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Wide Barrier System
Hey all, long time reader, thought I would put this one out there for somebody to check the figures on this system. If someone could break the figures into City and Country meetings that would be great. I have been trying a few ideas on the online system builder.
1300-1500m 8-12 Runners Barrier 10-12 Placed last start Won in last 4 starts Any help would be appreciated. There are some great ideas on this site and the occasional great tip, keep up the good work. Auspunter79 (Just last night there was a great $21 win at Sunny Coast) |
Another winner today...
Rosehill Race 8 MR UNFORGETTABLE W 5.00, P 1.90 |
Heres one I created using Online System Creator
RULES .11-12 Runners .Like %4% (4th in any last 4 starts) .Barriers 11-12 .1st-2nd LS Result 24% SR 83% POT There were less than 150 selections , so needs more testing. |
Impressive results AustPunter
Well done. |
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10 year result sel 702 win 101 Loss 26.45% |
Thanks Bhagwan
Shaun - any chance of having the results broken into city and country?? I'm a little surprised by the 26.45% loss, as it seems the last few years it's returning good positive returns. 10 years is a long time and every system will have its ups and down, hopefully its on a good run of wins, because I have been having some nice wins. |
Barrier Bias
Some time** ago i was following a couple of chaps on a UK forum re handicapping. One of them posted a link that produced a booklet re barrier bias. I downloaded it and it had no value to me then so it is filed on a dead computer somewhere. However from memory the book listed most UK tracks and their win statistics for inner middle and outer barriers. In a field of 18 it would list the inner 6 barriers middle 6 and the outer 6. It gave these in lenghts of races and field size and standard track variences. From memory there was a discussion about the effect of barrier bias and the some barrier draws on certain tracks were such a disavantage that if a horse drew that barrier the trainer would scratch the runner. You could clearly at 1600M say at Ayr you did not back barriers 6 to 10, however at 1200M this was less a problem.
Is there a database available for Australian track bias? Regards Beton |
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Thanks Crackone thats a good start. Shows the results of each barrier with out consideration of field size. In graph form it shows some peculiarities and clear track bias. Some barrriers at a particular distance have no result while the adjacent barrier has a good result. This has to be from the number of runs considered. I was looking at the results with consideration of field size. Beton
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Randwick Barrier 7 up to and including 1600M (not 1400!) always in profit. If your selection happens to be in b 7 so much the better I suppose? There are more like this but sorry don't ask, love to help but a man has to have an edge in this game! Good luck |
lomaca
There is an obvious edge even it you only use as a choice between two runners Beton |
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There is a line between being open to all and sundry and going behind the forum to divulge info to only certain members. It would be unfair to both the forum proprietors who pay for all this and to the other members as well, so I prefer to give a hint and others can do the research themselves once the way is pointed out to them. May I add that you will find the % rate of barriers on the net but not which ones are the profitable ones. (incidentally I can't explain why some barriers at certain tracks ARE better than others, I'm in the process of studying all tracks to make sense of it, but sure as I sit here, others have already done it and profiting from it!) Good luck |
LSB. Obviously some statistically minded soul saw value in researching this in the UK. Had the brains to think of it and do it then allowed it to be freely be copied on the internet. The key is to get a base of barrier wins in specific fields at specific distances. and then sort out for rail placement. A chore but I think well worth it. Beton
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lomaca
I just ran figures for 1000-1050M EF 10 runners. Only 20 races in my database.B1 only 1 win, B9 for 4 wins and B2 the only positive @3%. Too small a sample. Beton |
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Re: earlier posts on UK track bias.
Beware of old information re: these. I have seen UK publication saying many biases noted have changed or been eliminated by course works at the different courses in recent times. |
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Bp 5, Dist 1600, Wins 21, Races 179, POT $49.00, Win% 11.73. sorry |
Todays Wide Barrier Runners:
Benalla Race 7: #10 Very Suave (2nd - $3.00) Kembla Grange Race 6: #9 Military Secret (Unplaced) Flemington Race 7: #2 Absolute Faith Randwick Race 8: #3 Madibagold Ascot Race 8: #6 Real Honour |
The Lightning Stakes result provided a very good illustration of barrier stats.
The winner Nicconi came from the most outside gate (10) and second Wanted came from barrier 1. Both of these barrier positions have outstanding stats at Flem 1000 metres. |
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