RaceCensus New System
 

A new system has been added to RaceCensus based on exhaustive research of how horses mature and develop as they get older.

These are the results:

Selections: 1,135
Winners: 387
Strike Rate: 34.10%
Return: $1,251.80
Profit: $ 116.80 (at basic tote prices)
POT: 10.29%
Average Price $3.23
Minimum Price $1.10
Maximum Price $7.80 ****

15 winners based on the maximum price make up the profit!!!

This method has been added to the free systems and tutorial included with the purchase of the RaceCensus horse racing database.

Adding up all the free system returns betting only on Metropolitan tracks returns a whopping 507 units profit.

Why is it whopping?

a) Because it's not made up from one or two horses at big odds
b) Because the returns quoted are at arguably the worst value available.
Top Fluctuation, Betfair etc add at a minimum of 10% more profit.

Previous purchasers of the database are entitled to the details of this new method for free, just by contacting me.

Over how long a period is that 507 units profit made out of curiosity?

thorns,
The profit is made over eight years, however, that is betting on metro races only and using lousy TAB dividends.

The idea behind it all is not in the profit (because it is metro races only) the idea is to construct something that holds up over a long period of time to have the confidence to apply it to any race in any country.

I can tell you without hesitation that all the systems work on all Australian, Hong Kong, South African, UK and US races, because I have had them independently tested and use them myself.

The only thing the punter has to do, is get the best price he can on each selection to guarantee a profit over time.

This is because there are very few filters, and relate to horses, not particular tracks, track surfaces, or climates AND most importantly, do not derive their profits from longshots.

All I can say is the systems I tested and derived from Race Census produced the following results for 2008:

Bets 420
Wins 142 (S/R 33.8%)
Plcs 242 (S/R 57.6%)
Win +329
Place + 43
WinPOT 78.4% (Av. Div $5.28)
PlcPOT 10.2% (Av. Div $1.91)

....and yes all were bet with real $$$$ for 2008 year....I'm not sure how long it will continue, but these systems have shown similar results for the 7 year test period prior to the actual betting year, so.... I'm slightly confident it should continue to show a profit, how much, not sure as long as it's at least one unit by years end...

(All Metro tracks, surfaces and conditions)

hey chrome,

How easy is the software to use, do you need to be a computer guru to use it, and will it be compatible with vista at any stage. looks good value to me.
cheers

Hi luv2bet,
The software is extremely easy to use.
There is a tutorial which walks you through step by step using the systems included to get you started.
This is a tool, a system developer to help you find profitable methods.
It doesn't pick out upcoming selections in races, you have to do that part yourself.
That's half the fun of it ;)

Judging by the number of requests for help, it's extremely easy to pick up once you've done the tutorial.
I think the only queries I've had from clients were questions on very advanced filtering or non selection rules.

Unfortunately I won't be making this program Vista compatable, I've had a couple of clients get it working on Vista who said this:

"once program is installed, right click shortcut, click on properties, go to compatibility and down the bottom put a tick on ‘run as administrator’ and they will just be prompted each time they run the program to allow"
- thankyou Shane.

However, I can not guarantee this will give you all the functionality that the program requires and can not guarantee the software under Vista.

Vista has a whole lot of rights and operating system anomalies, which is why it is pointless making it Vista compliant.
I will certainly look at making it compatible with the next Microsoft OS release.

I will add that some guys just got an old pc with XP on it and ran it on that, if they have Vista on their main computers.
The database will operate on Pentium 2 or Pentium 3 with 256MB memory.
It is also Mac compliant and Windows 98 compliant.

These look good today (eachway)

Port Macquarie R4 H1 Ship It In (should ship it in) ;)
Port Macquarie R7 H1 Young Bid

Cheers.

Ship It In $1.80 $1.60
Young Bid $2.50

Eachway POT 47.50%
Win POT -10%
Place POT 105%

hi chrome,
can you drop me an email, got a few questions in relation to race census before i purchase it.


carntee at y7mail dot com.

cheers

Google
Microsoft Virtual PC
Free download, install XP or any other OS in Vista.

Easy as, works like charm!

luv2bet,
Sent you an email yesterday.

TOOWOOMBA
R 3 #12 BACKINAFLASH
R 6 # 1 UMHLANGA ROCKS
ROSEHILL
R 4 # 1 RAIN GAME
NEWCASTLE
R 8 # 9 CANE CHAMPAGNE
MORPHETTVILLE
R 5 # 6 ALCOPOP
FLEMINGTON
R 5 # 7 AT THE OASIS
EAGLE FARM
R 7 # 9 STATURE
R 7 #13 HEART
R 8 #16 FLOOD HERO
ASCOT
R 2 # 4 TEARINUPTHECOUNTRY
R 3 # 2 PROART

These are from the RaceCensus systems (manually selected).
They are suggested bets only if under double figure odds.

I too can vouch for Chromes data base and systems.

Easy to use and the systems supplied with it are real money spinners.

Cheers.
darky.

23/01/2009 MOONEE VALLEY
R 3 #10 FAMILY BLISS

24/01/2009 SANDOWN
R 6 #17 WHERE'S HENRY

24/01/2009 MORPHETTVILLE
R 1 # 3 HE'S HERE
R 3 # 4 MANILA HEAT
R 4 # 5 TAOS PLEASURE
R 4 # 7 LIGHTLY SPICED

24/01/2009 EAGLE FARM
R 3 # 4 SHUFFLE THE CASH

24/01/2009 ASCOT
R 4 # 2 FRIAR'S TOUCH
R 4 # 7 PROART

These are from one of the RaceCensus systems (manually selected).
They are suggested bets only if under double figure odds.

This thread is a tad quiet, got back from dinner to find the sole Valley selection saluted at $8.60.

Nice.

GRERRRR! Chrome I was watching that, nooooo, I didn't back it! aaaaaa!

And Manila Heat.....and Taos Pleasure....

They passed in all areas except closing price

Here's the rundown for those under double figure odds:

TOOWOOMBA
R 6 # 1 UMHLANGA ROCKS
ROSEHILL
R 4 # 1 RAIN GAME
MORPHETTVILLE
R 5 # 6 ALCOPOP $3.30
EAGLE FARM
R 7 # 9 STATURE
R 7 #13 HEART
ASCOT
R 2 # 4 TEARINUPTHECOUNTRY
R 3 # 2 PROART $1.80

23/01/2009 MOONEE VALLEY
R 3 #10 FAMILY BLISS $8.60

24/01/2009 MORPHETTVILLE
R 1 # 3 HE'S HERE
R 3 # 4 MANILA HEAT $6.70
R 4 # 7 LIGHTLY SPICED

24/01/2009 EAGLE FARM
R 3 # 4 SHUFFLE THE CASH

24/01/2009 ASCOT
R 4 # 2 FRIAR'S TOUCH
R 4 # 7 PROART

14 selections
20.40 return
6.40 units profit
45.71% POT

Shaun as you quite rightly point out, the actual price cutoff is well under some of the starting prices for the racecensus system. I have posted selections and qualified them as under double figure odds cutoff, because I bet to prices. All horses that pass the rules regardless of price filter I back, but stake them to prices.

On one hand PROART cost me a bit, but on the other hand I got Taos Pleasure, Manila Heat and Family Bliss. For the sake of fairness I have only recorded the price cutoff first stated on the thread.

The reason I bet this way, is because sometimes horses drift or firm after the pool closes or too close to the jump and I miss something by a mere 50 cents. So now I bet them all to prices.

Here are some selections for Saturday.
These are the raw qualifiers for one of the RaceCensus systems.
They do not contain one of the filters.
How you use them is totally up to you, but it is suggested to only bet those under $10.00.
Personally I back them all and stake accordingly, I don't strictly stake them so there are miniscule amounts on longshots and massive amounts on very short prices. (otherwise a whole months profit could rely on a $1.10 shot!)

My personal strategy goes along the lines of:

>$10 1 unit bet
$5.00 to $10 2 units bet
evens to $5.00 6 units bet
Evens and under 9 units bet

This is based on TAB prices just before the jump.

I use Betfair to get better odds but the staking is based upon the tote price.

For disclosure purposes the recorded P&L will be based on any horse under $10 on Unitab flat staking.

MORPHETTVILLE
R 8 # 8 CENTURYTWENTYONE

FLEMINGTON
R 3 # 6 RED BUTTONS

DOOMBEN
R 2 # 3 AZZALAND
R 5 # 2 KINGS ARTIST
R 8 # 5 SIR TELES

ASCOT
R 2 # 1 CORPORATE SAM
R 2 # 2 LEGEND EXPRESS

MORPHETTVILLE
R 8 # 8 CENTURYTWENTYONE $4.90

FLEMINGTON
R 3 # 6 RED BUTTONS 2ND

DOOMBEN
R 2 # 3 AZZALAND $3.40
R 8 # 5 SIR TELES

ASCOT
R 2 # 1 CORPORATE SAM 2ND

Running balance
19 selections
28.70 return
9.70 units profit
51.05% POT

Another successful Saturday ;)

Rules as per usual.
Not sure which races will be called off because of heat, but if they run, here they are:

SATURDAY
07/02/2009 ROSEHILL
R 6 # 1 VISION AND POWER
07/02/2009 DOOMBEN
R 3 # 1 FULMONTI
R 8 # 1 CRAIGLEA WARRIOR

FRIDAY
06/02/2009 RANDWICK
R 2 # 7 SPENCE

Thanks Chrome .
That saved me a bit of working out.

Cheers.
darky

Results:

SATURDAY
07/02/2009 ROSEHILL
R 6 # 1 VISION AND POWER $3.00
07/02/2009 DOOMBEN
R 3 # 1 FULMONTI

Running balance
21 selections
31.70 return
10.70 units profit
50.95% POT

Again :D

Saturday's selections 14/2/2009

Same rules as always...

14/02/2009 RANDWICK
R 2 # 1 BUZZY HENRY
R 4 # 1 HADAAF

14/02/2009 EAGLE FARM
R 6 # 3 PELLTRO

14/02/2009 CHELTENHAM
R 5 # 1 SPIRIT OF CAPRI
R 8 #14 SPIRITED EXPRESS

Beware the ides of March - a trojan horse is coming ;)

just checking with your staking chrome, which way do you go if the price just before jump is right on one of the level changes.
If $5, do you go 2 or 6 units, similarly with evens, do you go with 6 or 9, 10 do you go 1 or 2?

Cheers
honkin

When they are on the cusp of a price for different staking, I make the decision on the direction of price movement.

For example 9 units are bet on even money shots and under.

If the horse is $2.10 and has firmed from $2.50 or $2.60, then it's 9 units.
If the horse is $2.10 and has drifted from $1.80, then I stake 6 units.

If I'm in doubt, I also look at any major movements from the next favoured horse.

I can't get it right all the time, but I figure I get close enough most of the time.

Thanks for Spirit Of Capri. W 7.10 P 2.70

Results of qualifiers...

14/02/2009 RANDWICK
R 4 # 1 HADAAF unplaced

14/02/2009 EAGLE FARM
R 6 # 3 PELLTRO unplaced

14/02/2009 CHELTENHAM
R 5 # 1 SPIRIT OF CAPRI WON $6.50

Running balance
24 selections
38.20 return
14.20 units profit
59.17% POT

Another great day ;)

Here they are for Saturday 21st February:

DOOMBEN
R 8 # 1 SIR TELES

CHELTENHAM
R 4 # 1 SPIRIT OF CAPRI (our little friend)

ASCOT
R 5 # 6 ANOTHER CLANGER
R 6 # 9 CALLER ONE





Remember, they only qualify if under double figure odds on Unitab before the jump, or stake them according to my plan.

cheers i hope i have a better day tomorrow

I just hope you get through life unscathed jayjones :o

We had to wait a while, but caller one made my day :D

Results

CHELTENHAM
R 4 # 1 SPIRIT OF CAPRI 3RD

ASCOT
R 5 # 6 ANOTHER CLANGER
R 6 # 9 CALLER ONE $7.40

Running balance
27 selections
45.60 return
18.60 units profit
68.89% POT

Another wee ripper :D

Here we go again:

27/02/2009 MOONEE VALLEY
R 6 # 8 RED BUTTONS

28/02/2009 EAGLE FARM
R 3 # 1 FORT 'N' WON
R 3 # 9 GRUNGLE
R 8 # 4 ENCOSTA TSZYU

28/02/2009 CAULFIELD
R 7 # 8 TIME MATTERS

28/02/2009 ASCOT
R 6 #12 STEEL THE EMPIRE

Red Buttons is scratched tonight, so list is as follows:

28/02/2009 EAGLE FARM
R 3 # 1 FORT 'N' WON
R 3 # 9 GRUNGLE
R 8 # 4 ENCOSTA TSZYU

28/02/2009 CAULFIELD
R 7 # 8 TIME MATTERS

28/02/2009 ASCOT
R 6 #12 STEEL THE EMPIRE

Just a heads up, not saying it will win, but $6.60 is available on Betfair for Time Matters, bookies have it at $5.50.

20% better, 15% after commission and we have an edge ;)

Geez you guys are quick - gooooone.

May the force be with us Chrome.

Cheers.
darky.

It is a period of punting war. Rebel punters, striking from a

hidden base, have won their first victory against the evil Bookie

Empire.

During the battle, Rebel punters managed to steal secret plans to the

Bookie's ultimate weapon, the Overround, an armored market percentage

with enough power to destroy an entire planet.

Pursued by the Bookie's sinister agents, RaceCensus races home

aboard his database, custodian of the stolen plans that can save his

people and restore freedom to the punters...

:D

Results

28/02/2009 EAGLE FARM
R 3 # 1 FORT 'N' WON 2ND
R 8 # 4 ENCOSTA TSZYU 3RD

28/02/2009 CAULFIELD
R 7 # 8 TIME MATTERS

Running balance
30 selections
45.60 return
15.60 units profit
52.00% POT

The first losing week so far this year, the Empire strikes back next weekend.