Caulfield Cup Day
 

First look it appears to be a hard day. Always seems to be Caulfield Cup Day, can't remember the last time I was in front on this day.

I like Maldivian in the Cup, but who doesn't. Think Doro Valley is a danger.

The other that stood out is Vormista. Doubt a price though.

Post your thoughts.

i agree, douro valley looks the danger, and has firmed $1 in betting, $12 into $11. Vormista the obvious bet of the day

Vormista @ $2.20 looks like a great double up for my tab account :)
By god it needs it lol

$2.20 is pretty good..wide barrier of no concern unless its a dominant leaders biased track :(...I reckon you'll be lucky to get $1.90 fixed b4 the jump

I suggest you watch the first few races and see how the track is playing. If there is leader bias which there quite often is on CC day then it doesn't look such a good bet. I think you may get around that mark on track. Have to wait and see.

Vormista is a class above and kicked nearest rival Guild's head in last time they met.
There is money in the place bet in this race tho with a little study.
----------------
Just heard Colin Little says Blutigeroo is off it's feed and hasn't pulled up well and doubtful to run in the Caulfield Cup.

I'm disappointed Princess Coup drew so wide, I worry about Maldivian 's chances from Barrier one, 66 years of history and the laws of probability against him now, very very tough. If he does it then he is a superstar!
Only a couple of contenders remain unharmed from that draw.
Purple Moon got a suitable positon for style as did Maybe Better and Mandela.
Duoro Valley seems the longshot of choice with punters convincing themselves that because it has beaten Maldivian is a strong smokey.
It beat Maldivian by a nosehair, and at the same distance Maldivian beat it by a length.
Maldivian has improved greatly since then and Kavanaugh says there is improvement yet in him. Duoro Valley would have to make the same claims to be a rival here and that whilst not impossible is very unlikely.
It is a high pressure race so it could get lucky and do it.

Rumours of Craig Williams concussion seem confirmed by S Dye in from HK to ride D.Hayes's mounts that Williams was booked to pilot.

I thought williams suspended?

Kerr Caulfield track manager says 16 mills water to be dumped on track tomorrow, targeting a dead track. 4 horses pulled up sore after runs this week. Strong dry winds yesterday baked it.

Havent time for details...

Molotov 4's Best of the day
Villian 2.80

Adelaide
Sandhill Prince 2nd best of the day.
Silk Wind

Ascot
Naval Seal

Bendigo
Appian Way...have to research the jockey first..

I dont mind Typoon Zed tomorrow,,at the 5.50 hes alittle shorter than i expected..might wait till tomorrow

might get on later if i can..

Good Luck tomorrow :)

I think Villian is a little short. You need to be wary of the form from Flemington that day.

sorry this will be quick no time

1: 1,3,4

4: 1 villain looks good but possibly too short. can be beaten by the 2 it met last start 3 jabal tarik and 4 bammagera. 5 pillar of hercules also a good chance

5: 2 vormista the standout. chances to baet it are 6 bellini rose and 7 sovereign miss. 9 translate and 12 imposing are each way hopes

6: i loved 2 let go thommo's last run, at this track and showed what its capable of. big chance here $8 great value

8: Tough race, i'm going with four main hopes, 8 maldivian obviously, 10 mandela, 14 duoro valley, 18 master o'reilly.... 9 cinque cento good ew value

Rail out 6m and will be dead track early [after heaps of watering] going to good during the warm afternoon. A day to be careful of favorites and look for a bit of value!

Murjana in r1 to beat Class Apart. Struck serious interference last start at Flemington.

r2 A miserable bunch of bush scrubbers in this but Cot Case at e/w odds is better than last start suggests and isn't the fav.

r4 Bammagera if I can get at least 7/2

r6 Wasn't going to bet in this as any of the top 6 or No.11 could win. Looking a bit closer I think No.12 Our Maharaja [loomed up on Gold Edition last start] might be a good e/w smokey with a nice weight drop.

r7 Dracs Back gets a nice weight drop and has run some decent WFA races. 4th up and ready to fire and it's a bit easier here than last prep.

Caulfield Cup: One of these should win 6/8/11/14/16 :-))

r9 Shinzig e/w

I haven't had the time to do this for quite some time I'll have a bit of a dabble today.

Race 1: Not interested in betting much in this race however I don't mind Bourgogne didn't have much luck at all last time out when camped on the inside of a shocking track bias at flemington with a bit of luck can give this a shake other chances Try This and maybe Frangelico.

Race 2: I like Blacken here nice run a couple of starts back behind Pure Beauty Childs on board from a good gate might be able to settle around mid field here and hoefully finish off over the top of them. alot of other chances in this race should get nice enough odds about anything you like here.

Race 3: No interest at all in this race

Race 4: Villain very hard to beat here his turn of foot last start was devastating he will be to short for my liking however Littorio is one i have a little bit of time for might be an e/w bet will wait till race time to determine that however.

Race 5: Vormista should win this however this is why they run the race, I could be interested in something small on Miss Fantabulous here certainly not shelling out alot in this race.

Race 6: Let Go Thommo was awesome last start he flew to the line whether or not this might be just a bit sdhort for him now is my main concern I just have a feeling he is looking for the 1200 a hot speed would help his chances, Tebury Jack is a very good horse not sure about him 1st up but he can run some great time and is drawn to get a bit of galloping room which he needs more than anything, the other i don't mind a bit here is Cocinero should be improved from his 1st up run and wouldn't shock me at all here. There are plenty of other chances here including Our Maharaja who drops alot of weight on last start but you can't pick everything.

Race 7: On A Jeune looks ready to win again not real interested here though should get around the double figure odds about him, Hoffmeister, Dracs Back & Trick of Light all chances.

Race 8: Interesting race this will give my comments on each horse.

Tawqeet: Not sure here they say he is working well and they have been saying that all spring so far, I just have a feeling he just had his day in the sun last spring I cant be talked into him.

Blue Monday: If it wasn't for david hayes noone would be talking about this horse here, IMO he had every single chance last start and plenty of other chances put in better runs in the race.

Bluetigeroo: I didn't mind the way he hit the line last start he did finish off ok and the distance should suit him ok and Oliver does have a good record in the race, however there are reports he has had some problems eating this week and you really don't want any setbacks leading upto this kind of race. He is a horse who I can't tip but he wouldn't shock me at all if he ran in the top 6.

Railings: He was oh so good to me 2 years ago I won a stack on this horse that spring however since then his form is gone apart from a couple of runs, his last run wasn't awful but he is drawn in the car park and weighted to his best, He has a stack against him and it would be hard to see him doing much in this he falls into the same boat as Tawqeet hard to have but loves the distance so that alone creates a little interest into both of them but I can't have either of them.

Maybe Better: All I am hearing is he won't win this race his run last start was great he didn't get warm until the final furlong the extra 400m is only going to help and there does look to be pretty solid speed in this race which will suit him to a tee. I love this bloke the only thing that worries me is that they just might not try and win the race I will be having something on him today it just won't be as much as I would like for that reason alone I am sure he will be steaminghome anyway.

Black Tom: Not really interested here 2 miles might suit better but Idoubt he as the class these days to be a big chnce in hat either.

Purple Moon: I really doubt he has a show in this McEvoy doesn't hurt it's chances either but this would shock the hell out of me if it was anywhere near them in the finish.

Maldivian: All the so called experts have this thing across the line and although he has been impressive in his last couple of starts go back 3 starts and Duoro Valley sat off the track at almost equal weights with no cover and beat him, Maybe I am the only person who hs a problem with this until the last could of weeks or so I considered Douro Valley no chance at all in this race and I have always had a bit of a soft spot for it. The last 2 runs have been very good but for me there is doubt that he will run the trip out especially if he fires up a bit from the inside, he won't be able to get it all his own way here and at the extra 400m on last week just might make this a query, he is a good horse who has the chance to take the next step today he won't be doing it with my cash on him that is for sure to many questions for is odds.

Cinque Cento: I have to say she is no hope at all best of luck to all involved but I think she is very questionable at the trip.

Mandela: Not a bad little horse this bloke and drops alot of weight from the Kelt is that form good enough? very hard to say I am leaning to saying he is possibly the best of the roughies in the field because he can take a forwardish position and his geelong cup win last year was a good one I would keep him safe in this as it is not a strong field.

Scenic Shot: Great run last start form before that was ok his record at the trip is good and he should finish this off full of running with a better draw I would imagine alot more people would have been on this guy now it is hard to tell how far back he will get or if he gets in if they try to go forward early sped would help his chaces alot, I wouldnt leav himout of anything you do.

Annenkov: No chance at all as far as I am concerned.

Anamato: nice run last start not sure if she might be a run short Maybe Betters run last start IMO was alot better and he gets in 1kg better than her he will run the trip right out I amnot convinced she will yet, I give her a chance but I can't put my money on her.

Duoro Valley: I am still shocked that I have him in there as a chance to win this race it is laughable really, don't get me wrong he isn't a bad horse and his form warrants him being in the discussion probably even as the top pick can he win ? on form yes he can and if he is still at double figures this arvo then I would suggest he is worth a savor bet as he can take a position and will run the trip out.

Sirmione: He has issues this guy has some ability but there is a reason why he has only won 2 out of 19 I can't have him here but I don't want to talk anyone out of backing him if they want to as he has probably burned me more than anyone hence that porbably enhances my opinion of him.

Eskimo Queen: will go forward here and she showed in the QLD Oaks she can sprit off of that type of run however that isnot his type of field, I want to tip her and she is obviously a quality horse and she should get the perfect run to be the chance here to get over the leaders late whethwe she can hold off he swoopers late I don't know I have a feeling she will hit the lead at some point though.

Princess Coup: she is a good horse and can motor late but she will be doing it from the tail here and I feel she will be just giving up to much ground here she might be able to run a nice 6th or maybe a bit closer if she wins she is a better horse than I think.

Master O'reilly: Didn't like his last run at all in fact haven't liked his last 2 that much to be honest with you, he gets a good weight from a good gate I just question he is good enough to be in the finish here I can see him running on nicely but he would shock me if he won.

Cup Tips (I don't have Maldivian in here say what you will I amnot convinced yet)
1. Maybe Better
2. Scenic Shot
3. Eskimo Queen
4. Duoro Valley
5. Mandela
6. Princess Coup

9: I love Roman Squire aparently everyone else does these days to I amnot convinced we will see his best today not because of the break between runs but the track and speed of the race just might be against him. hard race but

10: Not all that interested.

Good luck today guys tough day we will all need it.

if maldivian gets beat by a horse it will be from one of these horses below.

#13 anamato
#16 eskimo queen
#18 master o'reilly


longshot- #7 purple moon- the shipper from britian. coming out of the 15 post but is dropping 12 pounds.

Caulfield Cup barrier draw.
 

My ratings ( see Gerry's Tips in this Forum ) do not take into account barriers, but with all the talk about Maldivian's so called bad draw I have done another market calculation taking barriers into account and interestingly enough, this was the result;

Maldivian firmed from $2.50 to $2.30

Master O'Reilly firmed from $4.80 to $4.40

Mandela, Duoro Valley, and Princess Coup firmed slightly, but the big mover

was Scenic Shot which was "out the gate" going from $8.80 to $19.40.

Gerry

Neugine looks like a nice e/w chance in race 4 in melbourne.

After the first 4 races watching the track I now think so long as Maldivian doesnt bet blocked too far back he will win this.
Still reckon the Cox suits him better

Blutigeroo would have to be worth a place bet wouldn't he?

The only thing I've been correct in so far today from my early post was :"A day to be careful of favorites and look for a bit of value!"

My tip is Master O'Reilly! I think master has a really good chance!!!

Iamnot a big fan of Kavanaughs but I feel awful for him in here really awful just unbelievable to see something like this happen.

I have to say that result shocked me I really could see no way that Master O'rielly could win that race good luck to those of you who did Maybe Better will not win anything with Corey Brown riding it he is a so so jockey always has been, Steven Arnold worked this horse out last year and it is painfully obvious Corey Brown doesn't have a clue.

In saying all this Maybe Better was average at best there I would say good luck to anything in the cup cause anything could win.

kick asz spot on!

nice job!

i've got the master in doubles with himself, eskimo queen and efficient

With the sub I got the exacta in 4. Very sad goings on. But that Meldivian has always been a barrier demon. A stess- out of a horse. The warnings were all there, sweating up badly in the mounting yard on such a big occasion. A sad race but good on you Vlad!

#13 anamato- out
#16 eskimo queen- scratched
#18 master o'reilly- 1st- $5.60 $2.10(nsw)/$12.50 $6.70 $4.60(us)
#7 purple moon- 4th

Gotta have a bit of a skite
 

Those of you who went to "Gerry's Tips" in today's forum would have the Cup Winner, exacta, quinella, duets, & trifecta.......

Sorry, missed the First 4 !

Gerry

pretty sure purple moon didnt finish 4th. I know cause i backed blue monday....

yeah i just noticed that a little while ago. got the two mixed up. it was too late to edit.

After watching the cup again Maybe Better may have over raced a bit early on Corey Brown did look as though he pushed him out the gates a little and that is a bad thing with this horse he has to be ridden dead quiet, in saying that he is in my mind no hope at all in the melbourne cup he would be lucky to finish in the front half of the field.

Master O'Rielly did win well and I have to admitt I am still shocked by it I bet the connections of Zavite were very pleased in seeing that after there chances were destroyed last week by Tacit Agreement but that is an arguement for another day, that was half the reason I didn't him yesterday because of the quality of horse he struggled to beat last week.

The best runs from what i have seen were Purple Moon and Bluetigeroo who both finished the race off nicely heading towards the cup after both were held up periodically by tiring horses in the straight. Blue Monday finished off very well and don't be surprised if there is alot of money on it now for the melbourne cup. Tawqeet was also a better effort but I still feel his best chance may have been and gone.

Other than that I don't think Duoro Valley will run 2 miles, I have a feeling that Princess Coup will struggle with it also I could be wrong there but she did get every chance in the world yesterday, Blue Monday will eat 2 miles alive on his run I still have doubts with it personally it's form has been far to streaky for my liking. After that I can only give a wrap to the 2 I already had in Purple Moon and Bluetigeroo the latter I amnot sure about at 2 miles but he races like he wants it anyway he could be the roughie for the cup at this point.

Geez, no subs in exacta's so I even missed that. Wife scored on Try This, Pillars of Hercules and Testerbury Jack [our local horse], so good luck to her. I picked up on Vandelo in r3 only.

No favorites won which is mostly par for the course for Spring Carnivals [unless they are odds-on].

After watching that sad drama unfold yesterday, I think it's about time we re-designed our deadly barrier cages!

Yep. Not sure how they make those kiwi ones (nothing seems to be holding them up???), but they certainly seem to work.

21 October 2007 NZ Sport

"A clamp used to fasten television equipment to the barrier stalls is believed to be responsible for the injury that caused the late scratching of Caulfield Cup favourite Maldivian at Flemington yesterday. Chief steward Des Gleeson says he has taken possession of the clamp, found with traces of blood on it.

Maldivian suffered a gash on his neck when he reared up in the stalls. His antics caused the second favourite in the race, Eskimo Queen, to become distressed and collapse under the stalls.

Meanwhile jockey Glen Boss has been suspended for 13 meetings for causing interference soon after the start of the race. Stewards found that Boss, who rode third placegetter Princess Coup, had hampered Tawqeet and Black Tom, which almost fell soon after the start."

For anyone interested probably not many now Maybe Better has pulled up lame in both front legs and could be a doubtful participant in the Melbourne Cup he isnot out as of yet but things don't look great for him.

A shocker for me yesterday...had a quiet one with only 5 bets but couldnt get one across the line,,,lost a stack on Molotov..
only good thing that came out of yesterday for me was the 13's i have for Master Orielly in the MC..
thought On A jeunes run was good and now into 21's !! happy with my 61's :)
thought Villians run was ok,,better at flemo ..

Like a couple today
All Pressure in Horsham Cup
and a roughie in Toydarriate in the last at Seymour..

Hope you all faired better than me :)

Well well well, first time I have made it on the net since CC day. What a day it was for all the wrong reasons. I just couldn't believe what I was seeing when the 2 favourites were being led away and neither could any of the crowd that were on track. Finally after getting through the tough times of the EI crisis we have the potential superstar of the spring scratched from the barrier. Unbelievable. And what about those who had pre post on Maldivian at odds of $47 at the start of the preperation, thought they were laughing. The majority of people didn't have any thing to cheer for as so much money had been taken on Maldivian.

On the brighter side though, Master O'rielly is a favourite of mine and great to see him win a big race. You can only beat what you are racing against so take nothing away from the win, he won easily. The biggest positive I believe is the jockeys of the first two place getters. Vlad Duric really deserves his success. And the jock of the second place getter James Winks. Doesn't get all the good rides but maby this will be his stepping stone.

For the day I had an ugly one. Just the one winner in the 3rd. Would of been a different story had Maldivian run and won though. I knew CC day is always hard to pick, count myself lucky to get just the one winner.

Hope you did better then me.