saddlecloth numbers here)

No. a little bit higher might help!
Not a good day today. A small loss so far [really crappy races].

I can't give a long term profit or loss either because I only use the system now and then. I've done alright out of it though for the periods I have used it [I don't touch stakes, groups, cups or heavy going. No good at all].

Guys,

a bit tired tonight so I will run the requested searches tommorrow sometime ( or saturday).

Crash,

Nice little system and due to one of your quotes I think I could work out the rules.

Good Luck

Twigged to similar system myself, but never acted on it. Nice work crash.

And it even works better than you think, I didnt check all your quoted results but Belmont race 7, #4 did place. :)

I think there is a lot a room to toss around similar easy systems as they do ok. My only problem with this one is being at the computer long enough to work out how it would go long term. I just use it the odd day here and there.

It's a pity, but being based on prices but not SP prices makes it impossible to use stats to run a backfited profitably test.

1st rule yep. 2nd. rule a bit higher ['built in value'] :)

Ok, got interested in this enough to check out the success of my version (I stress this - it's my version not Crash's).

Ran it over October/Sept/August. I got excited when for October it was +78units on backing the win, but September and August both showed a loss of over 100 units backing the win (-40 for place backing).

Ah well, was exciting there for a while. Wonder if October will continue to be successful, I'll keep an eye on it. :)

2.5 years

Well that isn't as easy to test but


The results were pretty much in line with the win stats. For instance greater then 2 lengths gave a return of 95% as opposed to 94%.

For 5 lengths or higher the place results was a return of 99%.

Good Luck

Ok just those two rules :

Selecitons: 24197
WIN ROT : 79%

Might be good for laying

ok I assume you may want last start winner on there as well:

Selecitons : 2315
WIN ROT : 83%

ok so I tried Winning Lengths > 1 :

Selecitons : 800
WIN ROT : 69%

Good Luck.

In line with mine over 6 years hey WESMIP.

A dud .

Cheers.
darky

Going on all the races [just the 2 rules]:

NZ
1/1.70p
2/2.20p
3/2p
4/1.60p
5/2.60p
6/2.70p
7/unp
8/unp
9/1.70p

I am slightly confused????????

It was just a matter of interest [I did say, 'just the 2 rules'].

ok after further analysis I have no idea what the two rules are....

oh well... good luck to those who worked it out ... but I did come across something else I found interesting so thanks for sharing crash.

Good Luck.

I just ran it and it was surprisingly bad for last start winners that failed next start. It was also bad for top radio selections and top unitab rating.

For instance last start winners that won by more than 2 lengths, priced at under 5/1 or under on their next start and failed had the following stats for their next run :

Selections:1904
Win ROT: 83%
Place ROT:89%

Hope that fulfills your interest.

Good Luck.

Wes , once again thanks for all that effort, guess it's back on the trail, one of these days we'll strike gold ey?

Good challenge, Crash .... though methinks you are being rather selective in the venues you are giving the results for !!!

You blokes are amazing. The depth of your knowledge and the data base information really blows me away. If you ,as a group, can't find the answer to the so called "holy grail" then I reckon there is no answer. This forum is the first page I read when I turn the computer on each day so good luck to you all and keep on a dancing Maria.

Thank you Wesmip.
Just goes to show what seems to be happening is the average Punter doesn't really study the FormGuide properly and assumes that if it is TAB Number 1, then it must be good so they back it.

I'ld love to see similar rules run through a database of Greyhound results.

Hi Wesmip,

A couple of years ago on another forum (shock! horror!) you published a "Prize Money Favourite" thread. Basically it was using prize money of each starter and favouritism as filters.

Was wondering if you still use that system and if it has stood up?

Merryguy,

Sorry for the late reply.

I am not sure about the exact one you are talking about so if you refresh my memory I will let you know if I am still using it.

Good Luck.

Hi Wes,

Thanks for the response. As the post I was referring to was on a free forum I guess it will be o.k. to quote it here.

The name was as above in my previous post, and what you suggested was to check the prize money of every horse, and having dicovered the 'best' horse, back it for a place if its betting WIN odds were in the top half of all runners in that race.

You had had a few consistent returns doing that!

Merriguy,

Not my system but I found where you were looking. I have ran a test on it for you :

Selections : 24969
Win Strike Rate : 23%
Place Strike Rate : 53%
WIN ROT : 83% (loss of 17%)
PLACE ROT : 86% (loss of 14%)

I also tried the top third and it got similar results.

Hope that helps.

Good Luck

Thanks for that Wes. Didn't mean to send you off doing work on it --- but appreciated all the same. Doesn't seem to have legs :-(

Wesmip.

Here,s one for you.

WIN ONLY

WON LAST 4 STARTS and ODDS ON LAST START.

You might be very pleasantly surprised.

Cheers.
darky

Thanks Darky,

Very selective system .....

Good Luck.