KC'S Place System
 

This thread to take over from the previous "Place System"
As explained on the last thread i used this one many years ago on a casual basis & refined it every now and then. I was only punting a day or 2 a week & didnt get too serious as i was punting for fun and didnt want to take the enjoyment out of it. With the success ive had with my #1 system i'm now able to punt for a living instead of work.
I've decided to take a different approach to designing this new system and have sat down to dust the cobwebs off this old one as a starting point.
Since i first posted some bets under the "Place System" thread a few weeks ago i've been able to sit down and rack the brain as to the finer details of this old system. Most i remember, and now ive put some time in i will use a few of my system #1 rules to revitalise this place system and see how we go.
In the next post i will put down those that made it through this latest criteria of the horses that ive posted on the other link only. i'm not going to go back in time beyond that.
From then on i'll update it pre + post race & see how we go.

THE FEW HORSES I ELIMINATED FROM PREVIOUS THREAD WERE DUE TO SLOW TRACK OR BEYOND 2400M.

Danzylum $1.80
Like It Is $2.80
Citi Boy $1.50
Splendorous $1.70
Tycoon Cut (4th)
Man Of Class $1.40
Arbitration $1.50
Natural Destinty $1.20

To Date:

Selections: 8
Placings: 7
Outlay: 8
Return: 11.9
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POT 48.75%

Wish you all the best with this place system. Hope to snare a few nice ones.

Yes, good luck. Looking forward to some BIG winnings. (Not really.... just being ahead would be nice ).

Tips for Saturday

Cheltenham
Race: 4 n: 1 Royal Player
Race: 5 n: 3 Soloist

Caulfield
Race: 2 n: 3 Mojo Pin

Ascot
Race: 8 n: 3 Ronnie

Good Luck

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Eliminating

Caulfield
Race: 2 n: 3 Mojo Pin

due to N.T.D.

__________________________________________________ _________________

Tips for Saturday

Cheltenham
Race: 4 n: 1 Royal Player
Race: 5 n: 3 Soloist
Ascot
Race: 8 n: 3 Ronnie

Good Luck

Hi,

Thanks for the picks!

Would like your thoughts on the following. I notice you dropped Mojo Pin as there is NTD that race. But there are still 7 starters, therefore the chances of a place = 2/7 or 28.6%.

Now, if there are, say, 14 starters in a race then there are 3/14 chances = 21.4%, or, say, 12 starters, then 3/12 chances for a place = 25%. And, of course, anything over 14 starters the place chance percentage becomes smaller and smaller.

Have never understood why people automatically run "scared" about that NTD factor when there are 7 starters in a race. Indeed the outcome often is that the place div. will be higher than could be expected.

Wouldnt say running scared, my stats provide me with the best options to take at all times.
As a place punter my records show i am no worse off taking or dropping when theres N.T.D. << figures are very close.
Which takes me to the theory of >> if you can take less bets for the same return then do so. This makes the risk of 'runs of outs' less.
I found a few criterias over time with my #1 system, that when dropped, had me take 40% less bets for the same return. This meant those extra 4 in 10 bets were running at no extra profit. << just waste bets giving only the negative of having the chance to give me out runs.
I understand your thoughts and other then the above cant knock anyone that decides to take the bet. I think its very much an individual move based on personal data and how each goes about their profit targets. I know from what i see written on this site that 2 people can have completely different systems ideas, bet in the same races and both be winners over time.

p.s. >>> i hope Mojo wins to be quite honest. because i'm interested to see over time how these go for the win bet aswell

Fair enough. Thanks for the thoughts. Good luck today.

Results Saturday

Royal Player $1.60

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To Date:

Selections: 11
Placings: 8
Outlay: 11
Return: 13.5
------------------------------
POT 22.72%

Tips for Wednesday

Mackay
Race: 3n:1 Cockaigne

Ascot
Race: 4n: 1 Parc D'Amour
Race: 6n: 3 Gallivanter


Good Luck

Results Wednesday .....3/3

and might i say what a crock of dividends << typical midweek garbage.

Cockaigne $1.50
Parc D'Amour $1.10
Gallivanter $1.20

Sportsbet Divies

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To Date:

Selections: 14
Placings: 11
Outlay: 14
Return: 17.3
------------------------------
POT 23.57%

Congratulations. Very well done. You can not get more impressive than that. 100% effort. I look forward to your next selection.

Tips for Saturday

Rosehill
Race: 4 n: 1 Miss Pageantry

Eagle Farm
Race: 4 n: 3 King Of The Nile

Cheltenham
Race: 5 n: 4 Big Production

Good Luck

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Results Saturday .....2/3

Miss Pageantry $1.10
King Of The Nile $1.20 << as stated on this site Group material this one
Big Production

Sportsbet Divies

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To Date:

Selections: 17
Placings: 13
Outlay: 17
Return: 19.6
------------------------------
POT 15.29%

Hey King.

This might go well with Macleans "Mathematical Formula."

Cheers.
darky.

Darky
Thanks had a look at that thread. Will pump some more out and see how we go in regards to betting strategies.

Tips for Wednesday

Townsville
Race: 5n:4 Youbeaut

Good Luck

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Look out for Dartbolt, Ruben & Stay All Day @ Sandown. All missed by (1) criteria only.

Results Wednesday ... 1/1

Youbeaut ! $1.60

Sportsbet Divies

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To Date:

Selections: 18
Return: 21.2

Placings: 14 /18
Strike Rate: 77%
------------------------------
POT 17.77%

Tips for Saturday

Ascot
Race: 2 n: 4 Gallivanter
Race: 8 n: 1 Tycoon Cut

Good Luck

Tips for Saturday

Morphetville
Race: 7n: 4 Quotation*

*late addition. Origianlly did form on a slow track, i believe its now dead.

Tips for Boxing Day

Randwick
Race: 5n: 3 De Riguer

Cheltenham
Race: 8 n: 8 Barker Lad

Good Luck

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To Date:

Selections: 22
Return: 24.2

Placings: 16 /22
Strike Rate: 72.72%
------------------------------
POT 9.99%

Tips for Saturday

Ascot
Race: 3 n: 2 Lexicon Gold
Race: 4 n: 10 Week Bix
Race:5 n:9 Nairobi

Good Luck

Results Saturday ... 3/3
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To Date:

Selections: 25
Return: 28.3

Placings: 19 /25
Strike Rate: 76%
------------------------------
POT 13.2%

how long u been running this for?

This particular system? I'm only trialling it......... see >> post #1

First made up about 3yrs ago to help as a guide to then make picks when betting non-proffesionally. Dropped, to concentrate on #1 system. Now looking for 2nd system so have re-birthed to use as a starting point. Using a few criterias as i use in my #1 system to help though.

Expectations is 5% -10% POT as it seems to pull to many shorties. I am not betting on it until i see it stablise and sit nicely inside some 90 day / 15 day average bands.

System #1 uses 20% stats 80% market
This One 100% stats.

There's a few i wouldnt have taken had the market played a part and have lost but i've been taking note had i dropped them. I think if it can produce the selection then the market decides yes or no before jump then a favourable outcome between 10% -15% would be more like it & perhaps 80% stats + 20% market might be close to it.

King,


How is this system going, things have been a bit quiet. Will you be posting any tips for tomorrow.

Tips for Saturday

Morphetville
Race: 3 n: 1 Would You Believe

Good Luck

Just for you, I got $500 a place on Randwick race 7 number 3 COME ON CUGAT

Hope thats winnings from your Xavier bet in the 1st << King Cugat sired.
or a bit from Spanish Kings place at Newcastle just before << King Cugat
The 1/2 brother to my 2yo Cugat is racing soon in Sandown >> Passing Salute

A Tip for Tuesday

Muswellbrook
Race: 6 n: 8 Fillatte

Good Luck

I have no doubt that as a 80% market driven 20% stat man for all this time i cant get my head around doing it the other way. I cant post bets on stats alone & succeed without the betting ring having a say. Other can i cant. That last race had Carnegie Prince get backed in from $4 > $2 in the ring. What stats can compete with that? Nobody in their right mind would bet AGAINST a fluc like that. Even Carnegie Prince came up a a bet on my own system.
SO there it is this trial system is being put to bed. It confirms my theory, to myself, that the market is a better indicator then the stats. Some stats i couldnt do without but there is a limit of just how many are a positive factor ....for me.

No argument from me. The stats only tell us what we know, the market tell's us what we don't know.

100% Pixie 100% I like that quote >> a keeper. what i know but summed up nicely.

If i had the best stat man in the world standing next to me in the ring with a good thing, & on the otherside a bookie rolling a horse in from say...$3 > $2. i wouldnt even ask the stat man who he was refering to.
The $3 > $2.... the stats are somewhere in there anyway but so too is the trainers opinion, morning blood test, track work, fitness and all the things we just dont see in the form guide. So happens the things we dont see in stats are the important things.

I just find most of the time that the best backed runner never wins.

That sounds like a recipe for success in laying then! :)

never?

If you take them all, the strike rate of them winning compared to odds would have you losing. The strike rate of them all placing compared to odds would have you losing. Its the ones you learn to not take that leave you with the margin.

How do you know which ones to leave alone?

The ones that halves its price inside the last 15mins are the ones worth backing right?