Despised Outsiders' Treble
 

I managed to sneak away with my reputation intact last time I had a roughies posting. It was a bit nervewracking, however, having runs of outs approaching three figures. Nevertheless, a win is a win and I'm taking it. I'm going to try and slow the capitulation and pick what I think are the best of the worst going around. Sometimes you come across undistinguished races with lots of undistinguished horses in which one is a very long price even though its form is on an undistinguished par with its opponents. That's the kind of horse I'm looking for.

EAGLE FARM
Race 1 no 8 All Our Way
Race 8 no 20 Logie

MORPHETTVILLE
R7 no 14 Moggaden

Moggaden went OK last week being photoed out of 3rd (paying $17 place). He's an underrated horse although I think he needs a rest now. Watch for him first up. His record over the short courses isn't bad. This was his first campaign as a stayer.

Will try these as a treble this week. All are at Morphettville Parks:
R2 no 8 Miss Newnham
R3 no 9 Sadayakko
R4 no 3 Amyjaye Power

All terrible runs last week. Let's see how these go.
RICCARTON
R7 no 12 Pinch
ADELAIDE
R3 no 10 Meadow Star
R4 no 8 Spirited Princess

You could make a case for each of these today. Let's face it, there are some people who still believe the earth is flat. Cash in your Harbour Bridge shares and get on these!

OAKBANK
R8 no 19 He's A Hound Dog
DOOMBEN
R2 no 10 Whitemore
R9 no 8 Drumshanbo

He's A Hound Dog scratched at the barrier last week.
Three you can either despise or cheer home today are:
MELBOURNE
Race 5 Offenbach (41/1 prepost)
Race 7 Cross The Start (51/1 prepost)
BRISBANE
Race 2 Tell 'Em It's Easy (61/1 prepost)
Nice treble would return $120, 000 for your dollar.

Missed the $120, 000 last time. Confident of making amends with my $7 today.

SYDNEY
Race 2 no 5 Kirinata
Race 9 no 5 Innings
Melbourne
Race 4 no 1 Beltrois

Managed a placegetter with Beltrois. Was 19/1 prepost but got in and paid $2.6 the place.
Will try these non - winning types today and hope for the best. Wouldn't recommend more than $1 or $0.5 parlay though.

BRISBANE
R7 no 2 Fulmonti
(Around 10/1 - sometimes produces lightning finish but over more distance; fresh, nice price and small field; age may have dimmed sprint but worth a small go.)

ADELAIDE
R1 no 7 Heza Houndog
(Abysmal figures but has been beating more than half the field home in big fields in low grade; perhaps he can struggle into a place this time in small and limited field at very long odds.)
R3 no 4 Governor Bois
(Did little first up but overall jumps record is good. Only a tiny horse so he doesn't have to carry a lot of his own weight around. May return to his last preparation form. One of those things we will only know after the event [profound, I know].)

Time to make myself the target of derision for another week. This time $3.50 each way gets us $43,000. Last week Heza Houndog went close to a place which would've just about covered outlays.

MELBOURNE
Race 6 Our Palarchie (51/1 prepost on IAS)
(Placed 5 of last 6 in weaker company.)

Race 7 Tuscan Fire ($51/1 on IAS)
(Learning the trade in the country. Slowly improved each run and these are not established city horses.)

Sydney
Race 6 Hidden Kisses ($31/1 on IAS)
(Good record in inferior class)

So much good racing today I've decided to have two three leg parlays.
Parlay 1
Caulfield
R6 Savquaw (thereabouts type of horse at 61/1)
R8 Delyara (overall form is handy and showing 26/1 in very average company)
Randwick
R5 Slapstick (genuine improver who may show up at 51/1)
At the quoted odds a 50cent ($ 3.50 total) parlay would get you $43, 000.

Parlay 2
Caulfield
R7 Avoca Street (Honest type and 17/1)
Randwick
R8 Scouting Wide (Has a touch of brilliance though essentially a staying type - 12/1)
Doomben
R7 Machination (41/1 Honest but finds it hard to win. Seldom far away though.
If all 3 salute the $1 return is $9, 827.
Best other bolter is Oak Heart (31/1) in Caulfield race 4.

Despised Outsiders Treble - April 24th, 2010
 

Delyarra gave a whimper last time in and rounded off my Trifecta in the Tipping Competition run on this site.

I suggest if you are looking at this you should enter the weekly comps. They are easy to put on, cost nothing and offer great prizes ($50 and up to $200).
Added to that, if you are an egotistical narcissistic fop like myself you get to strut around in a pavonine manner for a week before the inevitable unceremonial plucking and roasting.
Just click where it says FREE TIPPING COMPETITIONS FORUM.

Okay, this week our $1 plunge ($14 really when linked win and place) returns us $22, 900 at current IAS win bet odds.

Brisbane
Race 7 no 2 Temple Of Boom
(Very handy youngster who will probably be shorter than the current 12/1)
Race 8 no 1 Fulmonti
(He's a horse that is very capable on his day. Considered better over more ground but can produce a lightning finish when in the mood. Currently 41/1)
Melbourne
Race 8 no 3 Figure Of Speech
(Form early in a preparation in NZ is okay. He is hard to catch but 41/1 is overs I think.)

I like these a bit today. All horses with ability but slightly out of their comfort zone. All are on the saucer like Gold Coast Track.

R2 no3 Showciti
R3 no8 Audacious Spirit
R7 no8 Court Ruler

Don't know why everyone whinges about the apparently tricky Gold Coast track. I reckon it is easier to tip winners there than Doomben or EF. They can pretty well win from anywhere except over the 900.

Barriers a big factor. I think it's about even money that no horse outside barrier 9 will win a race there today. Perhaps that's something that does make it easier - only have 9 horses to consider. I have been known to enjoy whingeing purely for whingeing's sake, Makybe.

Great, open racing today. A nice, sneaky treble showing $18, 556 to $1:

Flemington
Race 6 number 13 Skystreamer (even field - good chance at double figures)

Doomben
Race 5 no 16 Fifteen Carat (similar credentials to Skystreamer)
Race 6 no 13 Gunner Knox ($101/1 and racing consistently in big fields)

Why not check out the tipping comps. I've nominated a nice little double there and some of we other enthusiasts have found some excellent value runners. Have a go yourself and stand to win cash prizes for no cost to you!

Mmmmm maybe. 3/8 winners came from outside barrier 9.

Yeah Mak. I noticed this when Phelan Ready won the Magic Millions and paid about $90. He came from barrier 9 in the big field and I had him rated 4th considering barriers 1 to 9. Admittedly this was done as a bit of retrospective research (although what data can you have if you don't have retrospective - futuristic data would be good, especially if we could get on) with the selected horses fitting the results. I haven't really done any follow up as I tend to have a short attention span.
Might try listing the top 4 barriers 1 to 9 in fields of 15 plus and see how it goes. Keep your eye out for another grandiose, academic sounding posting by me. The anonymity of the web allowing my inner spiv the cloak of seeming respectability.
By the way, the rest of you out there, have a go at the comps. We're lucky that the boys go to the trouble of putting these on for us. Besides, I'm tired of winning them nearly all the time.

A few to make the pulses race today.
ADELAIDE
R6 no14 Mon Fils (good early in a preparation and showing 19/1)
DOOMBEN
R6 no13 Seesawing (handy 12/1 chance)
CAULFIELD
R8 no16 She's Got Wings (going well in weaker class and 121/1)

Our $7 win multi if they all get up is $31, 712 / 1.

Going to try a do - it - yourself quaddie with these today. Win returns
$71, 858 for $1 at quoted IASBET odds. All are at Doomben:

R2 no16 Mr Charlie Brown. (Good NZer and 26/1)
R4 no16 Murjulisa Lass (Looks handy and showing 16/1)
R5 no4 Keyora (Handy NZer flying under the radar and rated 21/1))
R8 no15 Spot On Target (Consistent local at 13/1)

I'm having another go at about $130, 000 / 1. I will borrow from Ed Wood and call this method Plan 9 From Outer Space. Don't ask me why. Again, all are in Doomben.

R1 no11 Raincoat (26/1)
R3 no13 Fasdehere (31/1)
R6 no19 Albertinelli 16/1
R7 no14 Russeting (41/1)

A couple of nice placings on Saturday. Will go an odds quaddie this week.

EAGLE FARM
R2 no8 La Etoile (good NZer)
R3 no10 Barinka (promising in NZ and this is a long way to come)
R5 no5 Tierqualo (promising type with some chance)
R7 no 17 Utopia (still learning but has ability)

My old world charm isn't working for me lately so I've decided that revenge could be the way to go. Hence these vengeful selections today.

Wingatui

R7 no5 Rene Maree (not many chances in this race - she appears to be one of them)

R9 no9 Flyby (I've been called a flybynighter at various stages in my life and hence I offer this - inexperienced but showing something)

R10 no 6 Stormy Rain (tipped by the local weatherman whose meteorological credentials are impeccable)

Sunshine Coast

R7 no6 Deacon (probably too short but is a serious Saturday horse when in form - Sunday makes this a topical tip also)
Of course Eire of Magic is a big chance too.

A nice little collect if even one of these scrambles home. All at Eagle Farm:

R3 no8 Shi Kin Fly
R5 no15 Castle Heights
R6 no5 Keyora
R7 no 12 Culminate

Keyora and Culminate ran respectable races on Saturday but no cigar. Going a little less wide today:

MOONEE VALLEY
R7 no12 Have A Shot
DOOMBEN
R5 no9 Beautiful Day
R7 no14 General Purple
MURRAY BRIDGE
R9 no9 Woofnoof

As usual I'm confident. Not sure why.

Running late today (like my tips usually do). A nice little psychological bet on the last at the four main venues. No matter what happens I can rest assured of a big win if I collect on this quaddie. 'If' is a tiny word but very pivotal.

Sydney
R8 no9 Grandissima
Ipswich
R8 no14 Tobouggie Wooggie
Melbourne
R8 no7 Spare a Dime
Adelaide
R8 no16 Sweet Lorraine

Expect about $64,000 for a 50c winb bet with IASBET(outlay $7.5)
Check the competitions forum to see what some of the other 'outside the square' punters are on. Some real good judges here. Better still, have a go yourself.

Here is my aptly named four leg treble for today (irony or something like that):
Three are from the soccer crazy New Zealand and the other...well, read on.

BRISBANE
R5 no 1 Ekstreme
R7 no2 Culminate
R8 no9 Sir Timekeeper
MELBOURNE
R8 no 13 Tell The Story

A bit conservative today:

AWAPUNI
Race 1 no4 Fixin To Fly
MORPHETTVILLE
Race 3 no9 Fraught With Danger
Race 7 no11 Shimano Miss
Race 8 no10 Bani Maeve

These might do a bit at odds today:
SYDNEY R1 no2 Tom's Choice
MELBOURNE R1 no6 Salvadio
BRISBANE R6 no15 Cos He Wants
ADELAIDE R7 no4 Homicide Hank