Market Manipulation
 

Many years ago I did a bit of a study of tote versus bookie and various betting products. Bookies clearly won hands down at the sharp end of the market and the tote won at the longshot end.
Since the introduction of Mid Tote, Best Tote and the closure of winning punters accounts by bookies, big punters have made no secret of manipulating tote pools and taking best tote products with a large number of bookmakers to ensure that winnings are spread out.

What is amazing, is how this has turned the statistics for other smaller punters and how the takeout of the tabs can not necessarily equal a loss.

For this exercise I considered horses that were favoured and firmed in betting on track with the bookies.

As I'm considering firmers, Top Fluctuation is ruled out, as we wouldn't know enough in advance to get set.

Horses that opened $3.00 or less on track were considered and any movement below opening price was flagged, even if later is blew out in price again.

SP loses 7.24%
NSWTAB loses 0.66%
STAB loses 0.80%
UNiTAB loses 0.70%

Clearly now, the TABS are far better value, however, the bookies are miles ahead at Top Fluctuation, but only if you can correctly predict price movements.
At Top Fluctuation, you'd make 8.86%.

However, at best tote the result is (drumroll)

Best Tote 3.90%

Clearly the boys manipulating the markets by seeding bets on the tote on other horses to blow out the price of their fancy have turned the market around in the last five years.
I don't believe that this is bookies laying off on the tote, as the firmers would be less value, it is obviously market manipulation.

Just as a benchmark here are the returns on all horses opening $3.00 or less on track, regardless of whether they firmed or drifted.

SP -11.91%
Top Fluc - 6.59%
NSWTAB - 7.08%
STAB - 8.04%
UNiTAB - 8.28%
Best Tote - 1.91%

Interesting again that Best Tote is as close to breakeven you can get and beats Top Fluctuation hands down.

Just following the bigger players nets you 3.90% with no commission, and it would be easy to manipulate the prices with a couple of decent well placed wagers on the totes and dispersing your larger wagers with many corporates at best tote.

The market has changed remarkably.

SportingBet's MaxiDiv and IASBET's City Best SuperPrice appear to be great value.

Thanks Chrome Prince. The answer for the question i posed in Best Odds.
Regards Beton

Chrome, in my opinion Maxi Divi (or Sportsbet best tote/sp) or Lux bets BOB at MR &SR (i.e. best Tote/Top Fluc) are all good but IAS is only best tote NOT best tote/sp so is an inferior product to be avoided if you have the choice.

Beton, I forgot to mention the best of three totes or SP combined.
Quite a few have these bet types now.

All horses open at $3.00 or less on track
-0.06% loss, a gnat's whisker from breakeven.

Horses open at $3.00 or less on track and firm.
4.72% POT

Enjoy ;)

Yes, clearly there are limitations to what you can reasonably get.
I can't bet early, so Top Fluc is out for me, as all my selections are price sensitive.
Best tote /sp is clearly superior to just best tote, and best tote plus is probably better.
Best of two is a lot worse, but usually still well ahead of SP.

Tom Waterhouse will let you on Top Fluc to the jump, but only if your selection drifts.

How kind!

That's kind of like advertising cheaper broadband, but only if you don't use it.
:D

I'm not sure how long a winning punter would have a life with best of three plus SP, can't for the life of me see how a bookie can make a quid from it.
They must be relying on the punters who back drifters.

Mmmmmm, interesting stuff Chrome, even more so to learn that the situation changes over time.

Not very long at all CP and I, and at least one other I know have the Email to prove it.
Bookies are nor competing with the Salvation Army.

Just try and bet on 5/1 chance a couple of hundred $ and win 2 to 3 times out of five regularly, and see how long it takes to be restricted to a $10 max bet?

Good luck

So am I reading this right, take this example:

Horse opens at $3.00, first fluc is at $2.75, but then later drifts out to $3.50, this horse would be under the category that show a break even at TAB prices?

Sounds very interesting. Out of interest, what would you ecpect the return to be on Betfair? Similar to best tote?

I believe that IAS and LuxBet don't restrict you.
Alex Read told me they don't ban winning punters.

Which brings me to a very important point that I'm very uneasy about and haven't seen it mentioned anywhere.

LuxBet offer odds based on mid tote and metro best tote.
Given that they own two of the totes the dividends are calculated from, means they have their finger on the button.
I'm not suggesting that they do anything untoward, but to me it seems like a conflict of interest for punters and open to abuse.
I really feel that regulatory bodies have failed punters in this area.

Hypothetically it would be possible to alter the odds to their advantage.
Not saying it occurs, just suggesting that avenue should have been shut down.

Thorns, you're an astute man.
I was hoping nobody would pick up on that.
Yes it's true, and it's extremely rare for a horse to firm and then blow out a big percentage on track.
However, it is not uncommon for the reverse to happen.

Betfair return I would expect to be below the best product offering by bookies after commission. You have to give away 5% and many horses go off shorter than the bookies.

Haven't tried them CP, after a few bad experiences I gave up on them.
On the long-shots I'm betting on, the TAB is usually better anyway.
Will contact them tho, and see what happens, wouldn't mind more than two avenues open, gives you a choice for better odds.

Thanks

Case in point Grafton race 3, my first selection No. 13. Supertab $7.4 IAS just checked, Fixed price $6.00.

Incidentally it won and I'm OK for the day.

Cheers

Ps
Correction, I have an account with Q. TAB but its odds are ususally worse than Supertab so I hardly ever use it, but just checked, my horse paid $9.20 on Tabonline and I missed it, coises!

or like taking out a fixed loan with a bank which only applies if the rates drop
:rolleyes:

i thought that was the point of your original post -- so did thorns :)

Chrome,

Do you have figures for those that open at 3 or less, and ONLY drift in price?
Would these be close to a lay proposition? Have had a look over the previous few days, and looks as though it could almost be an option.

Yes, it's close a definite lay approach if you get the right odds.

Top Fluc -6.45%
Bet Tote -0.90%
Best of Tote & SP 1.28%
SP -9.34%

This is for backing those that open $3.00 or less and only those that drift.

I have to retract my previous statement about Betfair not being better value wise, I have been scooping up massive overs on favourites, I don't know what some people are doing, but it's like winning lotto.

I'm not bragging, I am just astounded at what some guys will lay at.

Unconquerable Top Fluc $4.00 I got $7.00
Helvetia Top Fluc $11.00 into $8.00 I got $12.50
Craiglea Royale Top Fluc $2.00 into $1.80 and back out to $2.00, I got $2.50 and $2.60

Amazing.

It just reinforces what poor value the TABs are , which are usually less than the bookies prices for the 5.00 & less shots.

If one just takes note of the price difference between the TABs & Betfair prices the gap can be astounding.

Sometimes 200-300% difference.

Why would anyone want to bet with the TAB were price cant be secured & the prices usually lower, yet millions of dollars are still put out there through the TABs.

No wonder the Govt treats punters as fools ,when they continually take lower value than what can be had on say Betfair .

You gotta laugh.