Derby Day 2007!
 

The day we have all been waiting for is almost upon us. Lets go though with a preview and discussion on the meeting, and hopefully find some winners.

Race 1 - 2yo race to start the day. Probably the best use for this will be to watch and see what the track does. If you must have a bet the toppy Exceedingly Good looks like it will be the one to beat. Raced on the pace last time at Flemington in what turned out to be the worst part of the track. The one at the bottom Ballerina Girl for Hayes has had plenty of backing so this may be a good lead. Flash'N Dough made up good late ground at Cranbourne last start althogh this is alot tougher but may be worth a few dollars at long odds ($21 on TAB sportsbet). I suggest taking Exceedingly Good into something you like later in the day just for some interest.

Race 2 - The Carbine Club is usually a good race. This year is very tough with an even bunch. I think the winner should come from the Winning Edge Presentations at Caulfield. Teskara, Blue Sky and Zarcroona all were good runs in this and little splits them. One that come from outside this form reference is Motonari. Its form however does tie back to this. Last start was good finishing second to Katherine Gold. But if you go further back to its second start you will see that it beat Blue Sky by 4 and a half lengths at Sale. Think it will be one of these four winning but splitting them is the tough part as there is very little between them. Am leaning towards Motonari at this stage.

Race 3 - There are tow that interest me here. The Fuzz the obvious, was a good run in the Geelong Cup and had Zavite's measure. The value runner will be Pachino. Missed a start in the MV Cup last week, so hopefully he has been kept ticking over. I think The Fuzz should win this though.

Race 4 - The Wakeful is a leadup race for the Oaks. I am quite keen on Serious Speed. The fillies are a very even bunch, but the one that stood out in the Thousand Guineas was Serious Speed who gave them a galloping lession. The extra distance shouldn't be a worry and looks the class horse. Only concern is that very few horses win this and then win the Oaks and this quite often throws an upset. I think she can buck the trend though and I am quite keen on her here.

Race 5 - Can't see Weekend Hustler being beaten here. Only danger is Royal Asscher. I do think though that Weekend Hustler will do the same as Gold Edition did last year (only problem is they won't give $6 like they did last year with Gold Edition :) )

Race 6 - I think the winner will be one of the ones who run well in the Cox Plate. Either Devil Moon or Haradasun. Devil Moon should settle better this week and is 2 form 2 at the new Flemington. Also has beaten Haradasun 3 form 3. Haradasun will be a better run this week and will be handy rather than leading. I will be on Devil Moon at this stage.

Race 7 - The Derby is a tough race to tip this year. The two I like are Marching. Can't ignore his last start in the Vase. Had his rivals covered and looked the winner a long way out. The other I like is Littorio, has finally drawn a barrier and will be able to get a good run from there.

Race 8 - Divine Madonna looks a good thing here. The from from the Toorak is rock solid and form from the Cox plate is always strong, plenty of winners come from those who run in the Cox Plate.

Race 9 - Really liked the way Tesbury Jack won first up and will be much improved from that. Goes well second up also, a bit concerned about the weather however. Danger is Shadoways. Goes well up the straight and is in good form.

Race 10 - Very tough one to finish off the day. Lord of the Dance won easily last time in a slowly run race. Roman Squire can run a big race. Velidictum is the class horse of the race and warming to him. Royal Ida is a class horse and can't be ruled out either.

All this is based on the track not being too wet (no worse than a dead), and the track playing fairly.

Best of the day would probably be to double up Weekend Hustler into Divine Madonna, then if you are game include another leg for a nice pay out.

Post you thoughts!

Good Luck!

Exceedingly Good a moral

What makes you so sure? How can you dismiss the Hayes first starter?

R1 - No analysis.

R2 - No analysis

R3 - Like The fuzz and Zavite. Zavite has now 1Kg better. Might pip The Fuzz on the line. (5,8 quinella + 8 win)

R4 - No analysis.

R5 - No analysis.

R6 - Have a feeling Maybe Better will be back to his best as he has good form on dead track + he loves Flem. Dist average....Hard to beat will be Devil moon and I will put 3,4,10,12,13 for my placing (5,14/3,4,5,10,12,13,14 Tri).

R7 - Like Villian....

R8 - Divine Madonna is a class above but defeatable. I will box tri with Like it is (4), Belinni Rose (6), Translate (7) and Autumn Jeuney (11).

R9 - Always like Shadoways (6) to beat Tesbury Jack (2), Stanzout (3) and Storm Signal (12). 6 E/W and box tri of 2,3,6,12.

R10 - Like Amerryking whom should be back to his best. To beat Rockford Bay(3) and Royal Ida (1).

All the best guys....

Good going Matilda, but think twice about Villain [Lay of the Day]. The horse needs pace and none in this race. Breeding says: "suss at the distance". Marching's been heavily raced for a 3yr. old and probably peeked last start, so keep away from that one too as it might stuggle with the distance is my advice. To top it off, Flemington is going to be a whole new ball-game for a lot of runners tommorrow.

obviously the hayes hard to rule out completely, but i'd prefer to see some trial form before i could pick it, $3 is way unders. i've heard EG could really be something special (will no doubt flow now :p)- as you said, travelled on the worst part of the track the whole race and demolished them last start, exceed and excel off to stud was a tragedy so hopefully the kids can get the chance to prove themselves

EG ????

Exceedingly Good???

yeah sorry not clear there

1: Confident about 1 Exceedingly Good here, doubt a price

2: 1 Cecconi top pick here, class horse against a buch of no hopers

3: I think The Fuzz is a big chance here, been very consistent i think this will suit. Zavite also but will be unders, King of Ashford a good each way chance

5: Undecided here, Weekend Hussler will obviously be something huge, back to the 1200 though and Royal Asscher is in some super form

7: Very open race. my top pick is Littorio, what a cracker last start, race should suit and barrier is a plus. Bammagera each way, apart from that the obvious Villain, Marching, Kibbutz cant be left out

8: Divine Madonna should canter in, Cinque Cento ew value

r1-1,4,5,10 main chances
r2-pit lane,motonari
r3-new kid in town
r4-3,8,9,10,11 main chances looking for value
r5-weekend hussler will treat this like a barrier trial..will probably lead with a throttle hold then let down and win by 4 untouched
r6-devil moon will lead until clocktower and get run down by a swooper
like zipping to finish top 3
r7-everyone thinks Marching is home in a hand canter but think Kibbutz could trouble it..like stockade,littorio and bammagera to fill first 4 0r 5
r8-like blessed to lead all the way with cinque cento on her hammer...divine madonna just missing on line :D
r9-weak salinger this year SWICK gets his chance today over cocinero,stickpin and catechuchu
r10-royal ida,roman squire,annas choice

R1 - Guessing Exceedingly good
R2 - Electromotive E/W
R3 - The Fuzz
R5 - Scenic Blast (supremely confident)
R7 - Villain
R8 - DM nearly unbeatable at 1600, Translate at value should have the rest covered easily
R10 - Lord of the Dance / King Johannes

Pit Lane/Motonari/Teskara - quinella
The Fuzz - win
Masked Assassin - place
Penceleron - place
Royal Ida - win

good luck boys

Well thankfully my punting career has gone well the last couple of weeks and have managed to walk the tightrope and keep going again into this week.

Race 1: Not betting but I don't mind Reaan by Hussonet out of Ribe who was a nice mare on the track and I would say this would be her 1st foal to race interesting race to watch anyway.

Race 2: This is a wide open race hard to really narrow in on anything I don't mind Motonari & Lucky Duke both look like they will be decent odds Lucky Duke hit the line nicely with Littorio last start so that form could turn out ok.

Race 3: I only like Pacino here a repeat of his last run wins this race IMO he will stay and the track conditions will not worry him seems to ike the cut out of the ground, Desert Master was another at odds I could make a case for been improving each run this prep could be ready to peak today.

Race 4: I love Serious Speed won a stack on her recently but she is vulnerable here today, Diana's Secret is the one I like a bit here at nice odds been racing well drawn well good jockey form against a good orse last start, The roughie I don't mind if it gets a run is Marjorie.

Race 5: I'll sit an watch this one

Race 6: Going to have something on Maybe Better probably stupid money but I think there a few grously over rated horses in this race that continue to be short every single week, I would love to see how much the bookies have made out of Haradasun and Miss Finland it would be stacks.

Race 7: Alot of chances in this race I will try and narrow this down, Marching was a nice run last start but to winthis he will be defying his pedigree completely, Villain I feel has enough stamina out of Carnegie to be a massive chance here I probably won't back him but I won't leave him out of anything I do, Kibbutz I saw his last race for the 1st time this morning it was a massive run he was about 16 wide round the turn to even get close to Marching last start and Flemington will suit him to a tee don't leave him out, Best Beware is a roughy I could give a small hope for, Galaxy Lad was a good un at Geelong last start he carted the field up to them not sure what Rodd thought he was doing he could go a bit ore forward today he is one paced but they will have trouble getting past this bloke if he goes forward, Littorio is the one I have liked for awhile now great run last start the trip the only worry for me and I am happy to gamble on that. My Picks Littorio, Kibbutz, Villain & Galaxy Lad.

Race 8: No Bet

Race 9: Not all that keen here Cocinero is one i could slightly entertain, Typhoon Zed nice effort last start still question how good he is, Honalee a monster run last start but he rarely backs it up good luck with this one is all I can say.

Race 10: Roman Squire although he has drawn the wide gate he can win his a bit of speed in the race would help as will the cut out of the ground and the wide open spaces of flemington, Count to Zero is the other I don'tmind in this.

Good Luck today guys should be a good one.

Enjoying the tropics today and checing out some beach front land,,,dream of mine to retire on the beach and fish all day..(yes spending my elsegundo money before i give it all back)
I'm a bit gunshy today as i'm not sure what to expect from the track..but its still a great days betting..


Race 2,
Thought with improvement Teskara at the 14's was a nice e/w bet,,,a very open race but i'll take those overs..
Race 3,
The Fuzz should be to good but dont forget it was a weak Geelong cup field he beat..i'm sure Pacino dislikes the wet surface and he'd be a special if the track holds up,,,,better of waiting till after the 1st and seeing if you can get any guide from it...Sentire suited here and likes the give ,at the 15's hes nice e/w value
Race 4, Extension of Time did very well last start in the wrong part of the track,,i like her here and had a big go at her thursday morn..Riva san should appreciate the distance and serious speed the obvious,,
Race 6
Haradasun looks well suited,,,no elsegundo , no wonderful world, had Finland and Devil covered last start,,gets a way better run here than last start and will stalk devil and beat her...,,the only danger i see is Zipping ,,i'll be on both..
Race 7,
Kibbutz was huge last start,,bred to run forever,,i'm happy enough with the 4's ,,,thought Husonic could jag a place at odds,,,got alittle on at 26's.
Race 8,
I couldnt take Divinne Madonna at those odds here,,,shes never backed up after a 2000m race before and i'd be alittle worried about her ,,,..thought Blessed an interesting roughie worth a couple of bucks on..but a race i'm not confident enought to lay DM,, love the mare and she's all class..
Race 9,
I agree with Ra,,thought Honalee was very good last start and proven performer down the straight,,,she mixes her form but at the 15's she's nice value,,,Shadoways running into peak form the big fellow likes room and time to balance up,,,7.50 is ok value,,should get around that close to the start..
Race 10,
11's about Amerryking ,,thought his run was good last start and if theres some give in the ground it will suit,,will see how the track is going..

Best bets, Extension of Time, Kibbutz
Best e/ws , Teskara , Sentire , Zipping , Shadoways

Ascot, Calico Blue
Taralgon , Iron leige
Adelaide, Silk Wind
Rocky , Mersey beat, Cockaigne, Cinnamon RD (allup ?)

Good luck all :)

r1. Nato [b9] to turn the tables on Exceedingly Good [b1] down the straight.
r2 Pit Lane or Motonari
r3 Tricky race this one. I'll bet around the fav. and go for Desert Master and Cholula (NZ).
r4 Can Serious Speed win in shock-shod shoes?
Get serious! And this is not 1600m again, but 2000m. I'll chance he won't win and go for the odds on Extension of Time and River San.
r5 Shrewd Rhythm e/w
r6 Zipping ew [don't do ya' dough again on the bookies best friends, MF and Haradasun!]
r7 Lotterio at this venue and 1/2 x 1/2/3/4 tri
r8 1/2 x 1/2/3/4/6/7 tri
r9 Shadoways / Honalee win. 6/10 x 1/2/6/10/11 tri
r10 Lord of The Dance and 2/5 x 2/5/7/10 tri

Good luck and hope the track is racing true!

thank god for Count to Zero keeping the punting career alive amazing with the last bet of the day.

tough day for me,,won a stack on Kibbutz but gave it all back on some ordinary runs....extension of time fought the jock the whole way,,Zipping was only going around for a barrier trial,,,Shadoways ?? honalee just wont win another race...
Teskara a good run ,,,Sentire a frustrating 4th..

Stilll some work to do Tuesday,,,track condition will be interesting,,,
Heres hoping On A Jeune or MAster Orielly can take the cup home..

I should become a place punter for the rest of the carnival. Everything I tipped placed [I backed most of them only for the win], except one. I did score a lucky win on Zarita after a change of heart about Zipping. Apart from that, I had 2 place collects from e/w bets. Tough punters day!