1 VICTORY VEIN Bede Murray 56
2 SUNDAY JOY Gai Waterhouse 56
3 ROYAL PURLER Gregory Hickman 56
4 PRIVATE STEER Lee Curtis 56
5 LAVISHLY Grahame Begg 56
6 SIERRA DANE David Payne 56
7 DARK TOPAZE Grahame Begg 56
8 MS BOWIE Allan Denham 56

They are saying that Private Steer is one outa the box !

Hi Rogan,

She is one out of the box. I seen her Kembla maiden win by over 10 lengths where she smashed the 1300m track record. Even though there have been 50 or so races over that distance in the last five years, maiden horses don't run the time she did unless they are very good.

Her speed figure from that run was 104 which is outstanding for a maiden and I had her a 6/4 chance for her race on the weekend. When she got out to $7.50 it was time to bet and the fact she won so easily was very satisfying.

In her weekend race she achieved a speed/pace rating of 101, notably it was exactly the same as that achieved by Victory Vein in her win last start over 1500m. If thats any gauge then Private Steer is very good (especially when you consider she has only had 3 starts and Victory Vein is already well seasoned).

History is littered with boom horses like Private Steer who go on to do little, but her numbers at this stage are first class. As I said, her last two runs have been 101, 104 according to my speed / pace numbers. Sunlines first three starts in Australia seen her produce numbers of 103, 100, 104.
At comparable stages, the runs of Private Steer are as good as Sunline. I don't put Victory Vein in that category simply because she is more seasoned and in her 2nd preparation is only now starting to produce figures in excess of 100.

Sunline obviously went on from that and developed further and the question about Private Steer is whether she can do the same. Only time will tell, but if she does, look out!

Victory Vein by a good margin.

Looking forward to this race with renewed interest. VV versus PS - let's hope it is a great spectacle!

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2002-10-03 17:38 ]

Don't leave out Ms Bowie, with Boss on board she could suprise!

Private Steer could be too good. It has much more improvement in it than Victory Vein.

osulldj
Have you taken into account the ease of some of Victory Veins wins when assessing her? She seems to do just enough to win but fights like a tiger when challenged. I have watched your posts on this forum as for some time now I have been of the same opinion as you in that in order to get an edge it is no use just following the crowd. Time handicapping has been much maligned in this country but your points are well made and I am endeavouring to learn more about it.As a weight handicapper of long experience it hurts me to say so. Any way I would be interested to know if you build fighting quality into your assessments.

There no such thing as a good thing! now there is no such thing as two good things!!

Think jock should have let VV run his normal race, jock was too focused on PS. PS was not disgraced - looking for more ground.

As always, the touted 2 horse race results in a "boil over"

I wonder if Mark cleaned up on that race with his never lose system?
Hope you did Mark!

Amazing how often this happens.

"The more races a horse wins back to back - the more likely it is to get beaten"
Words of wisdom from an 80 year old pro I met. I thought about it and realised there are great horses around - no matter how great they don't always win.

I don't know if his never lose system was able to work on that race but Mark did tip Royal Purler in the tipping competition so hopefully he put a few dollars on it with the bookies!

It only works on races that pay 1-2-3, ie 8 or more runners, but I did have a good win only through playing the %.
My bets were Sunday Joy 1000/40, Royal Purler 1000/40, Sierra Dane 900/30 & Ms Bowie 1000/50. Outlay 160, return 1040, not bad for 15 minutes work. Gotta love odds on favs. Here's one for quapi, SR1 Hawkes has 2 first starters, one at 9/10 & the other at 11/1, who would be stupid enough to back the favourite??? we all know the result.

Hi Legion,

Along with speed and stamina, courage or fighting qualities as you called it are the three ingredients of class and my methods take into account all three. Courage isn't something you can quantify in a rating but it factors in to your overall assessment of a horse, particularly when deciding if it can repeat its previous best runs.

I'm not sure how you come to the view that VV has great fighting qualities, the very fact that she has continued to win so easily (as you also said) means in my opinion that we don't really know yet. We certainly didn't see many fighting qualities on the weekend but it's all very well and good to say that after the race :smile:

I thought Private Steer ran a very good race. The comment someone made about Private Steer needing more ground is plain wrong. She wasn't seasoned enough to step up over 1600m. She was at only her fourth race start and it is a very rare horse that can compete over 1600m at that level after so few starts. Its a certainty that they can't complete over more than 1600m after so few starts so she certainly doesn't need more ground. She needs more time.

She showed me enough in that run to back up the sensational speed and pace she ran in her previous two. That suggests she has massive potential. Like all good young horses she needs to develop and show she can get stronger to go on and run even faster. I will make a prediction though that come this time next year, Private Steer will be the best Mare racing in Australia.