Simple place or win system
 

I've moved this to it's own thread and waiting until it collapses I guess. Going strong at the moment.

1. Good or Dead tracks only
2. No maiden races
3. Look at horses with min. weight only
4. Must be 3rd or 4th up
5. Rule out any horse over 50/1 [$51 cut off not $50, so the $50.80 winner just scraped in]
6. Back alll selections up to 3. Ignore the race if more than 3.
7. Mon. to Fri. only.


Bunbry
7/13 x
8/10 x
CHELTENHAM PARK
5/4 [$1.80p]
6/9,10,11 [9 $15.20p]
7/8 x
8/10 x
IPSWICH
4/4 x
5/8 x
7/9,14 [14 $3.40p]
SANDOWN-HILLSIDE
6/15 $30.80w $7.50p
-----------------------
GOSFORD
1/5 x
5/8,9 x
6/9 x
7/14,15 [14w $14.50w $3p]
KALGOORLIE
3/8 x
5/8 x
6/9 [2.30p]
TOWNSVILLE
3/6 x
5/8 x
8/12 x
----------------------
CESSNOCK
7/11 [$11.60p]
GOULBURN
7/17e
ROCKHAMPTON
5/8
7/9 [$9.90p]
8/10
SEYMOUR
4/14,15
5/10,11
6/15,17
-------------------
Taree
2/5 x
5/9 $2.10p
6/12 x
7/14 $50.90 / $11.90p
-----------------------------
RANDWICK-KENSINGTON
4/6,7[$1.30p],10[$2.60p]
5/12 x
7/12 x
-----------------------------
BALAKLAVA
4/7 x
5/8 x
6/10 x
7/10 [$6.40p 12 x
8/12 x
BUNBURY
6/8 [$3.50]
8/6 [$2.90p]
IPSWICH
6/11,13 x
8/13 x
NEWCASTLE
6/14 [$2.50p]
7/12 x
8/14 x
------------------------
Thurs. 3.4.08
ASCOT
8/9 x
9/10 x
GRAFTON
7/10,13[$9.20w $2.60p],16
9/12,13[$4.80p]
MACKAY
5/10 x
6/11,12 [$12w $3.20p]
7/8 x
8/8 x
------------------------
Fri. 4.4.08
FANNIE BAY
2/7 x
GOLD COAST
4/10 x
6/12 x
8/15 x
MOONEE VALLEY
5/1 $12.50 [dead heat] $6.20p
MILDURA
2/7 x
MUSWELLBROOK
6/15 x
7/12 [$3.20p]
9/11 x
---------------------
KILMORE
6/10 [$2.10p]
PORT MACQUARIE
5/10 [$10.20p]
6/10 x
SAPPHIRE COAST
4/14 x
--------------------

COFFS HARBOUR
4/7 [$2.70p]
5/11 [$2.50p]
6/15 x
7/12 [oh dear,$14p, but over the 50/1 rule]
PAKENHAM
7/8 x
---------------------
Going by the number of views since yesterday, I hope a few punters are on- board and putting a few bucks on [especially for the place it seems]. I have no problems with sharing anything that is winning and I want other punters to win too [no secret 'I make heaps' no proof methods here]. I bet for interest, not to try and make a living. Not great today, but the system is still winning for win and place. Lets hope it rolls on for a good while yet. Feel free to mess with the rules, as you might improve things. Let us all know if you do though:-)

ASCOT
3/9,10 x
5/9 [$4.60p]
6/12 x
8/12 x
CANTERBURY
2/8 [$4.10w $2.60p]
CRANBOURNE
2/9 x
4/14 [$1.30p]
6/12 [$1.80p]
IPSWICH
3/8 [$5p]
6/13 [$3.10p]
7/9 [$3.60p],11,12
8/16 [$3.60p]
MURRAY BRIDGE
3/7,13 x
4/13 x
6/7 x
7/9 x
8/12,14 x
----------------------

ALBURY
4/11 [$1.50p]
5/16 x
6/13 x
BENDIGO
7/12,15 x
9/14 x
BUNBURY
5/8 x
7/6 x
8/8[$2.80p],9
TOOWOOMBA
5/6,9 [$4.70p]
6/21 x
7/9 x
WYONG
8/11 [$3.60p]
----------------------

ALBURY
3/8 [$1.80p]
4/10,12,13 x
6/11 [$4.60w $1.80p]
7/13 [$19.10w $4.70p]
8/16 x
GEELONG THOROUGH
6/10 x
ORANGE
8/6,13 x
ROCKHAMPTON
4/7 x
5/14 [$2.50p]
7/9 x
---------------------

win bet is still looking good.

I would make a small tweak to the rules. If more than 2 bets [not 3], ignore the race.

Reaper 1313,

2nd or 3rd up refers to the numbers in any form guide before the horse's name. S124 means a spell [S] and the the horse's placing for the next 3 starts. This run would be the 4th start [4th up]. 15 without and X in front of the 15 would mean the horse has only ever had 2 starts. So it would be 3rd. up this start. Get the drift?

Bet either win or place only. You will get returns more often for the place but you will get lousy odds compared to the runners win odds and you would have missed some great win bet odds.
I only ever [well mostly] bet for the win. I don't bother with this system on weekend as there are too many race meetings, which doesn't mean the system can't win on weekends. I would ignore the main city metro race meetings though.

Thanks HEAPS crash. yes makes perfect sense. put it on other thread cause thats where i saw it, didn't see it had it's own thread. New to punting, new to forums too. Found an old copy of a system called MAGICBET by a G. A. Sharp. Dunno what its like, but thinking of havin a crack at it as well. If you know anything about it, would be happy to know your insights. Thanks Mate

Be VERY careful with systems. They have a habit of the wheels falling off. Meaning a sudden long 'run of outs' [run of loses]. Anything else you need to know let me know. As with everything in life, we all started at the beginning once. What I can't offer [and nor can anyone else here] is guaranteed road to riches on the punt. I have no problems of sharing anything that is going well though. I couldn't give a stuff about prize pools.

My advice [take it or leave it] about bet amounts is have some fun before trying anything clever. If you can't win with $2 bets, you'll never win with bigger bets, just lose more. Better to slowly move up in bet amounts. Apart from my own serious bets, my wife and I have fun by picking a horse each in Melb. races for $2w bets. It allows one to take risks. Last week we picked 6 of the 8 winners between us and she picked 3 out of 4 quins. [1st and 2nd place getters] as well. I think she is a better punter than me actually:-)

Hi Reaper
I tested out that plan many years ago .
It will have it's good days & not so good days .
When I tested it, it managed to break even using TAB prices which is OK.
This means if one used it with Betfair prices it should show a profit.

I beleive the plan is out of print now & if its the same one I am thinking of , it targets the first 3 or 4 ranked in the pre-post market & then one bets the ones that have shortened in their ranking at jump time.

Heres a SIMPLE 2 HORSE PLAN that can hit a lot of winners ,that you may like to try out...

.Target the top 2 market favs at 1 min till jump. These have a statistical strike rate of 50%.

.Bet 4 units on the Horse you think should win & place 1 unit on the other horse as a saver bet .
You will have a greater chance of surviving the run of outs doing it this way, plus it will add a lot more interest to your punting, it also frees up your thinking when it comes to the question of value because you know you have the other horse covered..

You will also be amazed how often the other horse gets up over your selection, out of the 2 horses targeted, no matter what one tries to do to separate them. That will be the frustrating bit.
If one can get it right, there's a profit to be had.


.This way, it will conserve your betting bank & at the same time one will enjoy a 40-50% SR using the Betfair market.

.Make sure you have a betting bank of 60:1 ratio or more when level stakes betting.

. One will find it very challenging trying to profit using TAB prices, so try & use say IAS or Spotingbet or Centrebet (Best of 3 totes) if one wishes to place all bets at once or use Betfair if one wishes to bet race to race in front of a screen for even better prices.

.Do be prepaired for 20 outs in a row followed hopefully by a series on wins if betting just one horse a race.

.Try & work out ones results using percentages rather than actaual money won or lost, the figures will make more sence if its done this way.

.Do open up a Betfair A/C for superiour prices.

.Do download a copy of Bet Trader Pro, Free. (Google) Racing Traders to find it. That way, one can use 1 cent bets if you want to , which is great for testing out new systems without risking large amounts of money.

Cheers.

I had look at this system for Sund. [forget Sat. too many races] and as my idea is to keep the amount of bets down, I now ignore runners who did not start 21 days ago or less [need them fit]. It weeded out a few bets and they were either scr., over 50/1 or did no good anyway.

The results were nothing spectacular, but a small win for win bets anyway.

Sund.
GAWLER
4/4 [$3.10w 1.40p]
6/14 [$3.40w $1.90p]
GERALDTON
1/5 $4.50w $1.60p]
7/12 x
HAMILTON
8/14 x
9/10 x
HOBART
7/8 x
MUSWELLBROOK
7/10 x
SUNSHINE COAST
6/7,8 x
--------------------------------

Totals so far:
Win out 137 Win in 168.20 Profit 31.20
Place out 137 Place in 163.10 Profit 26.10

Monday 14/4
GRAFTON
4/13 [1.80p] 14
5/7 x
6/12 x
SALE
7/10 x
8/12 [7.70w 2.80p]
TAMWORTH
6/9 [6.30p]
8/15 x
-----------------------------
Win out 7 in 7.70 profit .70
place out 7 in 10.90 profit 3.90

Tuesday, Apr 15
STAWELL
5/8 [3.50p],10
8/9,11 [3.70p]
TAREE
4/8 x
5/8 [8.50w 3.00p],9 [1.50p]
6/14,15 x
-------------------------------
win out 7 in 8.50 profit 1.50
place out 7 in 11.70 profit 4.70

Nice work crash ...

Is there any reason you restrict to Monday to Friday (as per rules) ?

Good Luck

Not really. The main reason is that on Saturday their is a heck of a lot of races to go through and I'm getting a bit lazy nowadays. Also I like to concentrate on form study for the main meetings. I did do last Sunday for this system.

Limit weight
 

Hi Crash
I did a thorough analysis of all your published selections and I have a question.
Can you clarify for me how you determine the minimum weight? Is it the listed minimum weight after scratchings or do you take note of allowances?
Thanks

I take no notice of allowances and I do the list of possible selections before scratchings [the night before]. I just pick lowest weight runners at 2nd or 3rd. start. If the lowest weight selections are emergencies, I note the next lowest weight. If the selected emergency is scratched, I select the next lowest weight runner[s]. For everything else I just cross off scratchings, those selections that haven't run for more than 21 days and anything about to jump at 50/1 or more.

Rough and ready I guess, but I didn't mind as I wanted to keep it simple to do and the number of selections down. The system might be improved if the selections were done after scratchings. I was thinking of doing that, but it will increase the amount of selections, but maybe not winnings. Who knows?

Here is my initial list from last night:

DEVONPORT
6/7
DOOMBEN
5/7
6/13
7/12,13
KALGOORLIE
3/7,9
4/10
5/10
6/11 [if scr. pick 9,10]
7/12 [if 14e,15e,16e out]
RANDWICK-KENSING
4/13,14
6/10,11,16
7/ if 14e out select 12
SANDOWN-HILLSIDE
2/9 x
4/10
5/13
6/15,16
STRATHALBYN
7/6,7
8/8
9/7,8

Nice one Crash, going well for quite a while now - but can you clarify please - your last reply says "I just pick lowest weight runners at 2nd or 3rd start" but your original rules said "Must be 3rd or 4th up". Can we presume this was just a slip of the pen ..er ...finger as todays selections look like they are based on 3rd and 4th up
Keep it up.....Mancunian

Just a typo, I meant 3rd or 4th start.

Slow tracks
 

Today on the slow tracks ( RK and DT ) there were 6 selns for a winner at 15.40 and three placegetters at 2.3, 4.1 and 8.3.

The results all tracks where:

DEVONPORT [s]
6/7 [$8.30p]
DOOMBEN
5/7 x
6/13 x
7/12,13 x
KALGOORLIE
3/7,9 x
4/10 [$3.50w $1.50p]
5/10 x
7/12 x
RANDWICK-KENSING [s]
4/13,14 [4.50p]
6/10 [$15.40w $4.10p],11 x
7/12 x
SANDOWN-HILLSIDE
2/9 x
4/10 x
STRATHALBYN
7/6,7 x
8/8 x
9/7x


Taking out the slow tracks, a losing day. Maybe they should be left in [?]

Lightweights can have an advantage on Slow/Heavy tracks so how about including them IF they have been placed on slow or heavy tracks previously.

cheers ...mancunian

I'll just note S or H meeting and throw the results in as above. I won't worry about prev. wins in H or S yet. [too many filters too soon] If the horses are running in those conditions. The trainers might know something we don't!

Slow/ Heavy
 

I can't think of a logical reason to discard these tracks.
As Mancunian said min weighted horses may even be advantaged slightly.

Onya Crash
 

I can count the number of double figure place bets that i have collected on in my life on two hands.
Today -- two in half an hour. Back Tracks is the longest price placegetter that I have ever backed.
Thanks Crash

HAWKESBURY [s]
8/10 OUR CHINA PLATE [$12.70p]
ADELAIDE
R6 BACK TRACKS [$11.70p]

Both were over 50/1 however, so I'm not claiming them. If I'd have bet all horses over 50/1. I think the system would be in loss. However, for wet tracks I don't know.


I certainly think your on to something though re wet tracks and perhaps change the odds for the wet.

Back Tracks
 

It paid 16.80 where I backed it and a couple of dollars more in NSW.
Unitab punters got way under the odds. It was only $34 SP with the bookie. Our China Plate at $81 was a genuine outsider.
I had decided to ignore the 50/1 rule but, based on what you say, I'll think about it some more.

Point is I think your grabbing exceptions outside the rules. If you had bet all those exceptions since I started the system, you wouldn't be looking so good.

The wet tracks though, might apply. keep it up!

Without going outside the rules:

ASCOT [good track]
5/10,11 x
7/9 [27.20w 7.80p],10 [2.40p] Woo hoo!

Exceptions
 

Crash
I realise that the longshots that I backed were outside the published rules but I am appreciative nonetheless. I also ignore the 21 day rule myself and have a minimum acceptable price as well.
I accept what you say about the over 50/1 selections and will quit while i'm ahead with those.
In future, I won't mention any horse in this topic which is not a selection under your rules.

I really do think the 21 day rule is important [fit horses]. My bets are up to $5w now. Todays win went down really well.

21 day rule
 

I wouldn't have been on IP5, 8 which paid $25 today if I had applied the 21 day rule so i'm not yet convinced.

By the rules:

ASCOT
5/10,11 x
7/9 [27.20w 7.80p],10 [2.40p]
BALLARAT
5/11 x
7/14x

Any is free to make up their own I guess.

Crash
Should IP6/14 be on the list?

No more posts from Crash
 

Crash
I think that's a pity but i think it's a good thing for this thread.
More money for you and me if the interest in it dies.
I expressed my appreciation of your efforts in more than one post and i didn't at any stage criticize your rules. I offered an alternative view on them which I thought was reasonable. I don't claim to be a guru but i do have lengthy experience in systems betting.
I certainly didn't intend to offend you.

No problems mate. We'll just let the thread slip quietly off the page.

Crash, we all make mistakes, I know I have sometimes in my postings here and feel terrible about it. And the problem is that how carefully we try not to make them we will all continue to do so because of the simple fact that we are human.

Maybe the only exception was a person who lived 2,000 years ago.

Crash, I wasn't intending to criticize either.
Thanks for lots of previous contributions and particularly this one that's in my suite of systems now as "Crash's System".
Regards.......Mancunian