Punting 101?
 

You professionals will no doubt raise your eyes to the heavens on this one but I need to ask anyway.
Say I set myself a target of $100/day.
I back my first horse at 2/1 for $100 and lose.
Next horse is 25/10 and I still need to make my target.
Is there a formula that I can use to calculate my next bet in order to regain my losses and also make my target of $100?
Once you've stopped shaking your heads, can anyone help me?
Gnarkley

Add the $100 you lost to your next bet (Target $200)and divide by 2.5 = next bet $80.

Cheers
darky

The CORRECT bets for the odds and Target you quoted are.

Target $100----Odds 2/1------Bet $50

Target $150----Odds 25/10----Bet $60----Return $210

So out $110-----Return $210-----Profit $100.

target 1 = 100@ 2-1 lose $50
next target =100+100+50=250
target 2 = 250 @ 25-10 so next bet is $100

you can set up a spreadsheet using the usual formulas eg ....... sum=(a1+b1/c1*c4) etc etc

Read Gnarkley's post again..............the amount quoted is a $100 A DAY.............NOT per race.

Thankyou all,
I don't have much of a maths brain I'm afraid.
Gnarkley

oh yes that's right, but also he didn't say that there was MORE than one bet per day, funny isn't it right and left brained and all that, I took it as one bet per day but on reading it again I presume it's several bets per day???

Next question then is what about if you don't win that day? is it carried forward or not? i.e. you can just accept the loss for that day and start fresh every day, in which case I would suggest having a maximum amount that you are prepared to lose in any one sequence.

Hello all,
I wanted to make a profit of $100/day. I hadn't considered not making that on any given day so I guess it would actually be $100 per series of bets, if forced to carry over.
If I use darky's method, losses + target / odds I don't think the return is high enough. My outlay would then be the original $100 + the $80 following bet for a return of $200, $80 short of the target profit.(If that's right, remember no maths brain)
Now don't ask me which one the denominator is or even the name of the other one but I saw somewhere that if the odds are 25/10, you divide 10 by 25 and multiply by your target, but this doesn't take into account the outlay for this bet.
Party, your idea seems right but you got off to a bad start because I didn't explain that the target wasn't just $100 but $100 profit.
Disregarding the fact that you were given the wrong info to start with Party, how did you come to the figures on the, 'next target' line?
So at 2/1 to make the $100 profit I needed to outlay $100. Lose that and the next bet needs to profit by $200 (loss+target). Lose that and it's the target profit(100) + orignal loss(100) + last loss(????) etc.

target 1 = 100@ 2-1 lose $50
next target =100+100+50=250
target 2 = 250 @ 25-10 so next bet is $100

No matter what the odds are, how do I calculate the following bet ( taking into account the outlay for that bet ) to return my previous losses and my target profit?
I am starting to black out after all that and now I'm not sure what I wanted anymore. Does anyone know where I'm coming from or have I simply lost the plot? What am I missing?
Gnarkley

Gnarley,
I don't know whether you read my post or not, but for what you want, which I now presume is a $100 profit every time you get a winner, is the correct way to work it out.

E.G. Target divided by odds gives the bet. Lose

Target + previous bet divided by the odds gives the bet

Exactly the way I previously posted.

gnarkley, where you're going wrong is that you are thinking that 2-1 = $2 return for $1 not so of course thats even money or 1-1,

if you had $1 @2-1 you would recieve back $3 i.e. $2 winnings + your $1 stake back)

it is a mistake made by many newbies and incredibly by many old timers as well.

Yes Party, that is exactly where I have lost it.
I knew it was in that area but I had no idea what I was missing.
So let's say, if I had lost 400 and still needed to make my target of 100 I need to make a profit of $500 on the next.
Using Peterpan's formula ( many thanks Peterpan), if the next bet was at 2.9 I would need to divide 500 by 2.9 to find the bet. Approx. $173.
This makes my outlay now $573
That is where I'm having trouble;
To make $100 on a 2.1 return I need to bet $96. If that loses I need to make $196 on the next bet @ 2.5. 196 / 2.5 = 79 approx. That will return $197 approx. So I have now outlaid 96 + 79 = 175 for a return of $197 ????
I just don't get it I'm afraid.
Gnarkley

TO make $100 on a 2.1 return is 100 divided by 1.1 equals $91.

That loses so now have to make $191.

Next bet is target $191 and you say next return is 2.5 so that makes your odds to bet to 1.5. So $191 divided by 1.5 = $128 (rounded up ), so now you have $219 out in bets.
You get a win so that is 2.5 x $128 = $320.

$320 minus your bets of $219 = $101 profit. (your target).

You must remember when working to decimal odds you have to take off 1.

BUT after all that DON'T DO IT.

Thanks Peterpan,
I just dropped my young bloke off at footy and on the way back I was thinking that that might be my problem. Thanks for clearing that up.
The 'Don't do it' sounded somewhat ominous, why not?
Gnarkley

Because no matter how good you think your selection methods is and how good you go, one day it will bite you and you will blow the bank.

I was thinking of just backing the favourites in the first 3 or 4 races of the day at each meeting until I had cleared the profit for the day. With the regularity of favourites getting up in these races I thought it might be a safe route.
Over the last month I think the longest run of outs was 12.
I thought if I had a bank large enough to cover twice that number it might be sufficient.
You'd be damn unlucky if you had a run of over 20 outs, on favourites, wouldn't you?
Gnarkley

To that end, does anyone know the strke rate of favourites for the first 3 or 4 races of the day?
Gnarkley

Most of us, maybe even Peter Pan, but anyway DEFINITLY ME have made that mistake, to the cost of big $.

You are are right in the sense that most of the time it WILL work, but alas, when it doesn't you will lose all of what you have made ++++++++++

You may have a fighting chance if you stagger the selection method in some way say, Monday to Mnday, Tusday day etc etc but not really,after many 1000's of bets the result will be the same i.e. LOSS.

Now if you think of anyway that you can stagger that to the EXTREME, you just "might" take the killing losing sequence out of your lifetime. So it is still possible but alas,only by "luck"

If you want to be certain of winning there are only 3 ays:

(1) if you rae a backer, only back where you can get set at less than 100%, you may be surprised to learn that is possible many many times (ask Mark?)

or(2) LAY, where you can produce a book at say 90% so after commissions you are 5% in front

or (3) make a web site selling tips and/or ratings, and youre in!

Hi Party,
Thanks for the information. I'm not sure I follow your advice though;
only back where you can get set at less than 100%
I'm a real newbie!
I assume that the bad streak could wipe you out in just a day.
What about only betting on the first 4 races of the day and if you don't get a result from those 4 you carry over until the next day. That way the unlucky streak would be broken up over a number of days. How long can a bad streak go on?
Gnarkley

How longs a piece of string?
Years ago I once had a losing streak of 25 losses straight
Cheers
darky.