Question for Darkydog
 

darky, do you use IAS opening prices? do you dutch em or back levels regardless?

just something i've been working thats similar.

Hi party.
Yes I use IAS OPENING prices ( top 4).
I then Multiply the opening price X 1.2 and thats my MINIMUM acceptable price.
I then bet any "overs " at the original opening price ala Don Scott.

i.e OPENING $3 X1.2 = $3.60 Bet $50 @$3.60 = Nett $130

Cheers.
darky

Yes that's the same as my current project, I take it that you then back overs with IAS fixed prices IF it happens?? or do you look for any fixed price overs from anywhere? LEVEL STAKES??

Sounds a interesting one. Going by this darky or party, do you think there would be any merit in laying those are shorter than there opening quote? ie lay those .8 shorter than opening quote on BF.

A good question Thorns as only 1 can win but 4 can lose, but we need to know what is the performance for each i.e P/L for opening FAV, 2ND FAV, ETC
anyone got the stats??

e.g. Oakbank now race 3, open 12 @ 4.60, 6@$6, 8@$6 abd 2 @ 7,

so can get set on no.6@ $10 and No.8 @ $8.50c

but no8 is $9 with sportsbet and $9.50c with sportingbet and I havent checked the others but you see what I'm getting at??

A good win there for no 8, but I'm told that $15 was available on Betfair

I generally bet FIXED and alternate between IAS and UNITAB.Longer priced horses usually pay better on TOTE .
As my old mum used to say "The best rating service is the bookmakers OPENING quote".

I believe that every punter should burn that saying into their conciousness before outlaying any money on overly priced rating services.

I bet them level stakes.

Cheers.
darky

I agree darky in fact I've always said that the prices (even Pre post) ARE a ratings service. I've noticed so far that IAS first 4 usually jags the winner.

But I would like to see actual stats if anyone has em' ??

I remeber years ago someone on the othe punting forums has a method where he would target the top 4 I think from IAS and was consistently making a profit. He got pretty much laughed off teh forums being told you cant do it, but it seemed to work for him. Will try dig up that thread if I can, think he has some stats for the top x amount of selections as well.

Thorns .
Yeah I can believe it.It probably came from some deadbeat who ran their own rating service.
Cheers
darky

According to Malcolm Knowles in one of his earlier publication there is a high correlation between the rankings of the pre post market and the SP market.
Maybe not the actual price but the order in which the horses are rated. He even gives a pre post to SP conversion table and reckons it's pretty accurate.

Would you take IAS prices as being pretty spot on...or as close as you're going to get anyway?

If you want tomorrows prepost tonight (Most newspapers) go to

http://www.**************.com.au/ and click on formguides.

Cheers.
Enjay

Your right about those pre-post rankings .

The interesting stat was using the pre-post market to calculate quinella divs.

It was amazingly close to the actual TAB payout figures.

The top 5 SR in the pre-post was within 5% of the final TAB SR.
That's better than most subscription services.

Thorns, coincidentally I was just looking at that since this thread began - try PA forum search for Midweek tactic - verrrry interesting.
cheers..........Mancunian

Thats the thread I remembered. Cheers for that Mancunian. I wonder how that method goes since that was posted years ago.

I had a go on paper today - looks promising,will put in report later tonight.

Ref. "Midweek tactic"
First look - results for today, using my interpretion of the guidelines.
Basically looking at all races except 2 that only had 6 starters
Ballina - 7 races - outlay $699 return $739.20
W'bool - 7 races - outlay $699 return $722.10
If eliminating those races where the profit looked to be less than 20%
Ballina - 4 races = out $400 return $327.10
W'bool - 4 races = out $400 return $499.20
Total out $800 return $826.30
Here we go again, another promising system that may turn out to be about break even (or slightly below)
BUT - Ballina was a heavy track and I wouldn't have been putting money on.
AND - I wasn't necessarily following the rules precisely.
I got the IAS prices, to establish the top 4 selections, then Dutched those horses using S/TAB (which is the only place I've got money currently).
Its close enough to encourage another look or two to see how it performs.
May not have much time in the next few days, but will keep in touch with anything further.
Cheers.......Mancunian

I tried a search for that thread on PA but could not find it .

Would it be possible for someone to give us the page number.

Go to Horse Racing Forum. Click on search. Type in"midweek AND tactic".

Further thoughts on this as I progress with some data, at first sights it seems logical i.e. the "book" is usually
around 120% so back the first 4 only at least 20% over and you can't lose eh? eventually.

But it's starting to remind me of a plan that I used for a while with pre-post favs, i.e. overall they (PP Favs.) showed a
loss of around 10%, with an average price of (from memory) of around 2-1, so the idea was to only back em' when you
could get at least 5-2, seems logical,.......... er....... problem was I started to show an INCREASED LOT. Didn't take
too long to realise that the higher the price the lower the S/R and so the greater the LOT.

I haven't quite figured out if the case will be the same with this one but I suspect it will (unfortunately)

One thing though, using the same idea, but backing on Wed/Sat with bet fair SP & with your Min. price stipulation,
(as explained by Bhagwan)
that would take a lot of the work out of it and in a better pool may just tilt it the right way.

Thanks Petstep.

I found it.

Had a bit of a look at this yesterday, luckily still on paper.

Ipsw - Out 700 Return 402.20
M'Bdge - Out 600 Return 721.90
Canb - Out 500 Return 227.00
------------------------------
Total - Out 1800 Return 1351.10

Out of 18 races only 11 winners were from IAS top 4 (and 3 of them returned a slight loss after dutching with S'Tab). I do believe this is well below the average s/rate for IAS, so maybe it was an unusual bad day.
Anyway I may cautiously just look at their strike rate for a while before getting too excited.
And maybe match with WI6 and the ProPun free ratings for Saturdays at least.
Cheers....Mancunian

I am currently looking at a method with the top 4 and yes I think yesterday was a low SR day. The way I am doing it is only betting races where one or more of my lay selections is in the top 4, in a way to remove some of the selections to bet. So far so good from Monday to Wednesday, and currently sitting up around 10 units so far today.

Thanks for the pointer there enjay, most helpful, of course there can be a difference in the actual pre post quotes so most important that one always uses the same source!

For the record : From metro racings (including Ascot) for Sat 10 Apr
Winners ranking positions from IAS was 27 winners from 41 races = 65.8%.
(from WI6 was 21 from 41 = 51.2% - but WI6 had 11 top raters win as opposed to IAS only had 7 top raters won).
Cheers....Mancunian

Should have read "from top 4 ranking positions) sorry

The difference must be when you only bet when the fixed price (from anywhere) is at least 20% greater than the opening quote (top 4) in theory you have to win long term........... (er, don't you?)

Yep.
darky

Hi,
have you got the return on that strike rate?
Because the actual first four in the market have a much higher strike rate.
Just interested.
Thanks

on level stakes win bets - using S'Tab divs
IAS rankings - outlay (41 races x $1) = $164- return $122.30
WI6 rankings - outlay $164 - return $119.90.

Just folowing on with this one after a bit more observation. Every man and his dog knows the principle now, i.e always back overs re: you have to win overall in the end.
But what I've observed is that there is VERY little value to be had at the lower end, to the point where is useless to try really, but very good overs can often be had on betfair when you restrict it to say $8 + e.g. manytimes $12+ can be had, now of course its a different kettle of fish as the S/R is much lower, much greater patience is needed but it seems that it's got much greater potential.

I'm not sure if 7-1 ($8) is the optimum cut off or not maybe its $6 at this stage I don't know, but the principle seems sound.

So in other words say, Pro Pun Rats, or WI6, or IAS top 6, but only take $8 and above when at least 120% can be had ANYWHERE inc. Betfair.......... any thoughts?

ok, just did a working example MR today, I'm not saying its typical but it shows the potential.

R1 left with 1& 3 no1 won $9 (IAS fixed)
R2 3&5 No 3 won $8 "
R3 6,7,8 No7 won$21 "
R4 4
R5 5,10
R6 14,15
R7 3


Total out = $13 total in = $38

needless to say there will be many days when all the winners will be less than $8 or whatever limit you set, but the good days have the potential to be VERY good (I think)

Sounds good to those of us with a patience and who concentrate on the yearly goal.
I doubt whether others will go along but then thats to our advantage.

Cheers and thanks.
darky

WI6
 

So in other words say, Pro Pun Rats, or WI6, or IAS top 6, but only take $8 and above when at least 120% can be had ANYWHERE inc. Betfair.......... any thoughts?[/QUOTE]What rating service has WI6 ?

Ok winner IN 6 Smart assss, where is the mod for this kind of sheeet

My appologies Jack, I think with the aid of 2 bottles of Merlot I managed to get the wrong gist of your post.

So with a clear head the answer to your question is www.winnerinsix.com.au