Today's barely adequate tips.
 

I only bet on the longies.

Today's barely adequate tips 2
 

Some more files

Well I am done betting for today, six bets, one win $7.60, two place collects $3.00 and $8.80. That'll do me.
Cheers

Impressive, Iomaca :-)

Do you back each horse for a win and a place? Or is each treated on its merits and backed accordingly. Would like to have had those returns before midday on Sunday!!

Hi Merriguy,

Actually, I have to apologise, I was a bit remiss in not telling that I mainly (80% of the time) bet on my second selection.
If the second is too short for me I may use the first selection for a place bet.

Although I mentioned that I only bet on longshots, I did not say, that I ignore any selection for a win unless it pays over $5.00 and for a place a minimum of $2.00, but prefer much better than that.
And it has to be the second (mostly) or third or any other down, the line as long as the price is right.

Don't make the mistake that betting blindly on longshots is the way go, THEY have to have a chance, most don't!

Only ONE horse in a race!!!

Why the second selection? simple, I ran many trials and it works best!
While I skew my rating towards horses that have an excellent chance of winning, but usually are not popular picks with the punters, sometimes the truly top horse is just to good and it drifts to the top of the selections.
In these cases I either give the race a miss or pick one for a place, I don't bet exotics, although many trifactas and others are missed this way, but I am comfy with what I'm doing, so I don't bother.

Also, I stop after a few races when ahead and winning by a reasonable amount.
Over the years I found that if I continue betting, I'm usually no better, maybe even worse off in the end, so why persist? You just can't win them all.

Case in question, on Sunday I was up by nearly $500.00 early (betting about $100 for place and $40 to $50 for win), had I continued I would have been down halfway through the day, and would have recovered near the end. If you look, there were quite a few winners for the second and third selections in the $20 plus range in the latter part of the day, not to mention place getters at very nice odds.

I know my way will not suit many people, but I'm in it for the money, not the glory.

The hardest bit to overcome, was, to stop when winning, and MOST important! once you make your selections, no matter how, even if by a throw of a dart! don't listen to anyone, go with your selections!
They are as good as anybody else's. Just look at all the tipsters, when they agree, it's fav. paying craaaap, if they don't, you have up to 10 horses to bet on in an 8 horse race.

If anyone put money on my rated horses and won, I take the credit, if you lost, I wasn't going to be on that one myself, so it's all your fault. LOL

Good luck.

I finished for the day, see if you can use these?
 

Finished for today Roc. race 1 No 4 $7.50 and $2.00

No guarantees, I only bet on second selection when over $5.00 for win and over $2 for place, but its up to you. If the fav is too short I leave the race alone.

Good luck

Almost wish I continued betting, missed a couple of nice qualifying winners, and now;
Bendigo race 6 No. 10 Just the Rock, $21.00 AND $ 4.90.

Hope you were not too scared to be on it against the fav. ?


Spoke too soon, Port Lincoln Race 6. Double Cover wins $21.00 and $3.40

I think better stop now, the avg. strike rate has been surpassed.

Sorry I have not responded to your long explanation before this, Iomaca. Was appreciated. I am heading overseas towards the end of the month --- not the result of my betting unfortunately --- and things are very busy.

Hope we will see some more of your efforts today :grin:

Totally agree with your getting out while ahead. I guess it depends a lot on your makeup. "Know yourself" as the old philosophers put it. I realise its not logical --- why can't you pick the next winner, that horse does't know the prevous one won --- but, for me, it takes away the strain and the concentration that is so necessary.

I'm not sure that I agree, however, on only ever backing one horse in a race --- especially if they are likely to give super returns as in your case. I guess your figures wil tell you what's best.

Thanks again --- and good luck for today.

Merryguy,
Thank you for your kind words, but being the shy retiring kind of bloke that I am, I can hardly put my puny efforts up against something like "The Best in Australia".
I am not in competition with anyone, tried it once, years ago on this forum, and was deemed to be "LUCKY", devoid of any handicapping talent, because I picked the same kind of winning longshots (incomprehensible as it is to closed minds) as I am picking now.
You are quite correct, the dumb horse doesn't know, but I DO!
If you just bet haphazardly it would make no sense to stop, but I do follow my ratings and I do know the strike rate and also the sequence of winners. and also the number of times (approximately) of a winning streak in a meeting. So me, stopping when ahead, makes perfect sense.
I see your point and raise you one!
How many winners are there in a race?
(Know what you mean, being frivolous here) I don't believe in frittering away the profits, once you make a decision stick to it!!
They do indeedy!


Good luck to you too.
Cheers

lomaca, Well done, enjoyed your ratings the other day. Will you be continuing them?

.... no it is then ? :o

Well,
Yes and no. I am not going to post any of my ratings here.
first; it may be considered as if I entered a competition, I do not!

second; I am betting on longshots that are prominent in my ratings.
(anyone can bet on the fav. no need to do any work)

Most punters simply would not follow my reasoning for more than a of couple days, and after that, they would blame me for their losses.

I had many request by email to send it to them, even offering me money!

Realise this, the costs of getting the past data and processing it, are the same whether I am the only user, or if I sell the ratings to hundreds, so it makes no difference to me. (it would if I'd been losing)
The winnings absorb the costs by a geat margin.

I give you an example how people would react: (post the ratings for today as well)

Today, since I only work on Mondays and Tuesdays, I was betting from home, and I got disrupted and missed a couple of winners that would have been enough for me to stop.
Anyway, by the end of the day, I was down by $150 and I really like to be up by at least $200.

How many of you would be cold and reasonable, and follow the selections, instead of rushing to the bosom of the fav. to save the day?

Hands up people!!?

I simply followed the ratings and put $60 for win on No. 9, my third selection at Bunbury race 9.
(you can see the prices on offer in the results, and see my reasoning for picking this one)

It duly saluted at about $11.

I got my $200 for the day, and had I not been distracted I could have finished a lot earlier, and been more ahead!

After all this waffle, since can't guarantee that you will get the same results as I do from my rating, and I need no aggro from people, I do not post!

Cheers and Good luck

No worries..... Good luck with them mate !

lomaca
I enjoy your postings. I must say that on this issue, I completly agree wiyh you.
I've just done an analysis (over a glass of wine so there may be minor errors) on your figures and a free rating service available every day on the web.
Here are the results:
lomaca: Ballarat,winner in the top 4, 66.6% ave divs $9.10
Free australianracing 55.5% ave divs $3.3

Wyong
lomaca top 4:66.6% ave divs $5.6
FAS: 55.5% ave divs $4.5.

What would be the result if you were to sell or give away your ratings ( though you could always post them after you finish for the day, like you did the other day (got to be thankful for the crumbs from the table, I guess[img]images/icons/icon7.gif[/img]).
they probably wouldn't affect the price of the favourite by much, but I guarantee an extra 100 into the longer priced horses where the punters are scarse on the ground, wouldn't see your system picking winners like you did today, at $25.8,$42.3, and $24.8, they would be down to around $5

Regards

Probably a bit late now, I was out all day, but here is MOV.

Nice work with Racing Thunder & Chartered....

Yes, well, if one is into following longshots, it helps to get these kind of horses up in the ratings, preferably, in the first or second position, or maybe the third or fourth.

Sure they don't win often but even a couple of these would cover the cost of betting the whole card, (utterly foolish notion of course!).

It really is amazing how many times they run a place with place returns of $3+.

Good luck with your projects.
Cheers

Thanks Lomaca. Value and good prices.... now there are two very sort after punting items!

Just working on a system at the moment, I've found throws out some nice priced winners and all this with a 23% strike rate and an average dividend of $10.59 (Highest Priced winner $34.80) and showing 60% POT over 6 years.

"Rather" happy with this one and have been using it (betting small units) this year with reasonable success... ask me in July how it's going

All the best