LAYING LOSERS
 

Hopefully that is what we will be doing in this "Maria style" thread.
Although it won't be as good as Maria as I will only be betting on Saturdays.

Here are the rules. Start bank $5000. Lay selections up to 4.90 to lose 1% of bank. Lay selections 5.00 - 20 to lose .5% of bank. Selections will be those deemed to have no chance based on 2 criteria, which if we do any good will be revealed in time. I will also throw in the odd selection that I simply don't like. There should be a lot of longer priced runners and that is the reason for the very conservative lay ratio. Losers will typically average 50% of the field.
Plus we will lay the shortest runner between 5.00 - 8.00 at close to jump. (If not already a lay)

Bets to increase in line with Bank hitting 000's, ie $6000, $7000, $8000 etc

I will update this thread after every Saturday's results are through.

So tomorrows losers will be laid to lose $50 or $25, depending on price.

Losers for 2/2/08

BR1 1,4,6,7,8,9,11,12,13,14,15,16,18,19
BR3 3,6,7,8,9
BR4 1,11
BR5 1,2,3,4,6,8,9,10,11,12,13,15,17
BR6 3,6,7,9,10
BR7 1,3,4,8,9,10,11
BR8 1,4,5,6,8,9,10,11

SR3 1,2,3,4,6,7,8
SR4 4,5,7
SR6 6,10,11
SR7 3,5,8,9
SR8 1,2,3,5,6,10,11,12

MR2 6,8,9
MR3 4,10
MR4 4,8,9,10
MR5 5
MR7 1,3,7,10,12
MR8 1,3,10

Plus we will lay the shortest runner between 5.00 - 8.00 at close to jump.
All going well we should have an 80% strike rate.

Mark

Hope it goes well :)

Mark

Is the selections bassed on % of win to runs, which you posted awhile ago ( 10% by memory)

Geez, not much interest in this.

Thanks Pixie, certainly got off to a flyer today.

Crackone, close but no donut, well half a donut anyway.
I go through the form guide and any runner that has had at least 10 starts and a win % of less than 1:6 is a lay. I then add to this any runner that hasn't won in 12 months. That's it in a nutshell. I then add horses that I believe can't win regardless of strike rate etc, BR7 Spur Me On was the only one in this category today.
Then last minute I lay the horse closest to 5.0 or more, up to 8.0. If you want a simple lay system then laying just this one is profitable long term, funnily enough it was this category that let me down today.

I worked 20 races today, laid 7 winners, and won on 15 of the races.
After winning 10 of the first 11, I was +$111, but then lost 4 of the next 5 and was down to +$17, before winning on the last 4 to finish +$73.

Best win was BR7 @ +$26, worst loss was BR6 @ -$35.

New bank $5073, and bets stay the same.

Well done mark
Bank increase of 1.5% not bad.

Cheers.

Nice start Mark. Keep it up.

I've almost given up trying to promote laying. There is very little interest as you say. I wonder whether people get it...

Yes, a good start, Mark.

You recomend laying the closest to $5.00 but not higher than $8.00. Are you referring only to your nominated races or to all races?

Most impressive Mark, well done.
Have been a long time reader, but not registered. This thread has made me become one though, so please don't think that there is no interest in this sort of thing.
Have had a bit of a go at laying them, but done a heap of damage in the space of about 4 weeks, so am still a bit gun shy.
Blood rushes, loss chasing and bad calls mostly. Wasn't as easy as I thought. Was mostly laying first and second favs if they had not run time at their last start with no other filters.
Anyhow, I look forward with interest to this becoming a regular thing.

Unfortunately it applies to all races Michael, but today I only bet on Syd, Melb & Bris. It cost me half my profit today with Apache Cat, Bearcountry, and Delago Star getting up. The annoying thing about Delago Star was he was the only horse I didn't have down as a loser in the race.

Don't give up Joe, the run of favs lately has been the worst I've seen in my 30 odd years of racing.

I thought it must have been me :-)

Nice work Mark ;)

Runs of faves....don't get me started :(

I reversed everything and cleaned up some damage ;)

Thanks, Mark.

The three accidents either won or ran second at their last start. I would presume that most selections in the $5 to $8 band would have placed at their last start.

Do you have a list of the other selections.

All the lays Michael?, or just the 5-8's that were not originally listed as losers?

Just the $5 to $8. I'm hoping to see if there is any sort of consistency as it is intriguing because the method can be used in just about every race.

BR3 2 Myagi
BR5 16 Wyreema
BR6 8 Romantic Journey
BR8 7 Bearcountry *
SR3 5 Delago Star *
SR5 8 Now Now
SR7 6 Stacked
SR8 7 Sumac
MR2 4 Pintsize
MR3 3 Arbitration
MR4 1 Zarita
MR5 1 Schilling
MR6 1 Apache Cat *
MR7 6 Moderato
MR8 4 Larson

3 from 15 which is worse than usual, as this method shows an 88% strike rate long term. I didn't look at Adelaide or any of the other meetings because I was just too busy.

Thanks, Mark.

From the 12 other selections there were only 4 that were unplaced last start.

There have been 3 races today that I have bet on the system. Two of them were returning from a spell. The first selection ran second at its last start and now placed. The second selection ran 7th last start and was now unplaced. The third selection ran second at last start but has now won the race.

I think I will now only look at those that didn't place last start, and maybe those resuming from a spell. If successful I will post here.

Hey i'm interested in laying, just need to find an angle with the least effort ;)

Currently looking at jockey's strike and then a horses form.

Losers for 9/2/08.

SR2 1
SR4 2,5,6,7,8
SR5 1,2,5,6,9,10
SR6 4,8,9,10,11
SR7 1,8,9

MR1 3,4,5,6,7,11
MR5 2
MR6 9,10,11,12
MR7 2,3,5,9,11
MR8 9
MR9 4,6,7

BR2 10
BR3 1,2,4,8
BR4 2,7
BR5 2,6,7,8,9
BR6 4,5,8,9
BR7 1
BR8 2,3,8,9,11,12,14,17

Plus the first @5-8.

Mark, shouldn't these be selections too, on the 1 in 6 win criteria?

Sr4 h9
Mr8 h14

Was actually thinking of putting up, in a different thread, my lays for the day on the time system I have, but don't know if it is worth the agro. What do you reckon?

Joe

Both have less than 10 starts so don't qualify.

Put up your lays, sure you'll get some knockers, but there are also some knowledgeable people here who will be able to tell you if your method is fundamentally flawed.

Todays start bank is $5073.

A weak heart never won a fair maiden. So I shall.
Yes I see the reason for those horses now. Cheers

Just a thought or two on laying (I know Chrome, I know --- and pretty much agree with what you have said often!!!). There is an angle, I think, to be found if the TAB sites --- radio tab, the guest tipster, and the late mail cannot agree for the most part. A high percentage of such races are fodder for the layer, I think (laying the favourite, that is).

For example, yesterday at Seymour Race 5 the tips were:

9-2-3-6 *9-8-4-6 5

The fav was 3. It ran nowhere :rolleyes!

Have a look at this sometime.


Someone recently decried the number of ideas based on the QldTAB. I think it is simply the easiest site on which to work in trying out new systems. I have never seen any indication that it is better than other information; but it is all there on the one page!

Horrible, horrible day.
Whatever I laid..............won.

Worked 19 races and laid 8 winners. It went downhill from SR5 onwards where I proceeded to lay 7 winners from 10 races.
Complete opposite of last week, today I was (relatively speaking) saved by the first horse @ 5-8, which showed a small profit.

Total loss $110.
New bank $4963.

It happens...
 

Put it down to the forum hoodoo. There's always next week :)

proving oneself on these forums seems to be one very hard call

i do quite nicely thankyou very much making my final selections within the last 2 minutes of betting, but making those selections on race morning relying on pre post markets etc just dont work

Problem is that to prove yourself you would have to post for a couple of years just about, I mean I'm into place betting and just looking at some recent results there was a run of 19 hits, on the same page there is a run of 4 outs 1 hit 3 outs 2 hits 3 outs, i.e. only 3 places out of 13 bets. So depending on when you decided to "prove" yourself you could look very silly or very clever.
Truth is this particular plan hovers at around 70% hits (places that is) over a long period. if only we knew which 70% eh?

Mark stick with it, don't bail.
It's times like this where everything seems to go against you that tests mettle.
They could have just as easily ALL lost or it could have been an exact duplicate of expectation.
Given that there have now been more than 4.5 billion transactions on Betfair, you can't get it right everyday.
Last night I laid seven short favourites, and six of them won.
I know I'm one step closer to six of them losing, but quite prepared for another six to win.

Losers for 16/2/08.

MR1 1,8,9,11
MR2 1,5,7,8,9,10,11,13
MR3 1,5,9
MR6 4
MR7 1
MR8 2,5
MR9 8,9,12,14

SR2 7
SR6 3,4,5,6,9
SR7 5,7,10
SR8 1,2,4,5,7,8,11,12
SR9 3,4,8,11

BR2 1,7,9,10,11,12,14
BR3 2,3,6,8,9,10,11
BR4 3,6,8,11,12,13,14,16
BR5 2,10,11
BR6 4,10
BR7 2,3,4,8,10,12,18
BR8 1,16

Lay at your own risk, I had a very late night, something I don't usually do on a Friday. All care, no responsibility and all that.
BR8 1 is my own lay.
Plus the first @5-8.

The forum curse has struck. I've been using this many months now and the returns have been reasonable..........until it's posted on here.

A disappointing day yesterday with a miniscule profit of $6 for the effort.

I worked 19 races and laid 7 winners. The undoing came late in the day with 3 in a row getting up (M8, S8, B7) and a $40 profit suddenly became a $17 loss.

New bank $4969

As there is no interest in this it will be shelved, although I will still be working it.

Sorry about that, and I mean it. This is one of the reasons I keep away from laying, (apart from the fact I know little about it) but at least with backing your return is, your bet multiplied by the odds, with laying you only get the other punters stake!

If out of 19, you get 7 winners you would be doing a lot better than most of us, by backing your selections!
Just a thought.
I only average about 18% for my first selection and still making good profits.
Good luck

Keep going
 

Mark

Please keep going. Don't let the hoodoo get to you. There's a small group of us that "get" it. Maria went through many such periods.

Thanks Lomaca, but you misunderstood me. I have made a living off Betfair for the last 5 years, mainly laying, and will continue to do so. This "system" is simply one of many that I use and is profitable, just not the 3 weeks that I put it up here. Believe me I will keep using it (at a much higher rate than I quoted here) I just won't be putting the results here.

Pixie, if you like I'll put up my lays on a Saturday morning.

Hi Merriguy
I agree with you on the Radio Tab Tips & the others there.
There are angles to be had.

I have never understood the aggressive outcry when the subject comes up .
It tells me that they have never done any research on the subject.

For instance how many rating services does one know where they have a win SR of 59% in their top 3 & 45% with their top 2.
Non is the answer and its free & easy to operate over past history.

The TAB prices may be a concern , but one should be betting with Betfair if one is serious about value & contol of bet returns or a Bookie.

One plan that seems to work well is bet the Fav on Betfair to win if it is not shown in any of the Radio TABs tips .
This usually tells us that there is some smart money afoot because their form is usually terrible yet they get up to win.

There are some Lay ideas to be had there also.

Cheers.

I've had modest success with backing horses where they are in the radiotab tips, track tipster tips and late mail tips. I'm currently sitting at a 79% strike rate, tho recently revised the selection critiera (which back testing removed a couple of my dnp selections). So hopefully going forward it'll increase the strike rate.

Mark, before you disapear off into the ether, could you answer a question that has been bugging me.
Being a person who makes his living off the punt, (and from what I've read of your posting over the last couple of years I don't doubt it for a minute), do you still get a kick out of winning. ie: when you land a big plunge/win, do you punch the air, cooee out, and get all excited?
Or is it a case of just another day at the office.

I am just curious is all. I know I definately don't live off the punt, but I get mighty excited at times.


I think I have stumbled across something that you may have overlooked in regards to this laying method of yours, I will share it with you if you would care to email me at
joefarmeratourbrisbanedotcom

Todays losers.

MR1 9,10
MR2 4,5,10,12
MR5 3,8
MR8 1,6,11
MR9 1,7,8,14

SR1 3
SR4 1,5,7
SR6 1,5,7,8,9
SR7 7
SR8 5,7,9

BR2 9
BR3 2,3,6,8,9,10
BR4 2,4,5,8,11,13,18
BR5 1,2,3,4,6,8,11,12,13,14,16,17,19
BR6 3,6,10,11
BR7 8,11,12,13
BR8 10,12

Joe

As a rule I try not to get too excited as I believe it has an affect on what you do, or don't do. Having said that, how can you not get excited when something you don't like gets beaten at 2's on or one you do like gets up at big odds. Doug's Mate the other week springs to mind. I laid him, he just had too many question marks to be that short, and I had the winner 2nd pick, so it was a nice result. Most races I usually take a small % of my t/o as profit.

I missed MR3 11.

Great Mark. Thanks all the best today.

PS: Do you use this technique during the week?

Good to hear you still get a kick out of it Mark, wouldn't be dead for quids.
Further to the earlier post, I noticed that all bar one of the winners for the method in the last 2 weeks opened shorter than it's pre-post price. it may have been a bit of a false alarm though, as most of them did shorten. Maybe something to look out for though.

A winning day yesterday.

Joe, I sent you an email yesterday, just wondering if you received it.

Pixie, I tried it, but it didn't seem to work midweek. Lots of horses getting around with bad win % and/or haven't won for ages, and lots of them seemed to win. I even tried adjusting the win rate to 10% or less and it still wasn't consistent.