Does everyone have an opinion?
 

I'm wondering what a good, win strike rate is for Sat. metro racing and what sort of percent on turnover would count as viable?

stirke rate depends on your average winner divvie.
No point in having a 40% s/r if your av div is $2. Something around the 30% mark is good for av div of $4.50-$5.00,

I'd say it depends on your personality, most people couldn't handle backing 10% winners to make a profit, as there would be constant long runs of outs to kill the confidence.

Two Shoes

if i had a 10% s/r i would give up the punt.

I was working on the theory that if you pick enough winners the profits will take care of themselves.

I've been looking at horses lately, who have won all their races e.g. 3 out of 3 and have won at the track and distance.

The prices have been slim but a steady stream of winners and since I've been following it, it is in profit (Saturdays only)

You get some surprising odds, for instance, 3 weeks ago Cornwall Park who had won 3 out of 3, won track and distance and had top prizemoney ranking, paid $3.

I couldn't believe it!

There's a horse in WA called HAY LIST who is an absolute money spinner. I've backed him the last 4 starts at short odds but he keeps producing the goods!

I think the addage, odds on look on is a falicy if your horse is the superstar of the race.

For instance, I had a decent bet on Definitely Ready yesterday, cause I honestly though it would have to lose a leg to go down. It ran twice round the track and still came home with the goods! Only paid $1.75 on Betfair but I thought that was money for Jam.

If you start with horses with a strike rate of 40% plus, who've won track and distance and are at least 1st or second in the average prizemoney earnings (check the middle of the sportsman) you'll do ok.

An easy way to check value is if the horse has won say 40% of its races.
Divide 100 by 40 = 2.5

Therefore $2.5 will be break even and you look for any price above that to make a profit long term.

There are a million other factors to could add to make a price, but if your horse has:

The best strike rate in the race
Top prizemoney
Won t/d
Won in the conditions
In form (won at least one of it's last 2 starts - or came within a length but was checked etc.)

Then you're on a decent bet. Check the value before investing and you'll do ok.

It takes patience, something that many of us punters struggle with and I admit myself, it's where my horse investments fall down.

Have the patience to find a good horse at the right price and you'll do alright Gnarkley. BEST OF LUCK and happy punting!!

Two Shoes

Hi Twoshoes,
That is an excellent post, definately something I'm interested in.
Thanks for posting.

Cheers,
Mike.

Thanks Twoshoes,
That is some of the most helpful advice I've received since I started asking questions.
At the moment in Melbourne on Saturdays I have a 60% strke with over 50% P.O.T.
This seems to be profitable but the bets need to be large if I want to make it an earner.

Gnarkley, you're on fire!!

Any professional punter would be ecstatic with that POT!!

Sounds like you have found a good way of approaching the form!

I always like to know that a horse has at least run at the distance and if very short, at the track as well. The horse I mentioned earlier, Cornwall Park is running on Saturday. It has won 3 times at 1350 at Doomben, but never raced at Eagle Farm. I'm a little wary, so will watch until I see that he can run at Eagle Farm, or will have a smaller wager, if I can secure a decent price, which is very unlikely given its outstanding form.

Hi Mike,

Thanks for the feedback. I'm reasonably new to this forum and am hoping to develop some winning ideas through constructive analysis.

Have a great day and let's BACK SOME WINNERS!!!

Two Shoes

But if you are betting on every race available , It could be allright.
It could still be plenty of winners per day, certainly to make most days profitable.

But if you only having around 10 or so bets per day, or less, then could mean a long break between drinks when that inevitable run of outs rolls up.

Its good to lose, BUT NOT ALL THE TIME :(

Sorry Twoshoes,
That P.O.T. should have read 40%
Still reasonable ?

Sorry Twoshoes,
That P.O.T. should have read 40%
Still reasonable?

Absolutely reasonable!!

That's great going!

Are you using Betfair and other bookies? Perhaps you could increase POT there, as well as using a very conservative staking plan.

I would definitely be doing doubles as P.O.T. would increase and your strike rate would stay solid at around 30%

Two questions:

1. How long have you maintained your strike rate?

2. How many bets per week?

Two Shoes

Twoshoes,
I've only been using UniTab. I know I would be better off elsewhere but I only started looking at it seriously 8 weeks ago. In that time I've made 33 selections for 20 wins.
I thought about doubles but I'm pretty new to this and thought I'd be better off just trying to nail this first.

not having a go mate, but isnt it a little contradicting when in your earlier post you stated you had a sizeable bet on definately ready when it had never been to caulfield before, yet your saying here your happy to watch cornwall park go round without you, until you see it perform at eagle farm???

You are a superstar!!!
whats the average win divvie?

Keep those figures up your laughing!!

Only $2.30 I'm afraid

Quote:

not having a go mate, but isnt it a little contradicting when in your earlier post you stated you had a sizeable bet on definately ready when it had never been to caulfield before, yet your saying here your happy to watch cornwall park go round without you, until you see it perform at eagle farm???

Fair play Luv2bet,

Nothing's ever simple in the racing game is it?

I backed Definitely Ready because it had run a race record at Sandown at its second start after being checked. This puts it into another league.

I don't prescribe to have all the answers but I figure this one (Definitely Ready) will just keep winning. If you saw my post before the race I put up the last 600m which was 32.64, again SENSATIONAL. The opposition was pretty awful as well. I also couldn't believe the time it ran at its first start in Adelaide.

Cornwall Park has good numbers on the board but nothing like that, so that's why I'm a bit wary. Ever since Chief De Beers, I've always been wary of the Doomben/Eagle farm thing.

I hope this helps to delve into my psyche a little further Luv2bet, I guess the beauty of form analysis is that nothing is cut and dried, that's why I love it!
Every race is a new conumdrum. We all carry different scars, for instance, I should have forgiven Here De Angels on Wednesday, I saw it in the mounting yard looking so relaxed and on form it should have won, but I couldn't forgive it for previous indiscretions. History says it bolts in at a very backable price.

Cest la vie

Two Shoes

Gnarkley,

Get on the Betfair train. Or at least grab the best of 3 states from Sportsbet. This will add a bit more spice to your divvies. You do have to bet just before the race with Betfair though, or else get one of the bots which I haven't progressed to yet.

8 weeks in your doing mighty fine!! Keep it up and you'll have just over 200 bets for the year. With your strike rate you could be betting 3-4% of your bank each time and make a very tidy profit throughout the year without stressing out too much.

Best of luck Gnarkley, I like your style.

Two Shoes