System Testing gurus
 

I am wondering if any of you with databases, happen to have any systems which you know of that are slight losers, or break even at best. Am after some base systems to tinker with, applying my own filters to try and kick into profit. Ideally I would like something that is a high turnover win system to begin with. Anyone keen to help me out? Not too worried if they throw up a couple of selections in a race. Just want something to play with over the next few months while I take a break before starting back up work full time.

Thorns, I've got a couple of simple methods I was using a long time ago. They went ok but haven't paid them much heed. In these days of lots of meetings and available form they'd get a bit of action. Their big downfall was restricted action which led to a loss of interest.
I called them 'The Fresh Approach' and 'Ten Down'. Punters' Choice actually gave me a bit of a pat on the back for Fresh Approach for looking at a different angle. That was about 1985. Let me know how we can exchange material if you're interested.

Yeah, would be interested in that. exchanging details is hard. However I am a big fan of winnerinsix ratings and enjoy a discussion there.

Thorns, I think this may be a bit too simple for what you're after but has good results: level stakes win only BEST TOTE/SP or if country best of NSW/Supertab (Sportsbet)
(1) 100 rating (unitab)
(2) last start winner within 21 days.
(3) Pre-post fav (WA TAB-Form (available free on -line) may work with other publications but dont know.

thats it

1. 4yo Horses Only
2. <=1600m races
3. Not resuming from a spell
4. $3 or less favourite

Selections 3,874
Wins 1,572 (S/R 40.6%)
Places 2,744 (S/R 70.8%)
WLOT -5.7%
PLOT -4.5%

5. Not racing at same track

Selections 2,233
Wins 929 (S/R 41.6%)
Places 1,577 (S/R 70.6%)
WLOT -2.6%
PLOT -4.3%

Good luck...

Cheers guys, exactly the sort of ideas I am after.

Top Weight

Fav

Won Last start

Same Distance .

Same jockey.

Cheers.
darky

Ten Down System
 

1. Field of 10 or less
2. place strike rate of 50% +
3. barriers 1, 2 or 3
4. last run finished 1, 2 or 3 in a field of 14+

Hi guys and in particular Partypooper,

Your simple plan surrounding the favourite caught my attention. Have you any sort of stats on this plan,..? I dont have access to any great data base, but I have collected some books over the years written by "professionals in this game". So I dont think I am allowed to give my resources out here, but, some of the stats I have come up with on favs are:

A winning fav who was a last start winner, won 35% of its races.
" " " second, won 24% of its races.
" " " third, won 10% of its races.
These stats DO NO include first uppers or first starters. The actual win % of these for favs is pretty low ( 8% and 3%).

A couple of other interesting stats for favs is the prizemoney factor, based on ranked order of prizemoney.

Favs with the top ranked PM win 36% of their races.

Then we have the Win Strike ranking order.

Favs with the top ranked Win Strike win 31% of their races.

Then we come to the "Days since last start". This is what my source book tells me in relation to favs:

7 days and less 10%
14 days 46%
21 days 20%
28 days 4%
29 plus 11%

I have a few other stats on here also, but I dont want to go on and on.

So what do we then make of all this. See if I can get my brain around a few things here, just thought I would toss these around, more minds are better than one.

Paul

G'day all, Pauls123 question. unfortunately I only kept stats for Perth over 4 years = 39+ S/R and almost 7% POT, I mucked around with this and increased the POT substancially but the result of course was not enough bets. I stress though that I always bet best of 3 totes or (SP) @ Sportsbet.
Maybe some of the men with the data available can shed some light on how this plan performs in the other states Metro only or overall inc. country?????

Hi Party, Just on the sole basis of say * 100 Unitab, * Last start winner within 21 days, and * started favourite. Today I looked at Seymore, 1 bet for a place, Rockhampton was abandoned, no bets in early races, and tonight at Canterbury, 1 bet for 1 winner, race 2, odds on.

So not a lot of action really so to speak, and if one put in more rules then far less action. But I will look at this over the next couple of days and have a looksee.

Paul

Pauls123, qualifiers tomorrow using WA TAB-FORM, PR1-2, PR2-1, PR5-2, SR1-5, SR2-2, BR2-1, AR1-1, just for the exercise, but the profits on this one accrued over *TIME*

Hey Party,

Just had a quick squizz at today's races, I played bowls all arvo. I looked at Goulburn, Sunshine Coast and Cessnock. With my rules which are your revised rules,.....100 Unitab, within 21 days, and started Fav:, there were just 6 bets.

For 1 winner ($2.64), and 5 placings all up (total $7,97), Ias prices.

I'll look through most of the saturday meetings for tomorrow, when I have more time, for curiosity sake.

Paul

CORRECTION, PR5 should read no 1 of course.

Hey Party, just to make sure, is your PR, meaning Perth races..?

I've had a frustrating day here today, my internet went down at 11am, apparently Telstra had some major problems, really messed up me putting my bets on. Anyway, back to my racing now, shall check out all these things directlly,
Paul

pauls123, yes PR = Perth Races, but not a good day today 6 bets overall, for i winner $2.80c + 4 places = $6.50c, but as I say its long term that counts.

8.33% POT place betting at IAS prices is pretty good I reckon ;)

Just thought I'd show some previous weeks to give you an idea, last week 15th Nov (Sat) 11 bets, 3 wins but only $8.80c, but place 8 from 11 with $12.30c return.

Yesterday, saturday I looked at Randwick, Sandown, E Farm, Cheltenham and Gold Coast. 9 races, for 3 winners ($10.58) and 6 placings ($8.43)......hmmm,.!

Paul

I wonder what is the ultimate long term system?

I have no idea,...! But I think I will just plod along with my analysis of sectional times which I have been doing for the last couple of years now, it keeps my head above water. A thought occurred to me a fortnight ago. Any horses that I highlight (and then blackbook) from my sectional time and tv replay study, I then look back at their last prep/s and look at the similar runs in last time and even the time before, against this time. It's amazing just how similar the patterns are for some horses. Yesterday, saturday the two standout bets from my bb'ers on this basis were Causeyacan and Flying Ruby. They both won.

I'd love to know a lot more about Excel spreadsheets. EG, can you say put a horse from there, plus say a cell that might have a rating number on it, into a sort of database,..???, that is retrievable in alphabetical order,..??

Paul

Well if I could answer that *I PROBABLY WOULDN'T* hahah! but as far as the system I put up here, it's worked for 4 years that I know of, maybe more, and I'm confident that it will continue UNLESS something changes i.e. the method of WA TAB-FORM to form the pre-post market changes, or who ever does the ratings loses the contract etc etc etc.

I can tantalising tell you that by adding just one more rule to those posted, turned this into a 30% POT winner, and 14% POT for the place and is on-going. (but halved the bets)

But one thing I know for sure is that the ultimate long term winning system is MECHANICAL (MATHEMATICAL) in the same way the the book is fixed mathematically against us 130%, 120% etc etc, so the loophole is there I believe to reverse that, but remember you may be working on 1-2% on turnover. A lot of punters would baulk at that, I say bring it on!

Just three more things to add, LEVEL STAKES, LEVEL STAKES, LEVEL STAKES

Are you a serious punter PP ?
 

"Just three more things to add, LEVEL STAKES, LEVEL STAKES, LEVEL STAKES"

I was perusing another forum and there was this forumite talking about whether we were serious punters or not. Then I saw young PP's post and I thought, "this needs to be said!"

Please don't anyone think that I am any kind of authority on these matters. This is simply one blokes opinion. ( Developed over many, many years of full time punting never the less).

This simple quote of young PP's is to me the essence of whether you are to make a living off this game or not. One thing that worries me about this post I'm doing is that it flies in the face of the Bagman and I really do regard this forumite highly. I know he is a great staking plan punter and value all he contributes highly. Having said that I now have to say that if you really want to live off this wonderful game I believe PP's quote is "THE ONLY RULE THAT CAN'T BE BROKEN".

In the short term, be it one month, one year or whatever, a good staking plan will always outperform level stakes. But when you start wanting to actually live off your winnings I believe one will find any sort of staking plan (other than percentage of bank ) is simply not sustainable be it because of bet size, bank size or just too much freaking blood pressure.

So my defining questions of a serious punter are not "how big is your bet?" but "how disciplined are you at sticking with your system and are you betting level stakes ?"

I hope this helps some poor soul to avoid that impossible loosing run and is using a staking plan.

TWO BETS, Bhagwan and I are good mates and communicate regularly "off forum" I respect all of his input and understand where he is coming from with the staking plans. I do in fact run some aggressive staking plans (for fun) alongside my staid LEVEL STAKES bets.

To be serious as you say, one has to effect a POT i.e. PROFIT ON TURNOVER, now it doesn't really matter whether you are using a staking plan or not as long as you are consistantly showing a POT.

But here is where Bhagwan and I diverse, as Ian Barnes said there is "no difference between level stakes and a staking plan" in other words re-iterating what I have said that it's showing the POT that matters.

I'll try once again to explain that in laymans terms (not that I'm a big shot by the way just my humble opinion of course)............ OK so you use a staking plan over a given set of selections, lets say it's progressive stakes for example. Just for arguments sake, say 11111, 22222, 33333, 44444, 55555, stop and go back to 1 after a profit is shown (remember this is just illustration purposes) it could be any staking plan.

So, over 10,000 bets you will have so many bets @ 1, so many bets at 2, so many bets at 3, so many bets at 4, and so many bets at 5, you will have a given S/R and either POT or LOT which will not change wether you have 1 unit bets or 5 unit bets (this is where Bhagwan and I see things from another angle)

In fact if you now add up the total amount of stakes you have wagered divide it by the number of bets to give you an average stake, apply this to the total odds returned you will see that as Ian Barnes said there is no difference in the S/R or POT (LOT)

So to answer your question TWO BETS,.... YES I am very serious.

I believe most progressive staking plans can be dangerous if one cant pick the winners.
That goes for level stakes as well but not as dangerous

Some rules I follow when using most staking approaches.

DUE TARGET METHOD
If using a due target plan e.g. $5 a race plus losses.
e.g. 10 races at $5 profit per race = $50 target by the 10th bet + losses

Target per race should be .01% of bank.
So $5 a race, should be using a $5000 bank.

Ones max bet should be under 4% of bank.
If bet requires an amount 4%+, add say 3 to 5pts to the divisor.
This will bring the outlay down below the 4% for the next few races.
This helps keep things in check until the winners decide to pop up.

I also stop betting if I strike say 9 outs in a row then wait for 2 winners to get up before recommencing.
It's not the most perfect way of avoiding the long run of outs, but it does give one the feeling of some control.

FIXED TARGET METHOD
If going for a fixed target amount, I feel an amount of 1 to 2.5% of bank is the safest.

I believe its usually best not to carry over losses if possible , it tends to have a disturbing influence on the general psyche of a punter.

Try a stop for the day if up on ones bank is up between 1.5 - 5% on the day .

Its amazing how often a punter is up in the say the first half of the day, only to give it all back in the next half of the day.

What is also amazing is that 5% seems to be a lot easier to achieve than say 8% .
One will often find they hit the magic 5% then battle for the rest of the day to end up with the same 5% ,weird!

Discipline is the big thing alright & very few punters have it.

I feel if one practices stopping at say 5% or less , they should have a greater chance of long term success.

The most successful plans seem to be the stop at a winner for the day.
Most punters don't like this idea because they feel there is more winners to be had where that came from & there's the rub and raises the question, is the punter more interested in a volumn of winners or are they interested in making money.

I feel one should restart at the beginning as soon as any profit is made , no matter how small because its the going for the promise of the big pay off is the punters undoing long term.

Therefore I feel staking plans should realy be used to recover losses more so than making huge profits.

BETTING TO PRICE
An alternatitve to level stakes betting which usually works well is betting to price to return say 5% of bank.
This allows for approx 40 outs on average selections.

e.g. Bank $5000 @ 5% = $250
Say our horse is $4.00 divided into $250 = O/L $63

With this method , we are assuming more shorter priced horses get up than longer priced horses which is usually the case according to the stats.
What this tries to do is even out the returns long term.

Example.Betting to price to return $250
R1- $4.00 ........O/L $63
R2 - $2.20 .......... 114
R3 - 2.80 ............ 89
R4 - 10.00 ........... 25
R5 - $5.00 ........... 50
R6 - $6.00 ........... 42
Total O/L $383


Lets say the 2 shortest priced horses got up for a ret 2 x $250 = $500
$500 - $383 = +$117 profit

If betting level stakes, a loss of 1 unit or -16.7%
or -$63.83 if the above Total amount was bet accross the 6 selections, same amount on each.

One of course is going to miss out when the larger payers get up , but just in case you havent already noticed , most level stakes selection plans show a level stakes loss, mainly because more was not placed on the winning prices & less money should have been placed on the loosing prices.

Most of the winning prices will be at the shorter end of town and that is what this plan is trying to address.
It often improves a selection plans results.

Its an idea to treat odds on horses as $2.20 if one feels they must bet these commodities.

LEVEL STAKES METHOD
This plan can work very well.
Bet 1/200th of bank up & down .

Reset bet amount at the start of each new day..
e.g. If we are down to say $180 , bet 1/200th of this remaining amount for the whole day.

The reason 1/200th is used is that it smooths out the rapid ups & downs on the bank balance, that can happen if using a lesser divisor.
It is also very good for the confidence of a punter knowing there is a strategy in place, especially after a horror run of outs.

Cheers.

I have one problem with this, I do agree with the statement. The problem is you dont now how much $$$ the progressive staking plans will cost you, you don't now your total outlay so how do you now what stake to use at level stakes??? so really it cann't be done.

Cheers

Crackone, I see what you mean, but in most cases people would have had a "dry run" for a decent period of time b4 putting on real money, so by doing the hypothetical exercise described you would have a fair idea what you are likely to be staking over a period of time. But apart from this, one would imagine that you also work backwards from what you expect to make, i.e. for arguments sake you want to make $1000 a week , you expect to make say 15% on turnover (so work on 10%), so you need to be "investing" $10,000 a week, say there is an average of 40 bets a week so you need to be investing $250 on each level stakes and an available (hypothetical) bank of $25,000 i.e. 100 bets, though where one would get cold feet is something else, if you start off into profit you're ok, but if you start off into a long losing run, who knows???

hey partypooper

I just wanted to ckeck something you said earlier re: your system and betting style and you indicated win only but I noticed a later post where you indicated you had 11 bets with 8 placings for XXX return.

Just a couple of questions, do you bet metro meetings only, Saturdays only and is it strictly win only, or each way as well?

The reason I ask is I just checked today's meetings and using 100 rater, last start winner withing 21 days and pre-post fave, could only spot 2 candidates. Is that usually higher for city and Saturday meetings?

cheers. It's an interesting topic.

honkin

honkin, my main betting is for the place at Metro only. But I've got several other plans going for the win and win/place as well.

The method I descibed was originally devised with place betting in mind but after extensive research showed better returns for the win.

What I would suggest is just use the idea as a base for selections and then tweak it to your own taste.

cheers partypooper

just kind of tweaking a few things, really. I did find that there seems to be very limited opportunities with what you describe, though. Like today as an example, there is only 1 in Sydney and 1 in Melbourne. Nothing in Adelaide, Brisbane or Perth.

Being in Melbourne, I am naturally using the supertab ratings, but to find a 100 rater with a last start win inside 21 days that is also pre-post fave at the TAB website, has only resulted in 2 candidates. Do you find similar results using unitab?

cheers

honkin

honkin, it probably won't make a lot of difference as long as you stick to the one source of pre-post market, but there will be different selections in some cases.

Today using my rules and WA TAB-FORM (available free on line) contenders are/were

AR 1-1, 3-2, 6-8, and SR 2-1, 6-4

2 wins , 5 placed!!

hey partypooper

Just checking your results with S-Tab and the return is $6.44 for $5 outlayed, which is quite decent, so $1.28 for each $ invested or 28% return.

The only thing that got me was the elimination of some candidates due to not being pre-post favourite. I had 3 possibles in Sydney, but S-Tab had SR 1-1, SR2-1 and SR 4-2 as 100 raters, but only Turf Express was clear fave. The other 2 were second favourites by maybe 30c or so and I left them out.

Perhaps that is an area where I could test it with a smidge of leniency and allow second fave to also be included. I guess over in the west, some that were second fave here were listed as fave.

I have no issues picking a few winners each week, with 4 in Melbourne on Saturday - races 3, 4, 5 +6. We have a small punters club at a pub here (maybe 30 to 50 people) and it is $10 in each: 3 pts for 1st, 2 for 2nd and 3 for 3rd - winner takes all. Won it on the weekend again.

I kind of like your concept of betting place only on 100 rating faves as a decent method to generate some extra return though.

Do you bet through the TAB system, or do you find other suppliers offer better odds?

cheers and thanks for sharing some info

honkin

just one last thing, partypooper

I just checked the form guide from Saturday and the 3 I mentioned in Sydney were all listed as faves there. It was just checking the market on race day morning had only 1 of the 3 as fave, so I left the other 2 out.

Do you work from your local rag pre-post price or from the TAB or other website?

cheers again

honkin

Honkin, whats with the strange questions.
Party already clearly stated that he uses the WA pre post market online from his local rag.

The TAB is a live market, newpaper price is pre post market.
You do know the difference dont you.
He uses the UniTAB wt rating pts of 100pts only, for his selection.
Dont take any notice of the live market price shown there.


Another online source for pre post market is Racingandsports

There are only 3 simple rules & people still manage to balls them up... Strange

For those who didnt read the rules , here they are yet again.
(1) 100 rating (unitab)
(2) last start winner within 21 days.
(3) Pre-post fav (WA TAB-Form (available free on -line) may work with other publications but dont know.


Simple.

Yeah, as I said I don't think it would make a lot of difference *over time* whatever source of pre-post market you use as long as you use the same source all the time. Also probably the live market, say maybe bet 1 minute b4 the off.

But the reason that I used the PP (Tab-Form) is so that the selections are determined and bets placed well in advance.

I have only used this plan on Saturdays Metro, but would be interested in how it fares overall??? anyone got the data?

Hey Partypooper, the ratings that are provided on the new look WA Tabform guide are actually the same ratings that you find on the Unitab website, so in fact, you can get all the information required at the one place!

Sportz, yes I originated the plan using Fridays Tab-Form. But thought that as the ratings are the same anyone can find them on Unitab and use another source of Pre-post market if preferred.

Post deleted. Flaming.
Please also note that anyone is entitled to give their response to a posted question, provided it is a polite response.

Moderator 3.

Hi Honkin,


I wouldnt use TAB as prepost ever. NEVER. The reason is that the prices reflect the pool size and individual support on each horse will be pool size - TAB Takeout /units on horse . As we all know the real money dosent start coming untill last 2-5 min before race and continues up untill jump. Mostly the early money is from people that arent or dont want to bet late. It could include me with $100 in a $300 pool ...... that sort of thing would make anything favorite. News paper or other services is the only true early market. If its right or not that is a nother question.

Michal