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Partypooper for the place
Just seeking a bit of advice old chum. I'm thinking as a sideline [especially the way I'm going at the moment... a fistful of place-getters I only backed for the win]. Today was typical. I had 4 bets for the win only on the last 4 Sale races and the results were [Vic TAB]:
r5 DARBYTON 1.70p r6 NOBLE LUSTRE 3.80p r7 [unplaced] r8 AMHERST 2.40p I think I should have a go at this place betting thingy. As you know [lol, lol] I'm not too bad at picking for the place only when I put my mind to it. I know you use a system approach and you know I use a handicapping approach. What I really need to know is the way to go re. prices? I have an IAS account, a Vic. TAB account and a Betfair account. I seldom use the betfair account as I get lousy prices for the $5 to $20 range I bet for the win. |
G'Day Crashy boy, !st thanks for reminding me about our little "competition" hahahah, NOT, though at least I conceded defeat in an acceptable way (even though you jagged it with longshots)
2nd, wasn't it some pitsburg someone or other that said pick em to win but back em for the place? well funny thing is how many of my place bets finish 4th, I kid you not it is beyond belief!!! 3rd,yes of course the DIVI, well I'm gonna upset you here cos I don't like "at least bets of 2 totes", ........ say you have $1.10c, $1.20c and $1.70c, they pay you $1.21c, nah,..... boollsheet. Presuming you are betting Metro, Sportsbet pay BEST OF 3 TOTES, has to be the way to go. But to get another edge, say you have a method that at least breaks even for the win, THEN you could use Sportingsbet Maxi Divi betting EW, the reasoning that you will be paid BEST OF 3 totes OR SP for the win portion (a lost leader so to speak) but this avails best of 3 totes OR 1/4 SP odds whichever is greater.for the place portion. Clarify that, you will be paid best of 3 totes OR 1/4 SP odds whichever is greater. eg totes, $1.30, $1.50, $1.60, SP $4.20c(the win) so you would be paid $1.80c for the place portion, a definite advantage. Mind you I'm told that there is other ways to bet for the place that are even more advantageous, but as yet I havent been able to explore. |
Thanks for the heads-up Party. I'll have a good look at Sportsbet [you don't work for them do you?] :-0
If you find out any better way to go, please let me know. Cheers, and I hope the 4th placegetters drop off. PS: That Pitsburg bloke, didn't he die broke? |
Hi Crash,
I know Betezy will pay you best of the 3 totes on all races, midweek included, but you must have a balance >=$1K in your account. |
I do have a betezy account [nothing in it], but I don't like the mob. They keep calling me up and even calling up my wife, Zoe [god knows how they got her mobile number] hassling for us to use the account. Min. $1000 doesn't surprise me.
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Not quite. http://www.oddjack.com/2005/the-leg...-phil-08-31.php |
post5,
Yeah crash, I phoned their contact number because they were "spruiking" a "Knightsbet" account(myself being a resident of Newcastle and willing to help the local team). I was confronted by some "drone" speaking in a monotone and providing no useful information. I highlighted to this character his lack of customer relations and unprofessional telephone manner. His reply was: "fair enough...!"... again in the same irritating monotone. I terminated that conversation and will have no more dealings with that mob! Cheers. |
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Stix, that's an interseting post mate, I keep getting calls from that mob, the 25% bonus is a definite enticement, but of course thats only a one off, what I'm interested in is that bit about best of 3 totes all races every day, are you sure that applies to PLACE ONLY BETS?
The $1000 min deposit is a smaller consideration as my daily bets would amount to more than that. But at the % that one can hope for you would have to be investing nearer $10,000-$20,000 a week minimum. (in my opinion) |
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I opened an account with them when they first started [and it was only best of 2 totes then] but when they stated ringing my wife on her mobile, that was it. I couldn't care what they are now offering, even if it was double everyone else's odds! |
& see how long they will give you the best of anything once you start winning on a regular basis..
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Post deleted. Unsubstantiated hearsay. Moderator 3.
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Over 95% of punters loose Stix and put more into their accounts than they take out. Show them the way to win [?]. Start a thread on how to do it maybe? |
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2. I couldn't possibly do that, I don't handicap. I analyse race statistics and apparently the systems designed from them....well they just can't work. 3. See point #2....be a waste of time. (not to mention I wouldn't have time to consistently post either :o) Maybe you can have a crack Crash? You would be more accomplished than me I think - as you have the runs on the board as a multiple competion winner. I still think the number one attribute to win is Discipline....over to you mate :D |
Well I wish someone wil reveal their secret... LOL.
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Post deleted. Sorry PeterPan, but we're not going there here. Potential legal issues involved. Moderator 3.
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Well maybe we could both chip in Stix and try to improve the lot of those punters always putting money into their accounts [me too now and then]. As a for straight tipping, you could put your winning tips up on Wednesdays and I could put mine up on Sat. or vis-a-vis [I'm not bothered], though I warn everyone, I'm no great shakes on tipping during the winter! Apart from that my general advice to any punter is to note these things: 1. Overall speed, sectional ability and the way races are run and the importance of jockies. 2. The importance of pace [overall time ability]. Slow horses rarely win races, so look out for easy wins in slow time. It shortens odds on these horses and mostly they haven't a hope in aaaa of winning again. 3. Fast early pace means fast overall time. Last sectionals with fast early pace is worth noting. Fast last sectionals with slow early pace is not worth noting at all. 4. First and foremost, is how the race will be run. Fast or slow pace. Profile each horse considering above and suitability in today's race. 5. Money management: How you put your money on. Most punter beat themselves. Bet for the win only [except Partypooper] for starters. Money on depends on price. The bigger the price, the smaller the bet [risk management]. The Market is mostly very efficient. Typically the most profitable hoses are $3 to $6.50. Any more than 4 to 8 bets on a typical Sat. is overbet cards. 6. Coping with runs of outs with nerves of steel. 7. Don't be afraid to bet 2 horses in a race if betting longer odds. 8. Exotics, forget them except maybe quins. 9. Midweeks opportunities: Unlike Saturdays, there are less genuine chances so there can be very good bets to be had. 9. Punters are mostly concerned 90% with their selections, yet only 10% with their betting approach. 10. Races never to bet on: Regardless of what anyone says, long term you will never come out in front in these races: 1000m races [one slip from the barriers and they have missed the boat], Fillies and Mares races, CUP races and races beyond 2200m., Jump races, Maidens and 2yr. old races, 3yr. old races before November. Never bet on these races as long term you will lose. If having a bet on them [and I often do, Bet $2-5 the win]. If anyone would like to dispute the lousy ability to win on these races, put your selections up for these races over a few months and I'll put up 20/1 saying you will lose on all of them over that period. These rules are fairly basic and within everyone of them is a lot of detail which requires lots of work to get your head around. With technology nowadays, the pro. punters and the basic winning punters who aren't pros. are still there, but most probably you won't see them at the track or hear of them. So who are they? Except for a few, they are unknown, but they are certainly there. And like Stix says, discipline is a key [not the only one] to winning. |
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My approach, as I've mentioned previously is to look at 3 and 4 yo males, in form and racing in the same class - and whilst 2 kg+ shouldn't matter to beast at over 500kg's.... well in my approach it does....and I leave Sydney alone, it's my abyss in any form of betting - system, form or dart board  |
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I agree Stix, especially about Sydney and over 2kg rise in weight! Also, discipline can't be taught. |
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did a quick run on the fav, carrying the same weight, down in weight or up by more than 2k Same S/R 31.58% LOT 10.8 Less w S/R 32.57% LOT 10.94 Up by more than 2k S/R 33.30% LOT 11.94 |
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Will run it for all winners, although I'm not inclined to follow mechanical "systems" or any system for that matter. here it is weight same winners S/R 10.37% LOT 32.62% weight less winners S/R 9.49% LOT 32.07% weight up +2Kg winners S/R 13.31% LOT 29.19% Should make you think! Good luck |
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I've over thought it already....... Have spend days on weights analysis with my systems.Another one for me is that I also don't give a toss about the jockey either.... |
Yeah, well you have to remember that the "Bookie" basically bets (gambles) on every horse in the race 24x7 but in reverse, i.e 80% or so.
Just like most of us having a punt of about $500 per year that our house wont be wiped off the face of the earth, or that it won't be burgled (for another $500) Truth is that EVEN if it was burgled the chances are that the claim would be less than $1000, (i.e.) carry off TV and Video etc) but we still go on having that bet............ just in case, so we are taking 2-1, for a 5 or 6-1 chance??? yes? That's why there are Bookies and insurance companies, (basically ,the same thing) And also that's why my username is "Partypooper" hahhaahah! Good luck guys! |
Crash, I've never come up with a place system that makes a decent long term profit. I think back in the days when systems were based on tipsters polls etc I came up with one that made about 5% profit, maybe 10. It had all sorts of restrictions like fields of 10 and less and was astonishinly boring as well as of questionable merit (I think I did a workout for 2 years). Maybe something like this might work now with the possibility of getting best tote. I just found place betting tedious. Anyway, good luck.
Xanadu, at least your phone friend at Betezy didn't say ''cool''. |
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