Betfair SP
 

So after two nights of Betfair SP, what do people think? Had a play last night and liked it. How easy is it to trade now :)

I have no idea, because it's a lottery what the SP price will be.
I can't trade because I don't know which way the price will go and can't hedge because I don't know what the profit or loss will be ???

Am I missing something....I think I am :(

Chrome

It might have just been me last night, but if you choose the SP option that shows the NEAR and FAR(i think) SP prices, and place a lay on the Near price, then a back at the FAR price and selected to keep the bet alive in running, I got matched EVERY TIME. Lay at 4, Back at 20. Lay at 5, Back at 9. It didn't really matter. It was as if somebody was telling you what was going to happen. :eek: Closer to the jump the prices seemed to converge and were less useful.

Thanks Angry Pixie,

I know very little about it, as I've been hesitant to dip my toe into something so new.
From what you've written,it would be possible to back and lay the entire field for profit without the worry of fluctuations, but I suspect there will be loopholes closed once people get comfortable with it and identify opprtunities.

For myself, I've gone back to my old hunting ground of backing and laying the entire field for a profit. There is less risk and less bank required than trading and hedging and far less fluctuations in returns than backing or laying straight out.

What's interesting for me, is that the very high liquidity races I eek out around 2% profit, but on US races with very thin liquidity, I'm able to get 20% to 30% returns early.

It's great to have layed three quarters of the field and already be in profit, even if the other bets don't get matched.

Chrome, great to hear the old angles still work :)

I suspect you're right and the loopholes will close. I only had a very small go last night as sleep was more important. But again every BACK was matched in running.

CHEL 2345 Ornais (L3.3 B4.9)
STHL 2355 Two Acres (L4.2 B6.4)
CHEL 0020 Ofarel DAiry (L6.4 B9.8)

Are we able to bet in running with SP?

:eek: :D

Not in running, but you can elect that your bet is not cancelled at the jump. Effectively making it an in running bet. It's a huge leap forward. Hope it's not a mistake ;)

It's actually nothing to do with the SP bit, but the change in the user interface.

It's a real shame that the "upgraded" screens are a huge backward step. Now full of bells and whistles that do nothing but get in the way. The site is now slower and jumps every time a bet is matched. Things that used to be 1 or 2 clicks are now 2,3 or 4 clicks away, and when you are a busy trader, each second adds up. I will be massively reducing my turnover until it's fixed............and knowing BF's (now) monopolistic attitude to their customers, that will be never.

Thankyou Angry Pixie, this information is absolutely HUGE for me.
I've been chomping at the bit to get a slice of the very lucrative in running market.
I see huge areas for profit.

I've seen markets where three or four horses will trade at $1.50 or shorter in running, yet only one can win ;)

I would say that almost every race at least two horses will trade at $1.50 or less.

You cannot lose.

O.K. not every race, but there are enough to make good money.

Where did I hear those fateful words before!?
Just joshing.
Good luck

Good point Iomaca,

How many cannot lose scenarios have turned out to be lemons or wolves in sheeps clothing.
However, any time or place you can lay more than one horse in the same race at odds on, means a guaranteed profit, even if they're nose to nose at the finish line.
I know it's probably not as simple in execution, but it just might be and that's a very exciting prospect.

Hi Angry Pixie cann't seem to find that not cancelled at the jump box!!
Is it the set sp odds limit box ( tried this box but bets got canceled at the jump)
thanx

Crackone

All I did was fiddle with the options a bit so you can see the FAR and NEAR SP's. The "keep when in running" option was just there. You may not see it in every race though I'm not sure.


Mark

Yes the interface has been slowed down your'e right. I haven't used the Betfair interface for anything other than transferring between wallets, and checking account balances for ages. I use Fairbot for almost everything else. Even with the advances we're taking about, it's much easier to set the position with Fairbot, then go to the Betfair UI to keep the bet's in running. I heard the designer of the new interface say that after alot of market research they realised that the old interface put off many new users. I always found it pretty straight forward myself. Regardless the market changes far outway the extra clicks in my opinion.

AP, I had a look at the new at the interface the other day when I stumbled accross it while laying. Can't say I understood it. I actually ticked the take at the jump option as I assumed the leave in-running option only applied to the UK.
Anyhow, following your post (I havent been online for 2 weeks. Thats how long Telstra got around to fixing my phone line) I thoughy I'd give it a go by following your suggestions. it might not have been the best night to start as I'd been down the pub all arvo. Anthow the results were phenomenal. After waking up this morning I found nearly an extra $500 in my account. I used only minimal $6 bets and the corresponding lays. I had about 12 bets and only one lost ($80) It wasn't matched for the win. All the others were. I couldn't believe the bets that were matched e.g lay 10 back 29!! was common.
I think I owe you a bottle of Johnny Walker.
Any idea where I can research the concept further?
regards

I cannot get the bets to turn inplay.
They are cancelled as soon as they jump :(

Worked for me last night, although actually lost a couple of shekels, only token bets at this stage though. Chrome, once you've placed your bets, you have to click on my bets tab and change from cancel at jump to keep. I'm sure you will work it out. I placed lay bets at 1.05 on shorties for about $100 so minimal losses as opposed to the chance for big collects. Many got taken in the last ten seconds of the race, unfortunately they held on.

Dr Ron,

Something just doesn't work for me, I tick keep bets but they just vanish as soon as the race jumps.
With those 1.05 bets, just keep perservering, you will lose a lot of them, but you only need a couple to get done and you'll get back those sheckels ;)

Chrome, must be some sort of issue with your settings? I am sure you will work it out, as with laying at short odds, as you pointed out previously , near the end of the race if it is close there will be 2 or 3 that are under the 1.50 mark., so i tend to place 3 or 4 bets in the one race at similar odds hoping that the race is close and some of them are taken up. I tend to think the shorter races with a limited odds spread are good ones to invest on as they may provide close finishes which is what I/m hoping for.

Dr Ron,

This might help you, I don't know, but I'll share some research I did with you.

In a fight to the line or a photo, a favourite will nose out a longer priced horse 9 times out of ten.
If a favourite runs a place or is trading at less than $2.00 in running, they win about 80% of races and return a very big profit.

In other words, if a favourite is trading large in running, they rarely win.

So, if you can back a favourite at half it's prerace price in running, it's a damn good bet.
If you can lay a favourite at double it's price in running, it's also a good bet.

The problem arises, that you only want to bet "IF" the price is low in running and they will match if the price is better

So the way I use this information in my research is to lay any horse at big odds at short prices, because more often than not, they'll run out of puff or get overrun. The payout on the ones that win is minimal anyway.

So a good lay is a 20/1 shot trading at $1.50.

$1.01 or $1.05 is a little too short as they are almost to the line in that case.

If I could only match odds on horses if they trade at less than 50% of that price I would be doing extremely well.

As a little bit of proof, if you backed only favourites running in the first three 200m out from the line (thus trading significantly shorter), you'd return 41.93% profit using only TAB prices :eek:

20,000 plus races analysed.

Thanks for that info Chrome, will take it on board, I dare say that if you can overcome your problems in getting your bets kept in running you may make a dollar or two.

Trying again on South Africa, keep you posted.

Burrah

No worries but I'm more of a Guiness man ;) It's hard not to get matched isn't it :eek:

Another thing to look at are those horses that have the only FAR SP in the market below 2. There aren't that many but backed one of these last night at 10.50 and it bolted home to win.

EDIT: Sorry I wrote NEAR SP instead of FAR SP.

I got it working - how good's this :D

Burning the midnight oil to bring you all some revelations ;)

1st December to 9th December

671 horses traded at $1.50 or less in-running (including 1.01ers)

Only 471 of these gas guslers won, leaving 200 horses trading at $1.50 or less and not winning.

A lot traded below $1.50, way below $1.50, but for this exciting exercise here's the workout.

377 traded at 1.01 and 4 lost giving no profit after commission.

352 traded at 1.05 and 16 lost giving no profit after commission.

414 traded at 1.10 and 33 lost giving 5 units loss without commission added.

327 traded at 1.20 and 35 lost giving 23.40 units loss without commission. added.

362 traded at 1.50 and 106 lost giving 22 units loss without commission.

They do get beaten, but unless you're selective, laying these blighters leads to the poorhouse.

Commission would also kill backing them, you might make 1% if your lucky.

Hope I saved someone some money.

The best scenario is to back early and trade out later as even if they look like winning 30% of them lose.

Imagine eliminating 30% of losers ;)

Incidentally....

596 horses traded at 2.00 in running

299 of them lost

giving 2 units loss before commission.

The market is extremely accurate.

Well done Chrome, I knew you would get it working. What was the actual problem? Pixie, I only just discovered the near and far prices, will experiment with your method tonight.

Dr Ron,

I use a bot to place my bets, as I do a lot of them at once, and "keep bets" was checked, but I also needed to tick inplay down below.
All fixed and thanks for the help.

Just outof curiosity, Chrome when do you sleep?

I sleep usually around 5am to 12 midday. And that's flexible too.

Usually my daily plan works out like this:

Noon: Up and calling on clients out on the road
The days I don't have calls to make, have a go at the races til 5:30 ish
Come home have tea and watch some tele.
Set up for South Africa and UK races, probably takes 2 hours to set up what I have to properly.
Have TV going between races at night
Bed 3,4,or 5 am depending on the racing roster.

Been known to stay up all night for US races when on a good roll, but it's real bad for your health.

New Year's resolution is to get everything done and be in bed before midnight and let the bot get tired instead of me ;)

Ron

I took a small hit with that method last night :( looks to work best if you restrict yourself to those selections where the FAR price is shorter than the NEAR price. So you back the NEAR price and put a keep lay on the FAR price. That's worked everytime with the fav. Backing the sole horse with a FAR price below 2 about 5 min from the jump worked again though.

Chrome

I hear you with the sleep thing. It's when you start to forget things during the day and your skin looks flushed that you need to worry.

Angry Pixie an Dr Ron,

I have something that might interest you, if you'd like to send me an email to racestats at hotmail dot com, I'm prepared to share it with you off forum.

P.S. I got a whopping $2.20 about at $1.40 shot in the USA this morning, gotta love it :D

Angry Pixie

Can you explain what the Far and Near price means, and also how you get them up on the screen.
I had a go last night. Got the SP up allright, but couldn't find any Far and Near.The timing was a couple of hours before the first race, could that have anything to do with it?

Salty sorry only just saw this.

The FAR price is derived from bets at SP only whereas the NEAR price is a combination of SP and current Exchange prices. Did you work out your interface problem?

Hi Angry Pixie,

How you going with that angle I gave you.
I've been cleaning up - going to be a very good year ;)

Chrome. Great many thanks! Works for a few others in the market too. I'm seriously considering giving up the Australian market altogether. When there's close to AUD$2,000,000 of turnover on a Pommie Sunday Novice Hurdle you've just got to get heavily involved.

This sounds great.
Could someone please advise me as to how to display the SP.

In the more options section I have selected
Display Near/Far Odds
Under the heading
Projected Odds (SP)

But it says
Displays only when Betfair Starting Price (SP) is selected.

How do I select this?

I don;t see anyway to activate this.

Cheers

Brownie

Get out of more options , and back on the normal screen you will see choices to tick re Back&Lay, Market Depth, and SP. - just above all the prices. Good luck.


Angry Pixie
Thanks for your reply. I've finally got it worked out and might have a go at it tonight. Are you still doing well with it?

Hi Salty
Thanks for the reply
Yea, both those are ticked.
I am thinking it is a browser version issue.
I am running IE 6

Brownie, you'll only see this on English races. Browser version shouldn't be an issue.

Ding!!!!

I think that might be the issue AP

Thanks, I'll look tonight.