Top 3 Plan.
 

Rules.
Target races with 9-13 runners only.

Target the first 5 names in Pre post market.

.Must be in top 5 in Win percentage rankings.

.Must also be in top 5 in Place percentage rankings.

If left 3 or less selections bet them all.

cheers.

Hey Bhagwan,

Sounds interesting, have you any stats on this..?

Paul

It seems to work best on any Handicap race where longer priced horses tend to get up.

Cheers.

Hi Bhagwan, I did a brief test on this (on paper) on Tuesday Races.
I left out Maiden races and only went on the others that had 9-13 starters.
The result i got wasn't brilliant Out $24 for Return of only $4.90 (2 winners from 9 races) BUT I did a comparison on the same races using top 5 API (suggested by LuckyBoy in another post), which gave a return of $22 from an outlay of $31. Not remarkable, people may say but if we had dutched them on an outlay of $10 per race the result was out $100 return $107. Still not a big deal but this was 4 winners paying $11.10/$2.10/$5.90/2.80 and there were quite a few bets on horses showing over $13.00 at the time.
(After looking back at the races 4 of them had 4 qualifiers so under the top 3 rule they would not have been eligible. Of those 4 races there was only the $2.10 winner therefore the real picture is much better.
i.e using the API for the TOP 3 the outlay would've been $19 and return $19.90 and dutching woul have been outlay $60 return $94.40).
Sorry about that confusion

I was "Dutching" probably a couple of hours before the jump, so a potential max price limit would help.
Certainly needs a bit more attention.

Too much on this weekend to have much of a go myself, but when I can I'll try out on slightly adjusted rules :

Handicap Races but not maidens.
9-13 starters after scratchings.
First 5 in the prepost market taken from R & S.
First 5 in API (Ave Prizemoney Index).
If 3 or less qualifiers in a race, back them for a win or Dutch them.

Thanks again Bhagwan for pointing us in the right direction

Regards......Mancunian

Thanks M for your valuable input & kind words.

Those figures look impressive.

Dutching does improve the figures where the winners are shorter priced which makes up the majority of winners , but if its a day where the odd $15.00 & $20 winners decide to get up, betting the same amount will obviously produce a greater return.

I guess its a question of wheather its a day for the 2 favs getting up or a day for the longer priced horses that get up.

I have always been amazed at some of the excellent prices that get up in Hcp events, therefore well worth targeting.

I use Betfair where the prices are often double to that show on the TAB once they get over $10 as shown on the TAB.
For instance Townsville R4/6 Thur 25th Simones Got Class paid $16.70 UniTAB
it was 3rd Fav in R & S pre post, but it was up to 10 pts better on Betfair.

Cheers.

Selections for todays Races :
Randwick
Race 4 - 2/6/9
Race 5 - 3/5/10
Race 7 - 1/5/10
Kyneton
Race 6 - 1/2/3
Race 8 - 1/2/3

May revisit Kyneton Races 7 and 9 to get prices closer to jump time as they both have 4 qualifiers but 1 in each race may get eliminated if outside the price range.

Cheers.....Mancunian

No good today
on win bets it would've been out $15 return $2.40.
dutching outlay (at $10 per race) $50 for a return of ($12.40).

Will check a bit further for a while

cheers...Mancunian

A few selections for today:

Ipsw
R7 - 2/5
R9 - 1/3/10
Geel
R5 - 2/4/6
R7 - 1/9
Wyong
R7 - 1/2/4
R8 - 1/3/5
Belm
R4 - 6/8

May check Belm Races 5, 7, 8 later to look for possible eliminations - too many qualifiers at this stage.

Cheers.....Mancunian

Results
7 Races 4 winners
For Win Bet - Outlay $18 return $22.10 Vic TAB.
Dutching @ $10 per race - Outlay $70 return $56.50.

Note : one left out because div showing $19.10 when I checked some 2 hours before the race was Ipsw Race 7 #1 which won and paid $13.00 !

Anyway aside from that there are some promising signs and I feel worth pursuing a bit further.

Cheers.....Mancunian.

Top 3 sels Fri 03 Oct

MRY R5 - 2/3/5
MRY R7 - 2/8
ROK R6 - 1/6/8
ROK R7 - 2/3/5
TAM R8 - 4/5/8
WMB R8 - 1/3

cheers.....Manc

Result (using simple Vic TAB divis)
for win bets - outlay $18 for a return of $19
dutching @ $10 per race - outlay $60 return $75.80.

golf tomorrow morning - see how I go doing some early races tonight before scratchings etc.

cheers ......Manc

Top 3 Plan sels - Mon 6 Oct

B'dale :
R6 - 2/3/4
R7 - 1/3/5
Ballina
R6 - 1/7
R7 - 1/4
R10 - 7/9
Morph :
R5 - 1/2/6
R6 - 3/7
W.Farm :
R3 - 4/6/9
R8 - 1/2/4

cheers...Manc

Heres another angle.

Target the first 3 horses one comes to starting at the 3rd line of favortism in the pre post market.

Bet all 3 horses.

There could be 2-5 horses making up the 1st & 2nd fav line of betting.
We ignore all theses.

Start at the 3rd line of betting for our 3 horses.

Some good payers can be struck with this idea.

Results- 9 races for 3 winners
Win bets outlay $23, return $19
Dutching outlay $90, return $72.10.

Poor day but not disastrous.
will post weekend results and review of what has happened so far, shortly.

Cheers ...Mancunian

TOP 3 Plan Selections - Tue 07 Oct
 

Geelong:
R6-9
R7-4/7/8
R8-2/10/12
Kembla:
R4-4/6/9
R5-9
R6-2/4/9
R8-5
TSV:
R3-2/9/10
R6-1/4
R7-2/3/4
R8-1/8

Cheers....Manc

2nd Top 3
 

Hi Bhagwan,
Thought I'd give this a shot (on paper) while I was looking at the Top 3.
I've just used the same races i.e. fields of 9-13 and not maiden races.
From the prepost market I've left out the first 2 lines then taken the next 3 horses. Todays selections :
Geelong:
r6-9/11/12
r7-2/6/8
r8-6/7/12
Kembla:
r4-4/6/9
r5-1/3/11
r6-8/9/11
r8-4/5/7
TSV:
r3-4/6/10
r6-2/8/9
r7-4/5/11
r8-2/6/8
See how they go....Cheers...Mancunian

Weekend Results
 

Sat 04 Oct.
Only looked at Metro races -
there were 16 races for 11 winners
win bets - outlay $41 for a return of $36.60.
Dutching - outlay $160 for return of $184.20.

too many short priced favs. on the day - will consider either leaving short favourites out OR omitting those races.

Sun 05 Oct.
All Aust meetings -
there were 11 races for 8 winners
win bets - outlay $31 for a return of $35.40
Dutching - outlay $110 for return of $116.

Cheers......Manc

Results: 11 races 7 winners.
win bets - outlay $25 for a return of $31.30
Dutching - outlay $110 for return $129.90

Cheers...... manc

Result 11 races for 4 winners
$11.30/$9.10/$5.90/$5.60 (Supertab)
Outlay $33 return $31.90 for straight $1 win bets.

Cheers.....Manc

Not bad M. considering that there is no form study.

Much better prices would have been had using Betfair.
Min 20% better.
Some were double the price of SuperTAB.

It would be interesting to see if there is a differemce to be had if one stopped at each venue where a winner was struck.

Thanks for all your input M.
It makes for very interesting ongoing stats.

Cheers.

Top 3 Selections Wed 8 Oct
 

Strath
r6-5/6/9
Dmb
r7-5/10
r8-1/5/6
Cant
r7-3
Bath
r6-3/8
r7-4/9/10
Belm
r3-1/9
r5-4/6/8
r7-2/4
r8-2

Cheers....Mancunian

Results Wed and Thu
 

Bit of a disaster on Wed.
only 2 winners from 10 races
outlay $22 for a return of $9.80
Dutching outlay $100 return $24.40

Thu results 5 races for 3 winners
outlay $14 return $12.90
Dutching out $50 return $44.50.

Cheers...Mancunian

Undeterred - Sels for Fri 10 Oct
 

PMQ:
r3-1/7/8
r4-2/6/8
r6-6/10
r7-2/4/5
r8-11
S'Cst:
r3-2/3/4
r6-1/4/9
r7-1/3/5
WGA:
r5-4/5/7
r6-3/7
r8-1/4
Wang:
r7-10/11/14
r8-1/6/7
r9-2/5
MV:
r2-2/3/8
r5-2/9/11
r7-1/2
r8-1/5/7
Cheers.....Mancunian

Another poor day outlay $47 return $26.30 on win bets
Dutching was out $178 for a return of $134.50.

A couple of observations tho'

there were 3 winners that I were in original 4 qualifiers but left out due to being over the max allowable estimated dividend of $13.00.
their Starting prices were $12.80/$7.30/$15.60.
There were 4 races at MV for 11 qualifiers and only 1 winner at $2.30.
There has been some encoraging signs over the couple of weeks - enough to warrant a bit of effort in trying to refine it a bit, but I'm going to be out of action for a few days (away from the computer that is) so I'll just do a bit of review of the results so far.

Cheers for now.......Mancunian