new system ideas
 

It seems that in general those horses carrying the least weight (ignoring apprentice claims) pay more than the top weights. And also the horses that draw the wider barriers pay more than those with the inside barriers. IMO, weights and barrier draws are overrated, but that they still influence many punters bets, so hopefully that translates into some potential value bets.

Could someone with a database run a test for me for both the win and the place?

Saturday Metro tracks only.
Good and Dead tracks only.
Ignore 2yo, maidens and jump races.
Only consider those horses carrying the least weight in each race (ignore apprentice claims).
Of the remaining horses, only consider the one with the widest barrier.

Min. weight horses often come in at good prices. I find that it happens more at mid-week races than Sat. races though. Possibly because Sat. metro horses handle weight rises better than mid-week class.

Saturday 22/03/08 Results

BR1 #8 2nd $6.80
BR3 #6 Rhymenoreason UNP
BR4 #14 Embracing 3rd $16.80
BR5 #12 Prend UNP
BR6 #10 Finder Page 3rd $6.2
BR7 #8 Bold Reason 3rd $4.10
BR8 #19 Whispering Gypsy UNP
SR1 #7 Guru 3rd NTD
SR2 #11 Little Sai Wan 2nd $4.40
SR4 #5 Mimi Lebrock 3rd $2.00
SR5 #10 Twin Wing UNP
SR6 #13 Gamble Me UNP
SR7 #9 Guillotine UNP
SR8 #13 Lantwin UNP
SR9 #10 Grey Stream UNP
MR2 #8 Frisco Jess UNP
MR3 #8 Able Dragon 1st $29.70/$6.20
MR4 #8 On a Promise UNP
MR5 #7 Come FLy With Me 3rd $2.80
MR6 #14 Senorita de Lago UNP
MR7 #8 Dance on Air 2nd $2.40
MR8 #12 Hike UNP

Win
Out: $22.00
In: $29.70
+$7.70

Place
Out: $22.00
In: $51.70
+$29.70

With an average dividend of around $5.00 for the place and a healthy place strike rate, it looks like this might have some potential as a place system.

I'd be interested how the system pans out mid-week as a comparison.

Crash, by my reckoning today's qualifiers are:

Scone
R3 no.9
R9 no.13
R10 no.14

Moe
R5 no.8
R6 no.8
R7 no.10
R8 no.10

As a matter of interest, I have been betting Duets and also Place using multiple selections (half of the field). Some of the divvies have been quite large especially when the higher TAB numbers happen to place. The largest Place divvy to date has been $17.

My idea would be to ignore barriers and only back mid-week horses at min. weight 3rd. or 4th up. good or dead tracks.

*rule out anything over 50/1

Moe
3/9,12 [9 $1.60p]
Scone
3/9 x
5/7 x
7/11 x
8/13,14 [14 $12.20w $2.80p]
10/13 ?

Bunbry
7/13
8/10
CHELTENHAM PARK
5/4 [$1.80p]
7/8
8/10
IPSWICH
4/4
5/8
7/9,14 [14 $3.40p]
8/10
SANDOWN-HILLSIDE
6/15 $30.80w $7.50p

I ran the widest barrier idea over several hundred races & found it worked very well in races with....

. Field size 8-12 runners.

.Targeting the bottom 3 horses in the list of runners.

. Selection is the widest barrier of the 3 runners.

. Bet for a place only.

Try & only bet if $3+ can be had at jump time.

It could work well if the Betfair SP service gets up & running, that way all bets could be place at once with a min value attached to the bet to be placed.

On the figures I ran through, I came up with this betting 1% of bank.
SR 20%
POT 20%

Some of the divs are quite amazing e.g. $17.00, $23.00

Cheers.

Thanks guys.
 

Thanks Bhagwan for your time in playing around with those ideas and running them through your database. The reason I like the idea of wide barrier draws, is because you would think that it would give the jockey the best opportunity to try to position the horse where he/she thinks it will perform best from. For instance, it might be a bit harder to get your horse to settle back early so that it can make a strong finish if it's drawn in the middle, where it's first instinct will likely be to keep up with or outperform the horse either side of it. The same horse drawn wider, shouldn't feel as much pressure. Just a theory. Regardless, it looks like we've found some value bets. Thanks again for your efforts Bhagwan.

Thanks for your suggestions too Crash. Food for thought.

The outside barrier or even the inside No1 barrier can be a blessing or equally a curse, depending on the course, distance and field size. The pace style of the horse in an outside [or inside] barrier will also be influenced by the pace style of the rest of the field. Very, very few horses ever are equally good front runners, mid-pacers or backmarkers. They either get a race to suit at the right time, pace and barrier to suit and condt. to suit, or they lose.

Any system based on barrier [any], will naturally throw up winners as at least some horses the system choses are going to suit the barrier, course and distance etc. for that particular race. The 'edge' for the outside barrier is the slightly better prices.

Bhagwan, were your results taken for Metro meetings over Good and Dead tracks, ignoring 2yo, maidens and jump races, or were you looking at the bottom three horses in other races as well?

Forget the suggestions,this is looking like a good winning system!

*rule out anything over 50/1

Bunbry
7/13
8/10
CHELTENHAM PARK
5/4 [$1.80p]
7/8
8/10
IPSWICH
4/4
5/8
7/9,14 [14 $3.40p]
8/10
SANDOWN-HILLSIDE
6/15 $30.80w $7.50p
------------------------------------
Moe
3/9,12 [9 $1.60p]
Scone
3/9 x
5/7 x
7/11 x
8/13,14 [14 $12.20w $2.80p]
10/13
-----------------------------------
GOSFORD
1/5 x
5/8,9 x
6/9 x
7/14,15 [14w $14.50w $3p]
KALGOORLIE
3/8 x
5/8 x
6/9 ? [still to run]
7/14 ? [still to run]
TOWNSVILLE
3/6 x
5/8 x
8/12 x
------------------------------------

Rules were:
3rd or 4th up
min. Weight
Ignore barriers
Ignore more than 50/1
------------------------------------

Doing very well indeed for a win system!

KALGOORLIE
3/8 x
5/8 x
6/9 [2.30p]
7/14 [over 50/1]

Hi Nigel,
I ran the idea over everything regardless of track conditions, class or day of the week.

One will experiience say 20 outs in a row at times then hit several big payers, one after the other.

Cheers.

Thanks Bhagwan.

I had a brief look at this but when I got to a run of 26 outs I lost interest. Can it be 'tweaked' in any way?

Your time and effort is much appreciated.

Cheers,
Nigel

Nice to see you guys starting to see the benefit of stats analysis. Only been what, 6 years now? since I first mentioned the lack of importance of barrier positions in the overall scheme of successful punting right here. Keep it up fellas, you'll get it in the end.

Dropped in to do a bit of slumming have you mate?

I'm not sure what is ment by "you will get it in the end"
Now I'm afraid... very afraid.

These 'catch me if you can' know it all punters drop in to establish what? An ego injection?

Lets see how they would go in a comp. Of course they would never enter one. Too gutless. Preachers not punters who couldn't pick their nose, let alone winners. Come on mate, join one of the comps. and show us all up!

Taree
2/5
5/9 $2.10p
6/12
7/14 $50.90w / $11.90p

This system is killing it. Considering how few bets there were today, I would have allowed the last one as it's only 90c above the max.

crash, did you by any chance look at the results on Saturday?

No I didn't do sat. [but I will].

Check this out win or place so far:

Bunbry
7/13
8/10
CHELTENHAM PARK
5/4 [$1.80p]
6/9,10,11 [9 $15.20p]
7/8
8/10
IPSWICH
4/4
5/8
7/9,14 [14 $3.40p]
SANDOWN-HILLSIDE
6/15 $30.80w $7.50p
-----------------------
GOSFORD
1/5 x
5/8,9 x
6/9 x
7/14,15 [14w $14.50w $3p]
KALGOORLIE
3/8 x
5/8 x
6/9 [2.30p]
TOWNSVILLE
3/6 x
5/8 x
8/12 x
----------------------
CESSNOCK
7/11 [$11.60p]
GOULBURN
7/17e
ROCKHAMPTON
5/8
7/9 [$9.90p]
8/10
SEYMOUR
4/14,15
5/10,11
6/15,17
-------------------
Taree
2/5
5/9 $2.10p
6/12
7/14 $50.90 / $11.90p [I would allow that bet considering the few bets for the day and only being 90c above the $50 cut off].
----------------------------

All very nice so far and killer profits. Every day a profit.

In by a whisker
 

Crash
You clearly stated a couple of times that selns > 50/1 are to be excluded. Taree 7/14 was actually 49.9/1 so it is a legitimate seln - no rule bending reqd.
Nice one

So far this is a killer system with max profit. Will it go pear shaped? Back it until it does is my advice.

what are the exact rules to follow?

1. Good or Dead tracks only
2. No maiden races
3. Look at horses with min. weight only
4. Must be 3rd or 4th up
5. Rule out any horse over 50/1 [$51 cut off not $50, so the $50.80 winner just scraped in]
6. Back alll selections up to 3. Ignore the race if more than 3.

The rules do make some sense. The selection will be fit and probably moving up a bit in class, so the odds are usually good. These horses are often overlooked by punters, but obviously some of them do have a chance of winning. I'm generally just a win bet punter, but there is profit there it seems for place betting, which some punters prefer.

I'm sure it will hit the deadly run of outs soon, but I'll go with the recent luck for as long as it lasts.

crash, something you may like to look at:

Delete any runner that was placed last start but include maiden races.


Saturday
Queanbeyan race 2 #10 $41.70/9.60
Randwick race 6 #5 $11.00/3.10
Randwick race 9 #7 $16.40 plc

and.............

disregarding track conditions


Doomben R4 #17 $4.10 plc
Gold coast R6 #12 $5.50 plc

and today Colac R1 #5 $6.50/2.90 and for second #9 $3.40 plc

I haven't checked the system in the wet [I ignored last Sat.] but who knows?
It would be worth keeping an eye on as the low weight might make a difference. Maiden races could be another good area to look into.

Is there any selections for tomorrow that meet the requirements?

I'll wait for track conditions and scratchings before checking out tomorrow.

I hope today isn't a turning point. No profit.

RANDWICK-KENSINGTON
4/6,7[$1.30p],10[$2.60p]
5/12
7/12

crash Randwick race 4:

#6 and 7 have a weight of 56.5kg. #10 has a weight of 54kg. Therefore only horse 10 is a qualifier?

Thurs. 3.4.08
ASCOT
8/9 x
9/10 x
GRAFTON
7/10,13[$9.20w $2.60p],16
9/12,13[$4.80p]
MACKAY
5/10 x
6/11,12 [$12w $3.20p]
7/8 x
8/8 x
Out $11 R$21.20w
------------------------
Fri. 4.4.08
FANNIE BAY
2/7 x
GOLD COAST
4/10 x
6/12 x
8/15 x
MOONEE VALLEY
5/1 $12.50w [dead heat] $6.20p
MILDURA
2/7 x
MUSWELLBROOK
6/15 x
7/12 [$3.20p]
9/11 x
Out $9 Return $12.50w
---------------------

I've checked out last Sat. and this Sat. and the System is overwhelmed by too many bets from too many venues. Leave Sat out I think. Is still doing well on week days. Win bet only for me anyway.

What is the most important aspects in racing?

Barrier? track/distance record? distance record? weight? form - must have placed in two of last four runs? must be listed within top 5 of ratings? must be selected by at least two professionals in the their top 3 selections?

Truly forget all that crap. The 'pros' work for a living because they know a lot about the runners but can't pick when they will win if their life depended apon it.

THE most important aspect of picking a winner is PACE and knowing what the pace will be for any race. Only then does the barrier become important. Distance is important too of course and so is the jockey. If the trainer has it together, the runner has the best of a chance.

As far as this system goes, the main thing is fitness. 3rd or 4th up and min. weight. It gets a few unexpected winners home.

I have previously participated in comps here Crash old son. I only have a max of 6 bets per Saturday across the country so 90% of any "tips" I gave would be guesses as are yours I'd imagine. Further, if I posted my method selections here then they could be analysed and the method used, identified. That wouldn't be good business sense now would it?

I don't see the point in posting much now because nobody pays any attention to what is said anyway! I've provided some very sound guidelines here in the past that had they been followed, would provide the basis of a very sound selection method.

For almost six years I've been using my own method to make a nice living. That's right! Average 6 bets, all ONLY on a Saturday and make a living!! Keep digging mate, you'll get there or die trying.

Cheers

Privateer

Post deleted.
Flaming ...

Just forget that last post as it might get me banned. Just forget I ever said it and I take it all back.
It just isn't worth saying anything controversial here. It will get me banned for sure. So sorry I said anything.

Of course it's OK, within reason, to post something controversial.
But it is not OK to flame other posters.
Moderator.

May I ask, what is your tips Privateer? I am all ears.