Unitab and Pre-Post Market
 

I've been looking at pre-post markets (Daily Telegraph) where the fave is between $2.10 and $3.00. Its more than likely that a $2.00 p.p fave will start odds-on so I've passed-over these races. The method is;

1 ) The p.p fave must be between $2.10 and $3.00 inclusive.
2 ) must also be Unitab's sole 100 pointer.

The results from Thurs 1 Nov are: (Unitab divvies):

Thursday 1 Nov.
No bets

Friday
M.Valley R1 no.1 - Nil & $1.50
Mt Gambier R6 no.4 - $2.10 & $1.40

Saturday
Flemington R8 no.1 - $1.80 & $1.20
Gosford R6 no.6 - nil & nil
Rocky R7 no.1 - $2.30 & $1.30
Mt Isa R3 no.1 - $2.50 & $1.20
Mt Isa R6 no.1 - $1.60 & $1.00
Mt Isa R7 no.1 - nil & $1.10
M'ville R1 no.1 - $2.20 & $1.20
M'ville R5 no.3 - $3.50 & $1.50

Sunday
Hobart R6 no.1 - nil & $1.30
Hobart R7 no.1 - $2.20 & $1.30
Kilmore R4 no.2 - nil & $1.10
Kilmore R6 no.2 - $2.80 & $1.70.

By my calcs there have been 14 races for 9 winners paying a total of $21.00 and 13 placegetters paying $16.80.

I have not looked at W.Aust racing because I no longer bet at their venues due to their banning of Betfair.

I have also monitored the p.p fave regardless of its price and if it is not in Unitab's top 3 outright rankings then the Betfair fave is layed. Since 1 Nov there have been 9 such races and the Betfair fave has not won any of them.

Unfortunately there are no selections today for either the each-way or lay systems. If there are any tomorrow I will list them here.

do you know if the pre post markets are available online?? had a look on there racing page but couldn't find any pre post markets.

cheers

michaelg,


If the place strike rate holds up then should do Allups so that you have a good chance of making a nice profit. I would suggest going to about 8-10 races in a row.

Good Luck

Hi, Thorns.

The Telegraph's pre-post market is identical to that shown on West Aust TAB website. I think you will have to register with them to obtain the market, but its free which is surprising because of their and their government's "screw you" attitude to Betfair which is also screwing their own clientele.

Wesmip1. Yes, if the strike rate continues I will probably do so, and/or maybe a TAB parlay (I believe it has to be the same venue?) might also be the way to go.

thanks for that :)

Very interesting results Michaelg!

I don't have past access to p.p. info, but I might investigate that lay method and post back shortly.

Not so good going by favourites $2.10 to $3.00 outside the top three unitab ratings.

This year 154 selections for 50 winners.
24.40 units loss backing at TAB prices
15.84% LOT

To turn this into a lay profit would be hard with 100% markets and 5% commission.

It might be different using the p.p. market in conjunction though, the lowest rated winner was rated 84.

Forgetting about prices for a moment, lay any unitab horse rated less than 73 this year...

138 lays
1 winner ($3.10)

Profit = $134.90 at TAB prices.

Metro racing only considered.

CP,

Ran it over my entire database:

Selections 12041
Winners: 889 (7%)
WIN ROT : 73%.

So good chance of making a profit there. Ran it for those also at $10 or lower

Selections 3690
Winners: 647 (18%)
WIN ROT : 84%.

Not so good.... so it might be hard to be a proftiable system over the longer term as the long shots always go off at overs and its hard to make a profit...

Good luck...

Going back before this year...

1542 lays
return $373.70

This gives a total of 1680 lay bets for a lay profit of 1303.20 at TAB prices.

Let's say with some of these longshots you'd have to lay at TWICE the TAB price.

1680 lays
651.60 profit

That's 38.78% POT laying at double the TAB price :eek:

I have a feeling when eliminating maiden races and anything less than Open class in the country the results might be better.

I only have the data for Metro races.

Also I have not considered at all horses with no rating.

It might be worth converting the ratings to prices and working out a lay price for the lower rated runners that provides a profit.

Might be an exercise for Cup night :)

Interesting that the lowest rated runner for the Cup is 90 ?????

And that is Railings :eek:

Here are today's selections. I have eliminated from both the Bet and Lay methods any races where the pre-post fave is resuming from a spell. We'll see how they go...

Bet:
Flemington R6 no.3 - Belcentra
Cairns R5 no.1 - Citi Boy
Cairns R6 no.5 - Gunners Barracks
Taree R6 no.1 - Callinan

Lay The Fave:
Flemington R8
Flemington R9
Flemington R10
Canberra R5
Morphetville R5
Mackay R4

Well done on the win bets today Michael.

Does it matter if the Betfair fav ends up different than the Pre post fav?

Hi, Salty.

I'm hoping because of the conflict between the p.p market and Untitab rankings that the real market might not be too accurate. So I lay the horse with the lowest liability which is the Betfair fave. Yesterday provided me a small profit of 1.15 units from the 5 bets.

There were 3 winners from yesterday's 4 selections paying a total of $6.20 for Win bets and $3.90 for Place bets for a loss of $0.10.

Bet.
One selection today:
Kyneton R1 no.2 - Carnegie Lane.

Lay
From yesterday's 6 races (not 5 as stated in my previous post) there was one accident for a profit of 1.15 units.

One race today:
Murray Bridge Race 7.

Here's another Lay The Betfair Fave method I've been testing on paper. I omitted Maidens and races with 8 or less starters.

There's only one rule - the pre-post fave must not be in the top half Trainer rankings shown on the Betfair Aust Racing page. (I also originally began to test Jockey rankings but it did not perform so I discontinued it).

Since 1 Nov there have been 18 of these races, and the Betfair fave has been beaten in all of them. Maybe its simply a matter of coincidence but there's one way to find out - betting with real money which I'll do from today...and hope.

Kyneton R5
Kyneton R6
Kyneton R7
Murray Bridge R7.

HI all,
By coincidence I started doing the same thing starting last wednesday,
It was part of a rule for a place betting system that I was given yonks ago.
and actually someone mentioned this some years back on this forum.
I only have the provicinal and country tracks.
I'm looking at the favourite/non favourite at $2.00 - $3.80 paper price

I actually had four selections on the 1st oct for four wins. (all fav)

Hi, Feather.

It's good to know that it is the basis of an existing Place system. Hopefully it will prove successful.

Bet.
Yesterday's sole selections ran second paying $1.20. It should not have been a selection because it was a Maiden race but as I listed it here it will be recorded as a selection.

Today's selections:
Albury R4 no.3 - The Butler
Pakenham R2 no.2 - Moving On
Pt Lincoln R5 no.1 - One Wild Sea
Pt Lincoln R6 no.3 - Gun Bird.


Lay.
The fave in yesterday's sole race was beaten for a profit of 0.95 units.

Today's Lay races:
Flemington R1
Flemington r7
Rocky R8

A very bad day yesterday - no winners from the 4 selections and only 2 placegetters for a loss of $1.50. I'll give it a little longer and see how it goes.

One selection today:
Charleville R4 no.5 - Nine Covers.


Lay.
The fave in both selections yesterday were beaten for a profit of 1.90 units.

Today's races:
Stony Creek R5
Queanbeyan R6
Charleville R5
Charleville R7

The meeting for yesterday's sole Bet selection was abandoned.

Today's Bet selections:
Flemington R3 no.7 - Extend
Flemington R4 no.1 - El Mandon
Morphetville R7 no.4 - Macca's Mount


Lay
The fave in yesterday's two races was beaten for a profit of 1.90 units.

There have now been 10 successes from 11 races for a profit of 5.90 units.

Today's Lay races:
Flemington R1
Flemington R2
Flemington R8
Flemington R9
Morphetville R6
Geelong R8
Townsville R4

Trainer Stats.
 

Morning Michaelg,
Just mulling around your trainer lay thingy and I realized that the trainer with the best ranking on BF more often than not scores the worst on the neural trainer ranking. What's more the trainer with the worst ranking on BF scores max points on nuerals.
Don't know what this means (maybe it's just me misreading the data) but it does get scary for your system.
As an example Geelong R1 #5. Last on BF and 1st on TA neural.

Another
 

Flem R5 #4 shows 1st trainer ranking on BF and last on the neurals?????
******???

Hi, Two Bets.

Yes, the neurals can be very puzzling. I think they are based on the trainer's record at the distance and also at the track, whilst Betfair ranks the trainer by his/her's overall strike rate regardless of distance or track. Betfair also shows the trainer's (and jockey's) strike rate over certain periods including the last 100 races.

I would be more inclined to believe Betfair's ratings than the neurals, but others might disagree.

For the time being, I'm discontinuing the bet method.

Lay method.

Yesterday there was one accident from the 7 races for a profit of 2.30 units.

There have now been 16 smiles (Maria elegantly call losses "accidents" so I'll call successes "smiles", and hope it'll bring luck) from 18 races for a profit of 8.20 units.

Interestingly, if every horse in the 18 races including the fave had been backed to Win, then the outlay would have been $240 for a return on Unitab for $299.90.

Today's races:
Donald R6
Donald R8
Penola R5
Penola R6
Penols R7
Devenport R8

A very bad day yesterday - 2 accidents from 6 races for a loss of 4.70 units.

There have now been 20 smiles from 24 races for a profit of 3.50 units.

One race today:
Casterton R3.

I have been looking on-and-off at another lay Method which should make us very skeptical because of its illogical rules. They are:

1 ) No Maidens
2 ) Minimum of 9 runners.
3 ) Minimum of 13 points in the DFS poll.

For some reason these selections have not performed very well. For example, there were 10 selections yesterday - they were all beaten. Unfortunately I have kept no records. I have e-mailed NSW TAB a couple of weeks ago to see if their DFS archives can be assessed, but to date there has been no reply. Does anyone know if this can be done?

Out of interest, there are 2 selections today. I will list them and see how they go...

Casterton R4 no.1 - Boyd's Bay
Casterton R8 no.1 - Peratin

Hopefully the Forum Curse won't strike.

LAY

A bad day yesterday. The fave won the sole qualifying race for a loss of $1.70 units.

There have now been 20 smiles from 25 races for a profit of 1.80 units.

No qualifying races today.

LAY DFS Poll
Yesterday's two selections were beaten for a profit of 1.90 units.

Today's selections are:
Seymour R6 no.1 - Miss Gundowring
Mt Isa R3 no.2 - Turn The Dial
Mt Isa R4 no.2 - Olympic Vision
Mt Isa R6 no.5 - Golden Time

Correction - Mt Isa race 3 number 2 is Sundae Senor, and as there are only 8 runners it is NOT a selection.

Today
Mt isa
r5-1 - 3.00not fav
r6-1 - 2.25f
r7-2 - 2.80f
Seymour
r1-1 - 2.20f
r5-5 - 3.00f
r8-2 - 3.50f

maybe just started at the winning time.

I read system where horse must be between $5-$10 and in the top five ratings or selected in the top three by two pro tipsters. Fields with 7 runners or less are out.

Hi Feather ,

Your plan seems to be going well.

Can you say what the other rule about Trainers is once the $2.00-3.80 price of the possible selections have been targeted.

Cheers.

The system that I was given is for a place betting only on
Saturday at the four main metropolitan meetings.
The rules are also after scratchings is 8 runners,
and of course trying to get at least $1.30 for the place.
Just trying to adapt to midweek.

On checking Monday's accident, it was in fact not a qualifying race but as I listed it here I will have to record it as a genuine accident. At least the method is not in the red - yet.

Today's races:
Bendigo R4
Balaklava R2
Balaklava R5
Port Macquarie R7.

A good day yesterday - the fave was beaten in the 4 races for a profit of 3.80 units.

There have now been 24 smiles from 29 reaces for a profit of 5.60 units.

No qualifying races today.

Three races today:

Gundagai R4
Rocky R1
Rocky R7

Yesterday was a bad day - 2 accidents from the 3 races for a loss of 3.60 units.

Even though it is still slightly in profit I'll test another method:

The pre-post fave must not be in the top 4 in the DFS poll. There has not been much action but it has had a 100% success rate during the testing period. I'll see how it goes today.

Wyong R6
Sandown R9
Mornington R5

There are two more races but they are at Ascot where Betfair cannot operate. However, out of curiousity I'll still list them:
Ascot R2
Ascot R3

There was one accident of $3.60 from the three races yesterday for a loss of 0.70 units. However it would have been a winning day if Betfair could bet on W.Aust because the fave in the two Ascot races were beaten.

One race today:
Yarra Valley R5.

The fave in yesterday's only race was beaten.

There have now been 3 smiles from 4 races for a profit of 0.15 units.

No qualifying races today.

For some time now I have randomly been looking at Open races and I can't remember the fave ever winning any of them. There is an Open race today - it is:
Mackay R6.

One Lay the Fave race today:

Moe R8


The fave in yesterday's Open race was beaten.

The fave in yesterday's sole race won for a loss of 1.68 units.

If we had been able to lay Sunday's two W.A. races the method would be in profit so I'll continue a little longer and see what happens.

Today's qualifying races:
Ballarat R4
Ballarat R10.

Another W.A race:
Ascot R9

The fave in yesterday's two races were beaten for a profit of 1.90 units.

There have now been 6 smiles from 8 races for a profit of 0.27 units.

Today's races:
Port Lincoln R4
Port Lincoln R7.

The fave in yesterday's sole W.A qualifying race was also beaten which now makes it 3 smiles from 3 races.

No W.A. qualifiers today.