French Open 2008
 

Hi all,

A few of you may know of me, as the provider of tennis analysis for the Smartgambler Pro-Punter members. I have been providing tennis pricing and analysis for members for over 6 years.

This French Open we have an odds on pop (Nadal) attempting to extend his unbeaten run at Roland Garros (yep, he's NEVER been beaten here). But this year we have had a tighter lead up period, as evidenced by seven players pulling out before they were due to play - this may extend as the event progresses, especially as a number of players will be playing best of 5 set matches each day (due to the rain delays in the first three days of the event). Is Nadal vulnerable? Personally I have him rated as the best bloke in the draw by miles, however I do have his rating lower than last year and his lead up form has caused a slight decrease in his rating over the last few months. Let's not forget he had quite serious foot blisters a few weeks ago and to win 7 best of five sets matches is a big ask.

Personally I do think he will win again, but maybe there is a slight chink in his armour.

The draw does say Djokovic plays Nadal in one Semi with Federer playing Ferrer, Stepanek or Davydenko (in that order) in the other.

What do other people think? Have any of you had outright bets on this event?

H2H betting I think Karlovic is a special tonight (even given the heavy wet conditions) and will be watching all other matches but not punting.

If you are interested in my analysis of every match being played at the French Open, have a look at how you can recieve the info on the page http://www.propun.com.au/free_betti...ums_tennis.html

Cheers

Tony

Backed Robredo at 500s and Youzhny at 1000s

Both very juicy prices Chuck and I hope they can go deep into the draw for you.

Youzhny has made the Semis of a Slam (US Open in 2006) and made the 4th round here last year so certainly has the mettle to make it late into a Slam draw.

Having said that his lead up form has been a bit off and I've actually personally backed Maximo Gonzalez to cause an upset tonight at the 5.75. However if you've taken 1000-1 you only need a small stake on Max Gonzo to cover your intial bet.

Robredo has made at least the fourth round of a Slam 12 times and six of his last 7 here he's made the fourth round or the quarter finals - his only "failure" being 2002 when he was knocked out by Agassi in the third round. Does seem to struggle beyong the Quarters but hey if you have one of the last 8 standing at 500-1 you should be able to make a book around that (of course hoping that either or both of Nadal and Federer have been knocked out already).

I always like to break the draw into quarters and attempt to find the four Semi Finalists, backing one or two at nice prices, hoping they make it to the last 8 or so and then making a book around them.

This year the top quarter does look as though Federer will make it and you don't need to be a rocket scientist to call that. Since being knocked out in R3 here in 2004 he's at least made the Semis in the subsequent 15 Grand Slams, winning 10 of them and making the Final twice more. If he has to go under then Gonzo, Wawrinka and Soderling the most likely.

Next chunck of the draw I believe is the open section with Ferrer, Stepanek (who beat Federer in Rome), Davydenko and Robredo the most likely. On ratings I have Hewitt in that mix, however with no lead up form I'm discounting him. This is the section of the draw where some value may come. Davydenko the 4th shortest in the market at 44.0 (Betfair). Stepanek at 510.0 at Betfair look tempting as if he does play Federer in the Semis people will be taking the Rome result into account and you may get a fair price Federer (none of the 1.01 rubbish that goes on day in day out).

Third section sees Djokovic the one and I actually have him a shorter price than Federer to win the whole event - his issue is going to be beating Nadal in the Semis. Outside of Djokovic I actually have Lapentti, Bolelli then Blake, which shows the lack of depth in this section. Having said that Lapentti did make the Semis of the Aussie Open back in 1999 and the Quarters of Wimbledon in 2002 so he's no slouch. If Djokovic's body cracks (which it has been known to do) maybe the iron Ecquadorian can take advantage in the quarters.

Bottom section sees Nadal at a prohibitive price to get through, with only Almagro, Nalbandian and Verdasco the others with any show of making the Semis.

No genius here but I'll call Federer to beat Ferrer in one Semi and Nadal to beat Djokovic in the other, with Nadal making it 28 wins and zero losses at this event in the Final.

Of course my opinion only and all are welcome.

For my prices and comments on every match of the French see the link below.

Cheers

Tony

Before the Tourny i came up with this for the round of 16:

Federer
v
Soderling
----------------
Warinkla
v
Serra
----------------
Davydenko
v
Monfils
----------------
Robredo
v
Ferrer
----------------
Tipsarevic
v
Berdych
----------------
Mathieu
v
Djokovic
----------------
Garcia Lopez
v
Amalgro
----------------
Youzhny
v
Nadal

going well at the moment, berdych the only real disaster


i think Ferrer is a chance to go soon, i dont think he will make the semis. i just backed Monfils at 800s i think hes a wildcard chance

Bolleli looks to have a gift road to the quarters, just got him at 350s and should be able to lay off once he beats Blake ;)

Great call Tony "Max Gonzo a chance" - chance my ar*e, is competitive for three games, can't hold his serve and gets thumped 63,63,62 - well good luck to Chuck who is on Youzhny for a decent pay day.

Bottom section (top part thereof) of the draw is very interesting and if Djokovic can't make the Semis it will proove once and for all that he needs soft runs to the end of events.

Gulbis vs Lapentti
Bolelli vs Llodra
Schwaaa (they don't let me publish this blokes real name here) vs Mathieu
Odesnik vs Djokovic

If you take Nadal out of the equation then Djokovic last lost to a left handed player two years ago (Verdasco in Hamburg in 2006) so Odesnik and Llodra should not proove any problems here. Could the new Argy on the block Schw**** push the local or even push Djokovic? Could the best Italian we've seen for a while go deep into the draw?

Great to see Latvian vs Ecquadorian, a couple of lefties and a couple of youngsters. A great part of the draw.

Probably turn out boring with Djokovic creaming them all.

Cheers

Tony

I think Nadal - Djokovic semi-final would be an incredible game.

Federer's best chance of finally winning in Paris would be for Djokovic to beat Nadal.
I reckon Federer is psyched out by the combination of Nadal and clay, and playing Djokovic in the Final would enable him to play his best.

But Nadal is just a monster player on the surface, he lifts his game when playing Federer.

Only one Quarter Final each and you'll get your dream Semi Final Shonegg.

I do price both those guys quite short to win their Quarters (although you wouldn't need to be a rocket scientist to do so), and in all reality they should win them. The other side has an interesting section with Ljubicic, Monfils, Stepanek and Ferrer all playing for a Semi Final berth, where they'll likely meet Federer (who should beat Benneteau and Gonzalez to make the Semis of a Slam yet again).

Maybe we'll get a little more variety at Wimbledon, where full comments and pricing for every match will also be available, together with all the info for the lead up events in Queens, Halle, Nottingham and 's-Hertogenbosch, as well as the new clay event in Warsaw. Info on how to receive all the info FREE of charge, visit the link I posted in the first post below.

Cheers

Tony

Any thoughts on the womens winner or do you only concentrate on the mens matches?

Anybody know what Safina was paying tonight? I thought she had some sort of chance against Sharapova, but I was busy today and forgot to check out the odds in time.

I see Sharapova's won the first set and Safina's up a break in the 2nd.

backed ivanovic at $4 before Sharapova lost....and backed Azarenka at 120s at the start of the tourny, shes into 36 now

still got to cover my losses on robredo and youzhny, but monfils is also into 160s after i backed him at 800s

Damn!!!

Safina vs Sharapova was pretty much 50/50 match with bookies. Safina jumped at 1.926 with Pinnacle.


I don't price ladies matches, as the workload is enough with the mens for 48 weeks of the year. Although on that front I do watch a bit of it and will be taking on Jankovic from here on in (although dunno if the qualifier can do her in), as she just seems to lose it when deep in matches and has arm and shoulder problems - although all those injury time outs could be a mental edge ploy - the arm/shoulder problems didn't stop her from winning the other night but she did blow a 5-1 lead against a similarly injured Radwanska to fall over the line 7-6 in the second set. 4.0+ Suarez-Navarro will do me for a small play, but if she does win tonight it will be in the Semis where I'll take her on with a vengence.

The other Quarter Final tonight sees Ivanovic attempting to improve on her 22 win 6 loss record to lefties (amazingly of those 6 losses Schnyder has 4 of them, but hasn't beaten Ivanovic in their last 3 matches). Reckon she'll be the one through to the Final from that part of the draw (has a 6-1 H2H record against fellow Serb Jankovic) and have backed her outright at the 3.15 currently on offer, thinking there is no way she'll be a black a white price in the Final and I could back her opponent to cover my initial stake.

Cheers

Tony

Thanks for that.

Tony, how do you price the Nadal-Djokovic game? Today Djokovic made 39 unforced errors, high for a quality player. But he's a smart player, may need a top player to bring the best out of him.

For my prices you'd need to join the ATP forum, but it wouldn't be giving much away to say I rate Nadal the short priced favourite.

Below is part of my post for members, just to give you an idea on what sort of info I provide - of course there are also my prices and occassionally recommended bets.

A mouth watering match up with so much at stake:

1) Winner of the match will be World Number 2 - can Nadal retain that spot or will Djokovic snatch it?

2) If Nadal wins surely the title's his as well - Federer now having that "can't beat Nadal on dirt" bogey. If Djokovic wins does it open the door for Federer to finally put a French Open trophy alongside his 3 Aussie Open, 4 US Open and 5 Wimbledon Trophies?

Nadal holds an impressive 7-3 H2H record over Djokovic 4-0 on dirt those matches being:

7/6/2006 - French Open Quarter Final - 64,64 ret.
11/5/2007 - Rome Quarter Final - 62,63
8/6/2007 - French Open Semi Final - 75,64,62
17/5/2008 - Hamburg Semi Final - 75,26,62

Is Djokovic getting closer to a win?

Since 2005 Nadal has an amazing 127 win 4 loss record on dirt - losses being to Ferrero in Rome earlier this season (when he was hampered with foot blisters received in winning Barcelona the week before), Federer in the Hamburg Final last year (where he was exhausted by winning Rome, Barcelona and Monte Carlo in the lead ups), Andreev in Valencia back in 2005 and Gaudio in Buenos Aires in the early clay South American swing of 05.

Cheers

Tony

as much as a fan i am of DJOKOVIC... He will not beat Nadal.....period..

wooo Monfils into the semis....

and he is gonna get his aZsssss wipped by THE FED!

Doesn't matter now, can lay off for guaranteed nice profit....

Don't we love the brovado of the punters who come in at the 100m mark?

Woooohooo - I'm on the outsider........

Well done to all of you who called the Semis to be Federer vs Monfils and Djokovic vs Nadal, you are obviously all blessed.

Good luck to ya.

Cheers

Tony

PS - I'm on Federer to win Wimbledon.....but don't tell anyone

NRL INSITE!
 

Gday members,

For those interested i will post a pre-game wrap on all NRL fixtures as my knowledge and feedback of the game i believe is the success of my punting carreer. In the last 5 years my success has seen my POT sit at 66% on the NRL,(WHISH I COULD SAY THE SAME ABOUT THE THOROUGHBREDS----LOL.).

Hope to give u all some valuble tips every FRIDAY AFTERNOONS!!

CHEERS.

NRL INSITE!
 

Welcome Punters to this weeks games in the NRL.Should be able to find a couple of system winners for you as lots of players on duty for the state of origin. Home team announce first.
MATCH 1;DRAGONS v BRONCOS;Dragons at home should prove very hard to beat as always and they have strung a few together now. Broncos have lost 5 players to origin + hodges to suspension, and that win last week will have taken alot out of them. Dragons Sraight out @1.35 looks good value.

MATCH 2;WARRIORS v RABBITOHS;Warriors at home should trample the pathetic bunnies, but im prepared to risk them as there form is like a yo-yo.The bunnies are so poor and surely cant get any worse.Tip- Warriors, but no bet 4 me.

MATCH 3;BULLDOGS v KNIGHTS;Hard game to predict with Bulldogs having key players out due to injury, a-la Sonny bill williams, luke patten and jarred hickey.The knights on the other hand have Buderus,simpson and gidley engaged in origin. Both sides inconsistent at the moment. Tip Dogs.....but no bet 4 me.

MATCH 4;EELS v RAIDERS;The eels at home and on paper should win by 40 against a raiders side that just cannot win away from home. In saying that the eels have nearly been as poor as the bunnies this year. I am prepared to dismiss the eels form and crunch them at 1.25.Their forwards in Cayless, moi moi, hindmarsh and company should roll right through the ruck and set up and easy win. Take the 1.25 straight out and if its not raining take them at the line -10.5. Tip eels, depending on weather i suggest 1.25 in the wet and the line if the track is good.

MATCH 5;TIGERS v COWBOYS;Knowing coach Tim Sheens he will have his players on notice after recent performances , and that should be enough to ensure victory for them. Cowboys lose thurston to origin and matty bowen still out with injury. Tip Tigers, they are still under the odds though and no bet 4 me.

MATCH 6;PANTHERS v SHARKS;The panthers are on a roll and at home , they too should beat the sharks who will be without maybe the 2 most influencial players to a side in the competition, in Paul Gallen and Greg Bird.The panthers for mine though are yet to convince me as they too are hot and cold, and wen they are cold they are aaaaaa awful. Be wary though as this recent roll could be the start of things for them. TIP-PANTHERS, but no bet.

MATCH 7;SEA-EAGLES v ROOSTERS;Roosters have 5 quality players missing due to origin , and they are mostly forwards but their replacements have plenty of first grade exp. and are capable of doing the job.Manly at home atre very hard to beat and only lose 1 player to origin and are travelling along ok. Im prepared to take the 1.60 on the sea-eagles as i think that is well over the odds.TIP-SEA-EAGLES, 1.60 LOOKS GENEROUS,as does the line of-3.5 @1.90.

MATCH 8;TITANS v STORM;Titans have lost a couple in a row now after an awesome start to the season. They only lose 2 players to origin , where as the storm lose 10.The titans look real specials at the line of -13.5 @1.90, seen as though they are yet to lose at home and the storm are severly depleted. TIP-TITANS, BET 4 ME- line @1.90.

Good luck people and will be back tuesday for the wrap up!

Swingman, good analysis, wrong thread!

Today's tennis matches sees a blockbuster Dojkovic-Nadal. Or so I thought because betting indicates, not surprisingly, Nadal favorite, but $1.26?? Possibly Djokovic with +6.5 games at $1.8 is worth a punt.

Federer-Monfils. Set betting Federer 3-0 at $1.75 looks ok.

Tony, Ivanovic at $1.49 to win Womens. You've done well with your $3.15 early backing.

Not bad shopping for Ivanovic, given there were only 8 players left in the draw, and given the way Safina has been blessed I'll be Backing her at the 3.0 to cover my initial outlay.

I think both men's handicaps look good today - Monfils +8.5 especially tempting. It is rare that Federer wipes people off the courts only issue is Monfils can be a tad pea hearted when things don't go his way.

Personally not having a punt tonight just be watching them.

Cheers

Tony

Thanks Swingman for that... funny how you put that in this tennis thread tho.. lol.