Top 5 & Second Stringers
 

Following are my top 5 selections for Saturday 1 November 2008 and my next 4 for the same:

TOP 5
AWAPUNI
R5 no8 TURFSTAR
R6 no 10 BALLY HEIGHTS
R10 no 1 VALHALLA
FLEMINGTON
R3 no 8 MOATIZE
R9 no 8 HOT DANISH


SECOND STRINGERS
AWAPUNI
R4 no 4 SKI
R8 no 6 HAPPY VICTORY
TE AWAMUTU
R5 no 3 MR COOL
R6 no 6 BLACKHALL

Results Saturday 1 November 2008
 

Top 5 (all up parlay IASbet prices)
Win: Outlay = $31 Return = $91.94
Place: Outlay = $31 Return = $299.85

Second Stringers
Win Outlay = $15 Return = $30.20
Place Outlay = $15 Return = $7.36

Top 5 for Tuesday 4 November 2008
 

FLEMINGTON
R7 no 5 NOM DU JEU

TRENTHAM
R8 no 10 KUDDAM
R10 no7 SPARTANICUS

ELLERSLIE
R3 no 8 GEEZA
R10 no 10 KILIFI

Results Tuesday 4 November 2008
 

Top 5 (All Up IASBET)
Win Bets
Outlay = $31
Return = $0

Place Bets
Outlay = $31
Return = $30.60

Progressive
Win
Outlay = $62
Reurn = $91.94

Place
Outlay = $62
Return = $330.45

Top 5 & Second Stringers Thursday 6 November 2008
 

Top 5
FLEMINGTON
R1 no 1 ZIPANESE
R2 no6 RAEBURN
R6 no5 MISS SCARLATTI
R9 no 2 ROCKPECKER
HAWKESBURY
R8 no 5 ALVERTA


SECOND STRINGERS
HAWKESBURY
R9 no 7 TYRONE PRINCE
FLEMINGTON
R4 no 16 BELLE SOCIETY
R5 no 10 BANKSDALE
R8 no 2 GRAND DUELS

Results OAKS Day 2008
 

(IASBET prices for all up parlays)
TOP 5
Outlay: $31 win and $31 place
Return = $4.30 win and $32.81 place

Progressive:
WIN OUTLAY $93
RETURN = $96.24
PLACE OUTLAY = $93
RETURN = $363.25

SECOND STRINGERS
OUTLAY = $15 win and place
RETURN = $0

Progressive:
Outlay win and place = $30
Win Return = $30.20
Place = $7.36

Top 5 & Second Stringers Saturday 8 November 2008
 

TOP 5

RICCARTON
R7 no 3 SKIRMISH
R8 no 4 IMANI
FLEMINGTON
R2 no 6 QUEEN'S KISS
R5 no 10 LIBERTY EDITION
R7 no 5 SEA BATTLE

SECOND STRINGERS

RICCARTON
R6 no 11 BRIAN
FLEMINGTON
R6 no 8 SUNBURNT LAND
DOOMBEN
R6 no 6 PAYMORE
R7 no 13 PENTACITY

Results Saturday 8 November 2008
 

RESULTS ARE FOR MULTI BET PARLAY ON IASBET

TOP 5
OUTLAY = $31 Win & Place
RETURN = $0 win and $2.80 place
PROGRESSIVE OUTLAY = $124 WIN & PLACE
PROGRESSIVE RETURN = $96.24 win & $366.05 place

SECOND STRINGERS
OUTLAY = $15 WIN & PLACE
RETURN = $0 WIN & $9.41 PLACE
PROGRESSIVE OUTLAY = $45 win & place
PROGRESSIVE RETURN = $30.20 win and $16.77 place

some impressive results there percemum, but can you explain the amount bet there a bit more? confused!

Reply to Partypooper
 

Thanks Partypooper. I've got a bit of good luck/will in reserve for the inevitable curse of the forum at the moment.

The amounts outlaid are for combining horses in all possible combinations i.e. 1 horse, 2 horses (doubles), 3 horses (trebles), 4 horses (quadrellas) and 5 horses (not sure what they're called - probably quintellas or something like that.

For my second stringers I'm coupling 4 horses this way so there are 15 combinations in which they can win and also place.

Call the imaginary races Race A, Race B, Race C and Race D. The possible combinations are:

1. a single bet on each horse. A B C D (4 bets in all)
2. all of the possible doubles AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD (6 bets in all)
3. all of the possible trebles ABC, ABD, ACD, BCD (4 bets in all)
4. all of the possible quadrellas ABCD (1 bet in all)

Altogether there are 15 combinations (for a $1 stake an outlay of $15).
With the dividends multiplying, if you are lucky enough to snag a few horses, the return can be sizeable.

For 5 horses there are 31 such combinations.

It's probably the horseplayers version of the lottery / windfall bet.

IASBET allow across code and different venue bets on this kind of bet which they list as 'multis'.

Hope this explains it a bit.

Thanks Percentum, yes I understand now, being an aa-pom I am familiar with combination betting, it was the 31 bets (for 5) that threw me, but now I understand 26 bets in the combo + 5 singles, good stuff, though I didn't realise that AIS were accepting these now.

Worth considering that you can also allot a higher stake for the doubles, and lesser on the Trebles & 4'somes, (i.e. less likely to succeed.) but I would always leave a full unit for the 5 horse accumalator as this can be the lifechanger!

Percentum's Top 5 Sunday 16 November 2008
 

Think I'll have a go today after a week in hospital getting a knee replacement. For those of you who think it's like changing racing plates, think again. Anyway, enough of this racing metaphor stuff. They are:


NEWCASTLE
R7 no 12 CONVENT HILL
BUNBURY
R7 no 8 UNDERTAKE DANE
R8 no 1 DANGEROUS DANE
HOBART
R7 no 11 ESPRIT OF EVE
R9 no 7 HEARTBREAK KID

Percentum, once again 1 unit EW level stakes produces an acceptable profit. Just as a matter of interest have you ever run the excercise of calculating the total amount staked over a period of time divided by the number of selections to arrive at an average stake per selection, and then see what the POT would have been had you placed this amount on each selection???? you see what I'm getting at?
Just food for thought, it took me 30+ years to get there!

PS. I could do with a Knee, back, elbow, foot and hip replacement, and I wouldn't mind swapping this gut for a flat one, and maybe adding a few inches somewhere else! hee hee!

Update Sunday 16 November 2008
 

Partypooper, I actually haven't done any research tweaking these about and I have reached a stage in life where laziness is appealing. One thing I know I have to do is eliminate horses with just one start to their names as selections. Because they show up in my selection process I've been putting them in but, clearly, this is flawed. Before I started posting these I had a good 40/1 winner called Skirmish in one such bet (4 legs only, 2 won and all placed so return was really good). It had only had 3 starts and I think I might make this my minimum starts cut off point from now on. I think I'll curb my enthusiasm and stick to Saturdays and, perhaps, some cup meetings midweek like the approaching Ballarat Cup. The NZers who show up in my selections have excellent strength and depth in their form and will probably be the mainstays of the successes I have (if any) so I like there to be an accompanying NZ meeting.

As for the spare parts. The getting I don't mind. The process is a bit of a worry though. I thought it'd be a simple pinfiring, out in the paddock to freshen up and then Bob's your uncle. Rehab exercises are painful and I keep finding diversions to avoid them.

Sunday's Results

OUTLAY: $31 W & P
RETURN $7.95 W and $8.64 P

Percentum, I'm really sorry that you see it as *lazyness* I found the revelation as the opposite, i.e I tried every which way to show a better profit than level stakes, but everytime I applied the formula that I described in my last post (HONESTLY) level stakes won out every time!!

Most simply won't admit it, if I'm wrong on this occasion then I humbly accept defeat!

Party, Alan Rowland, who formerly owned Punters' Choice before Ian Barns believed that there was no difference between flat level stakes and various staking plans. In the end it all balanced out. The staking plan may have recouped all monies lost in a series with a $2 winner backed at high stakes but, equally, a pittance could have been had on a 100/1 winner earlier in a sequence. (Does this make sense? I'm noy sure. I know what I mean though.)

22 November 2008
 

Fingers crossed for these today:

TOP 5
Pukeko
R6 no 1 Culminate
R10 no 13 Valhalla

Adelaide
R7 no 8 Whoishe

Perth
R6 no 2 Fun Spice
R7 no 16 Grand Nirvana

Second Stringers

Brisbane
R6 no 1 Albert The Fat
R8 no 7 Covet Gold

Pukekoe
R7 no 9 Puttanesca
R8 no 3 Ginga Dude


Best Roughie
Pukekoe R6 no 15 Striker

26 November 2008
 

Might try these today:

Sandown
R5 no 9 Gazza Guru
Bunbury
R8 no 5 Bushels
R9 no4 Delta Bay
Te Aroha
R4 no5 Jessardo
R10 no4 Je Suis

Top 5 Friday 28 November 2008
 

Lots of depth at Otaki today. Here's hoping for these:
R5 no 15 Regal Secret
R6 no 12 Flavio
R8 no 2 Blackall
R9 no 5 Spartanicus
R10 no 4 Grasshopper

Saturday 29 November 2008
 

Top 5

Ellerslie
R10 no 11 Mr Cool

Wanganui
R8 no 12 Kovak

Eagle Farm
R5 no 13 stature
R7 no 11 Desdemona
R8 no 12 Framous

Second Stringers
Wanganui
R1 no 2 Inevitable
R7 no 13 Fuji Walk
Eagle Farm
R3 no 16 My Counsel
R6 no 12 Pentacity

Best Roughie
Eagle Farm R7 Doug's Mate

Top 5 Wednesday 3 December 2008
 

Struth! Hope I can dig myself out of a hole with these at a very tough Avondale meeting.

Top 5
R4 no5 Desert Lad
R5 no 18 Jac Pot
R7 no 7 Carchelo
R8 no 6 Post Road
R9 no 4 Sterling Prince

Saturday 6 December 2008
 

For some reason I feel a little confident today. Not sure why.

Top 5
Ascot
R7 no 16 Grand Nirvana
R8 no 9 Scenicism
Doomben
R1 no 5 Paymore
R7 no 8 Bar Linnie
R8 no 18 Covet Gold


Second Stringers
Avondale
R3 no 2 Glam Slam
R7 no 2 Montetra
Trentham
R6 no 5 Halls
R10 no 4 Conchord

Top 5 Saturday 13 December 2008
 

Nice little result last Saturday with 3 out of 4 of the second stringers winning and all 4 placed. Usual tough races in NZ today but all horses listed have good depth in their form and a multiple collect will be very worthwhile.

AWAPUNI
R4 no 13 STARK JUSTICE (gets back and gets home but poor strike rate)
TE RAPA
R8 no 6 EQUALS THAT
R9 no 3 CULMINATE (ultra consistent)
R10 no 11 REPOSADO (promising type)
EAGLE FARM
R5 no 13 PRIMEVAL DEMAND (consistent up and comer)

Top 5 Friday 19 December 2008
 

I like these a bit today; all at Riccarton.

R1 no 3 Grand Rapids
R8 no7 Kay's Dreams
R9 no 6 Wellesley
R10 no 3 Menelaus
R11 no 6 Monkey Business

Saturday 20 December 2008
 

Like these at odds today. All are at the very spacious Awapuni track.

R1 no 8 Regal Secret (been unlucky lately but a tough race)
R4 no 9 Shi Kin Fly (racing well at the moment)
R5 no 11 Macadamia (down in class on recent runs)
R7 no 11 Fereira (honest stayer)
R10 no 17 Possum (chance at odds with Conchord very short)

Friday 26 December 2008
 

A decent start last week with the first two winning at good EW odds. Possum was a late scratching.
Hope you all had a beaut Christmas. These may help with the credit card.
Top 5
Ellerslie
R5 no 1 Morelle (consistent up and comer)
R6 no 8 Puttanesca (needs a strong pace as she getrs back and finishes on)
R9 no 3 Ginga Dude (good horse but tough race)
Adelaide
R6 no 11 Close The Door (promising)
Brisbane
R3 no 5 Covet The Gold

Second Stringers
Awapuni
R7 no 8 The Black Oak (big finish; has been freshened)
Brisbane
R6 no 9 Paymore (very honest but struggling to win)
R7 no 8 Bazzooka (I think he's a bit underrated)
Melbourne
R6 no 7 Time Matters (honest horse but second up)

Saturday 27 December 2008
 

In spite of recent performances I feel a little confident today. There's not a lot of depth in the fields. Anyway, here goes.

TOP 5
Te Aroha
R4 no 11 Jacpot (chance in even race)
R10 no 5 Bally Magic
(Pukekura
R7 no 10 Stark Justice rode him up last start - big finish when quietly ridden)

Doomben
R5 no 8 Express Air (promising but has to beat Youthful Jack)
R7 no 2 Bar Linnie (top class horse)

Thursday 1 January 2009
 

These may pay to follow today (then again...)

Top 5
ELLERSLIE
R5 no 15 Don Domingo
R6 no 11 Starmon
R7 no 4 Culminate
R9 no 18 May The Horse Be Magic
R10 no 8 Equals That

Second Stringers
WAIKOUAITI
R9 no 2 Dear John
HASTINGS
R5 no 4 Under & Over
R7 no 11 Conchord
GOLD COAST
R7 no 2 Forestreno

Saturday 10 January 2009
 

Nice, quiet little meetings in NZ today. As on most Saturday mornings, I'm feeling confident today.

TOP 5
AWAPUNI
R1 no 4 Albus (consistent horse in average field)
R2 no 4 Daffodil (resuming from short break - classy)
R3 no 4 Regal Secret (highly promising)
R5 no 10 Phantom Storm (considered a Derby horse by connections)
R8 no 15 Scandalous (good chance at odds)

SECOND STRINGERS
ELLERSLIE
R6 no 12 Sun Ruler (fairly consistent in short career)
R8 no 7 Yamanna (always runs a good race)
R9 no 8 Late Addition ( good value chance)
R10 no 10 Vonusti (been consistent though a little disappointing last time)

Saturday 17 January 2009
 

Good value at Trentham today. I'll be on these (all up).

R2 no 7 Occidentalis
R3 no 9 Henree
R4 no 3 Numero Lago
R5 no5 Cellmate
R10 no 12 Colonel Danske

Maximum Star is a good outsider in the big sprint (race 9).

Saturday 24 January 2009
 

TOP 5

RICCARTON
R6 no 6 Fellini
R9 no 9 Madam Stravinsky
TRENTHAM
R1 no 6 Cordova Bay
R3 no 9 De Los Angeles
R6 no 2 Culminate

SECOND STRINGERS

RICCARTON
R8 no 9 Outrage
R10 no 17 Pentiful
TRENTHAM
R5 no 5 Skirmish
R8 no 13 Scandalous

Correction 24 January 2009
 

Trentham second stringers have wrong numbers. Should read at Trentham: R5 no 4 Skirmish and R7 no 13 Scandalous.

Sunday 25 January 2009
 

Top 5 (parlay)

Launceston
R1 no 1 Royal Work
R9 no 12 Mr Reminiscing
R10 no 7 Perero
Tamworth
R5 no 9 Molly Rocks
R8 no 5 Sutton Friend


Second Stringers (parlay)
Ballina
R5 no 4 Strategic Partner
Ballarat
R7 no 8 Mosseltov
Yarra Glen
R9 no 5 Supreme De Lago
R10 no 7 Rapid Reserve

26 February 2009
 

More of the same rubbish from a few weeks ago. I've added another criterion and, as the curse of the forum dictates, have had a dream run. Am I just another aaaaer on an ego trip? Probably, but let's see.

This is an all up parlay. Results listed are for $0.50 win and $1 place (total cost $56.50).

AWAPUNI
R7 Valhalla
R8 Spartanicus
R9 In To Win
BALLARAT
R7 Romano's Xaar
R8 Lethal Guy

Top 5 Friday 27 February 2009
 

Unlucky yesterday with Lethal Gal running fourth which would have given a nice result with a place quadrella. Today's are at the NZ track whose spelling escapes me at the moment (the one with lots of o's and u's in it).

R3 no 8 Parole
R4 no 1 Don't ask
R6 no 9 Klassicpins
R7 no 11 Telem
R8 no 14 Vital Princess

yeh was hoping lethal gun would pull throu but was not the case

Top 5 Saturday 28 February 2009
 

Trentham
R8 no 10 Just Smokin'
Melbourne
R8 no3 Falaise
Adelaide
R5 no 5 Venetian Star
R6 no 11 Distinctive Lass
R8 no 15 Stakhanovite

Sunday 1 May 2009
 

Nice place collect on IAS yesterday. Shame we couldn't link Falaise up with a winner. Just Smokin' was late scratching.

Interesting Ellerslie meeting today. A shame the track will be a bog.

Ellerslie
R2 no 8 Marahau
R5 no 5 Wearemarshall
R7 no 2 Special Mission
R9 no 9 Easy Ryder
R10 no 11 Dane Ruler

Monday 2 March 2009
 

Townsville
R4 no 8 Vittorial
R5 no 1 King Cash
R6 no 1 Dane Merchant
R7 no 4 Expecting
Terang
R8 no 2 Johan's Love

Wednesday 4 March 2009
 

Top 5

Ellerslie
R1 no 11 Skai Glow
R5 no 13 Copybook
R6 no 15 Conchord
R7 no 7 Norse Affair
R8 no 5 Align To Infinity

Second Stringers
R2 no 7 Magic Places
R3 no 5 Neon
R4 no 4 Denver
R10 no 15 Cannavaro

(suggest $0.5 x $1 parlay)