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Mechanical Systems
An interesting comment on another thread whether a system can be profitable with mechanical rules only. After reading some forums getting a basic understanding of some statistics I have been manually testing the below theory with small POT on level stakes.
The rules are: 100 or 99 raters Unitab only (approx. 37% winners) First 3 in prepost only after scratchings (racingnpost) Max 2 horses per race. Level stakes. Gives a punter a quite few bets with steady stream of winners. As I've been doing this for a few weeks manually there isn't alot of data to confirm but it is showing positve POT at the moment after approx 300 bets. I've been testing everyday for interest. Cheers |
I would like someone with a database to test this, spounds interesting i don't think Racecenses has the unitab ratings in them.
Is the racingpost online or only paper? |
Sorry Shaun,
should have read racingnsports & online.. |
That 37% strike rate is that all selections, i was having a look at todays and in some races there is just 1 selection and in some there are 3 so the max is 2 selections or no race correct.
I was using the ************** pre post prices i guess most pre post prices are the same. |
37% is quoted in another thread, and as I read is based on all 100/99 raters. You will find a lot of races with more than 2 horses but the most you will get is 3 as the prepost rule will come into play and yes if more than 2 no bet.
Hope that clears things up. |
You could in fact have more than 3 as the form i used in a couple of races had 5 in the first 3 pre post, but saying that you would also need a lot of 100/99 in that race.
This all means nothing realy as if you can't get it to 2 selections no bet, this is a golden rule i think because a lot of the selections were favs but a few were not, this also produced a $15 winner at sandown. |
"You could in fact have more than 3 as the form i used in a couple of races had 5 in the first 3 pre post, but saying that you would also need a lot of 100/99 in that race."
Yes I agree and I actually include the first three plus any equals. Today's results: Unitab prices. 38 Bets 13 Winners 34% SR 14.70 Profit - 1 unit 39% POT There was a $15 winner. Hopefully there is something in this. If not at least you can have a fun day at the races and have a few winners.. |
Yes, I give the thumbs up on this one. I have been advocating for along time to START at the top Rater, (I guess this could extended to the second top rater i.e.99)
And THEN apply your filters, I think this has merit! |
Goldcoast,
I have checked yesterday's results using the Telegraph pre-post market, and I also deleted races that had 7 or less starters because I'm also interested in Place betting. There were 13 winners from 33 selections for a return of $54.30 using Unitab divvies. Without the $15.30 winner the method would have shown a POT of 21.8%. With Place betting there were 25 placegetters for a return of $43.20 which is a 75% strike rate and a POT of 30.9%. If anyone's interested I'll hopefully be able to list today's selections before midday. |
I fear the $15 winner will be more the exception than the rule given that was a compressed market in UniTAB ratings terms (5 points covering 10 of the 11 horse field). :(
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I've now looked at last Thursday's results.
There were 17 selections for 8 winners (the largest divvy was $8.00) for a return of $32.10, and 14 placegetters for a return of $21.40. |
Now you should delete the rules to stop it being sold by somebody from the gold coast :P
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Today's selections:
CANTERBURY Race 2 no.2 Race 3 no.5 Race 5 no.6 Race 6 no.2 BALLARAT Race 1 no.7 Rrace 2 no.10 Race 4 no.6 Race 7 no.3 Race 8 no.12 PORT LINCOLN Race 2 no.3 Race 4 no.7 race 6 no.8 Race 8 nos. 3 and 4 MUSWELLBROOK Race 1 no.7 Race 2 no.7 Race 3 no.3 Race 4 no.8 Race 5 no.10 race 8 no.5 Race 9 no.5 IPSWICH Race 2 no.1 Race 3 no.6 Race 4 no3 Race 5 nos. 3 and 6 Race 7 no.3 Race 8 nos. 2 and 4 29 selections. Here's hoping... |
I will list what i found and see the difference.
Canterbury R2-2 WEMBLEY R3-5 HEALY CREEK R5-6 PINS ON PARADE R6-2 ZAROCK Ballarat R1-7 SWEET SCIENCE R2-10 SPURTACULAR LASS R4-6 SEA CORAL R5-8 INSENSITIVE R6-1 TESTA ROCKETA -3 DANE KEEPER R7-3 FASTER THAN R8-12 LATITUDES Port Lincoln R2-3 TOOLORA STARR R4-7 THORTON R6-8 PLUVIUS R8-3 BLACK WHISKEY Muswellbrook R1-7 CARPE JUGULUM R2-7 TINTERN ABBEY R4-8 PINK TIARA R8-2 PLEASANT GUEST R9-5 WINNOW Ipswich R1-3 MISS STREETEM -4 NOTHIN LEICA RAPID R2-1 SNIPLAZ R3-6 SYDNEY OR THE BUSH R4-3 HEZA ROCKER R5-3 KALINGA LADY -6 GIDDAY GIDDAY R6-2 JERSEY JOE R7-3 QWERTY R8-2 LAURINEL PRINCESS |
So far i am behind a little over 10 units lets see how Canterbury treats us
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The ol' forum curse. Using racing n sports online prepost which is what I have done the testing on.
Today's Results Bets 30 Winners 6 S/R 20% Loss 9.80 LOT 33% and Cantebury couldn't help us... Biggest winner AR5 - 9 - $5.90 |
The good thing people will see the results and say it is a no go, mean while we will cleanup
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The biggest mistake I can see is taking a very short run of results and making an assumption.
E.G. just recently I suffered my biggest daily loss in 5 years. I have to tell you it ruffled me something terrible! I couldn't believe the 6 nags in question didn't run a place, followed by 4 losers from 5,... beyond belief. (7 ran 4th) but i stuck to the guns and recovered in 2 meetings, one with 5 straight placings. You have to realise that you need 1000 results plus to make an accurate assumption. |
Thats why i would like someone with access to pre post and unitab ratings to run a test.
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Well out of interest I went over yesterdays results using the WI6 free ratings. The results I got were:
Selections: 23 Win In: 22.9 Plc In 21.7 Although I'm sure that whatever method you use, its all going to be swings and roundabouts to a certain extent. |
what is WI6 free ratings not sure i have heared of them.
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WI6 is the winnerinsix ratings. Not sure if I can post a link, but if you google winnerinsix ratings you should have no issues finding them. Free ratings for every meeting everyday.
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Tahnks i found then.
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After yesterday's dismal results let's see how it goes today:
BATHURST R1 no.3 R2 no.7 R7 no.11 R8 no.4 NOWRA R2 no.9 R6 no.4 R7 no.13 R8 nos. 2 and 7 SALE R3 no.11 R4 no.8 R5 nos 1 and 2 R6 no.8 R7 no.7 R8 no.8 R9 no.1 DALBY R1 no.9 R4 no.5 R6 no.2 R7 no.4 |
Doing good today, here is something i noticed.
If you look at the radio tab selection and follow the same lines of only backing 99/100 raters you will see you get a lot of the same selections 70%-80% there are some differences but some of these are good and some are bad, compare yesterdays runners. |
Shaun,
Going a little further with your analysis, it would be interesting to see what stats there are for Radio TAB tips. What is the % winners in the first two tips only? Yesterday if you added the extra rule must be radio tab 1st or 2nd tip, then we only had a loss of 3 units. Maybe see if this rule adds to the system or not. Cheers |
My results today using racingnsports prepost
Today's Results Bets 31 Winners 10 S/R 32% Profit 13.20 units POT 43% Incl. $6.90, 8.10, 7.30 & 6.50 winners. Over the three days. +14.70 - 9.80 +13.20 --------- +18.10 using Unitab. NB. In my testing period, the Saturdays have been the worst performing days, thought I would let you know. |
Quote:
There were only 21 selections today |
Shaun,
Bets I found. Let me know which ones aren't right via racingnsports online.
Cheers |
My results are:
21 selections 7 winners Return of $27.20. Place 15 successes Return of $23.90. Goldcoast, I've also generally found with systems/neurals that Saturday racing can be very different to non-Saturday. I probably won't be looking at the system tomorrow. |
Sorry Goldcoast i was going i Michaels's selections i didn't have time to check it today
Not sure how he got 21 and you got 31 i might have to have a look tonight if i get time. |
Today's Selections - Unitab Codes
As with yesterday depending on what Prepost you use may change your selections. cr1 10 cr2 7 cr4 3 cr5 7 cr6 7 cr8 2 pr1 2 pr1 4 pr3 3 pr4 1 pr4 6 pr6 4 pr7 1 pr7 7 pr8 7 pr8 9 br4 5 br4 7 br6 2 br7 2 br7 3 br8 8 br8 15 vr1 3 vr2 2 vr3 6 vr4 10 vr5 11 vr6 2 vr7 6 vr8 1 zs1 4 zs2 2 zs4 11 zs5 8 zs6 1 zs9 4 zs10 8 mr1 1 mr1 3 mr2 4 mr3 12 mr4 2 mr4 3 mr5 7 mr6 11 mr7 2 mr7 4 mr8 4 mr9 2 mr9 13 qr1 3 qr2 10 qr3 6 qr5 6 qr6 1 qr7 5 ar1 1 ar3 1 ar4 4 ar5 2 ar6 7 ar7 3 ar8 2 ar9 2 nr1 11 nr2 6 nr3 1 nr3 11 nr4 3 nr5 7 nr6 1 nr8 1 nr8 9 ns1 4 ns2 6 ns3 9 ns5 2 ns6 10 ns7 1 ns8 9 sr1 6 sr2 6 sr3 6 sr4 8 sr5 3 sr6 10 sr7 6 sr7 9 sr8 3 er1 4 er2 6 er5 2 er7 2 |
Results for yesterday
Bets 94 Winners 21 S/R 22% Loss -23.2 LOT -25% As mentioned doesn't perform well on Saturday's. |
goldcoast, have looked at Metro only rather than all races ? just a thought.
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Has anybody had a chance to go over the results for the past few days?
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Thorns,
According to the Telagraph, on Sunday there were 44 selections for 13 winners returning $40.90 and 26 placegetters returning $42.90. I don't have any figures for Monday. Yesterday there were 16 selections for 5 winners giving a return of $12.90 and $13.90 on Place betting. |
If anyone's interested today's selections are:
CANTERBURY R4 no.4 R5 no.5 R6 no.5 BETFAIR PARK R2 no.3 R3 no.4 R5 nos. 1 and 11 R6 nos. 3 and 12 GERALDTON R1 no.6 R2 no.2 R4 no.11 R5 no.1 R6 no.1 R7 no.13 GOLD COAST R2 no.2 R3 no7 R4 no.7 R5 nos. 2 and 6 R7 nos. 2 and 7 R8 no.2 MURRAY BRIDGE R2 no.9 R5 no.4 When checking the selections for Sunday and yesterday I noticed that all selections resuming from a spell did not win. There is 1 today - Gold Coast R3 no.7. |
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