CF and $ Neurals
 

Bhagwan, its pleasing to know that El Seigneur would have been today's selection, it was also promising that it was in Unitab's 96 point range.

Tomorrow's selections are:
Belmont R4 no.5 - Testa Royale
Gosford R1 no.5 - Forty Days
Mortlake R2 no.1 - Dauphin Cheval*
Murray Bridge R2 no.5 - Lightly Spiced*
Murray Bridge R5 no.6 - Kintyre Spirit*

* = 96-plus Unitab points.

Yes Micheal, it is an encouraging outcome.

We shall see if the 96ptrs makes for more consistancy .
Sometimes, adding an outside filter to such set ups, helps things along.

We should have an idea if it is so, after say a batch of 150 bets.

We shall see.

Cheers.

Hi guys, good food for thought

Just a query,
I get 7 selections using the rules not just 1 for Sunday. Not a criticism just making sure I was working them out correctly and not missing an important factor.

Hobart R2 Green Rises
Kalgoolie R1 Maquis and R3 Foretold
Pakenham R1 Scion
Sapphire C R5 Just Four Boys
Sunshine C R4 Hit The Road
Swan Hill R4 El Seigneur

I do get similiar to Michael's selections today

Thanks, Jimmy.

Bhagwan, I've checked the figures and agree with Jimmy except for Kalgoorlie R1 where I have only no. 6.

CF, $ and PR are on a setting of 3 with a maximum rated price of $1.55.

Are these the rules?

Hi Michael,

That other one at Kalgoorlie was R3 No.6 Foretold

great effort on saturday though using these rules
12 selections 11 placed
out 12 return 18.1 Prof 6.1

interesting to see how it goes

Thanks for bringing that to our attention.
I stuffed up somewhere with the Neual setting .
I must have pushed the button underneath.

The site definetly has some downloading complications in the day time.

3 from 6 for Sun 8/6/08
2.00/1.30
- / 1.90
6.40 / 2.60
Total
w $8.40 Prof +2.40
pl $5.80 Loss 0.20

They where saying on the radio that the bookies had a great day yesterday due to the number of outsiders getting up on the day.
Which was a reversal of Sat where they say they copped a hiding where the majority was won by the top 2 Favs most of the day.
The never ending shifts of sand....

Correction 4 from 7
Pakenham -/ 1.20

Which means the figures for the place broke even on the day.

If one is looking for a little action on both sides of the fence, maybe consider betting 1w x 6plc
This is a method that can work very well with these type of selections because of the average price range the selections seem to fall in & that is 5/1 & less... This is where the majority of results stem from statisticly.

It was the price range the late great Don Scot liked to pay special attention to.
Known to professionals as the killing field.
He often posted selections in various racing mags & would often say , dont bet it, if it is greater than 5/1 in the market.

Cheers.

Out of interest - and hopefully not confusing the issue - for comparison purposes I ran thru the races using the same approach as last Saturday.
(Couldn't do it earlier as I had an appointment on the golf course.)
The outcome after scratchings was some extra selections on top of those posted by Michael.
Mortlake R4#12
M.Bridge R4#1
MV R1#5
EF R3#1
EF R4#1

There were also a couple for Belmont but no Unitab Ratings for them
They were R4#15 (note #5 was orig selection but scratched)
and R5#4.
cheers ....Mancunian

Hi, Mancunian.

Those extra selections would most likely be due to scratchings which we don't take into account.

Eagle Farm R4 no.1 (Favashi) does not qualify because it won its last two starts, even though it should be close to a "sure thing".

So far, two selections have been run for a first and a third.

Yes sorry , I forgot about that rule.

Undoubtedly - and I certainly like the idea of getting them done the night before the races if the results are going to be almost the same.

A good day today. There was one scratching and from the remaining selections, all Unitab 96-plus pointers, two of them won paying $5.40 and all placed paying $3.70.

One selection tomotrrow:
Echuca R1 no.6 - Isa Halo. It has 95 Unitab points but is the second highest rated horse.

Gents,
For what its worth, here is a comparison of the 2 methods for races run on Mon 9 Jun - using NSW TAB divs.

CF and $ (selected night before) 3 bets for 2 winners and a 3rd
Out $3 - return for Win $5.60 / Pl out $3 return $3.70.
1 x 6 - Outlay $21 Return $27.80 = 32.3 percent profit.

CF and PR after scratchings (therefore only selected on raceday) using same rules as operated last Saturday. 7 bets for 5 winners a 3rd and 1 unplaced
Out $7 - return for win $13.70 / Pl out $7 return 7.80.
1 x 6 - Outlay $49 Return $60.50 = 23.4 percent profit.

Cheers.....Mancunian

"Old" system for today selects:
Echuca R2 # 1
Echuca R8 # 10
Scone R4 # 10.

MAncunian

Great start, Michael. Congrats!!

Yes, Merriguy - a great start, but it paid a most disappointing $1.10 for the Place on NSW TAB, yet $1.50 on Unitab.

There have now been 4 selections for 3 winners for a POT of 170% (maybe just a lucky period at the moment) and all 4 have placed for a POT of 20%.

Mancunian, we have been looking at the CF method (with Unitab's 96-plus points) on another thread but yesterday I forgot to check them which your results show would have been a winning day. I'll also list the selections for the method on this thread.

Three today:
Echuca R2 no.1 - Araynam
Echuca R8 no.10 - Tarademus
Scone R4 no.10 - Carefully Chosen

Should have kept quiet! Araynam no good.

I got $1.72 on Betfair for the place for Isa Halo; but only $3.95 for the win darn! (can never work out how to use those Smilies on this site!). Was betting 1:5 so that was O.K..

I realise to be balanced in reporting you need to stick to one Tab.

While speaking of B/F I often find that they are not as good for the win. I suppose it is the small pools in Oz racing.

ive often found it hard to obtain value on bf with the well supported nags, seems the markets closely reflect the bookies odds, at the top end anyway, but once betting over abt $7 is where huge overs are often available

Yes, Araynam was a disappointment.

I've noticed that all three selections today qualified because of the scratchings. There was one day where someone (Jimmy?) noticed that some selections only qualified because of scratchings and that they did not fare too well.

We'll see how the other two selections go.

Stugots, I've also noticed the same situation with Betfair. In fact, there have been several double-figure winners that have paid almost twice the NSW TAB divvy.

nsw tab
 

just on the nsw tab michaelg, on the face of it would you agree that of the 3 tabs, it's div's are usually the lowest?

havent done any research & have never bet with nsw, just an observation after watching hour after hour, day after day, year after year of sky

(note to self - must get a life!)

Stugots, betting is a life. Some well-known person (can't remember who) said that "when you bet you know that you are alive".

I think Unitab might be the worst with Win and Place divvies, but NSW seems not to be the best with the exotics. Maybe someone might disagree?

amen to that:)

I like the saying I saw from somewhere, which says.....

A man should have at least one bet a day....

Otherwise, he could be walking around lucky & never know it.


Cheers.

I like the saying I saw from somewhere, which says.....

A man should have at least one bet a day....

Otherwise, he could be walking around lucky & never know it.



Cheers.

You must of really liked it :)

Yes, I must of really liked it.

Cheers.

What about
"I broke even today - thank God, I could use the money."

As previously stated, today's sole selection won paying $5.40 and $1.10.

Tomorrow's selections:
Gawler R2 no.6
Avondale R3 no.9
Avondale R5 no.1
Avondale R7 no.9-
Belmont R1 no.6
Belmont R2 no.2
Bendigo R1 no.7
Canterbury R1 no.1
Canterbury R2 no.8
Dombeen R1 no.2
Dombeen R2 no.3

The CF and Unitab system failed today. As also previously stated, they were selections only because of the scratchings. So I'll ignore scratchings for tomorrow's racing and see how they go. They are:

Belmont R1 no.6
Belmont R3 no.9
Bendigo R1 no.7
Canterbury R1 no.1
Canterbury R2 no.8
Dombeen R7 no.3
Gawler R1 no.10
Gawler R2 no.6

CF and $ Neurals.
 

Hi to all, I have just picked up this thread and would appreciate if I could be pointed in the right direction for the selection criteria please. I do use the Neurals and have had mixed results in the past and would like a crack at this idea whatever it may be.....
Thanks in advance.

Enjay.

Its all there under...
Don Scotts Odds-On thread.

"I think Unitab might be the worst with Win and Place divvies, but NSW seems not to be the best with the exotics. Maybe someone might disagree?"-michaelg


michealg, my observations.

As you may recall I bet to place on short priced favorites and the past couple of years averaged show NSW at $1.182, Unitab at $1.195 and Betfair at $1.208...Before Commission removed!!!!! What is worse is that Betfair profits are far smaller due to the many occasions where you can't place a bet : where the price offered is silly or there's no money behind the price offered or the race jumps while I'm still trying to get on etc.

It's a strange way I do stuff but I don't mind betting on Unitab when it's showing $1.00 for the place because I know there's always a chance that the final divvy might be $1.50 or whatever, but I can't accept those $1.10 type offerings on Betfew, I mean Betfair.

Twobets, your figures show that there isn't too much difference with Place divvies between Unitab and NSW TAB. I've noticed that the NSW TAB when showing a divvy of $1.04 in early betting that it ultimately pays an acceptable price. Maybe because people bet around it causing it to ease. As you say this is also not unusual with Unitab.

However, I'm surprised with Betfair. I've found generally that the lower the TAB price then the better with Betfair. And if you are betting only short-priced horses then this is where there is the highest liquidity, which should mean that there is money behind the price offered. Of course this may not apply to some of the more obscure mid-week races.

B/F paying three places on the first at Bendigo!!!



But altogether too short!

With the 96pt rule , it might an idea to include the 95ptr if there is no 96ptr in the race.
There have been several getting up lately under these situations.

Cheers.

Good idea, Bhagwan. Will do so.

CF and $ Method.

There were 4 winners (even though its a Place method I will record Win results if/until they fail) from 10 selections paying $9.90, and 9 placegetters (the loser would have won on Betfair as they paid on the first three horses) for a return of $14.44.

Tomorrow's selections:
Gold Coast R3 no.8
New Plymouth R2 no.1
New Plymouth R7 no.3
New Plymouth R8 no.7
Northam R2 no.3
Sale R1 no.4
Sale R2 no.7
Sale R3 no.15

CF and Unitab Method.

Even though its early days, ignoring scratchings might be the way to go. There were 3 winners (again its a Place Method) from 5 selections for a return of $4.70, and all 5 placed for a return of $6.04.

Tomorrow's selections:
Sale R3 no.15
Sale R7 no.9
Gold Coast R1 no.1
Gold Coast R4 no.3
Hawkesbury R1 no.6
Hawkesbury R3 no.5

Hi Guys,

Interesting thread which got me thinking about setting the CF and PR to 3 and everything else to zero. (Thanks Michaelg for getting my brain out of idle!)
The rules I have used since 30th May are :-

1. Only consider Australian race meetings
2. Top point scorer(s) is the selection
3. Delete all horses that have had only one run or are 1st or 2nd up from a spell
4. Delete all horses with Unitab Rating <= 90
5. Delete all horses not placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd in both its past 2 starts
6. Delete all horses that have won their past 2 start

Results of these rules are :-

92 bets, 23 winners (25.0% S/R), 53 places (57.6% S/R)

Using the "worst case" scenario I have used the dividends of the Home TAB in these calculations. Obviously we would expect to get a better result with the numerous betting options open to us.

Win Bank +$16.20 Win POT % = 17.6%
Place Bank -$2.70 Place LOT % = -2.9%

I have also kept the Best of 3 Totes results

Win Bank +$34.85 Win POT % = +37.9%
Place Bank +$7.00 Place POT % = +7.6%

Bets for today would be

Sale R4#5 Destinationunknown
Hawkesbury R7#1 Ain't It Magic
Hawkesbury R9#5 Delenatii
Gold Coast R2#3 Girls Jeuney
Northam R5#5 Telluride
Northam R5#6 Snooperclyde
Northam R8#7 Ma Chienne

Try Try Again

Hi, Try Try Again.

Those are very promising results, and despite the 6 filters there is quite a bit of action because there were 92 bets in less than two weeks.

I presume the neural settings are CF and PR at 3, the others at 0.

The best of the 3 totes makes a huge difference to the bottom line. A very good example is one of today's selections - New Zealand R2 no.1. It won, paying $2.00 and $1.04 here in NSW, yet on Unitab it was $3.20 and $1.60. However, I don't think best of the TABs is available on Place betting for all meetings?

I'll be looking with interest at today's selections. Interestingly, none of them tallies with our selections.

Try Try Again.

Thanks for that .Looks quite interesting.

Cheers.
darky.

CF & $ Method.

There were 6 placegetters from 7 selections for a profit of $4.40.

There have now been 19 placegetters from 21 selections for a POT of 46%.

Tomorrow's selections:
Geelong R1 no.3
Geelong R4 no.2
Grafton R3 no.12
Matamata R2 no.5
Matamata R3 no.1
Mt Gambier R2 no.10
Mt Gambier R3 no.3
Mt Gambier R8 no.11
Rocky R1 no.1
Rocky R5 no.1


CF & Unitab Method.

There were 5 selections today for 4 placegetters for a profit of $1.10.

There have now been 9 placegetters from 10 selections for a POT of 19.4%.

Tomorrow's selections:
Geelong R1 no.3
Geelong R5 no.12
Mt Gambier R2 no.10
Mt Gambier R3 no.3
Mt Gambier R4 no.2
Queanbeyan R6 no.2
Rocky R1 no.1

Michael G, sorry to request this, but can you give the exact rules for your selections today ie the two systems CF & $, CF & Unitab. Unfortunately they get a little muddied as they get developed over the threads. Are CF, CP & $ all 3 or just CF & PR? Is the max price $1.50 or $1.55? Are we betting 1x4 or 1x6?

Also Michael, how is the original Don Scott system of (1) Rated $1.50 or less & (2) Last Start 1 or 2, going?

Thanks for your clarification. As always your input on this forum is most appreciated.

Tony