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Value Runners
I love this time of year. Lots of good horses going around at long prices. As I see it, here are a few that are overs:
SYDNEY R2 Underthetuscansun R4 Thunderbirdsarego, Ruud Roy R6 Fear No Other R7 Enzedex Eagle R8 Certain Magic, Ratatat Lass MELBOURNE R2 Leica Ding R3 Diamond Cowboy R4 My Girl Helen R5 Sandhill Prince R6 Mr Baritone, Gallica, Red Ruler R7 Flying Ruby R8 Young Centaur, Lady Avacan DOOMBEN R3 Shale Shaker R4 Spinelli R8 no 19 Spirito Volante ADELAIDE R5 Wingspiel, Red First R7 Stakhanovite Will keep a record of how these go (NSW TAB divs) until Sandown Cup Day which roundabout finishes the Spring Carnival. Bets = 22 Win Out = $22 Place Out = $22 |
Update
Saturday's Results
Outlay $23 win and $23 place Return Win = $5.3 (Red First paid $5.3) Place = $22.9 (Enzedex Eagle $9.3, Leica Ding $3.2, Flyting Ruby $3.7, Red First $2.4, Stakhanovite $4.3) Progressive: Win Bets 23 Outlay $23 Return $5.3 Progressive -$17.7 Place Bets 23 Outlay $23 Return $22.9 Progressive -$0.1 |
Saturday 22 August 2009
These look like value runners today:
ADELAIDE R7 Tostestaroan, Boogie On The Grass R8 Jutland DOOMBEN R2 Chabeli R4 Craiglea King, Some Journey, Shadow Buster R5 Mr Doyle R6 Viking Eagle R7 Thin & Crispy R8 Kings Artist, Kyros MELBOURNE R1 Orbitting Belle R2 Heartland R3 Grizz R4 Umanugget R5 Estee R6 Cats Fun, MacKnuckle, Tubular Bells R7 Braided General, Uncle Ivan R8 Reputable, Our Montague, Adaptor SYDNEY R2 Gunnadoit R3 Calm Seas, Babinda R5 Hello Pretty, Judged, Bryannos Gift, Yallinup R6 Zavite, GoKart R7 Emissary, Ivory Pegasus, Balagarney R8 Amaranth (Bets 38) |
Saturday's Results (22 August 2009)
Bets = 38
Winners: ADELAIDE R8 Jutland $14.5 BRISBANE R4 Shadow Buster $27.2 SYDNEY R7 Ivory Pegasus $13.0 OUTLAY = $38 RETURN = $54.7 Placings ADELAIDE R8 Jutland $3.2 BRISBANE R4 Shadow Buster $5.8 MELBOURNE R4 Umanugget $2.8 R5 Estee 3.1 SYDNEY R5 Bryanno's Gift $2.2 R7 Ivory Pegasus $3.3 OUTLAY = $38 RETURN = $20.4 PROGRESSIVE TOTALS WIN OUTLAY = $61 RETURN = $60 PLACE OUTLAY = $61 RETURN = $43.3 At the moment I've got a small amount on STAKHANOVITE to do big things in Spring. For those of you who are interested a STAKHANOVITE is someone who achieves out of the ordinary positive results (i.e. an over achiever). Stakhanov was a worker in Communist Russia who was put up as an example by Russian officials because of his outstanding results. Everyone was urged to work as hard as him (except, of course, the politicians). Stakhanov was the bench mark in excellence. Be wary of people who use words like 'excellence' often . For those of you who are of a literary bent, Boxer, the horse in ANIMAL FARM, was a bit like Stakhanov. His solution to problems was to say,'I will work harder.' And that's what he did. I'm not sure if Stakhanov ended up like poor Boxer though. |
nice work today mate
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Saturday 29 August 2009
These look like having a show at long odds today.
MELBOURNE R1 ReccoridoR 2 Sparkling Satine R3 Velocitea R4 Rock The Moment, Briefed R5 Ista Kareem, Figure Of Speech, Oak Heart R6 Sea Battle R7 Barwon Express R8 Gotta Keep Cool, Tinseltown, Windshear TAURANGA R6 Oliver Twist, Lord Carson R9 Waitui Court R10 He Kin Roc SYDNEY R1 She's A Rock Star R2 Equable R3 Absent Friends, Mewrovingian, Ruud Boy R4 Sinful Warrior, Donoso R5 Lady Game R6 King Sabeel, Sweepstaking R7 Indikator, Cuchurita HASTINGS R5 Tridane, Bonn's Girl R8 Rendzina R9 Vosne Romanee, Sterling Prince, Alagant Satin R10 Hodiggidy ADELAIDE R1 La Rampa R2 She's My Diva R5 Thornburst R6 Sandquil, Test The Scene R7 Edge Off, Mancity R8 Moggaden, Gift Of Knowledge R9 Rangeraja, Call Centre BRISBANE R1 Spirito Volante R4 Ima Cool Dude R5 One Eyed R6 Sir Kingsford R8 Justincase (52 bets) |
Saturday's Results (29 August 2009)
Bets = 52
WINNERS Melbourne R2 Sparkling Satine $16.2 R5 Figure Of Speech $74.9 SYDNEY R3 Absent Friends $18.0 ADELAIDE R5 Thornburst ($10.0) Scratched: Windshear $1.0 OUTLAY = $52 Return = $120.1 PLACINGS MELBOURNE R1 Recorrido $1.6 R2 Sparkling Satine $5.1 R3 Velocitea $1.9 R5 Figure Of Speech $15.2 TAURANGA R6 Lord Carson $2.0 SYDNEY R1 She's A Rock Star $3.5 R2 Equable $4.0 R3 Absent Friends $4.6 R4 Sinful Warrior $4.0 HASTINGS R9 Sterling Prince $12.1 R10 Hodiggidy $7.9 ADELAIDE R1 La Rampa $1.6 R5 Thornburst $3.3 R9 Call Centre $3.4 BRISBANE R5 One Eyed $5.1 Scratched: Windshear $1.0 OUTLAY = $52 Return = $76.3 Progressive WIN OUTLAY = $113 WIN RETURN = $180.1 (+ $67.1) Progressive PLACE OUTLAY = $113 PLACE RETURN = $119.6 (+ $6.6) |
Nice work today!
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Thanks Horse. Let's see how it pans out. My suspicion is that win bets will show a profit and place bets will break even or just teeter around win / lose a small amount. There will be long runs of outs but at the prices I'm betting I can afford to make mistakes more often than most.
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Sunday 30 August 2009
These may be value today:
SANDOWN R4 Sallum ($61 on IAS seems good value) R5 Yourtheman R6 Dandaad |
Update Sunday 30 August 2009
WIN BETS
OUTLAY = $116 RETURN = $180.1 PLACE BETS OUTLAY = $116 RETURN = $119.6 Yourtheman and Dandaad both ran 4th at big odds. Sallum was with them but faded at the end. |
Wednesday 2 September 2009
A few rough hopes at Balaklava today.
BALAKLAVA R7 Alessandro Volta, Stakhanovite, Akatak R8 Satara R9 Cuban Kid (5 bets) |
UPDATE
Wednesday 2 September 2009
PLACED Cuban Kid ($2.5) WIN OUTLAY $121 RETURN $180.1 PLACE OUTLAY $121 RETURN $122.1 Stakhanovite: The only poor run of his career. Was bustled from the wide barrier. Best when allowedto find his feet. None of the others impressed. Cuban Kid got a nice trail on the fence and finished OK. |
Saturday 5 September 2009
A few more chances at odds.
ELLERSLIE R2 Tiverton R7 Tui Kaha, Kaurinivia R10 Acid Jazz WANGANUI R3 Farma Ted R5 Tick Tock Turbo R8 Carrie Anne R10 Magic Crown, Waitara Toa SYDNEY R1 Grandma's Fault R2 Royal Causeway R3 Chopped R4 Spirilina, Druid R5 Nothin Like A Cat R6 Moody Avenue, Miss Darcey R7 Hurtle Myrtle MELBOURNE R1 Nun Faster, Tasmanian Tiger R2 Karoo, Danesearch, Red Colossus R3 Lady Avacan, Our Easy Ryder R4 Volcanic Star, All Cheval R5 Maunatrice R6 Extra Zero, Point Pain R7 MacOreilly R8 Gold Salute, Falaise R9 Unsung Heroine, Young Centaur BRISBANE R1 Telfire R3 King's Artist R5 Siong Tee R7 Plenty Of Practice, Miss Reed, Linear ADELAIDE Roll On Bert (41 bets) |
Update Saturday 5 September 2009
BETS = 41
OULAY = $41 win and $41 place WIN RETURN $26.4 WANGANUI R10 Waitara Toa $25.4 BRISBANE R1 Telfire $1.0 (late scratching) PLACE RETURN $42.2 WANGANUI R10 Waitara Toa $6.2 SYDNEY R7 Hurtle Myrtle $3.2 MELBOURNE R3 Lady Avacan $6.2 R8 Gold Salute $6.1 R9 Young Centaur $13.0 BRISBANE R1 Telfire $1.0 (late scratching) R7 Linear $2.6 ADELAIDE R8 Roll On Bert $3.1 PROGRESSIVE OUTLAY WIN = $162 RETURN = $206.5 OUTLAY PLACE = $162 RETURN = $164.3 |
Saturday 12 September 2009
These look like providing a bit of value today.
AWAPUNI R4 Bon Ton Roula R8 Kuda Mahal R9 Tridane R10 Stark Justice, Istidaadsue, Between Friends SYDNEY R1 King's Flyer R3 Cuchurita R4 My Good Fortune R5 Alverta R6 Common Objective R8 Ruud Roy, Mr Vincent MELBOURNE R1 Kinetics, Sir Excellence R2 Little Gem R3 Lady Lynette, Strudel R4 Willego, Pergola R5 Arch Symbol R6 Here De Angels R7 Baughurst, Magical Pearl, Majestical, Dandaad R8 Running Riot R9 Apprehend BRISBANE R2 Majorca R3 Attalus, Uncle Jan R5 Ken & Kim, In Shatin, Justin Case R6 Captain Clayton R7 Falco Star R8 One Eyed ADELAIDE R1 Dark Diva, Murphy's Cash R2 Sparkling Top, Frenzied Giggle, Strike Breaker R3 Cocky Chaff, Noticed R5 The Dream Team R7 Uma love R9 I'm Leaving (47 bets) |
Update Results For Saturday 12 September 2009
WIN BETS
OUTLAY = $47 RETURN = $55.5 WINNERS Pergola (M Valley R4) $20.6 Attalus (Brisbane R3) $34.9 PLACE BETS OUTLAY = $47 RETURN = $21.6 PLACINGS AWAPUNI R8 Kuda Mahal ($7.3) R10 Between Friends ($4.4) M VALLEY R4 Pergola $3.8 BRISBANE R3 Attalus ($6.1) PROGRESSIVE (after 209 bets) WIN OUTLAY = $209 RETURN = $262.0 (+$53.0) PLACE OUTLAY = $209 RETURN = $185.9 (-$23.1) |
Wednesday 16 September 2009
These might represent a bit of value today:
PAEROA R1 Quartze NEWCASTLE R3 Princip, Plandice R4 Sphene R5 Ballymorrough R7 Rockwood, Glowlamp R8 Rembetica SANDOWN R5 Wild One R6 Kingsford R7 Oak Heart, Volcanic Star, He's Something (13 Bets) |
Update Results Wednesday 16 September 2009
WIN & PLACE OUTLAYS = $13
WIN RETURN = nil PLACE RETURN = $19.30 PLACINGS PAEROA Quarze (2nd paying $7.8) NEWCASTLE Rembetica (2nd paying $4.10) SANDOWN Oak Heart (2nd paying $4.7) He's Something (3rd paying $2.7) PROGRESSIVE BETS 222 WIN & PLACE OUTLAYS $222 WIN RETURN = $262 PLACE RETURN = $205.2 |
Saturday 19 September 2009
These have some hope at odds today.
HASTINGS (NZ) R1 no 10 Tridane R2 no 13 Finale R6 no 11 Mercury Mistress R9 no8 Vosne Romanee no 13 Daffodil R10 no 1 Dare T'Live no 9 Musique DÓr RICCARTON R8 no 14 Madame Rio R10 no7 Vacant Lot no 15 Watch Da Cash SYDNEY R1 no 3 Fair Trial no 10 Tigeriffic R2 no 6 Hewentwoosh R3 no7 Let Me Adam R4 no3 So Anyway R5 no3 King Sabeel no5 Shadow Buster R6 no 10 Nothin'Leica Cat R7 no 4 Dane Julia no6 Cape Breton R8 no 12w Beyond Expectation no13 Clevergaze no 17 Druid MELBOURNE R1 no 7 Meet Me At Raffles R2 no 2 Clandon no8 Belscenica R3 no 3 Falaise no10 Barwon Express no14 Lord Pyrus R4 no 10 Fomalite no11 St Kiara no 12 Yuleluvit R5 no11 Briefed R6 no 4 Mr Baritone no 7 Turfontein R7 no10 Red Ruler R8 no 4 Prima Nova no 10 Jacqueline Rouge no 11 Delyara R9 no 5 Guyno no 16 Tinseltown BRISBANE R1 no 7 Estrellito no 9 Tora San R5 no 10 Rock Aria ADELAIDE R3 no 2 Rangeraja R4 no 6 Stakhanovite R5 no7 Edge Of Eternity R6 no 11 Powderhorn Bay R8 no 3 Two Sons R9 no 10 Hot Deal (51 bets) |
Update Saturday 19 September
Win & Place Bets = 51
Win & Place Outlays = $51 Win Return = $34.4 Place Return = $28.6 Winners HASTINGS Daffodil $7.0 SYDNEY Beyond Expectations $17.0 Clevergaze $1.0 (late scr) CAULFIELD Turfontein $9.4 Placings HASTINGS Daffodil $2.3 RICCARTON Vacant Lot $7.3 Watch Da Cash $8.3 SYDNEY Beyond Expectation $4.5 Clevergaze $1.0 (late scr) CAULFIELD Turfontein $2.7 ADELAIDE Stakhanovite $2.5 PROGRESSIVE WIN & PLACE BETS = 273 Outlays = $273 WIN RETURN = $296.4 (+$23.4) PLACE RETURN = $233.8 (- $39.2) |
Sunday 20 September 2009
These may be some value at Pukekohe (NZ) today:
R6 no 5 Beggar's Banquet no 8 All Pent Up no 13 At The Top R9 no 1 Calatrava no12 Flavio no13 Mostly no16 The Flaneur R10 no 8 Little Alfie Brown |
Update and MV Friday
Struth, I though with fields of about 18 in all races we'd get a big collect on Sunday. All the shorties won, however.
I think 'that place betting will struggle to break square on the sort of horse I'm suggesting here. Maybe those showing $7+ the place could return a profit. I'll see how things stand after 1 000 or so bets. This is definitely a set and forget selection method. If you tremble with anticipation at evewry bet you will be a mental wreck waiting for a winner here. This is a put on, listen as the mood takes you, method. Nevertheless, I have a steely resolve that this type of horse can return a long term profit. What we must remember, however, is that horseracing is an entertainment as well as, hopefully, a way of making a bit of money. UPDATE BETS = 281 OUTLAY WIN & PLACE = $281 RETURNS: WIN = $296.4 PLACE = $233.8 Friday 25 September 2009 MOONEE VALLEY R1 Dark Diva She Commands R2 Paper Prince R3 Tascher R4 Gotta Keep Cool R6 Danleigh Russetting Turffontein R7 My Girl Helen R8 The Foreman |
definitely agree with Danleigh in the manikato, fresh on a wet track seems to be his go. I don't mind Field Hunter in the last tonight, should be around $15 which could be a little value with his record at the track and on wet tracks.
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Update Friday 25 September 2009
Well done Horsewhispere. There was great depth in Danleigh's form. I was close to listing Alcopop too but that's the story of every punter's life.
BETS = 10 WIN & PLACE OUTLAYS = $10 WIN RETURN = $21.6 (Danleigh) PLACE RETURN = $16.9 (She Commands $8.5 Danleigh $4.6 My Girl Helen $3.8) PROGRESSIVE BETS = 291 OUTLAYS = $291 WIN RETURN = $318.0 PLACE RETURN = $250.7 |
Saturday 26 September 2009
A few to flick over to while watching the Grand Final today:
SYDNEY R1 no5 African Lion R2 no 4 El Sonador no5 Run For Naara R4 no 4 Tiber R5 no1 Purple R6 no8 Cape Breton R7 no11 Courtney R8 no8 Conquering Queen no9 Lady Game ELLERSLIE R7 no7 Tivoli no8 Cinnie R10 no16 Lady Of Petersburg BRISBANE R2 no11 Bitasilk R7 no8 Upilio R6 no 10 Aquaterra |
One at decent odds for you in sydney today is Motown Lady Race 3, last start last prep was beaten by a whisker in the magic millions by Phelan Ready who ran well last night. Was first up over 1350 in brisbane and won as it liked albeit in alot easier class than this. Might be good value in an open race.
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Sunday 27 September 2009
UPDATE
Saturday 26 September BETS = 15 OUTLAYS = $15 WIN RETURN = nil PLACE RETURN = $8.9 (Run For Naara $5.2, Aquaterra $3.7 PROGRESSIVE BETS = 306 OUTLAYS = $306 WIN RETURN = $318 PLACE RETURN = $259.6 SUJNDAY VALUE RUNNERS CAULFIELD R1 no5 Beyond Pardon R2 no 8 Calm Customer, no 16 Skylarking Miss R4 no 11 Sublimity R5 no 9 Take The Cash R6 no 11 It's The One R7 no 9 Produced R8 no 8 Completion, no 12 Volcanic Star |
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Saturday 3 October 2009
Lots of depth today means good prices on offer about some good gallopers.
SYDNEY R3 no7 Miss Cerinthe R5 no7 Hurtle Myrtle no11 Miss Shamardal R6 no11 Monaco Consul R7 no11 Tinseltown no15 Crossthestart no16 Cape Breton no17 Nothin'Leica Ca R9 no15 Seventh Rock no16 Zarvista R10 no 14 Glowlamp no15 Vintage Rock MELBOURNE R1 no8 Treasury Notes R3 no11 Crossley R5 no 10 Dane Julia no16 Jacqueline Rouge R7 no1 Viewed no5 Scenic Shot R8 no7 Falaise R9 no7 Ballack BRISBANE R3 no6 Scarbank R7 no10 Miss Reed no11 Lotza Action ADELAIDE R2 no12 Sunsetter R4 no 10 Rock'n Ready R6 no2 Glistening R7 no11 Dashing Doll HASTINGS (NZ) R4 no12 Colonel Danske R5 no11 Bayly Road R7 no6 The Twist R8 no12 Tridane R9 no16 Alagant Satin no2 Sir Slick (33 bets) |
UPDATES SUNDAY 27 September and Saturday 3 October 2009
SUNDAY OUTLAYS = $9
WIN RETURN = nil PLACE RETURN = $7.4 (Skylarking Miss) SATURDAY OUTLAYS = $33 WIN RETURN = $40.7 SYDNEY Monaco Consul $37.7 Cross The Start, Zarvista, Vintage Rock $1 each (all late scratchings) PLACE RETURN $35.6 SYDNEY R5 Hurtle Myrtle $2.7 R6Monaco Consul $7.0 R7, 8 and 9 Cross The Start, Zarvista and Vintage Rock $1 each (late scratchings) MELBOURNE R5 Dane Julia $7.1 R7 Scenic Shot $8.6 ADELAIDE R7 Dashing Doll $7.1 PROGRESSIVE OUTLAYS = $348 WIN RETURN = $358.7 PLACE RETURN = $302.6 |
Saturday 10 October 2009
I fancy these a little at the lengthy odds.
MATAMATA R7 no 12 Kudamahal SYDNEY R1 no9 Chi Comanda R3 no6 Laletta R5 no11 Fullafibz R7 no15 Douraya no17 Rauparic R8 no18 Third Estate no19 Halfametreshort no20 Validated CAULFIELD R1 no9 Dempsey R3 no16 Hear No Tears R4 no6 Happy Glen R8 no 8 Figure Of Speech no10 Mr Tipsy no11 Hoorang no 14 Lady Avacan R9 no 12 Run Roxy Run BRISBANE R1 no8 Raksasa R2 no13 Dusty's Felt R3 no13 Queen Thyra R4 no10 Mundi Gully R8 no7 Meet George no8 Jacaranda Charm ADELAIDE R2 no5Rangeraja no7 Yesquire R5 no15 Cold Sober R6 no13 Glam Girl R7 no 16 Mon Fils (28 bets) |
OOPS
Oops! Left out Caulfield R6 no 12 Stickpin. (29 bets)
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R3 DONALD RATTLE MY CAGE $20
last raced MV on a saturday Rattle My Cage was held up when unable to improve its position from the 400m until the winning post.(stuck behind a wall of horses which were 5 deep) |
Wednesday 14 October 2009
These have some hope I think:
MURRAY BRIDGE R7 no7 Lord LÁnno no18 Star Of The Stalls CAULFIELD R6 no9 Fomalite R8 no19 Pento Diablo no20 Sayah |
UPDATE
Saturday 10 October 2009
BETS = 29 WIN RETURN = nil PLACE RETURN = $22.6 Place divs: MATAMATA Kudamahal $3.5 SYDNEY Third Estate $3.9 BRISBANE Mundi Gully $4.9 ADELAIDE Mon Fils $9.3 Wednesday 14 October Bets = 5 WIN RETURN = nil PLACE RETURN = $6.5 Sayah (scratching $1.0) Pento Diabolo $5.5 PROGRESSIVE BETS = 382 OUTLAYS = $382 WIN RETURN = $358.7 PLACE RETURN = $331.7 Pento Diabolo would've kicked us in front today but missed by a nose. Not many rough results so far this spring. Oh, yes - a simple system. Look at the trainers'list. Anything trained by Bart that's 20/1 or better is worth a try (maybe a roving banker for 1% or something like that). Same could be applied to other up and coming trainers like Mick Kent. These quality trainers don't keep slouches in their stables and are talented enough to be able to be choosy. Gai is a great trainer but her horses are always kept safe, especially in the small fields dished up every week in Sydney. |
Saturday 17 October 2009
These might do something todayat odds:
WANGANUI R5 no5 Torpedo CAULFIELD R3 no7 Gold Portrait R6 no9 Velocitea no12 Glowlamp R8 no12 Harris Tweed no16 Red Lord RANDWICK R4 no10 Mont Calieri no11 All Legal R7 no10 No Reins R8 no4 Mr Hornblower no12 Lyncaen Academy BRISBANE R1 no3 Carbon Art R4 no9 Cuban Dancer R5 no8 Lennon R6 no12 Power Of George R7 no11 My First Lady R8 no10 What Happened Henry ADELAIDE R5 no6 The Gem (18 bets) |
UPDATE
Results & Update For Saturday 17 October 2009
BETS = 18 OUTLAYS $18 WIN RETURN = $35.1 (All Legal) PLACE RETURN = $23.8 (Glowlamp $11.4, All Legal $7.6, Torpedo $4.8) PROGRESSIVE BETS = 400 OUTLAYS = $400 WIN RETURN = $393.8 PLACE RETURN = $355.5 GEELONG CUP Leica Ding is a typical improving type with a real chance in the Melbourne Cup. Hard to rate alongside Viewed who was magnificent on Saturday though. |
Saturday 24 October 2009 (Cox Plate Day)
Some of these could surprise today:
ELLERSLIE R5 no2 King's Win no12 Gallant R9 no13 Sanuye R10 no11 Le Grande MELBOURNE R6 no6 Falaise R7 no7 Figure Of Speech no10 Oak Heart R8 no 4 Nom Du Jeu no6 Black Piranha R9 no7 Jacqueline Rouge SYDNEY R2 no6 Fabella R4 no17 Gold Mount R8 no8 Parfumier BRISBANE R3 no 10 Sunday Belle R5 no6 Degenda R6 no10 Charter Boat ADELAIDE R3 no9 Exalted Lady R4 no9 Sovereign Conquest no10 Rolling High R6 no11 Make Me Cry R8 no8 Cavalry Black PERTH R6 no9 Rocking The Blues no16 The Package (23 bets) |
Saturday 31 October 2009
Some of these may surprise today:
FLEMINGTON R1 no 7 Ruse De Guerre no9 Hotham Heights R2 no13 Cape Breton R3 no5 Fomalite R5 no6 Sir Slick no9 Mandela R7 no10 Bella Veloz no13 Glowlamp R8 no 13 Mr Slick R9 no 3 Chasm no 11 Occidentalis ROSEHILL R7 no 8 Trescorpione DOOMBEN R7 no9 Worth Doing R8 no 7 Jacaranda Charm no 19 Blazing Hearts (15 bets) |
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