Unitab Data Base
 

If anyone has a Unitab D.B. would you be able to check out this system?

1) 100 pointer.
2) Minimum of 8 runners.
3) Won last start.
4) At previous start finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th.

Over the past 7 days there were 16 selections for 11 winners totalling a return of $35.40, and 14 placegetters totalling $25.70.

Michael,

From a seperate little database I have...

878 selections

246 winners - S/R 28.02% - Return $861.20 - Loss $16.80 - LOT 1.91%

499 placings - S/R 56.83% - Return $809.84 - Loss $68.16 - LOT 7.76%

Maximum win dividend $15.80
Average win dividend $3.50
Minimum win dividend $1.00 (deadheat)

I think it has legs betting Top Fluctuation.
Dividends used were Unitab.

Hi Chrome & Michaelg,

What happens if you eliminate all city meetings? A quick look at the past 11 days improved the returns when I did this. I do not have a data base to work on so it's "longhand" for me!

Hi, Try.

I noticed Sat results had 5 selections for no winners and 3 placegetters for a return of $4.40 but I assumed it was just coincidence. However it might not be so.

Chrome, thanks for the results. If possible could you delete city meetings as Try suggested?

Thanks in advance.

Sorry, I only have city meetings for Unitab raters.

Thanks, Chrome.

Even the city meetings show promise so I'll keep a record of the results and selections and will list them here so we can see how they go. However, I'll identify city and non-city races. There's one city selection tonight:

Moonee Valley R6 no.11 - Trajet.

Whilst I don't want to give the game away completely, this is VERY similar to something I've been doing for several years, so just to help; add the following:
Firstly if at MR or SR back BOB (lux bet) i.e. best tote or Top Fluc. otherwise bet best tote/sp, or if country best of 3 totes; ok now:

LSW. yes but if Metro today then that win must have been metro and within 21 days.

selection must be running in a race less than 2000 metres and be pre-post fav. (always using the same source of pre post)

I've also been using a little similar approach which kind of astounds the the notion of value, but seems to work well.

Last start winner
Within 30 days
Open odds on with the bookies

Take Top Fluctuation.
No first starters, no horses that just placed, no spells.

Hey partypooper,
how long have you been doing this, by my recollection it would have to be more than five years.

;)

From reading Chrome's and Party's postings here it appears the system has promise.

Today's selections:

CITY
Eagle Farm 2 no.4 - Gundy Son
Eagle Farm R8 no.16 - princess Qualo
Rosehill R6 no.9 - Pinwheel
Morphetville R1 no.1 - I'm Discreet
Morphetville R3 no.1 - Atlantic Air

NON CITY
Ballina R1 no.4 - Iveagh (already run - unplaced. Bummer!!!).

I too have something close to this with a few extra filters.

michaelg I think you will find that city out performs non city.

Chrome, yes it's more than 5 years but there have been a few tweaks along the way. As you know the problem is the more filters the less no of bets so its a case of accepting some losers to get the turnover. (as you also know I an VERY interested in turnover, hee hee)

Eagle Farm 2 no.4 - Gundy Son unplaced
Eagle Farm R8 no.16 - princess Qualo 2nd
Rosehill R6 no.9 - Pinwheel WON ($1.40)
Morphetville R1 no.1 - I'm Discreet WON ($1.20)
Morphetville R3 no.1 - Atlantic Air WON ($1.80)

-.60 units Unitab

Probably a profit at TF (can't check IAS is down)

EDIT using another site:

SP $1.50 TF $1.65
SP $1.20 TF $1.20
SP $1.80 TF $2.10

So it's -.60 units Unitab
-.50 units SP
-0.05 units TF

Mmmmm, MAYBE

OK I have some figures for you, from Feb. 2008 Metro only

381 horses (some would be under 8 runners)
115 winners 30.18% SR Return Unitab $375.35
218 placed 57.21% SR Return $354.90


428 that won the last two starts
143 winners return $259.80
268 placed return $393.04

Thanks, Crackone.

It's interesting to see that your results are quite similar to Chrome's 878 races in that there is a slight loss with each-way betting on Unitab.

With NTD races I'm assuming they're not profitable, this is solely based on other methods I've looked at. If this is correct, then your LOT might be not as "bad" even though Chrome's results did omit NTD races.

And it is also interesting to see that those that won their last two starts have suffered a loss close to 50% on Win betting but surprisingly not with Place betting. Win betting has a strike rate of 33% but the divvies must have been extremely skinny - I might now start to lay them.

Yesterday's non-city selection was the only loss since testing a week ago.

I would say that the horses that won their last two starts would be overbet.
I wonder about horses that won their last three starts?
Got me thinking.

My mistake the figure should have been 359 not 259

Unitab 100
Won last three
162 horses
50 winners $120.60 return
103 placed $153.20 return

Crackone, by my calculations the amended results for the 100 pointers that won their last two starts is a LOT of 16%, and those that won their last 3 starts is a LOT of 25%. I once read someone was winning by laying all horses that won their last 3 starts but when I started to do so I found it was not profitable - I must have hit a bad period.

There are 2 selections (non metro) today:

Sun Coast R5 no.2 - Lurid
Hobart R7 no.4 - Moulin Rouge.

Normally very skinny odds. But laying all horses not just the 100 pointers you would have good and bad days.

found my non metro figures (only 7 months, Jan 2008 to Aug)
100 pointers won last start 2-4 second last start
111 runners
21 winners $72.80 return
51 placed $85.40

won last two
51 runners
16 winners $39.60
32 placed $47.90

won last three
7 runners
3 winners $5.10
6 placed $7.70

You can see though even with such a simple method with heaps of turnover, you get tantalisingly close to a profit. So work on few filters and see what happens, firstly back all MR & SR selections @ BOB (Luxbet; when available) otherwise all runners quoted at less than $4.01c @ TF.

Secondly start looking at that LSW, i.e. was it a soft win, same distance, Metro win, same conditions, Jockey, weight change etc etc

Thanks for the info re non metro system horses, Crackone.

The results are disappointing. Interestingly, Place betting in all the three categories you looked at were not as bad as Win.

Your figures for the seven months show a total of 111 non metro selections for the method. My initial test of one week had 10 non metro selections which would approximate 1.5 per day (there are 2 today) or inxs of 40 per month. In comparison, the amount of selections for your results seem somewhat few, particularly as they also include NTD races?

Crackone, your figures show with Unitab's 100 pointers that won their last two starts that there is approx a 25% loss - this is not a bad result for Laying the selections.

There's one selection today:

Narromine R4 no.8 - French Silk.


Non metro Bet selections.

Yesterday both selections ran second paying a total of $2.70

One selection today:

Pt Mac r8 no.4 - Safeas.

Does anyone know where to get archieved UNiTAB results? Now that it is 2010, the years available in the results and search pages are 2008, 2009 and 2010.

I'm hoping to check some old 2007 ratings for a ratings system I've been working through...

Thanks In advance

Originally posted by Stix
Hi Stix
thank you for your always interesting & helpful take on things.

Dont know about -for free- & don't know how much these cost--but

Quote unitab

--- Using TABOnline's Results and Search you can check the results for Racing, TattsBet or FootyTAB for any date in the past 2 calendar years


Prior years' information is available in html format on CD-ROM from UNiTAB. Please contact telebet@unitab.com.au for further details. ---

Cheers

P.S Part of 2007 included the Equine Influenza Shut down .
Do you -or others- think there was an -- Influenza - Influence --on Ratings & results from that time ???

Thanks very much....serves myself right for waiting until the new year to get back into it :o Better send an email to them.

With regards to IE, I'm not sure it would have, as the ratings (I think) are relative to the field the horse is in - but could be wrong here - I often only use them as a final filter for selections. For example I never have 100pt raters as a bet in <1200m races in melbounre - perhaps these are over bet(?) Where as the longer races (>1400m) with last start winners and 100 rated have assisted in all selections.

Anyhoo....must be off.

All The best.