Trading on Betfair
 

There are an number of items available on this subject & there is a definite art in trying to make it profitable .

They all say how straight forward it is, but it is not as easy as they may claim, because the fractional amounts being targeted can be wiped out in one bad discision.

Here is a method that I have found to be fairly consistant.
Using the Smart trader option on Fairbot which makes a profit wheather the horse wins or looses.

For Aust racing
Target horses priced between $4.00-5.50
7min till jump.
I always make the Lay bet first at 1 tick less than the Blue win price, then wait to see if it gets matched . e.g. Win price is $4.10 , make your requested lay price $4.00 then press enter.

I am going for a 2 tick difference which can be adjusted in the box at the top of the Fairbot programm.

If the lay bet gets taken up, the Trading program then automaticly places the win bet & if the price we are asking finally gets taken up, we will have locked in a profit of approx 3-5% Profit guaranteed whether it wins or looses.

If the win price goes against us, the trading warning signal starts flashing red.
I then press the hedging button which sends off a bet to minimise the loss of approx 3-5% .

I find there is a lot more leeway to be had targeting horses priced between $4.00-5.50 & more chance of securing ones match ups.

There usually is approx 1-2 horses most races to target so I will bet both.
If there are none in the race , its a no bet race.
Once a match has been secured, there is no more betting on that race.
It seems to be very consistant.

It is important to try & start the process approx 7 min out from jump time.
Otherewise it is too hard to get matched say 1-2 mins out from jump time.

One can always cancell the bet if our initial lay bet does not get taken up say 3 min to jump time.

Its very much a waiting game & it usually pays off.

It would be interesting to see what other Trading ideas that some of you have come accross & would'nt mind sharing.

Cheers.

Thanks for those tips, i have only just got fairbot and have been playing with some of the options.

Bgahwan.

Have you ever used my "Lay " method .

1000 - 1100 M

Fav

Must be a Backmarker.

Cheers.
darky.

I've found that low liquidity races such as USA, Aus, South Africa, in the longrun, you are better backing first as the price goes south more often.

I would advise new traders to pick horses to trade which aren't favourite to get practice. Usually third or fourth favourite. It's easier to read the direction it's going and less wild swings.

But trading can be stressful, disheartening and difficult to read.

I gave it up as a strategy, and only use it when I have layed too high or backed too low.

It's a lot harder than Adam Todd or Peter Webb would have you believe, reality is quite different to pre recorded select races.

Good luck if you have a go though.

Can you explain the hedging part if the price goes against us we need to dutch all for the win? correct

You divide your profit or loss on one horse by it's current price and place a lay bet for that amount, which distributes your profit or loss amongst the field.

I am trying to under stand this, say i lay a runner for $100@$4.00 and i then try to back it at say $4.20 but the price firms in to $3.80 this would leave me with a $20.00 loss if i backed it.

Can you show me an example of how to get out of this.


P.S. Never mind i think i worked it out, it reduces your loss by about 25%

P.S.S Would i be correct in saying if i had the back first and couldn't get the lay that i would dutch back all the other runners.

Hi Shaun.
We are trading here (making Win & Lay bets on the same horse) , not Dutching, thats a different thing.

When trading...
I always make sure the bet conformation box is ticked, that way when one hits the Fairbot hedging button , one can see what the profit or loss will be if one decides to go ahead with the hedge bet.

The Hedge button may tell you that a -0.05c loss will be had on the race if its pressed.
This is better that say a $15 loss if it should go against you.
This is a very handy feature.

If one presses the Trading information section on the RHS
It lists all traded bet & lay transactions & if the Stop Loss option is ticked on the bottom RHS , the bet exposed to making a loss will start flashing red.
One then hits the flashing red horse, then hit Stop Loss,
It will then send off a bet to minimise ones exposed risk to a few cents loss.

Its a beautiful thing.

Thanks for your observations Chrom , I will check that one out.

As Chrom says, its not as easy as those chaps make out.
I find the first bet is the easiest, it then becomes harder repeating the same proceedure on the same horse.
One slip & all ones profit can be gone.
That's why I do it just once per horse, if possible.
It's reel nickel & dime stuff done many, many times to scratch a quid, but I still find it fascinating.

Hi Darky,
Thanks for that.
I forgot all about that one , is the backmarker info sorted from the Sportsman or is there an online source available .
The general idea looks brilliant.
Could you refresh my lapsing memory please.

Cheers.

I was using Betrader Pro till Baghwan and ChromePrince mentioned Fairbot. After the trial period I've happily paid for the Registered version. The Binteko Customer Service is good too. I asked if it's possible they could add the matched amount per runner/entry on the front panel(like BetTraderPro), instead of clicking to open the screen with that info. They responded fast and said 'yes, good, it'll be in the next version'! (Whenever that is).

On the UK races I back/lay early then hope for the Hedge, and green up as often as I can, even if it's small amounts.

I'm also at times laying a vulnerable favorite, and backing it for place, hoping for the 'double collect' if it runs 2nd/3rd.
The basics still hold true though. Do the form, find the risk/value.

But that's horse racing. Huge trading can be done on Tennis matches, snooker etc etc. I'm currently reading a book called 'the definitve guide to betting exchanges', written by the RacingPost team. There's a chapter on each main sport by a different writer. The statistics some pros keep on e.g Golf Players, to help make their play, makes you realise there are many serious players out there against you.

Anyway gotta go now, ManUnited-Barcelona trade beckons!

To work out the liabilities , covert all prices to fractional odds, this is what bookmakers do.
Then divide ones exposure amount by the fractional odds.
e.g.
Say Lay $100 @ $4.00 (3/1) = $300 Liability (Pink side)
Say you wish to close out of this trade & win price is $3.80 (2.8/1) (Blue side)

We divide the $300 liability(Pink) by 2.8/1(Blue) = O/L 107.14 Blue
We bet $107.14 O/L on the Blue side

If the horse Wins, Ret $299.99w(Blue) -300L(Pink) = -$0.01 loss.
Approx break even % on the race if horse wins.

If horse Falls over, Ret $100 from lay bet (Pink) - 107.14 O/L (Lost-Blue)
= -$7.14
Approx -6.70% loss on race, if horse falls over

The exposure of Lay risk has been reduced from -$300 Liability
(your pay out amnt), if horse wins instead of falling over, down to just -1c if the horse should win.

It's enough to do ones nut in it is , but once one plays around with it a couple of thousand times , it starts to take shape in our brains.

Cheers.

I had ago at it last night with $1 amounts and i can see how the stop loss works well, a few of the trades went against me and the stop loss reduced the loss to a few cents.

From what i can see it would be a tough way to make money but i guess nothing comes easy.

Take advantage of the "keep in play"
 

If your only interested in a few ticks profit, try placing your lay just before the jump, with a "keep in play" back a couple of ticks higher. A bit more risky, but unless the horse gets an absolute flying start, the natural ebb and flow of the in running market should see you matched. Don't get too greedy though. May not be the most prudent strategy on the fav - you'd have to pick your race there I think.

I have a new little strategy that takes the stress out of "trading".
I say "trading" because it's actually laying.

I have already half laid all UK markets now ;)
So I'll share it.

It's complicated, but easy.

Lay your horse when the markets are out of whack early.
The average market I lay into is over 110% on the lay side.

If your horse drifts, bonus, you've laid to your advantage and probably well under the final Betfair price.

Here's the tricky bit...

If your horse firms, I have two ways of reducing the liability.
I try and lay it again after it's tumbled right in and then back it back higher(hedging after a rebound), the profit comes off the intitial liability.
Most often a horse will tumble in price, but at least rebound somewhat.
Should this all be matched, you've reduced the effective price you laid at originally.
The second part is to back it at the lower price and then lay it in running (keep bets) at $1.02.

Why $1.02?

Everyone is laying at $1.01, in the first UK race, there's already 50k waiting in the queue to be matched at that price with 6 hours to go, you'd be well at the back of the queue. But at $1.02, any trades at $1.01 have to buy your stake first. There's only 3.5k waiting at $1.02 and you are effectively at the front of the $1.01 queue.

Here's a real example:

Lay a horse @ $1.47 early to payout $30.

Scenario 1

It moves to $1.55, sweet!
You've laid it well under the Betfair price.

Scenario 2

It moves to $1.35, oh no!

Place a win bet @ $1.35 for half your lay stake.
In this case $10.20
Place a lay bet for $10.20 @ $1.02 and make sure it's keep bets in play.

Should the horse win, you've laid it at $1.31
Should the horse lose, you've laid it at $1.59 but for half the stake.

The important thing is that you are laying winners below the price, laying losers for half the stake, but also any drifters for full stake plus your price advantage.
More winners firm dramatically, so you are laying your winners for lower prices.
Combine this with betting back as the horses plunge and you're doing o.k.

I use the combo now.

FOOTNOTE: for this to work, you must first trade the fluctuation to your advantage as the price plunges.

Hi Shaun,
Its hard to get a true feel of the profit potential using $1
Try using min of $2
This allows the maths to do its thing.

Heres another approach that I have found to work well, on keep in running for UK races.

.Target the 3rd fav only. 1 min till jump

.Target 2000m+races
(200m = a furlong & 1600m = a mile)
These distances give plenty of time for the market to move up & down.

.Place Lay bet first .

.Then make a win bet at 2 ticks higher for in running.

The reason why this works very well is that 3rd Fav win stat is only 15%
Therefore the chance of getting matched is extreemly high.

The profit per tranaction is approx 5%

If one is using the Faibot program, there is a "Keep" in running button which saves a lot of hassel of having to go into the Betfair Options section & changing the Keep option after ones bet has been placed.

Keep option can only be done on UK & Sth African events.

Cheers.

Hey mate,

I am playing with a few ideas, do you have a dutch lay formula for excel i want to test a few things with laying horses in the place market, i need to be able to return a set profit if just 1 runs a place.

Quite amazed nobody's commented or tried my approach.
Last night 20% POT
The night before 17.8% POT
The night before 15.6% POT
The previous night 26% POT
Last two weeks average 24% POT
Last month average 19.7% POT
Last six months average 22.4% POT

Hope someone can benefit from this info :(

Well done Chrome, it looks like you have worked out a good angle that's paying good returns.

I have read the idea a number of times, but I am finding it difficult to get my brain around it.

Is the odjective to try & reduce the liability by half ?

Cheers.

Hi Chrome,
I tried out the targeting the 3rd & 4th Fav betting the Blue side first at 1 tick higher than current price before placeing the Lay bet & it works a treat .

Less risky as well.

Thanks for that.

Cheers

Hi Chrome I was like Bhagwan didn't quite get it until I reread a few times.

Couple of Ques. 110% on the lay side, prices would have to come in to get close to 100% for the lay. (should that be back side)

Have you had any 1.02 in play matched lay's lose the race you would need approx. 1 in 50 to full over to get your money back.
Cheers
Off to work to get some money!! must be an ezy way

The idea is just to reduce liability by as much as you can.

Yeah, it does work a treat.
Don't panic if it goes against you and your profits will far outweigh your losses.
That's why I posted my surprise, something this good and simple is kicking butt :D

Sorry, yes I mean 110% on the back side DOH!

No, never seen a $1.02 lose yet.
In fact, I watch every race in-running with a bot, and I can't ever remember a $1.01 losing.
I'm sure they have, but I've not seen it, and I've watched thousands of races.
Plenty lose at $1.10 and $1.20, even saw a $1.05 go down the gurgler last night, but not at $1.02.

If a $1.02 gets beat, I only lose the back stake.
I get the full original lay stake, so there's no risk of actually losing too much at all.

Gotta laugh.
I raised the issue of trading several years ago.......and was howled down. Oh well.

Chrome, many a 1.01 has been beaten. I once saw 2 go down in the same race! A runner was way out in front, traded at 1.01........and fell at the last! The now new leader was also well ahead of the rest, traded at 1.01.......you guessed it, came a cropper at the last, leaving the next horse to go on and win. It is rare but they do get beaten.

I believe it because I've read the data in the files, but I haven't seen it happen live.

Might be dangerous, I might start laying $1.01 everywhere ;)

Where I find massive shifts like this is in sprint races, say 1000-1400m

Very rarely in 2000m+ races.

Cheers.

I need the formula for laying two horses in the place market, now i know i can't make a profit if they are both placed but if one of them is placed i would like to return a set profit plus the liability lost on the other runner.

For example 2 runners priced @ $1.50 and $1.70

If the $1.50 horse runs a place the other horse will retun me say $10 plus the liability i had to pay out on the plaed horse.

Hi Chrome, is your method just for favourites? is there a price range?

Thanks for sharing your ideas as usual.

Yes, I concentrate on favourites.

As it won't damage my returns, let me explain exactly what I do...

I go over to the UK markets about lunchtime and look at the favourite in each race.
The markets are usually around 110% or better to back (lays prices offered).
I place a lay bet a tick above the back price.
I place another lay bet 10 ticks below that.

So $3.50 and $3.00 for example.

An hour or two I go back and see what's matched and what's not, some ,markets will have scratchings, so all my bets on that market disappear.

So I resubmit any missing lay bets, and adjust any unmatched bets a tick above the offered back price.

I go through this cycle every hour or two until at least one of my two bets for each race is matched.

So far - so good.

You'll find some bonanza lays, such as matched at $3.00, favourite is deposed as favourite and trades at $6.00 at the off.
You've got a massive advantage here.

You'll find some lays that give little or no advantage, favourite trades close to the layed price anyway.

You'll also find favourites that trade just below the layed price, frustrating, but that's life.

However, you already have a massive advantage by laying the drifters early.


That's that covered, the next part is a doozy ;)

Say your $3.50 lay bet is matched and there is a power of money for you horse late, the $3.50 lay bet is matched, the $3.00 lay bet is matched and it's trading at $2.50 now.
You have double the liability at over the odds!!! :eek:

Well ,you've layed the horse at $3.25 for twice the amount, or possibly $3.10 if you lay to fixed liability rather than stake.

What I do is place an opposing win bet to keep in play for the second lay bet at the original odds.

So we have a $10 lay at $3.50
We have a $10 lay at $3.00
We have a $10 back (in play) at $3.50

Risky?

Not really, I've layed thousands of horses this way.

Just laying all favourites in market percentages of 110% (approx) gives a longterm profit of around 5% after commission.
Using the 10 tick below strategy returns around 7.5%

Taking advantage of the inplay insurance bet returns around 15% after commission is paid!

Why, because not only do we have the laid lower advantage, not only have we reduced the liability on the shorteners (enough times to make it worthwhile)

AND......

A lot of horses will trade at $3.50, trade at $3.00 and end up trading at $3.50 or $3.75 or $4.00 or better.

So you have laid a $3.50 horse at $3.00.
or a $3.75 horse at $3.00
or a $4.00 horse at $3.00

You have to your armoury
The early advantage of laying drifters
The early advantage of getting both bets triggered and the odds drifting.
The advantage of in play to try and lay lower

You have the ones that trade lower and never trade higher in running.

This happens rarely enough providing you've gone through all other insurance options to make it well worthwhile.

You'll easily return 15% including commission if you don't get rattled by 4 or 5 winning favourites in a row.

Follow it to the letter, and you'll make a killing longterm.

A word of warning: NEVER use in play to get you out of trouble, Murphy's law will see you come unstuck. Treat it mentally like insurance in BlackJack. If it gets matched, it's a bonus, if it doesn't - move on.
Make sure if you're below the trading price by the time they jump, you've cancelled the in play bet also.
Make sure none of your original bets are not in play - can happen if you haven't unticked the keep bets box.

your selection will be the one with last 3 runs totalling 10 or more
but there must be at least 2 placings in those 3 runs...ie 253
119 228 343 you get the drift i cleaned up today and got back 75 of the 200 i lost the other night .....

Hi Chrome do you back the drifters (greening up) or just let it ride knowing you have layed it at lower odds.

So Chrome, you essentially place 3 bets on the event, all before the jump? You can 'set and forget' with that method? Or have i missed something.

The laying at $1.02 thing you spoke about earlier is a slightly different approach again i assume.

Sounds very interesting.

ok in that example as i read it if lay the horse at 3.50 and 3.00 at 10 that is lose 45 if it wins back it at 3.35 so therefore if it wins you lose 10 if it loses you win 10

Yes **************** that liability button is perfect for lay bettors.

Sometimes called betting to odds.

It keeps the bets totaly in control at any given time & is considered to be one of the strongest methods to use according to a number of lay bet experts.

Cheers.

I let it ride.
I've layed under the odds, so I'm happy with that.

Yes, with the insurance bet either taken at rebound or inplay.
It is important to note you only place a back bet at the original odds if a lower lay bet is triggered.

It's not as set and forget as I'd like.
There is software that will do it, but unfortunately, to have it running on every race, the download usage is tremendous and the api calls exceeded attracting very excessive charges for the priviledge.
Also having 40 odds markets running at once will challenge even a quad core computer with 4 gig of ram :(

ok heres another even aesier one
1/ last sp higher than its previous one
2/this current sp 6s or<
3/ not the same jock
i tried to find a losing day at random ...blowed if i could looks like a goodun

****************,

dont post much, but read the forum often.
with your post at 8.55pm tonight, did your system win or lose on Ballina R2 , as I have calculated that horse 1 would have been the selection or have I understood the rules.

Cheers wombat2

wombat it is a lay system ballina r2 was a no bet same jockey was riding no2
ballina r1 lay no1
r6 lay no1
r7 lay 4and 9
r9 lay no1
thats it dead easy if 2 selections do whatever i chose to lay the 4 only in r7

CHROME what your strategies on trading ? are they still the same as april last year ? any help would be much appreciated as i am just getting my head around on this site and am very interested on learning and hopefully eventually helping other people learn how to trade

cheers