When is a system?
 

How long does it take to prove a system?
Is it a certain number of meetings or do you need to use a time frame?
Does it need to run a full year or can it be judge on consistency over a shorter term?
Discuss.

Many will dispute this, but a few weeks is all it takes.

Disclaimer:
you have to differentiate when and where you are betting.
Your system may (probably will not) perform the same in Metro races as in country or prov. races.

Forget about the "thousand" races needed to prove etc. if you don't produce profit short term, there is no reason you will be in the long term.
Big bank only means you will lose a lot more but it takes longer!!!

Day to day yes, you can be up and down, but if you are losing all week, barring unforeseen conditions circumstances, then my friend the system is a crock.

Good luck

I think it's a difficult question to answer without knowing the full [or at least more details of your system] eg is it purely form based...or it mathematical...a combination of both...or something else I haven't considered.

My feeling is that anything with a heavy form component really needs a full year to expose you to all elements of racing....large fields, small fields, fresh horses, sour horses, wet tracks, dry tracks, good races, bad races, top jocks, other jocks, big trainers, small trainers etc etc

Mathmatical or statistically based methods...I'd still be saying 3 - 6 months minimum...ideas/systems/plans are all good for profit when you look at the early results but it's the longterm that gradually finds you out.

This can be a tricky question.

I feel one needs a min of 3 lots of 150 races.

This will give us a rough picture if the system has any legs or not.

If one batch produces a profit & the other 2 batches brake approx even , you may have a possible system.

I have invented plans based on 3 years stats & in the 4th year , it fails to show a profit - frustrating stuff.

I feel one should try for a consistant 22%+ SR , next ,try & get the best possible price , usually Betfair.

At the end of the day , its the terrible prices one accepts from the TABs that eventually kills most systems off, while trying to recover past losses.

Cheers.

The best systems take about an instant to prove what they really are "a dog taking you for a walk to ATM", dismiss them all and move on to start using the brain.

I did write here a while back, you need about $1000 a month to actually " make a living" i have since been corrected, i am told its around 1200. ( in my own defence, i did set this 1K figure 5 - 10 years ago )

THINK. 25% strike rate, 25% pto, betting saturdays. how many bets you need to have? and what kind of a bank? what prices, and what about the run of outs?..just do the math, backward enginer just the logistics...when you figure your safe realistic position, youll be better off in real estate. :)

Also as said, a system with 10 rules, if the 10 criteria are met, then it has 100% chance. BUT if it start form barrier 11 not 10, or its 22 days off, not 21..then in chance of winning is ZERO.

forget about anything else common sence should click in at some point.

HEY lets go sci-fi, even with tomorrows newspaper, system followers would still lose if the winners didn't fit the sytem rules.

Recently i went to my local club, the week the NSW tab was having probs and i also had some renovations done to the home, as i was recently getting hammered by claims that i only win because i get inside info and , most now know how i make a living, Tak , from sat to sat (excluding wednesday ) i gave out 25 selections, 17 won, 23 placed...a win 1$ returned just over 38$...lowest winner paid 1.30, highest $3.80.

On the folowing Sunday, i found out..in the whole club, basicly only 3 people followed near all the selections, 1 guy whos sits most afternoons and consumes about half doz beers and has no idea..about anything(actually thought of as not being too bright)...the young guy who was running the tab (whos says he usually doesnt bet) and the manager of the club .....not sure of the factual amounts of all..but the manager said he bet $10 on each and finished with a little over a $100 profit. and wished the tab worked on its website every week.
from many others i heard , i was broke by that race, i dont back horses 1st up , they were to short ...etc etc.

Again, some people could not win, even with tomorrows newpaper.
and as Bozo the canabal said, "this clown really does taste funny."

E. O.O ..today; Dr Plumb did it with whip at the racetrack....absol' fantatical.

I'd be more conservative.
I've seen one lot of 1000 selections return a lot different on the next 1000 selections, and these were fairly short prices.
But the biggest faux pas is to say "I need 1000 races"
Then filter down to 200 and be confident of future returns.
I already said "I need 1000 races", and that shouldn't change after filters.

Here's one approach.

Target to win 1.5% a day . (No more than this.)
x 7 days a week
= 10.5% a week

Using $10,000 bank
= $1050 a week.

Your now a professional punter

And if you like , one could offer to pay tax on this & if accepted, claim all expenses accordingly.

Hey Bhagwan
 

It's a long way from being proven and I'm not sure that I want to let the tax man in on it but, what did you mean by ' if accepted '? Is it difficult to pay tax as a professional punter? Do they have a criteria by which they classify you or is there a $ figure?

BUT why not target 2% then multiply by 7 , or 3%..or etc etc
and have a 20K bank and become richie rich.
and this is great if you have a 100% strike rate

wow ..all this time, i have been programming and studiing the horses form.
and i could be just writing maths. and look, any moment now it pays for itself.

With the maths being that easy, the horses shoudn't be a problem at all
its annoying that how many selections, winners and strike rate come into it.
and of course, the bank does have to be real. as do the bets.
try targeting any percent mechanically in reality....and of course after a few losing bets, I am now chasing my losses, not profits.
Like the 'good times' of easy credit rip offs, you are flat out paying the loan (losses) let alone the principle.

300 races a week, $1 dollar a race = 1200 a month, its as easy as kissing grandma....and even easier for me to type here.

this is again of course is part of SYSTEM THEORY (nothing more) that works so well on past results and on paper ......but just doesnt even have 1 wing, let alone fly irl.
Hey! i have a staking plan to really maximize profits, double the stake on every 5th bet, coz this is how they fell last year. and look on paper it works.

whether you target 1%, 10% or 69%...there are losses and runs of outs.

why not aim, to make just 1 cent the 1st day, and double it till you become a millionaire , 1,2,4,8,16,32,64,$1.28 ...i think i will run out of yellow brick road first..because i am picking up the 'yellow' bricks and selling them to system punters to pay the rent each month.

E. i just re-read my post. maybe i am a bit harsh, but with much toungue in cheek,.... systems can be fun, specially in syndicates - but never long term profitable.

If I may Maurice.....

So how do you select your bets? (Form analysis? How do you select which races to bet on, or how do you disregard races to bet on?)

On average how many bets would you have a day or week (or month if you prefer)?

Do you bet regardless of price? (Do you bet level stakes only?)

Just curious.......thanks in advance.

Hi Maurice,
I'm going to do you a big favour , my friend.

I'm going to come over there & give you a jolly good slapping for being silly.
You can thank me later.

You can & will be able to make 1.5% a day.
If not, take up bricklaying, its easier

Here is a method that will do the job.

RULES
Lay a tipsters top selection for race one , only, for all venues.

Price range 3.50-5.90

Bet 1.5% of bank level stakes.

Stop once we are in front by 1.5% or have broke even on the day after recovering from a loss.

Cheers.

Hi Gnarkly,

The Govt like the idea of punters paying TAX

The Govt does not like the idea of punters claiming expenses as well as the possibility of any losses.

Here is an article about Tax on professional gamblers.

http://www.murdoch.edu.au/elaw/issues/v2n2/kee222.html

With out being at all overly insulting, i am not sure i even understand the rules.
But personally, even with that...no hypertheticals... i wouldnt mind seeing the action even a single month ......with real money ,real bets and a real 1K profit.

just to think, a better favour would be to
actually do a hyperthetical, so i can grasp the rules

RULES
1) Lay a tipsters top selection for race one , only, for all venues.
what tipster?,systems do not differ we all have to use the same mechanicly) maybe we are on a staking plan here..ok thats even better, they can work..until....ok tak.we bet just the top selection to lose the 1st race of the day ..but only 'only' the 1st race? .why only? how do we re-coup?..and at all venues is this the same tipster?.of course, i'm guessing not,...
Price range 3.50-5.90
i take this to be the win price,np? what service, bfair? what if the price isnt in the range ,what do we do? what time are we looking at the odds?...do the odds ever vary? ..not sure here...i dont bet with corprates anymore so i am lacking what services they all offer now. and have never layed directly., (indirectly was that the 'home booky")
Bet 1.5% of bank level stakes.
10,000 bank ok $150..got that one. :)
Stop once we are in front by 1.5% or have broke even on the day after recovering from a loss.
( so basicly unless we get the 1st winner up, we chase till we are back where we started?)..couldnt be, could it?..broke even after a loss?
do we keep meetings seperate? if not what is there is a delay and the race jumps directly after the previous?..plenty of things that make this not so systematic .....but still .......

so wading in relentlessly here, without really understanding.. i think basicly we are really on a staking plan chasing a continious high strike rate of losing 1st selections of any tipster??...If we are laying , what are we looking at if the 'tipster' selects the 1st 4 winners?..
even if i have completely misunderstood, when laying and kick chasing, what if someone picks the card?..with only 8 races 1200 (or 7 straight losing bets, are we down 1050)?


just in case it is a high strike rate chaser.....a note for other readers
one of the big systems of the past was kick and chase losses , box 1 at the dogs..rarely lost with a large bank..BUT but but when you lost, you never went back to it....i think it was Richmond who had 38 straight box 1 losers, 14 straight unplaced....same as place betting methods...these were all nice little earners specially while researching ) until your putting on 1000 to get back 100..then it slipped to 1.04., while being behind. and chasing yesterdays rent.and then its checked at the 1st turn......

I'll assume it was a gloss over.........?? :rolleyes:

Bhagwan,
Love a challenge, so with your blessing did a 1.5% take home for
the month of sept, refer below attachment.

Been for my run this morning..ok ok ok... brisk walk.
i am still not sure where the tipster comes into it? and what tipster?

why not study 'select' yourself weak favs, or 2nd favs
150 to 30? i think it would be about...still not sure exactly
but looks like odds on betting,

if thats about it, its not a SYSTEM, just a kick and chase staking method.

Paper profiteers.always dream of having 10K,....i will take a small profit each day and the run of outs (or maybe ins in this case) will never trouble my bank..until they actually do it. Dom' the great has been doing 8% profit for decades..backong 4 or 5,6 runners in selected races.....and it aint easy. takes time and study.
OR alternative
maybe its 10k at 1.08 on Serina, followed by 10K on Venus at 1.12, Kuznetsova at 1.10, Bartoli at 1.15 etc etc and in no time that 10K is now 15K (notice i didnt use Maria, we arent talking at the moment)...
Until 10k on serina and she does place a ball in an orifice, disquall'ed..do not worry the 5K on Jankavik start the road back.oh no shes called for the trainer again....gone

taking an old kick and chase staking method , slapping a new label on it...in this case lay betting..is much the same as Isnack2.0... works well on paper.
and is not a system.

and i am still wondering why we need a tipster at all for this..not to assume or insult. :)

Oh a lot of punters do have, or at a stretch can organize $10k for a system bank ... I think it's called a credit card or a home (if they still have one) equity loan :-)

Yeah, the average punter who can wrangle $500 without the missus knowing, wouldn't have the paitence to try an return 1.5% (<$10) a day.....the big paying winner looms larger in their eyes, so after 3 weeks at giving it a go, will lash out and have $250 e/way on Profound Beauty in the MC - with all in betting...and have it scratched

And nah, it's not call a 'loss-chasing' system Maurice. I prefer JFC's euphemism: "non-reducing" !

Thanks for that Bhagwan.
Hey Maurice,
You sound like a gambling purist.
How about offering something constructive instead of just bagging everyone?
Not meaning to assume or insult of course.

Actually not bagging anyone, only giving my opinion on systems in general and each interest as it presents....there is nothing personal in this, sorry to anyone that can't seperate that.
maybe , or not..I am being contstructive, being realistic and not promoting systematic betting. but i am open to read other ideas and comment on them.......as in a forum, or interactive blog.

System :we all follow the rules to the letter, and we all back the same horse(s).
staking methods aren't actually systems. although haggling over terms isnt really important.

Hi crash.
instant bank or a dead relative, old aunt so and so
now can try the old kick and chase....
usually leaves the punter looking for a sleeping tablets , a pillow and uncle so and so. ;)

E. I think i will stick to the ABBA forum, where i dispute that dancing queen was NOT the best song and that SOS is....
you disagree? i am really and total personally offended ......grrr i can hear the drums Fernando.

Hey Maurice,
Fair enough, you're entitled to an opinion.
If you're not a fan of systems how do you select your horses?

Think I asked that question as well....twice.

There are other ways to pick winners besides dumb-waiter systems. Personally I've switched to the 'throwing of the stones' method recently after a disastrous turn of events with the Tarot cards!

That is true crash, I prefer form.
These systems are all new to me.
Just trying to get some information.
I figured this might have been a good place to start.

Maurice I have to agree with you re. rigid "systems".

I have studied many, developed by myself and others, and found that
while your selection may qualify according to your rules, the upcoming race will be completely different than the last race your selection contested.
How do you reconcile that?

I think punters may have a better chance selecting the numbers in a lottery that way.

'---------
However when it comes to Dancing Queen, mate, you have a lot of nerve to speak of it like that! LOL.

Bit off topic and irrelevant, I know, sorry mods.

Personal computerized hcp'ing, to sort the wheat from the chaff, then good old fashioned form study (although done also on computer), then betting via a personal interface.

choosing the horses is 1/3, the right way to bet is another 1/3 and then luck is the other.....hopefully you can be right 2/3 ;)

I bet all type sdepending on the race and situation in question
i like exotics ...quaddies,tri's ffours, etc etc..BUT also even win bet specials

as for best bets ...and why not, heres today
13:35-BAR02 16 D 15 24 (08 ZA BULLET 3.7 20 B MELHAM 1|MR 02 08
13:52-CAN02 19 H 6 0 (01 MERENSKY REEF 2.4 49 N RAWILLER 5|SR 02 01
14:10-BAR03 12 D 15 13 (15 RED PIXIE 3.4 24 C SYMONS 4|MR 03 15
15:40-CAN05 12 H 6 0 (08 COUNTRY CLUB 3.0 32 K MCEVOY 3|SR 05 08
16:00-BAR06 16 D 11 0 (03 EXCELLTASTIC 3.0 17 N HALL 16|MR 06 03
16:33-BAT05 13 D 6 0 (02 SLICK SNIPER 2.4 15 G BUCKLEY 19|CR 05 02
17:08-DOO06 14 G 10 0 (03 HEARTY LAUGHTER 3.9 16 M HELLYER 18|BR 06 03

that was a cut a paste so i hope it will come out fine... excelltastic actually wasnt a selection in the end due to track change and red pixie was late scr

and so far this week
14:05-BAL02 13 D 12 14 (02 REBELS 2.9 32 M DOLENDO 3|CR 02 02 2.0 1/2
14:40-BAL03 10 D 13 44 (12 EDITAVE 2.6 25 D TANTI 25|CR 03 12 2.9 2/5
15:45-MOP05 20 G 9 0 (01 MOGGADEN 2.9 21 R PLUMB 20|AR 05 01 5.9 3/11
15:50-BAL05 10 D 10 0 (05 VIVAHEART 2.8 19 L CHESHIRE 10|CR 05 05 2nd 4/11 3/4
-
13:45-TOW01 14 G 11 3 (09 SALCANRO 3.0 24 L DILLON 10|BR 01 09 Unp 5/11
14:55-TOW03 12 G 11 0 (02 REVE D'OR 3.0 15 L DILLON 17|BR 03 02 2.9 6/14
16:10-TOW05 12 G 12 0 (01 MR HEARTBREAKER 3.4 27 A BUTLER 17|BR 05 01 4.0 7/18 5/7

mmmmm something constructive for Gnarkley.
. dont chase losses ...GA and the flop houses of railway districts of capital cities are full of people who didnt know when to stop.
. dont be mechanical .do you own work. study form
. if you have the cash , but a database..find out what makes racing tick.
. have fun with it, once its painful..quit..(even for a day)
. read books on hcp'ing


oh and dont be afraid of singing along with Abba :) money money money

Also Gnarkley, don't tell people that you are a system bettor and you win, over a long period of time.They will howl you down, ridicule you, eventually if you keep espousing the word of the devil, they will burn you at the stake.

But always remember, there is more than one way to skin a cat.

Top Rank,
Thanks for the warning.

Maurice,
Thankyou.
Your form of extreme constructivism is music to my ears, unlike S.O.S. I'm afraid.

On now its all just too silly.. :D
but who would you buy a used car from...a satanist, an Abba fan or someone who claims to make a living using a system..

the only difference between someone who themselves searches for the winning system and someone who is trying to sell you a winning system..(or used car)
is that you have sold yourself the lemon and then picked your own pocket and are happy about it all...but good luck to you.
its been fun again..dont miss me ... cya. :)

Maurice my friend,
You sound totally confused about the rules.

I was assuming every one had a basic understanding of the fundamentals & languaging used in punting.


As mentioned , its level stakes betting, no progressions .
Keep in mind the price limitations.

Make bets close to jump time, this is when the lay prices are usually better in this price range , say 30 secs till jump.

Which tipster was another question.
I was assuming that everyone would understand the term "target a tipsters top selection."
It can be any tipster & there are millions of them ,so take your pick.
I don't see why it has to be the same tipster for everyone.
If one wishes to be spoon fed a tipster , just use RadioTAB top selection which is available online .

Target race one only.
Race one usually has low paying horses in the top three in the market.
It also keeps the volumn of bets down , which can be seem as important for lay betting.

Price range 3.50-5.90 lay price on Betfair otherwise , no bet that race.
You questioned that the rules did not stipulate who to Lay bet with.
I assumed everyone knows that Betfair are the only ones offering a lay betting service. Not TABs , not bookmakers.

The objective is to make 1.5% profit , betting 1.5% of bank , for each day.

One can modify the approach to suit.

The idea is to hit 1.5% lay betting 1.5% level stakes.

I was just offering just one simple approach that everyone could understand,
using a tipster to do our thinking.


Seeing that you felt bummed out ,trying to make a quid on the punt , and had run out of ideas on how to approach the exercise.
We all go through that at some stage.

The concept can work.

Its only the human element that will stop it being successful.

Cheers.

Well done Place2Win.

You are welcome
I also did a foray for aug and July although I only
did it on paper this time (time constraints)
August $1300 Profit
July ($332) Loss
All was done 'raw' as per your details
September had an unbroken run of Fifteen
between 6th/21st then had 3 minus $400+ in
6 days
August started with an unbroken run of 9 days
then four minus days in12 of $400+ before finishing
with 6 unbroken days.
July was a mix -$500+ on day 2 then 8 unbroken before
7 minus $400 days in next 14 days before a final rally unbroken
of 7 days but unfortunately not enough to put it in the black
All in all it looks promising, there may be room for a filter or two?
Will do a couple of random months when I get some more time.
May have something of interest for you soon, but will need your
email addy. Will let you Know when it is ready.
Regards
Shalor

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Hey Maurice,
You should type slower, you're hard to follow at times.
If a system has no human element, am I to assume ( I know, a dangerous thing
) that any betting regime that takes into account the track and weather conditions, non-human elements, is not a system either.

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Blimey this takes me back a few propunter forum years when all the BSA and "comets" were telling the new chum all you needed was a $10,000 bank to make $1000 a week.
Funny but you dont hear from them these days.
Cheers
darky