Framing a market
 

Does anyone know where I can find info on how to frame a market?

Your better off going to the other section of the forum: 'Race Betting Systems Forum' for this sort of thing. It's mostly tips and stuff in this section.

It depends.
Do you want to know which factors to use, how to convert a rating to a percentage or how to convert percentages to price?

I can help if you already have ratings.

Here is a method that I find that works as well as anything else out there...

Pull up the Neural site.

Put in ones favorite Neural settings.

Number of runners to target.
6-10 runners, target top 6 horses
11-12..........................7
13-14..........................8
15 only .......................9

No more than 15 runners.

Setting of Neural market percentage.
Allow 1.5pts for each runner & add to 100%
e.g. 12 runners x 1.5 = 18
18 + 100 = 118% market to be set at in the Neural where it defaults to 114%
This is a very powerful way of setting ones market & you wont miss many doing it this way.

Run you cursor over the factory default setting of 114% & change it to your market percentage.

Don't forget to press the scratchings button after setting the percentage for that market. (Very important)
Also double check to see that they have not missed any scratchings, if they have , simply untick the box in front of the horses name.

Now bet to your accessed price.
We do this by dividing our accessed price into say 5% of our bank.
e.g. $200 bank @ 5% = $10 this is our base takeout figure.
$10 divided by our accessed price say $3.60 = O/L $2.80

Now do the same thing for your top 6+ runners

The 5% of bank usually allows for 40 outs.

We only bet on the horses which match up to our price or more.

This process works best on all Hcp races where the larger payers tend to appear.

It is best to use Betfair for this process.

Use one of the Betfair betting application tools e.g. Race Trader Pro (FREE) this application can bet to your 5% takeout figure without you having to manually work it out , they call it their Book Maker program.
Another program that works it out for you is Bet IE , this would be my choice for this exercise because it can do many other things.

Another is Fairbot, which is the one I use, cost $133 per year with a 16 day free trial.
Bet amounts have to be done manually for this exercise, which is no big deal.


These tools allow one to bet under the Betfair minimum amount which is what we need when doing multiple betting.

I place the bet out there even if my price required is way over because its amazing how many times I have seen a horse that is showing say $10 blow out to say $16 for only 2 seconds before going back to $10

Its a fun way to bet with some excellent returns on days where the Fav decide not to get up all day.

I find the favs tend to get up less in Hcp events so try & only target races where the word Hcp appears somewhere in the header at the top.
One might have to look up 2-3 places to check that.
If I cant find the word "Hcp" in the race description , I wont bet the race.

Targeting the Hcp events helps to reduce the workload and using the Neurals reduces the workload even more dramatically, rather than doing it manually.

If one wishes to narrow the race volumn down, maybe target races where the pre post fave is $3.50+


I hope this helps you out Mjh.

Cheers.

Framing your own market is an effective way to punt like the pros and allows you to analyse a race and put an odds figure on any horse to find horses representing true value.

Criteria for framing your own market:
A simple way to do this is to have a maximum and minimum figure to work with that can give you a percentage that can be converted to odds, and ideally that would be from 0 to 10, with 10 points being best and zero points being worst.

Chance Points
Great Chance 10
Good Chance 8
Fair Chance 6
Some Chance 4
Rough Chance 2
No Chance 0

Assessing a race:
Once you have picked out a race to assess you can then work your way through each horse’s form and give it a rating from 0 to 10. If you consider a horse has no chance then you would give it zero, and if you thought it was a great chance then you would give it a 10, and anywhere in between for any other chances.

Assume you have finished analysing a race with 8 horses and allotted the following points.

Horse Rating Points:
Don't Cry, Fair Chance 6
Mama Mia, Good Chance 8
November Rain, Some Chance 4
Sweet Child, No Chance 0
Paradise City, Rough Chance 2
My Michelle, Good Chance 8
Like a Lady, No Chance 0
Civil War, No Chance 0

Finalise market chances:
You have narrowed a field of eight horses down to only 5 realistic chances as shown below.

Horse Points:
Don't Cry 6
Mama Mia 8
November Rain 4
Paradise City 2
My Michelle 8
Points 28

Convert chances percentage to odds:
It is a simple process to convert each horse’s points to a percentage which will then allow a price to be attached to each horse. The five horses combined total of points is 28. We simply divide each horse's individual points by the total of 28 and then multiply by 100 to get the percentage figure. Using the percentage converter at the bottom of the page we can then put a monetary figure to each horse's percentage and we have our market.

Horse Calculation Percentage Odds:
Don't Cry 6/28 *100 21% $4.75
Mama Mia 8/28 *100 29% $3.50
November Rain 4/28 *100 14% $7.00
Paradise City 2/28 *100 7% $14.00
My Michelle 8/28 *100 29% $3.50
Market 100%

Compare rated odds to actual odds:
Now that you have created a price for each horse it is relatively easy to determine a horse’s value when you see the actual market for the race.

Horse Percentage Rated Odds Actual Odds Value:
Don't Cry 21% $4.75 $3.50 No
Mama Mia 29% $3.50 $6.50 Yes
November Rain 14% $7.00 $6.00 No
Paradise City 7% $14.00 $4.25 No
My Michelle 29% $3.50 $5.50 Yes

Sticking to this [your own] subjective valuation will let you know how good your form assesments are and if reasonable, you will be betting overlays, not underlays which is the only way to profit on the punt.

Thanks for sharing it.


Which one?



aaahh, some tools. I'll bookmark these for later use.



It isn't exactly what I was after but it has opened my mind up to a whole new world.

Thanks again for the post.

Cheers,

mjh

Thanks for the info Crash. It's a great help.

I think it's a good method to get me started and I'll make adjustments to it and my form analysis as I gain in experience.

Cheers,

mjh

I forgot to add the % converter method to work out the final price. Just divide 100 by the % which when rounded to the nearest 10 cents gives the price.

Hi Crash & mjh,

To simplify the calculation of the rating to odds, just divide the total of all horse ratings by the individual horse's rating.

e.g. Horse Cry 28/6 = $4.75
Mama Mia 28/8 = $3.50 etc.

Try Try Again

Neurals can be found at racingandsports.

Thanks for all the info guys.

I'm glad I posted the question now.

How did you guys learn about this stuff?

After 38yrs of punting a few things sank in, except how to get rich on the punt!

Another way of converting percentages to price is...

1 divided by horses percentage.

e.g.
1 / 26% (press % key) = $3.85

Cheers.

Another simple way of framing ones own market that can work well....

Get hold of any pre post market

Target the 6+ horses as mentioned in previous post.

Target the pre post price & multiply buy .90

e.g. Pre post $6.00 x .90 = 5.40 is now ones accessed price.

We now bet those horses which match our accessed price or more & delete those that don't.

Bet to price to a take out figure, say 5% of bank of $200.
e.g. $10 / $5.40 = O/L $1.85
If one hits say $10.00 div x 1.85 = Ret $18.51

Do the same for ones other selected contenders.

This can work well if there are not too many scratchings.

It is a quick simple way that can snag the odd juicy payer.

Cheers.

Perhaps that may take another 38 years Crash

Thanks for that.

The faster calculations can be done the better.

Perhaps an Excel spreadsheet might do that for me

Hi Bhagwan,
Re your post 11/12/2008 eg "target prepost 6.00 x.90 = 5.40 is now ones assessed price" By mulitplying a figure less than 1 would be taking unders would it not? Or if the 6.00 was multiplied by 1.10 = 6.60 and this price could be obtained this would be overs would it not ? We need to be taking a standard overlay or greater to win in the long run. Have seen on this forum previously of prices being multiplied by .80 and others use .90 but have never understood why so what is the reasoning behind this ?

Regards Jack

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Using bold type throughout your post is shouting. Please do not shout. Moderator 3.

Quite simply Jack is that the rest of the field, say beyond 80%, consists of horses with long odds not worth considering. So often a price-line doesn't include all horses to save time. It might only include the top 5 in the market considering they win 80% of races.

Hi Jack,
The method seems to work better this way rather than just taking the std. pre post price whereby many winners are missed.

If one were to use the std pre post price or increase the figure , one would expect to see a LOT.

Cheers.

Another way of framing a more accurate market, is to take the prepost market and combine it with a tipsters poll.

The proviso is that it must cover at least ten individual tipsters.

Convert the prepost prices to percentages.
Allocate 3 points for a win tip, 2 points for a second place tip and 1 point for third place.

Add the points to the percentages and reframe the market to 100%.

So a $2.00 shot will most likely end up $1.80
a $5.00 shot will probably end up $4.50
But the other untipped horses will drift.

Just like the real thing...only crunchy ;)

You then have a lay price and a back price before anybody else does ;)

It will also identify when the prepost market is out of whack.
It's not always accurate, but it's far more accurate than potshot prepost :D

ten? i can dig up maybe 1/2 dozen but 10?

If you are in Melbourne you have a total of 14 tipsters in the Herald-Sun and The Age. The is another 6 or 7 in The Sportsman.

I guess it just depends on where you live.

Try Try Again

the local rag here has 3 max & i rarely buy it being the disgrace to journalism that it is