Melbourne Cup Day 2007
 

With the rain continuining to fall in Melbourne the track is getting wetter and wetter. I would say that we will be on atleast a slow track come Tuesday unless the weather takes a dramatic turn in the next 24-48 hours.

My biggest concern however is how the Flemington track will hold up for the future meetings. I am very much looking forward to Stakes Day, but my concern is that if the track is slow for Tuesday and gets cut up what will the consequences for Saturday (I am not too concerned about Thursday, Oaks is never a good day)? I am hoping the track isn't a disaster by the end of the week.

In saying that we may need to take into account the form when doing the form. On early thoughts there were a few I would be having a close look at, including Race 4 #3 Eskaw, Race 6 #3 Balcentra, Race 9 #13 Sanjuan.

In the Cup I like Master O'Rielly. Will get the trip and looks to have had the beat lead up, looks the one to beat.

Post your thoughts

Hi Jeff. I'll do the form on the other races Cup day when it's clear what the weather is doing. The new Flem. has great drainage but heading for a slow for sure. Rail out 2m.

I was very surprised how true the track ran on Sat. Lets hope it can stay half-decent. I had MO marked down as a certainty in the Cup, but now with a slow track looming I'm a bit worried about the weight impost after the CC.

I've had a really good look at the Cup form and for almost all of them it's terrible really except for MO and Duro Valley for this. Getting outside of the hype and coldly looking at form, the horse that has missed all the hype and stands out is Dolphin Joe.
Decent form this prep. [beat the Fuzz 3 starts ago at Flem.], light weight and ran a 2nd. over the cup distance in the slow at Sandown last prep. Sandown form is great form because it's a tough track and a big track. Has been looking for the 'slow' too .

I agree, I will be doing the form closer to the day. My concern with the track is the chance that the grass may not be completly settled in and having water in the track may cause it to cut up badly. I am hoping this is not the case.

I think Master O'Rielly will be hard to beat. I think he should go well on the slow track. Haven't looked at his form on wet tracks but being by O'rielly he should handle it.

I'd say another good day for the Bookies, but I'm going to try and get a bit off them!

r2 Bit of pace in this Mares race from leaders Miss Badoura and Tahnee Tango if Dunn can get her across from b19. Backmarkers Just Curious and Collodi [won this last year] with top Jocks will take advantage of the pace. Collodi?

r3 Southern Courage won this last year with 54kg but gets another 4kg this time. Satinspin (NZ) is my pick here who will come late at the 2 leaders in this. Ran a top 2nd at Benalla to Viz Vitae by a head over 2300m 2nd last start and is coming off an OK mid-placing in a G2 at Geelong last start. 5th up so will be spot on.

r4 Reshuffles e/w. Been waiting for this one in a Mares only race to suit so it gets it's chance here. Laura's Charm has had a horror draw for 1400m so that will help!

r5 / r6 Keeping away from these two 3yr. old races at this track. Save betting money for later or throw darts?

r7 The Cup. [looking like dead trk]
Caulfield Cup form is good form for this so I'm Sticking with 1st an 2nd place getters Master O'rielly and Duro Valley to win.
MO cops a 3kg penalty, up to 53.5kg. DV is at 51.5 and that's 7.5kg down on it's last start in a WFA to Sirmione [Old Bart's cup smokey].
Dolphin Joe, Purple Moon, Gallic, Princess Coup [2nd to Sirmione last start and down 5kg] and to stay a bit safer, Tungsten Strike [who has won over this distance first up after a 33wk. spell], into my Quin and Master O'rielly x the others for my tri.

r8 No pace in this so looking to Blitz'em Riley who has good Sandown form for this and a good barrier (5) and Flash Trick looks suited after a close up 4th here 2 starts ago after striking interference in the straight.

r9 It's not going to be dry enough for Testbury Jack here [it's my local horse]. Shadoways copped a bit of interference last time but didn't look the goods anyway. Typhoon Zed hit's a brick wall at 1100. Pencelaron goes like a rocket but the straight might not suit
Honalee ran a good race last time and the extra 100m will suit. The Fuzz ran a bottler last start and likes it here, so a bit on both of them and Pencelaron for a Quin. and a win bet on Honalee maybe.

r10 Lord Of The Dance should win but will be short but might get a surprise in this from a few here. Poor betting race really.

Best of Luck!

I've cut out r9 and r10 from my original post as they were from the wrong day!

So lets get this right now that I am sober :-)

r9 Snort goes well first up and has a win here up the straight. Very quick and at the right odds. Sanjuan the danger but could come from a few others too.

r10 El Pauji goes well here and cracked a 1.23.63 close up 3rd. to Vormista over 1410m on this track in the dead 3 starts ago in a G2

r2-manna miss

r3-like one at a price ACES HIGH

r4-pinsemtoit,eskaw

r5-volcada

r6-press the button

r8-molotov,moreton bay

r9-electric general,snort,something anything

r10-ela ya mou

Well I am still going and doing this working on a deaish type track if the drainage is as good as they say then it ight not even be that.

Race 2: A couple I don't mind here Tremezzo and Illinois Girl with possibly a slight leaning to the later, I like some of her form nice run behind Imposing Way a couple of starts2 ago followed by a nice win after that drawn gate 3 with McEvoy aboard on the minimum sounds pretty solid to me. After that I gave a bit of a chance to Just Scarlett but the other 2 i favor alot more.

Race 3: I like the 1st emergency here Cheifcomingfirst, he atleast looks like he could be taking a step forward opposed to alot of the rest of these, Satinspin my next pick gets in nicely here off a solid geelong cup run, Completion will probably start fav by default looks a nice horse but certainly not unbeatable.

Race 4: I like Casual Kiss here she has been in fantastic form and if she can get in and get some cover I really feel she can get over the top of them, after that I like the other 2 emergencies here Imposing Way and Mixxer can't see them both getting a run though.

Race 5: No Thanks shocking race

Race 6: Might sit this one out aswell slightly interested in Atlantic Gold e/w but I think i would have to of won early to take a shot there.

Race 7: Purple Moon is my main selection his 1st up run was great in the caulfield cup and they say he can take up a more prominent position with Oli on board (I don't have a good record with him) this guy has to be tough to beat, Maybe Better I am sticking with maybe for the last time I would like to see the track dead for him he has been trained for this and his run on the weekend wasn't terrible a good solid tempo would suit him to a tee in this I think, Eskimo Queen alot of people are off of her and there really isn't a big reason other than the missed run in the caulfiled cup her form before then was 2nd to none and I feel she'll give this one almighty shake tomorrow, Mahler he looks like he wants a real strong tempo in this I know he is a 3yo but he is a classy one and would probably be weighted out of the race next year, atleast at his age he still might have a bit of a dash about him he will be a real english grinder this time next year.

I have others I like but they are my main selections for the cup might through in Sirmione and Master O'Reilly for a Trifecta not sure yet might look for some more value there to something like Blutigeroo.

Race 8: Not interested here

Race 9: Cargo Cult is one i don't mind at e/w odds but I really haven't looked to hard at this race.

Race 10: Scenic Silver I like here but once again haven't looked to deep in the form here.

Good Luck guys think we are all going to need it hopefully i can pick something up to keep punting out the week with.

Cup,

Narrowed it down to 4 picks: Zipping, Blue Monday, Purple Moon, Princess Coup.

After having a bit of a look over the last couple of races this is my thoughts

Race 9: Snort has to be hard to beat flies fresh no weight drawn the outside where they will probably want to be and likes the cut out of the ground slightly, dangers are Terango races well without luck most of the time, Dismissal the old boy has some decent form right now and if Rubiton Raider is a chance at all which the market suggests then he has to be included in your thoughts & Cargo Cult has plenty of ability whether he might want another run or not.

Race 10: bad race to finish with Scenic Silver still sits near the top of my selections, Straddle could easily win this and Aztec Smytzer might enjoy being back at flemington this is a weak race.

Race 2 ,
Thought Just Curious a good e/w..the barrier is a concern but i like her this distance,,she just needs to find some cover ...
Race 3,
Vicello very impressive last start and drops weight,,,Satinspin in good form and Completion suited...
Race 4,
Lauras Charm is the class but has the horror alley,,,,i still like her around this track,,she just needs alittle luck..

MC
I'm already on MAster O,,On Jeune and Black Tom..
I think Purple Moon will race midfield with Master O sitting just behind him..he'll get the good drag into the race and be very hard to beat...
Zipping has been very impressive....loved his last run and will be peaking for this..will need luck though..
OAJ,,i really think the horse has missed a run..but the young trainer knows the horse better than me and if hes fit can really give this a shake..

Master O / Zipping / Purple Moon / OAJ /...rough place chances to Mahler ,Sirmione,

Race 8
Thought Flash Trick with the sting out a good roughie,,,Eclare Passion a good place chance

Race 9,
Cargo Cult,,has ability and heard hes flying...21's is nice value..

Went looking for value tomorrow,,,,usual very hard day,,

other state selections
Mackay, Mersey beat
Adelaide, Merlot Now , Allstar ,
Ascot, Naval Seal
Taree, igothelastone

Best Bets ... Master O and also like my selections interstate..

got a tip for Dissmisal in the 9th,,,,worth including in your multis at the value.

Master O'reilly and Purple Moon seem to be the best win bets for the cup. My best value bets are Reshuffles e/w in the 4th and Snort in the 9th for a win.
Quaddie: 11,12 x 2,4, x 10 x 1,9

Have a good one!

Will the track stay dead all day you think?

i don't think it will stay dead

great start for me for the day with Illinois Girl winning also got the quinella not that it was a massive pickup

Had a little bit on Chiefcomingfirst in the next

Sad Race Red Lord won. I have only just jumped off him after following him for the last 3 starts. Typical!

I hear you there crash i had something on him the last 3 starts to just to get off today tragic race though always sad to see that happen

Track upgrade to Good 3.

Maybe Better out sad to see for Brian and connections but atleast the horses health comes first not always the case, I was worried the amount of miles he had in his leags this year thought it may have been a run or 2 to many just might be the case now, I have never seen so many scratchings out of a cup plenty of drama already.

Efficent? Has been running like a donkey!

After the results so far today, the only way to possibly get a win in this carnival is to forget studying the form and throw darts and hope!

Well I have had a great day got the trifecta backed Efficient e/w aswell as eskimo queen and purple moon in the cup, couple that with the win on Illinois Girl early on and I am wrapped and still punting :)

in defense of the form Efficient has been in nothing but walked races where they have sprinted the last 600 i still feel he would have been a big show in the cox plate if there had been any pressure on, today he got to the trip he wanted and the jockey who had been most successful with him.

the highs and lows,,,gutted after the MC and then Flash trick gets up and wooohooo the tri and 1st4 to go with it..
I thought Efficient was Zipping coming down the outside,,lol wrong colours..
looked like an idiot..
anyway i'm the one laughing now :)

i had three bets today

volcada - good win but fave unlucky

bulletin - what was i thinking?

dolphin jo - top run for fifth, i jumped on this horse late and was cheering in the straight but just didnt have the class to beat the others

1/3 great effort for me lol

i had multiples in the cup revolving around Maybe Better lol they were out the window after it got ruled out

Only one fav. [almost odds-on in r1] got up [whole carnival in fact, odds-on favorites only got up].

The only way to have a hope in this carnival is to follow favorite saddle-cloth numbers, Jockeys, trainers or barriers ect. Whatever you do ...ignore form. you will go broke if you follow that.

Next meeting I'm not going to bother wasting time with form, I'll be throwing darts!

actually crash u will probably find that hips don't lie in the first wasnt favourite. i think Viennese for Lee Freedman actually started favourite on course

so no faves won lol

even better
i may be wrong

Well I luckily backed Falsh Trick [$16.60w] with Blitzem Riley for the win and El Pauji [7.60w] in the last [post 5]. Saved my bacon for the day.

Belcentra was favourite and bet of the day and walked in too

As for Efficient, i probably would have backed him but already had him going in my cup double so didn't bother

He's only been set for one race and none of his runs have been terrible
Back to Flemington and a Zabeel - i'm sure he'll be back next year

In saying all that he was probably my #6 or #7 selection

Still laughing. The only thing I got back today is the refund from Maybe Better scratched.

yeah your right kirk douglas

should have remembered it cause my horse bulletin was beaten about 30 lengths by it. most impressive winner of the day......was never going to give the others a chance and it was backed like a winner

Efficient hasn't placed in 52 weeks yet wins the cup. The performance horse MO, doesn't fire a shot. What's a poor form boy to do?

By the time the race come around he was my 3rd selection I liked how settled he was around the mounting yard however I will say this was his last chance after having a decent bet on him in the Cox Plate I had enough but was always willing to give him one more go (same story with Maybe Better) this was the race he was set for and with the staying ranks in this country if he could get a nice run he was always going to be atleast an e/w chance, When they turned or home I thought Purple Moon had the race shot to bits which I would have been happy with as that would have given me a 1/4 of the 1st 4 aswell unfortunately I had to make a decision on whether to put Eskimo Queen on the top line or Efficient and went the wrong way, but I got a half share of the trifecta and the $20 e/w I had on Efficient gave me a very nice return out of the race for an outlay of about $150 far less than any of the last 4 years and just marginally better return than Makybe Diva's 1st cup win.

I was a little disappointed with the size of the trifecta thought it might have paid a bit more but I know alot of people who got it themselves so it would seem it was a fairly popular result.

Whatever EFFICIENT was on I want some of it.

By the way was there any enquiry by the stewards re the reversal of form.

darky.

I think you will find the flexi bet killed the trifecta

Lots of punters were having boxed field flexi's [hey, I got the tri.!]. I hate flexi exotics.

You'd think after Rogies speech Des miight have called an enquiry ,,, ,,

Loyd's the only man rich enough around the place that can use group 1's as barrier trials..

Seems everyone got the trifecta ,,the pathetic, miserly ,little ,barely there sum of $1700 ... hardly worth it imo ;)

Yeah.Most of them got the trif AFTER the event though.

darky.