Two 1 rule systems that make a profit
 

Here are 2 one rule systems:

Barrier 20 or up before scratchings :

Selections : 377
Profit : 76.70
Place Profit : 78.60

Barrier 18 or up before scratchings :

Selections : 1600
Profit : $197.90
Place Profit : LOSS of $174.60


No Form, No Analysis, No Ratings .... just Value - 1600 selections is more than most people use to analyse most systems.



Good Luck.

Metro Only
>19 Barrier

783 Runners
41 Winners
Profit 115+
POT 14.71%
Av. Div $21.91
Max Div $112.60 :eek:

All Metro Winners 32,815

Barrier <11
Winners 27,806
85% of all Winners
$7.75 av Price of winner

Barrier >10
Winners 5,009
15% of all Winners
$11.48 av Price of winner


Races with <11 Runners
Races 16704
50.9% of all Races
$6.64 av Price of winner

Races with >10 Runners
Races 16,111
49.1% of all Races
$9.94 av Price of winner

now why am i not surprised!:)

im sure a similar 'system' could be achieved by selecting the nag that finished furthest from the winner last start...

Nope didn't work it showed a huge loss.

Glad to see your figures also show a profit. Its a much higher Max dividend if you bet on betfair !!!!.

Good Luck.

How about this one........

1. Finished worse than 7 lengths last start from winner
2. Career Place % >70%
3. > 2 Career Starts
4. Not First Up


Selections 644
Wins 73 S/R 11.4%
Plc 192 S/R 29.8%
WProfit +29 POT 4.6%
PProfit -90 LOT 13.9%
Av WIn Div 9.22
Av Plc Div 2.88
Min Win Div 1.6
Max Win Div 58.5

Add one onther rule and you get:


Selections 339
Wins 46 S/R 13.6%
Plc 123 S/R 36.28%
WProfit +131 POT 38.7%
PProfit -16 LOT 4.8%
Av WIn Div 10.2
Av Plc Div 2.6
Min Win Div 1.6
Max Win Div 58.5

not bad stix

or how abt last start winners unitab rated <94 such as nr6 bifarr $30+ today

Pass....... don't have unitab stats

Loss of 25%.

If three horses are allocated barriers 20 or greater, do you bet on all three?

in these cases judicious dutch betting is required!
/sarc

Yes level stakes on all horses. So If there were 24 barriers then you bet on the horses in barrier 20, 21, 22, 23 and 24.

There was a big winner last month with Trademark at $60 on the totes and $150 on betfair.

Good Luck

Interesting. What is the average run of outs?

Its huge .... Its a $1 method only.

You can go for over 100 outs in a row and then iht 3 big winners. Ive seen it go to 150 odd outs in a row but the average would be around 20-30.

Good Luck

Two 1 rule systems that make a profit
 

Hi Wesnip1

Intrigued by your results of following Barrier 18 or up before scratchings and the Barrier 20 and up before scratchings results , well done !

Could you please advise the time period you have arrived at the results?

As an aside I was following a barrier plan, no recent results, however these are the rules -

Barrier 13 and up after scratchings

Won last start this campaign

Melbourne only

Saturday only

Results 16 April 1988 to 26 December 2004

1112 Bets 124 Wins

In 1283.40 + 172.40 ( 15.51 % )

Regards,

Lemnok

Lay anything that is priced $14.00-15.00 Live Betfair market market

60 secs till jump time.

SRwin is around 5% win x 14.5 = 72.50 - 100 = 27.5% POT before com.

Bet .5% of bank

SwissAce!!! :eek:

The good old outside barrier in feature races with big fields!

How about:

1. Under $2 at the jump
2. ???!

any ideas?

i would stay away but thats just me

I was trawling through all posts and found this system. I wondered if there was any merit in this. Im not sure which time frame wesmip1 used but here is the results since August 2011.



Below are the results of your system. If you were testing Laying it is against the higher price available. if you test betting its agaisnt the lower available value on betfair.

There were 100159 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.There were 139 selections for the System
There were 110 races for the System
There were 13 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 9.35%
There were $175.3 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $36.3 or a percentage profit/loss of 26.12%

Test Another System

The Rules used were : barrier >= 20



Interesting that it shows a profit for only 1 filter.

UB
Barriers create agruments. They are supposed to be neutral but they are not. Bias comes in on different courses and different distances. Any barrier stats should only be for field size to be relevant. The inside barrier is always #1 the outside barrier always varies. Just today I was reading that the second last barrier is more profitable than the outside. Beton