Moonee Valley Sat. 27th.
 

Moonee Valley Sat. 27th.

My scattered thoughts:

r1 I'll take an exacta on Apple Lode, Kaphero and Centopha and a win bet on Kaphero who could lead all the way in this with a clean jump.

r2 A curly one. No pace in this so it might not suit Miss Marielle. Miss Tommo Hawk's run last start at Caulfield was a good one but along with Marielle, it's a back-marker. Potomac the on-pacer might do better. I'll just take the 3 of them for an exacta.

r3 Royal Assher should be odds-on and win [no bet]
r4 Interesting, but a stupid race for the punter [no bet]
r5 A mares race [15 of them!]. They take it in turns [no bet]
r6 A 3yr. old race with no pace. Barbaricus? Down under boy? Throw a dart. [no bet]

r7 Dracs Back ran a good race last start at Caulfield and is ready to win 5th up. Nice barrier but heaps of runners so I want some odds.

r8 Lots of thought and guessing required here as it will all depend on the running. Will Miss Finland get a position and be able to get out for a run at the 800m? Devil Moon is no Might and Power so I can't see her leading all the way. Leaders in this race usually slaughter themselves and end up near the tail of the field because there is no way this will be a sit and sprint!

El Segundo has the barrier, the jockey and came 2nd. last year so that's the best I can go on. Am going to have him with Efficient [blinkers!] to win and Zipping [can sit anywhere], Lad of the Manor, Haradasun and Miss Finland for a 2x5x6 tri. Devine Madonna will get too far back to win or place here I think.

r9 Sonic Quest [for a win] has been going ok and finished up close last start, with Orange County and Emerald Jack for an Exacta.

Post your thoughts, tips and have good one!

Beat me to it with the tread this week Crash. I haven't had much of a look as yet, just a quick skim.

Early thoughts...
R1 Apple Lode was very impressive last start when first up. Will be hard to beat. Interested in Cargo Cult. Resuming here for a new trainer and has a great first up record. Might be one at odds.

R2 Pretty even, Diva La Bella was unlucky last start although the form hasn't been overly strong from that race. Eco Friendly looks like it is progressing nicely. In the Rocket Douglas stable and with Newitt on borad, at $31 on TAB sportsbet could be worth a nibble. Also thought Miss Tomma Hawk was good last start.

R3 Royal Asscher sould win this, will be short though.

R4 What a race this is! My head tells me that Miss Andretti gets the sit here and goes past Goldie up the straight. But my heart tells me to back Gold Edition. She is as tough as they come and will be hard to MA to get past. I think at the odds though I will have a little bit on GE.

R5 Another mares race and no doubt a different winner. Your best bet with these mares races is to stick with one through out the spring and make sure you are on when it does win. I have been and will be with Blessed again.

R6 Tough race again. Kibbutz is coming along nicely, and is looking for further. I think there is one at double figure odds here which is worth the each way ticket, Thesandmancan was good at the night meeting at the Valley. Form from the race is super with Najib winning by 7 (admiteddly in a weak madien) and Morten Bay running a track record on Geelong Cup day winning by 5.

R7 Two I like here. Dracs Back looks like he is coming along nicely. Is just about time for him to win. The other is Reggie, has been racing well of late.

R8 So many chances here. I am beginning to really like Heradasun here, he will get a good run and it looks like a race for him to stand up. Devil Moon, you can't fault winning form. People may want to ignore the Turnbull but she won and won it well. Will get an easy time in front and if she is good enough she can win this. Efficient, have always loved this horse, and if you are one who is ignoring the Flemington form then he is in this up to his ears based on his previous run.

R9 Like Sonic Quest here, hoping he can make up for his last defeat.

R10 Yet another tough mares race. Didn't mind Goldfield Ashes but now scratched so I have no idea.

Good Luck

sorry guys have zero time for this, all i can say is that for the big one i am down to Haradasun, Devil Moon and Efficient

good luck!

Some good thoughts there Jeff.

The Cox is a weak one this year and that's why I've thrown in Lad of the Manor in my multiples. I'm suss about Zipping at WFA and might swap in Eskimo Queen into my multiples after another look at the form, as she has a good barrier and might run into the placings.

Punters keen on the fav. should remember MF rises 9kg. from last years effort [46kg for 6th from b4]. Efficient odds are getting a bit short for a horse that has had only 1 win in the last year.

I would not touch MF, not saying she can't win but I dont believe she is as brilliant as she was. She is not better than anything else in the field and her price is unders due to her reputation. I agree with what you say with Efficient, however he is only lightly raced and hasnt run in much that has suited in the past year. I think this is where he needs to stand up and silence the doubters.

I totally agreed on MF. I would not take out Zip totally. It has high chance in placing.

El - Good chance in this. I like him and he will be my best bet.
Lad - Will have him in placing
Nico - Good run behind Madonna but rised in weight. Regular jock and could be a big treat.
Maras - No way. Bad run in Turnbull!!!
Zip - Good track and distant record. Big treat. Disadvantage is on the barrieir and rised in weight.
Hara - Huge firm in odds. Might start favourite. Should be there.
Eff - Not that impressed with him. Take the risk of not putting him in the multiple.
WW - Big risk as rised in weight. no record at distance.
Magic - Good run behind PC. Big treat and rating is not bad as well.
Madonna - Afraid that it might get too back. Risk but will put in multiple.
MF - No due to barrier.
Devil - Good form but I think will not last leading in Cox plate. Too pressure.
Queen - No. Not impressed at all.

My tri - 1,3,5,6/1,2,3,5,6,9,10/1,2,3,5,6,9,10 - 1/2 unit for 60. Taking risk. Higher risk higher return...

Race 1,
Interesting that alot of these arent really suited at the 1000m,,even less so here at the valley where its more like a 900m dash..
Kaphero has great gate speed and should lead this,,the swoopers like Apple Lodge, Cargo Cult, Stickpin might find it hard to catch him
,,,5's at the moment but the track worries me alittle,,if its a good dead i might have something on tomorrow,,
Monahan tweed worth throwing in the multis but the concussion plates worries me.,but a dead MV surface will be forgiving..

Race 3,
Royal Assher looks to speedy for them...great run last start ..cant have her at those odds but 2.50 maybe,,,

Race 4
A real non betting race this,,,Miss Anddretti 1st up at the 1200m might find it hard to catch a fit Goldie....
i can't split them...but if my life depended on it ,,Goldie jus cause shes a queenslander :)

Race 5.
I think the 14's around for Miss La Tar is excellent value,,,she's in great form and likes the track and distance,,
shes always seems to go around at good odds (prob her 15% win rate ) but her form suggests she can be very competitive in this..meets
Post thyme 4k's better at the weights..Hidden Strings even with the weight can run a very good race here ,,
Gauci although not my fav jockey (Cox last year) is out to prove himself here and will be desperate for a win..

Race 6
Very hard to split the top 4 ,,,i think Davcon as his breeding suggests he'll like the distance but i'm not super keen on him around this track,,
i'll just be playing around with the top in multis i think as they are just way to close ( throw in Kibutz aswell)....Marching should be closer in the run and at the $2 for the
place might be a better bet e/w.....i'll see what odds i get tomorrow..

Race 7,
Very keen on Red Lord,,,i'm prepared to forget his last run on "that Track" and go on his previous,,i think the Zabeel in his pedigree
will come through and the distance shouldnt worry him...the double figure odds around are very tempting..
Paccino is flying and if he gets a start i think hes in this up to his ears...i'll back both if they start..
Drac the obvious and Sentire and Jo the dangers..

Race 8,
Already have this race sorted...El Segundo 8s' / Haradason 6's and Zipping 21's and 34's ...
i think Devil Moon will lead with hara on her girth or if WW comes across Hara will just take the good posie 1 back 1 out..
Miss Finland sitting back on the inside hoping for a run..
El segundo will peel out with his customary sprint..
Zipping will be the outside of runners and will be coming late...
put Miss / Efficient / devil in your mulits..
El Segundo the best result for me,,,owes me for last year,,if he runs a nose 2nd i'll off myself..

Race 9,
Emerald Jack is flying and has been good to me,,he is coming back in distance but likes the track ,,Sonic Quest i think will be
suited by the oustide,,hes the improver and the big fellow just need room....i like the exacta here with these 2..
3,70 is nice value for Sonic Quest....


Best ... Miss La Tar . ElSegundo , Sonic Quest


Belmont
Grasspatch Girl
Rocky
Shariara

Marasco.

Marasco won't win

yes he will.

Won't.

Will.

Won't.

Will.

:D

No, it's not unders. She's the right quote at about $4.00. Reputation doesn't bear part of it in the Cox Plate. At this high level it's about what you can do, and she's done enough. She deserves to be favourite.

I disagree. She has a strong band of followers, many of whom know little about racing. A friend of mine was at the local TAB a while back, heard a punter labeling "she is the best horse I have ever seen". These are the types that will back it without even looking at the field or knowing any other horses in the race. Due to this she is unders. You will see tomorrow that she will not run favourite and her price will drift when the serious money comes, as it already did today.

El Segundo - Has to be considered one of the top hopes. has been among the best of our horses for a few seasons now and out of the field is the most deserved.
Lad of the Manor - Past his best. Excels at the track but age is against him here. the distance is too far and i dont think he has the heart of F.O.O to do the same.
Niconero - In my books the roughy to watch. has been steadily going about her business improving with each run. i always compare her and Casual Pass together. Both are not superstars but always raced in this grade and every now and then got up at huge odds.
Marasco - The underwood was the first sign she might not make the trip and i think the turnbull confirmed it. unlike others will need everything to go right to be any chance of winning.
Zipping - Track and distance specialist, not as long odds as he once was and with good reason. however at the end of the day i dont know whether he'll have it at the end of the race to match it with the fancies.
Haradasun - i guess the question is will his legs turn up. I put this horse and Miss Finland in the same category. No matter how they turn up on the day they are a class above the rest and that should see them in the finish.
Efficient - Undecided. mixing form. looked good early on in preparation but hasnt come on as well as would have liked. pass
Wonderful World - Against this class just too inexperienced and a query with rise in distance
Magic Cape - hasnt put a foot wrong and always runs a top race but gets hampered by the poor draw. good luck to them and 6, 7, 8 place get 110,000
Divine Madonna - My tip for the race i been talking her up for a while and am not gunna jump off now. i think there will be a decent tempo in the race and she can come from the clouds. it wont effect her how far back she is. the ride will be a dwayne dunn special
Miss Finland - so many people knocking her and dismissing her as a chance. are u serious???? i agree with most that she doesnt deserve to be the outright favourite but the class this filly has behind her is unquestionable. watchin her last two runs i thought she was poor yet look at the results, two seconds. if she sits fourth or fifth in the box seat she'll place. i think craig williams could get her beat. he's an up and down rider.
Devil Moon - i love this horse. i absolutely love her but i think she's too young to win a plate leading. to do so would put her with sunline and she's not there.....yet.
Eskimo Queen - like all questioning the effect the barrier incident will have on her. could have possibly been the large crowd. but after tossing the jockey in bris this horse needs some luck. while they'll be trying to win tomorrow i think the MC is whats in mind and this is a hit out. my MC pick so far

Overall
Divine Madonna
Haradasun
Miss Finland
El Segundo/ Niconero

I am a Miss Finland fan, and every now and again i throw and eye over the odd field or two. I tipped her to win the Golden Slipper and have followed her ever since. She has beaten EVERY horse in this field before and at the grand old age of 4, and for some time now, has won over $4,000,000 in prize money. She is 11-5-0 from twenty starts, Group 1's and 2's and i believe will win this race tommorrow. What a donkey she is.

On the other side we have the LEGEND Haradasun, who is a much more deserving horse, despite the fact she has beaten him three times now. I know he had excuses, indeed he seems to each and every time he starts, his totsies were sore. Now he might win, who knows, but to sit here and listen to the rubbish you've just spouted based on what you "reckon" about Miss Finland, and the rest of us unknowing morons, just seems to give me the ********s.

Best of luck.

I was making the point that she was under the odds. Never said she couldn't win either, i definetly think that she can win. However, I do believe that there are several winning chances and I for one would not be stepping into the $3.8 that was on offer. Would you? I agree she was brilliant as a 3yo against her own age and sex, but now she is in the big time. She does not stand out like she did when she was againt her own sex. Many punters often do not look at these kind of things (pub punters, those who have a bet just for the sake of it). You obviously are not one of these, but you must agree that it does have plenty of supporters that will give you unders. I suggest if you are keen you get to the track tomorrow and see what price you can get.

ijuanda,

marasco is a he and he ran a closing second to pompeii in the aus cup over 2000.

Ignore the hype and the coat-tuggers, here are the facts and the best lays in the Cox:

Marasco's form in Vic. suggests she'll hold up the next race. Might win a country maiden.

Haradasun [hasn't been able to win one of the easier last 6 starts and now it's going to win the Cox?].

Miss Finland [up 9ks since last year's loss in this and has never proved herself as a WFA horse].

If El Segundo gets the wobbles [often], I wouldn't be surprised to see Lad of the Manor win this as we have one of the weakest Cox fields seen for some time.

i'm pretty confident about Haradasun :)



well put.

Probably the first year i can remember in Mlb where thres been a different winner in every WFA lead up.

El Segundo: MV specialst now, only beaten a nose last year. Can outsprint them from the back when the pressures applied.

Wonderful World: Form is good i think. I was very impressed with this guy as a 3yo & am following my opinion here. Run full of merit last start, did a hell of a lot more work than Divine Madonna & Niconero. Potential 4yo improver in a non-vintage year, right trainer, gets nice run.

Miss Finland: Has at the least been hitting the line OK last couple after a brilliant return. But barrier 1 does her no favours? Also the likely fave so no prima facie value anyway

bombs away!!!!!


#5 zipping
#7 efficient

rogerson needed the last race at flemington with these two.

both need a 1 1/4.

[QUOTE=crash]Moonee Valley Sat. 27th.

My scattered thoughts:

r1 I'll take an exacta on Apple Lode, Kaphero and Centopha and a win bet on Kaphero who could lead all the way in this with a clean jump.


BINGO

Missed the Quin but a nice kick-off on the win.

OK the big one:

Lad of the manor e/w
quin: 3 units 1/2/7
Tri: 20% 1/2/7x1/2/5/6/7/11/13

wife: Efficent w

correction he....my apology.....but it didnt win the race over 2000 did it? look dont want to start an argument but its form this time in suggests it will struggle. am i wrong?

if it wins ill swallow my words but as i have said before anyone who thinks they can confidently pick a horse for the place is full of it. you've said marasco will flat out win. good luck with that but the besides el segundo and haradasun and possibly miss finland who all deserve to be 5/1 eq faves i think the rest of the field should be 15/1

Well its over for another year and what a brilliant performance by the first two runners.

El Segundo - Supreme. brilliant run and well ridden. deserved to get this one under his belt
Wonderful World - Nash probably thought he'd pinched it and im sure next year they'll target this race and with another season under its belt will be a force
Haradasun - Taken to the front which i think was the right move but just got beaten by better horses on the day
Miss Finland - found flat footed - a creditable fourth but the run showed the MC has been her target
Divine Madonna - first horse beaten at the 3 furlong mark. was never comfortable
Marasco - slowish pace didnt suit but not good enough
Efficient/ Eskimo Queen - good runs for MC
Devil Moon - wasn't taken to the rails early to establish the lead. left haradasun widish which forced it forward and therefore beat itself when it overraced when taken on
Lad, Zipping, Magic Cape, Niconero - Not good enough to win a plate....lad is but years ago

I at least got the above right:-)
------------------------------------------------

[QUOTE=crash] "El Segundo has the barrier, the jockey and came 2nd. last year so that's the best I can go on"

For the fun bets I have on these type of big days. I didn't back it because of the odds. Just missed the tri [like a lot of us I think] because of Wonderful World's 2nd. Who would have thought? Sit and sprint pace had a lot to do with it.

Oops, well called jeff. Apologies.
Ok run I suppose, but epected a much better run.
Will be interested to hear Hayes' excuses this time, last two runs she was beaten by "tempo".

Congrats to El Segundo, deserving winner.

No need to apologise, we are all entilited to an opinion. I guess now we can officially ignore the Turnbull Stakes from all future form references. Why was El $7 and Haradasun $4.8, when El beat it 2 starts back. The price was based on the run of the Turnbull. Gee, hindsight is a good thing.

The Turnbull this year was a non-race as far as form goes.

Huge day for me today,,,after the disaster last week i really needed it..

Kaphero , Marching 1st4 ,tri in the Aami Vase , elsegundo !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (dam WW killed my 1st4)
and a huge go Sonic Quest !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! just loved that outside,,
then Schahria at Rocky to top it all off !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Red lord leading ?? pulled his head off and not the right way to ride him..
got my money back on Miss Lar Tar but dissapointed as i still think she would have given that hack Maslins beach a lesson ,,

Grasspatch Girl would have been nice but i shouldnt be greedy..

Bring on the MC with Master Orielly (13's)

Hope you guys had a good one :)

My shout at the bar ...

Wonderful World would have been a fantastic result for me....thought i had it straightening.

still a collect on El Segundo, e/w collect on WW, the quinny & running double with Sonic Quest. nice :)