My BetFair Lay Adventure
 

I won't have time to follow this closley today, so just thought i make my lay selections to see if they lose and so are successful for me.

I'll assume that my lay will be matched as the odds i will set will be at a premium to the tote odds (by 2.00 units). So this will attract a backer since its good odds for the selection. This is done so I could work out my potential liabilities and so calculate a p/l at the end of the meet. Liability limit is 100~ units. When I have more time, closer to the jump I'd set my odds based on what the history of trades has been so I know what the betfair market has been paying and set my odds accordingly.

tote = tote.com.au

Starting Bank: 1,000

Geelong
WIN only
Race 2:
8-The Lion King
8.50 tote / 10.50 betfair
Stake: 6
Liability: 63

Race 3:
10-Tan Jugah
12.10 tote / 14.10 betfair
Stake: 6
Liability: 84.6

Race 5:
1-Furious Dee
9.20 tote
11.20 betfair
Stake: 6
Liability: 67.2

Race 6:
6-Muzza's Star
8.20 tote
10.20 betfair
Stake: 6
Liability: 61.20

Race 7:
5-O'reilly Tycoon
15.20 tote
17.20 betfair
Stake: 6
Liability: 102.20

Total Liabilities: 378.2

Good luck pengo.
IMHO your risk/reward ratio is totally out of whack.

Yeah I'll see how I go over the course of a week.

Also want to try laying the favourite 5m to jump, see how that goes over a week. And if that don't work too well or even if it doesn't, dutch laying the radio tab top 3 selections.

Without consideration of the lay odds, picking horses won't work.

Example - Lion King was $16.50 on Betfair.

Tan Jugah is $26.00

You make no sense....

Lion king didn't win, so my lay was successful.

So long as the lay is successful, then who cares what the odds where?

Yes Pengo, you are correct, but you are missing the point of the maths being flawed.

You can trial something at $1.10 for every selection and you'll win, but the real world price will break you.

Yes, the horse lost and you won, but just one of those horses winning at the real price will strip all the profit from the losers, because you estimated an unreal price.

You might have a winner free day, but even 7 days down the track just one winner at $75.00 instead of $20 will kill the bank.

Don't forget that you are also inflating the amount won, instead of $6.00 for a liability of $100, you'll only win $2.00 for a liability of $100 because the price is so much more.

Yes, I appreciate this but I'm expecting a high success rate with my lays. Also I would not lay a 75-1 shot, as I am keeping in mind I don't want to kill the bank. You guys keep saying but what about the 100/1 shot but I'm not laying a 100/1 shot coz I can't at a stake of 6. Also you forget that my max liability on any selection will be 100~.



How do you figure I get back 2 when I get paid 6 (or slightly less after commission)? At all times I stake 6 for a max liability of 100 for any selection.

This is just a really rough guide to see if I can be successful over the course of a week. You have to walk before you can run, I'll worry about the odds later.

Here's a real example:

Favourites lose 13.65% at TAB prices,so IF you could lay at TAB prices you would win 13.65% less commission.
You would hypothetically make 8.65% return over time.

What happens when you lay just 10% over those odds at Betfair, you now have a base of 3.65% profit, less commission - you now lose 1.65% laying them. A lot of favourites trade at well over 10% better odds, especially the easy favourites in the market.

Now scroll down to outsiders, the odds are way over 20%,waaay over.

It doesn't add up to profit, you will make money for a while, but the end result is big loss.

I'll keep that in mind.
Thanks

I see what you guys mean about being matched, my selection for race 7 is showing some stupid odds for the lay.

I think I'll need to play with the outside chances (5/1-7/1) so I could stake 10 so that, after 10 plays I have made a "liability buffer" (e.g. profit is now 100 so if one horse loses before I make another 100 [10 consecutive successful lays] I got back to break even).

Pengo, sorry it's hard to come across as helping when someone is dipping their toe in for the first time, it comes across as bagging you, and that is certainly not the intention.

I just don't want you to make the same mistakes as hundreds including me made when first laying horses.

There are plenty of horses to lay at TAB prices or better especially today ;)

I'd rather lay a 20/1 TAB horse at $19.00 on Betfair than lay a $9.00 TAB horse at $15.00 on Betfair.

Its all good Chrome, I'm just a stubborn Capricorn!

Now onto my crazy results ;)

Starting Bank: 1,000

Geelong
WIN only
Race 2:
8-The Lion King
RETURN 69

Race 3:
10-Tan Jugah
12.10 tote / 14.10 betfair
RETURN 90.6

Race 5:
1-Furious Dee
RETURN 73

Race 6:
6-Muzza's Star
close call it came 2nd. heh.
RETURN 67.20

Race 7:
5-O'reilly Tycoon
RETURN 108.20

Total Liabilities: 378.2
Total Return: 408
Profit/Loss: 29.8

Ending Bank: 1029.8
Bank Profit/Loss: 29.8

Just to be stubborn like you, the real result is this ;)

Lion King @ $16.50 profit $6.45
Tan Jugah @ $75.00 profit $1.35
Furious Dee @ $13.00 profit $8.33
Muzza's Star @ $6.00 profit $20.00
O'Reilly Tycoon @ $24.00 profit $4.34

Total Profit $38.44 less commission laying at $100 liability.

profit so ner!!!!!!!!!!!!! hehe :D

Only one accident needed.

Paramedics are on their way ;)

In fact to ensure you were matched it's more like below :eek:

Lion King @ $23.00
Tan Jugah @ $85.00
Furious Dee @ $13.50
Muzza's Star @ $6.60
O'Reilly Tycoon @ $65.00

Pengo Away!
 

What about slowing things down a bit and utilize a little of this Chrome Plated wisdom in combination with your ideas. Look for the ones that show a premium....

e.g. Bairnsdale R6 #9 was showing $30 to $50 on most tabs and yet you could easily get set for under $8 on Betfair. Bet more but less often is a ploy that imho carries much value.

Tomorrow I might consider doing 3 horses per race, looking at horses showing 5 to 10 on the tote. Stake 10 so after 10 successful lays have enough in the bank in quick enough fashion to cover any accidents. Tho we have to go 10 straight
first!

If i back more winners than losers, I might have to switch the system into backing and not laying!

Pengo

I used a system maker to create the crapiest system I could think of (while still actually capable of making selections) for the sole purpose of creating lay selections. Within the first month my bank was bust. My crap selection system actually made a profit. It only took 2 winners.
Here are the selections for Sat 5th
Haven't checked the results.

05/01/2008 SANDOWN

MR 4 #10 9x18 PLAN AHEAD

05/01/2008 NEWCASTLE

XR 6 # 7 98x OBERKOMMANDO

XR 6 # 9 808x NIKIFOROS

05/01/2008 MORPHETTVILLE

AR 6 #10 0578 LAVA FLOW

05/01/2008 MORPHETTVILLE

AR 6 #10 0578 LAVA FLOW

05/01/2008 IPSWICH

XR 1 #11 8 BLUEFIRE MAGIC

XR 2 #16 09x8 CAWDOR TONY

XR 7 #10 698x MAKEDA

Just because you have failed doesn't mean I will :)

Also you said you made a profit but busted your bank, that doesn't make sense.

He made the crappiest system, ie a big loser, so he could lay them on Betfair. Therefore, it was a backfitted system. Immediately, the system started to win (on win bets) meaning he did his Khyber Pass on laying.

Here's food for thought, given the bias towards longshots being way overpriced on Betfair, I've always lived by this saying in punting terms, as it's proven in the data.

"The worse a horse is, the more you'll lose laying it, unless you can find a way to lay it lower."

Think about the words contained in that saying, it summarizes why people lose money, the thought process is a punting thought process and not a laying thought process, the very first danger to the novice layer.

Imagine a rails bookmaker offering $5.00 about a $3.50 shot or $1000 about a $150.00 shot, then think about how much they make, 15% to 20% less turnover tax and track fees and licences.

And people want to lay horses higher? Madness :eek:

If bookies gave Betfair prices about horses, there would be no bookies within a month or less, and that is why layers have to lay smart and not take what is offered just because they think it won't win.

If I lay this horse at this price and it wins at the expected ratio, will I make a profit - unfortunately the answer is usually no, especially when commission is factored in.

I posted this before, but favourites at Canterbury are overbet and so are first starters, you can make a profit laying at betfair prices plus commission, and there are plenty of other angles also. There are many more thatwill bust you at Betfair prices though. You must research before putting hard earned on or guessing or picking.

Horses at 100/1 on the tote, the breakeven is $304.00, but most of them you have to lay at 500/1 or more, meaning you'll lose a minimum of 65% plus commission laying them.

Staggering.

You will however win for approximately 300 races before you make a whopping loss.

Very sobering.

Or maybe none. There's nothing to say it won't get up on your first lay. :(

" the thought process is a punting thought process and not a laying thought process, the very first danger to the novice layer".

I could not agree more CP. Most people operate with punters brains and not bookies brains. Not saying they are wrong, BUT, you cannot go into laying expecting to make consistent profits using a punters brain.

I've been laying (probably around 98% of my t/o) successfully on BF for 5 years now. I don't think I'd make it as a punter any more as I just don't have the right mindset. I have 2 friends, both wanted me to show them what I do.

Let's call them B & G.
B sat with me for hours, even taking notes (very flattering), and now makes a regular part-time income from BF. He is disciplined (extremely important) and single minded. He did not have a losing market last year until mid-way through December, when by his own admission he was working while tired, and trying to force a price. He does not ever bet on horses ! He regularly rings me to say "have a look at such and such a market".
G on the other hand wanted the quick fix. "Show me one race, I'll pick it up", he said. Needless to say, whenever I see G, he usually starts with, "went to the TAB, nearly got a big trifecta etc, haven't looked at BF for a while, might try it tomorrow".

B is no smarter than G, but he has discipline, a major factor in defining who will win and who will not.

Laying is completely different to backing. I've heard people say it's the same but the opposite. Succesful laying is not, it is much more. As Chrome put it, it is a completely different thought process.

As an example, last Saturday, who gave Danewin Lodge a chance of winning. Certainly not me, I had it running closer to last. It was my best result of the day by far. Different mindset.

Best of luck to anyone who takes on laying.

So true, AP :(

But perhaps it gets more dangerous the longer you win.

Mark are you basically saying that a good lay process is -

A: pick and choose specific horses, who you think are either no chance (and are in the market) or are gross unders, and lay them specifically

or

B: try to lay an entire market, at about 110%, by putting up prices early then adjusting, adjusting, adjusting, monitoring totes/bookie flucs, etc, to try to "balance a book", like the old style "figures bookies"

Would you say you are one, or both, or neither of these? Also, what are your comments on the viability of those two methods for potential lay punters? Interested in Chrome Prince's thoughts on this, too, and anyone who would like to offer an opinion.

110%..........now wouldn't that be nice!!! I worked 10 races on Saturday, averaged 95%, and only won on half of them, but still had a winning day.

I used to work for one of the old style figures bookies, probably the best in the game.

I find myself being somewhere in the middle of the options you've given.
I do some form study, I look at gear changes, do rating's for the better races, and then try to lay accordingly.
When I work a race I always try to make the fav the worst result. I don't lay horses @ 10 or more, unless I've rated them as no chance. I try to have no losers, but when this doesn't work, I try to have no more than 2 losers. In Danewin Lodges race, he was the only runner I didn't lay.
1 break even, 2 loser (fav), 3 winner, 4 winner, 5 winner, 6 small loser, 7 a skinner. I gave 1,6 & 7 no chance, and laid accordingly, except 7 which was over 100/1. I did well this race achieving 103%.

I don't know that there is a set way of winning, everyone has a different approach, and what works for one, may not work for another.

Hi Grand Armee,

I'll let Mark speak for himself as he is the master at making books.

For myself, I dabble in a mixture and it really depends on the type of race (number of runners, price of favourite).

In a general open race, I try to lay below market price (there are many ways to achieve this), I do extremely well in very small fields with an odds on runner making books.
The best race for me is 4 or 5 runners with a heavy odds on runner.
I can consistently make at least 110% market, because it's pretty obvious what will drift and what will firm, especially if you get in hours before the race on UK markets.

On the occasions I get it wrong and the favourite drifts and second or third fave comes in a point or two, I can usually trade out of trouble.

It is very hard to get horses outside the top 4 in the market at bookies odds.

I never look at horses with less chance because you usually have to lay them too high, because the public also think they are no chance.

I concentrate on which horse I'm most likely to get matched at under tote odds, and it usually isn't the favourite ;)

I also look at various ways to lay significantly under the tote price.

When you get it right making books, it's a buzz.
When you get it right trading it's also a buzz.
When you lay well below tote odds - buzz.

When any of these scenarios don't pan out, it can be disasterous.

Above all, I reckon you must have a second approach or way to get out without risking the entire stake.

Right now I lay, trade and make books, form or picking horses has very little to do with anything remotely regarding my experience on Betfair, except when I see very good overs on a champion racehorse or pacer.

I should add that what I've written above is what I do on Aussie races, the UK is completely different. I only make books when I can lay at over 100%. Right now I'm part way into backing every runner in the Southwell 23.50 (QLD time). Should be able to get them in at around 97%, and that's after laying them all at around 105%.....double buzz!!!


And speaking of books over 100%, has anyone been looking at the US Presidential markets?.............pure gold.

Mike Huckabee still at 20/1, I would have thought 10/1 is closer to the mark.

lol, I laid him at 20 just now !!!!, but I can afford to after catching Obama for good money @ 2.26.

Grand Armee

I'm Layer "Type A", although I never think a horse has no chance, there's always the chance of a "Bradbury". Therefore my selections must be unders. I have a bit of an outside-the-square approach to making my selections that over time has proved to my advantage. Unlike Mark I'm a high volume layer and churn the bank making the most of a small advantage.

Mark, I'd have layed Danewin Lodge if I could have got my price. I layed the following. I'd normally have ignored Les Roses but was trying something new on this race. I managed to green up on it so there'd be no real damage done.

RAND05-02 Les Roses
RAND05-03 Viva Caro
RAND05-04 Jujulio

Reading this thread highlights on of the things I like most about punting. There's no one way to make a success of it. You can do it your own way and still finish ahead.

Thanks guys, for your input. I am interested because you guys are, from what I can gather, real "traders". I have known both types of people, the traders and the analysts. Originally, when I was learning to be the latter, I blindly considered that the analyst was superior to the trader. I figured, on reading books by people like Scott, Beyer etc that the person who could be BETTER than the market was the true King of the game. Traders didn't occur to me. Then, when I was working amongst traders, I began to see that side of the game, too. On racing trading floors, a lot of money moves around between bookmakers and totes, sometimes without much input from the punters at all!

It is my firm opinion, now, that the true King of the game is the person who can master both. If you are an excellent form analyst, and an excellent trader, surely you have the world at your feet.

For example - Mark is trying to back the field at 97% at Southwell, having laid them at 105%. Nice piece of trading, you'll have a nice guaranteed profit. That's straight, pure trading.

What if, though, Mark (or Mark's split personality, let's call him Kram), had done the form for the race also. Kram said, "Mark, I've done the form. It's a three horse race, but really, it's only a two horse race. Liz Long cannot win. It's $17.50 to back at the moment, $25 to lay. Just lay it, don't waste our money, Mark, backing it also. Further, don't lay Just Mossie. Back him, but don't lay him. The fave, Home, is his right price, trade your way on him."

If, overall, Kram is a better analyst than the market, then he will improve your figures. Liz Long runs a long last, Home and Just Mossie fight it out - whoever wins it's not a worry, you have your position.

The "analyst" approach, where the punter takes the market on, and the "trader" approach, where the punter works with the market, are like Yin and Yang, they are real opposites but intertwined. The "analyst" will have big peaks and big troughs, such as he/she must when they are taking the market on, whereas the trader will have a LOT smoother ride. It really does seem to me, though, that the best method of all is to perfect them both.

Oh I think my post snuck in there. I'm sure Grand Armee wasn't meaning me when he said "you guys". :o

Mark are you using the stay in running on the UK markets? Works great for the soccer too.

The trader has a smooth ride when he gets matched, when he doesn't get matched, it quite a bumpy ride downhill :(

In play is the greatest thing since sliced bread :D

I had a little dabble the other night for mixed results. I'm finding it hard to stay up late.

Yes, my crap selection method made a profit if you were BACKING them...not laying them.

It does make sense.

Yea for sure, it doesn't mean that you won't.

Cheers

OK because Mark (and Kram) mentioned that race at Southwell, I've had a little play on it, as a trader, just for a bit of fun. I'll tell you what I've done, we'll see how it works out. At this point, I am likely to get burned!


I have laid the fave, "Home", at $1.41, for $1000, risking $410. I now have a bet up, waiting to be matched, wanting to have $940 on it, at $1.50. If through some miracle this bet were matched, I would make a $60 profit (pre commission), whichever horse of the three won. I have checked the box "Keep in play" so that perhaps the horse might be matched midrace.

Let's see what happens...... though I fear the worst!

Nothing like jumpingin boots and all ;)

What favourite at $1.41???

Are you talking Winthorpe the place, man you are gutsy, place market is very tough to crack in play.

Good luck.

FWIW If it were me, I'd be backing him $1,000 the win @ $3.20, then laying in play and otherwise at 100 @ $3.00, 200 @ $2.80 300 @ $2.60 $400 @ $2.40 and greening up on the last one.

The fluctuations are far better on the win market in play.