Bhagwan's no.9 Lay Method
 

Bhagawn, I've been betting your no.9 Lay method from Thursday 19 November, and the only filter I've applied is that the selection's Lay price must be $10 or less on Betfair.

I haven't bet every selection because I'm often not at a computer.

My results for the three days are:

Thursday - 1 selection for one success.
Friday - 4 selections for 4 successes.
Saturday - 10 selections for 9 successes.

There's been 14 successes from 15 selections for a profit of 10.80 units.

There's been two selections in barriers 1 to 3. One was the accident and the other ran second. Another started from barrier no.4 - it ran third. Still, its much too early to tell if there's any merit in the barriers.

Well done Michael.

Thanks for sharing those findings.

Cheers.

I did not bet on Sunday which could have been lucky because it apperas there were 4 accidents, two of them quite damaging.

Couldn't this be applied to any number??
I haven't looked at the fields today so know nothing of the horses or their form.....today's lay is number 5 @ 8 or less. Regardless of barrier or number of runners. Horses. dogs, trots, the works.

Dont lay Kilmore Race 7 Horse 2 - Master of Design.

(a) its scratched.

(b) its a very fast horse.

Mark what is your take on this Betfair premium charge ? I presume that when I am not using my Betfair funds they are being invested on the short term money market with Betfair taking the interest income.

So I am pretty dissappointed with this type of charge - one of the reasons I joined Betfair was cause of its low cost (to the punter) model - and after donating to State Revenue's for 30 odd years (TAB's) I thought it was time to give somebody else a go.

Reckless, I've written my feelings about it on another thread. I think it's a despicable money grab by a monopoly that is now unfortunately showing its true colours. I'm most disappointed at some of the responses on the BF forum. A few have welcomed it (losers would be my guess, even though they all declare to be consistent winners) and they just cannot see that if BF get away with this charge (they have) then they will introduce further costs/charges. So those that it doesn't affect now will be caught up somehow later down the track, but they just cannot see it.
For several years now I have been a great advocate of BF, recommending it to all and sundry.....but no longer.

Sorry, cross dogs & trots off post 4, I couldn't be bothered staying up to all hours checking results.

Michaelg,
No 2yr olds, No Jumps, No First Career starters, No contender with a win
in last 3 starts and results improve to ONE accident only.
Regards
Shalor

I make it 6 lays for number 5 for no wins...100%.

How's Betdaq's liquidity these days?
I must confess, I've never been hit with the Premium Charge.
Although I make a profit, I pay commission on every part of every little win, not just the longterm win, whereas many pay little commission on little wins so pay Premium Charge on top.

a) scenario one
Turnover $10,000 and make $2,000 profit.
Pay 5% plus premium charge on $2,000 profit because there are hardly any losses.

b) scenario two
Turnover $10,000 and make $2,000 profit.
Pay 5% with no premium charge because I've been paying 5% on every winning bet that has to counter losing bets.

Basically they slug all traders and "book" makers, they also slug bookmakers for laying off.

If I were to ever pay premium charge, I'd ditch them, however, it's unlikely.

My approach is to play bookmaker so I don't pay any extra "tax".

I ensure my book is unbalanced but in my favour longterm, if that makes sense.

Haven't looked at Betdaq for years, there never seemed to be any money there. I'm surprised that none of the TAB's has jumped on the PC or even started their own exchange.


Let's stick with number 5 today, it worked yesterday.

Place2win, thanks for the analysis.

However, I've lost interest in at for the time being because there is not much action. If I do look at it again I'll apply your filters.

Mark, I've had a look at laying number 5 but according to Unitab starting prices for the past week or so it doesn't seem too promising. Maybe I just looked at the wrong days/races.

Thorn's no.1 method is still steaming along - 37 successes from 41 selections for a profit of 29.20 units.

Where do i find Thorns method?

Michael, you know I was joking, however I'm sure that laying any number would show a long term profit. Your 1 week was not promising, my one day was 100%, neither are large enough samples. Just for today I'll post results of laying 1-2-3-4-5 @ 8 or less. Yes, Thorns number 1 is flying.

Mark, I think applying filters to numbers would even be better. I've generally found that no.2 should not be layed especially on Saturdays. Maybe a filter regarding its weight..?

Coochiemudlo, Thorn's Laying selection method is:

1) No.1
2) Maximum of 12 runners.
3) Placed last start.
4) Now starting from barriers 1-3.

The rules are illogical but Thorn has Wed and Sat results for the past few years which shows the method is in profit for both days. I've been laying the method every day since Tues 11 Nov with success.

Thanks Michaelg. Sounds interesting

I apply a max Lay price of $9.80. There have been 9 selections above that price - they've all lost but I don't include them in the results.

There are four selections today:
Eagle Farm R3 no.1 - won for a loss of $1.80 units.
Balaklava R3 - success.
Balaklava R7 - success.
Eagle Farm R8.

After three races I am 0.10 units in front. It doesn't look like I'll get the required $9.80 on E.Farm R8 as no.1 is $13 in the pre-post market.

Michael

Why $9.80 specifically?

When I have any interest in a Lay system I generally look at Unitab prices to see how it would have gone over a certain period. I find it convenient to just look at single-figure prices, also any accident over that in my opinion is too damaging. As you know, Maria's cut-off price is/was $11, I prefer $9.80.

Laying random numbers today (rough results, some from exact BF prices & some guesses)

1- 10/12 +6.3
2- 6/11 -7.9
3- 7/7 +7
4- 9/11 +2.1
5- 7/7 +7
9- 3/5 -6.5

total 1-5 39/48 +14.5

Thorns system I lost 1.20, won .95, won .95, for +.7.

Just a question?

What was the "Maria" system?
Cheers.
darky

Hi darkydog2002,
You can google 'maria system' for a full in depth report
In a nut shell it is a laying system designed to manage
against the possible blow-outs in laying;
i.e price >3.5 lay 1% of bank
between 3.6 - 7.4 lay .7% of bank
between 7.5 - 11 lay .4% of bank
No bet over 11/1
Prices are relative to your selections
Regards
Shalor

Heres her original forum thread as well

http://www.expertbettingadvice.co.u...hread18432.html

Is the link okay mods?

Thank you both for that.I really appreciate it.

Just had a look.Really good stuff.

Cheers and good luck today.

darky

It fits in with the New Forum Posting Guidelines (sticky post at start of this forum.)