subtle expressions of glee
 

some time back I backed Friday Creek at 56/1 and expressed great exhortations of jumpings for joy and had my thread removed by the moderator. However I have learned to sneak up on a significant gloat and wanted to express my opinion.

On Saturday I scored on New Edge and the same principle applied as to Friday Creek. New Edge won at Kembla in a good race in March at 55/1 also.
I have mentioned that I only follow listed horses and in the race on Saturday on my points system New Edge had 22 points the highest in the race.
Friday Creek had 19 points the most in each case in the race.
Tears i Cry had 18 points equal with molotov on Saturday. a few weeks ago Sniper's Bullet had 66 in the railway stakes 74 in the fruit and veg and Tarzi had 39 in the Railway and ran 2nd.
Class not form seems to be a strong determinant in winning I have always heard this but couldnt measure it. But at least I can now afford a new hat. I could quote a lot more, e.g. Baci Amore 8 points won at 14/1 My limit 7 points won 11/1 Pepperwood had 19 points on saturday against my limit with 7 points secrets untold had 17 points. in some of these races there are out of form horses with more points and some faith is required but maybe it separates the wheat from the chaff. Shocking had 22 points. viewed had 31 points when he won the Caulfield cup. Maybe this helps the patient punter. A month ago Posadas won in Sydney at $34 he had 18 points.

Hi topsy99

A bit of clarification please, if you don't mind

"I only follow listed horses"

The horses you focus on - previously just ran or had to be placed or had to be winners (in "listed" races)?

And does "listed" include all black-type races or just "listed" only

Thanks

How about you post these points before the races and not after

addressing the inquiries.
 

first. i keep a database of all placings and wnners of group 1, 2, 3 and 4 (lsted races) plus any high event races that are not listed eg. magic millions races etc. and give them a points rating. i have my database back to 1999 and have been messin with this for that long.
I tally up the points and deal with the highet number first.

in respect of the other inquiry regarding posting early. I am not sure of any obligation to post selections but am giving others an idea of my methods which I enjoy.
If it is of any use then good. if not interestd then okay.

Thanks for getting back to me Laurie, cheers mate :)

trying to be helpful
 

regardomg kiwz. i give the following points. group 1 won 8 place 7
group 2 6 (w) 5 (p) g3 w 4 p 3 listed 2 place 1. higher staked races 2 w p 1.


question for yourself and makybe diva. sorry makybe you are asking too much. i only operate race by race and dont spend all day friday preparing for saturday. its got to be easy or i think racing occupies too much of my life.


question for both of you. when you look at a race does the field tell you the above information or maybe the trainer is waiting for a race. or do they all look the same and we focus on the best recent form which may be misleading. if you followed the above principle you wont need anyone to do it for you.
i use gw basic for some of my programming also perl for another program and vbscript for another and a msdos batch file for another. its great fun and eductional. (and throws a few longshots)

Seems a very basic system to me. Can't see how it would profit in the long run. Recent form is also more relevant than form in the past.

knowing too much
 

an analysis is needed to prove your statement. my view is nothing is guaranteed . and fortune favours the brave. in a review of over 5 weeks 133 horses under the above methods won. while my backing form barriers etc returned 30 only. this capital city races saturday only.
looks okay to me ramped me back to the class performers and and instant return.
I have always wondered about this forum. people seem to expect too much from it. I punt for the fun of it, backing the occasional longshot and improving my computing methods. what others do it for is their business.

i share my thoughts if they are of any use if not then please disregard.

People are allowed to post an outline of how they find some winners at big odds without being required to post their tips in advance or reveal their selection rules.

Thanks.

Moderator.

famous quotations
 

was it president garfield who said to alexander bell that the telephone was a great idea but i cant see myself ever using one.

somethings are not compulsory but can be useful.

Hi topsy99,

Great to see someone thinking outside the square and trying a new approach. Congratulations on your recent longshot winners - hope it continues into 2010 and beyond! It's good to see that you are reaping the benefits of your years of "hard work".

I've just started looking at determining the "Field Strength" of Saturday Melbourne City meetings. It is very early days but it did "throw up" Tears I Cry last week - it's too early to put the cold hard cash as yet so I had to just watch and wonder what could have been!

That's the trouble with anything new - it takes time to build the data base.

I'm not claiming anything with this method other than it sems helpful.
i am thrilled to get a 66/1 winner on a horse i should have backed anyway.
another factor is that most races do not have a listed horse in them and i dont touch those races.
I build the database from the results in mondays thoroughbreds page in the australian. its easy to do doesnt take as long as agonising over a race.


maybe i could help you with the database. you also need to be able to search the data base to match the races today so that the horses are automatically found and a small gwbasic program to check each name and to add up the points for you then you write the points next to the horses name.

take tears i cry for instance in any race where he was thehighest scorer at 22/1 he would have repaid 22 even bets for that win. thornhill recently won in adelaide with 25 points at 16/1 its as good as any system and better than most. its the trainer's job to win the race not mine.
i recall daunting lad and dance the waves in november in brisbane dance the waves had 28 points and daunting ld 29 i think the quinella was over 100$ surprised that any punter would want to go back to the dark.
let us know.

Interesting thread Topsy. I had a few dollars on Dual Chamber in r8 at Eagle Farm. It won. I couldn't believe $60 was available about it. In a field of 13 it beat the 3rd. horse home by 5 lengths in a Listed race at the same track in June, ran a decent 4th. in another Listed race then went for a spell. I ignored its first run back as not much went right from the widest barrier - 18.

i backed it last start. it had 3 points in saturdays races and i had a couple ahead also i didnt go down that far to check the price. a good result though wasnt it. i backed captain sonador with 7 points.
alverta had 23 points and was easily ahead in its race.

there is some fun in the method.

Keep up the good work topsy.
I do recall you mentioning this years ago here and wondered how it was going.
I think it's only natural to post enthusiastically after an idea snags a 66/1 winner.
Where would we be without Partypooper and his Plum Movers ,)

Chrome, yes credit where its' due, I also remember Topsy posting this idea many years ago, whilst it too far removed from my ideas I still acknowledge that it seemed to have some success.

and you are spot on with the ref to PPM, let's remember that a method that produces 10% winners at an ave. @ 11-1 is a goldmine!

I guess reality struck me with racing. it is a very good punter who can make money at the game and i guarantee i am not one of those. But I can put $50 in my tab account on first of january and still have it there on 31st of december and that has to be a huge saving on money spent elsewhere. And isnt it about the entertainment and the thrill of scoring a good result.


Does anyone rember Action Pak winning the Kalgoorlie Cup last year 2008 at $55 with 8 points. No form but won 5 starts ago. the 8 points is a clue.

I dont want to be a smartie in putting this stuff up but if it helps anyone else then thats good.
In the case of Action Pak would I have been better off backing the favorite.

PS
 

Thanks for the positive feed back its very encouraging.

[QUOTE=topsy99]I guess reality struck me with racing. it is a very good punter who can make money at the game and i guarantee i am not one of those. But I can put $50 in my tab account on first of january and still have it there on 31st of december and that has to be a huge saving on money spent elsewhere. And isnt it about the entertainment and the thrill of scoring a good result.


Well said Topsy99, too many punters follow the sheep inherant of the pitfalls,
as you say "think outside the square" grab a line and follow it, who Knows where it may lead, but you will have an exciting journey along the way.
Well done and good luck for the future(keep chasing the grail).
Regards
shalor

Hi Topsy99,

Do you treat all Group 1 races (and G2, G3 and Listed) the same irrespective of whether they are 2yo, 3yo or older, with regards to the points you apply?

Yes. group one. is group 1 dont try to put values on that may or may not be of any use. e.g. a south australian group 1 may be considered inferior to melbourne but i recall On a Jeune (placed in SA Derby) winning cranbourne cup at 42/1 also allez wonder placed vrc oaks last year winning listed at kembla grange (3/09 same day as New Edge)at 50/1 then the toorak at 43/1 just accept what it says. trying too hard has often cost me in the past.
best wishes.

As a matter of incidental fact, did you know that backing all outsiders on Betfair is a profit, I think it's anything over 500/1.
It's a long long time between drinks, but they do lob more often than the odds suggest.
It's actually the reason why laying at $1.01 to $1.04 is profitable ;)

Hey Topsy99,

Does a horse need to have won at listed level to qualify to begin with?

Thanks for sharing your idea as it gets the grey matter out of it's solid state!

Cheers
Twodogs

re qualifying.
 

yes they must place at listed level or won .
Or better e.g. group level. Dont qualify a horse because you had a bit of luck with him. Class will catch them out.

In some cases i qualify a higher staked race as in cases like brisbane there are not that many listed and group races and brisbane is a good racing venue.
in adelaide i give the $41,000 race a listed b level which still counts as 2 for win and 1 for place.
I only qualify Perth races on listed or group level as the prizemoney is greater than Adelaide or Brisbane.
I have found over time that putting higher staked country races in is risky and tend to ease up here. Benefits of what I do is that my betting is relatively restricted and a lot of days there are no bets.
You see some odd results i recall in 2007 Our Bahare whose only claim to fame was placing in the vrc derby in 2003 and rarely won a race he won at 36/1 from barrier 1 as the only listed horse in a race at mornington in 2/2007
then followed up next start and won the stoney creek cup at 12/1 I was lucky enough to be at Hobart races that day. But what this says is that "we often know too much" and make decisions according to our memories of a horse or prejudices or hype. The scoring takes the prejudices out and backing selective races lessens the accummulated losses to enable us to take more risks with longshots. Maybe the trainer knows his horse is the best in the race and when they get a barrier it delivers. A simple test can also tell us the same information.

Sound advice Topsy,

By restricting yourself to the top echelon of horse flesh, at least you guarantee that class is always on your side.

As these class horses get older, they do tend to get unreliable, so if you can stick like glue, chances are you'll snag a winner at tasty odds. Maybe put a ceiling on age at say 7 or 8 years old?

Do you keep stats on the age of your longshot victories Topsy?

I like what you said about taking the emotion out of it. We punters tend to forget that we're backing horses and often hold personal vendettas against individual nags for one bad run when we had a stack on (case in point for me Almohad) or lost a race in a photo.

What I do like about quality horses is that they do tend to be reliable, now as for jockeys...........

Two shoes

be patient
 

every saturday there is a couple of long priced winners and occasionally on sundays. although i am not a lover of sunday racing due to short odds.
a factor i use is to use the year of qualifying as a divider.
e.g. as per our bahare qualifying in 2003 and backing him in 2007 which is almost 4 years 11/03 to 02/07 tells you that it has not performed in listed class for several years and for this reason you will need longer odds about it.
eg. you wouldnt take 3/1 about a horse like that. and there are many of them. take a horse like fraaclase qualified in 2005 and always looks a chance but rarely wins. 4 years since listed qualiying so you wouldnt take short odds about fraaclase in fact backing it with counterfeit money may be adventurous. I would want 20/1 about fraaclase but you wouldnt get it but the 4 odd years of no placings in good races tells you something and maybe it tells you to leave it alone. However on the plus side I used to be incredulous about Tora Tora Tora in Adelaide and talk about flogging a dead horse but he has repaid me handsomely lately (he qualified in 4/06) since he moved to country nsw and won some cups. most of them have their day I even backed General Albert in Perth 2 months ago at 33/1 couldnt do anything in melbourne.
Take Tarzi (WA Champ) has 3 point 3/05-9/07 in Victoria (30 months) now has 49 points due to becoming a top performer in Perth. You cant carry your prejudices can you. Hope this is helpful Use the year of qualifying as an indicator.
8 Proart (5) 59.0 5yo ch h (A Durrant at Lark Hill) P Hall
"proart(good)(1400)(ascot)21-11-09)8"
tw 59.0, mb 0 wc 56.0, ww 56.0 Fred Factor: 2.331

Information is pulled out automatically on a Perl programme that I use on cyberhorse zip files hope it helps you.

Thanks Topsy99,

Much appreciate your explanations and examples as it helps to look at them to see what your talking about.

Regards
Twodogs

villiers numbers
 

"rabbuka(g",7
"spinney(g",33
"lyncean a",4
"rockwood(",15
"parfumier",1
"rags to r",31
"our lukas",5
"hairy(goo",7
"love and ",21
"adnocon(g",2

for those interested these are the villiers numbers this is not designed to be a tipping list the judgement is for the interested the miscellaneous g and brackets are rough programming

Thanks Topsy99

Have done the race now myself and have pretty much what you have except for Rags to Riches as the data base I am using doesn't go back to the start of his career.

Cheers
Twodogs

also not the horse it was. was placed in this race last year though.

And Spinney got up for third for a lovely div of $5.20 best tote.

Well done Topsy99

Maybe it would be better to only consider the last say 4 years of the horses career?

Cheers
Twodogs

Doomben race 6 no 9 Plain Magic was the only horse I could see that qualified as a black type in the race and it won at $10 top fluc

Twodogs

ref last 4 years.
 

i use the years as a divider. i divide the total by the last year that the horse qualified. if it is in the last year then 1.
had a couple of good divs like any system these can be subjective
scored with sanderson and luckily spinney featured. i also backed jordan valley for place only. i back spinney on its hawkesbury cup win and last start lost my money but it has a good record and trainer.
i suppose you checked mustard with 35 points. but couldnt make myself back a 12 year old. kicked myself last time it won as well.
poor odds on some seesawing and chekvadatze (hard to spell)
but good horses and very convincing.
I hope you see the principle of what i do. cuts the action a bit but maybe concentrates the money particularly if you are a good judge.
a good one got up in hobart today dream pedlar at 18/1 7 point and placed int he hobart cup a couple of starts back i have tidied up that program and can put up some on the blog if any one is interested. it will either make things better or make things worse. but one of my biggest failures has been trying too hard to back a winner. e.g. touching horses when i am looking for a bit rather than being patient.

Evening Topsy,

Am very interested in anything that will help the grey matter whether that be examples with points or anything else you can add as food for thought as it is all very much appreciated.

Twodogs

Yes I did and I watched the race in amazement!! Goes against what we are told is smart!! Backing old horses!

Twodogs

In this race Topsy Conquering had scored more points, what made you look at Dream Pedlar?

Cheers
Twodogs

Yes Topsy

Your looking for the Class horses of the race and only those that have qualified as black type horses.

Cheers
Twodogs

this is faith or obvious
 

re dream pedlar. I look for longshots. here is my calculation.
both horses qualified in the last year.

points divided by 10 multiplied by price

conquering 29/10*2.6 = 7.54
dream pedlar 7/10*18 = 12.6
the value was in dream pedlar.

conquering at $2.60 is of no use to punters like me.
dream pedlar at 18/1 is challenging.

see where the judgement comes in and possibly the risk and greed
I am wrong as often.
The calculation favors horses greater than 10/1

Thanks Topsy for the explanation!!

Makes sense what you say and the bigger divs make up for the lower strike rate I am sure.

Do you find the approach performs better in black type races or in lower class?

Twodogs

in black type there is more competition but higher prices.
and also when the good ones are firing the odds arent that great for the winners. patience is important over the recent times i recall some big winners e.g. douro valley won a group 1 with 27 points and paying $38. no form but reasonably fresh. maldivian won the cox plate 35 points.
course there are disappointments when they do nothing but i find that even when i think the form is good and have high expectations they let you down.
so in general over a long period of time e.g. 20 years i havent found one system more superior to others in strike rates except that black type horses tend to get up when the barrier is right at good odds. i recall mr orient winning two in a row in brisbane recently at good odds was placed at list level in 3/08 18/1/ listed horse from barrier was was good then won next start at double figures from wide barrier.
I find Adelaide and Perth hard to win at form seems to taper off quickly e.g. horses are often not good for more than one year and then reduced to the odd win. this is why i look for good odds i also think trainers are targeting a decent price. Getting repeat winners in hobart in recent times is scarce as hens teeth.I did back Danleigh 59 points when he won the manikato stakes group 1 from barrier 1. Its a hard game and I find mid-week racing to be fraught with danger and virtually am inactive these days during the week although i do the print out. monday and tuesday rarely returns a winner.
dont forget the test. points/10*price/year often this calculation will put the value down fairly low unless the odds are good or or the listed points are good.