3 Horse Money Management Plan
 

This plan can show good profits on the right selections targeting 3 horses a race.

The idea of this is to break even if our winner is 4.00 & less & profit if it is 4.10+

RULES - 300.00 bank divided by 30
$10.00 stake for each race.

The next day , we divide our remaining bank by 30 for the next days action.

We divide the price of any horse that is maybe 4.00 & less into 10.00
e.g.
O/L at price 4.00 would be 2.50

Deduct the 2.50 from 10.00 = 7.50

7.50 divided over 2 other horses = 3.75

If the other 2 horses are 4.10+ , we place 3.75 on the remaining 2 horses.

Example.
3 horses
3.50
4.50
9.50

10.00 / 3.50 = O/L 2.85

2.85 - 10.00 = 7.14

7.14 / 2 horses = 3.57 on each.

If 3.50 shot wins = Ret 10.00 (break even)
If 4.50 shot wins = Ret 16.06
If 9.50 shot wins = Ret 33.91
For our 10.00 O/L for the race.

If there were 2 of the 3 horses 4.00 & less.
We would divide both prices into 10.00 &the difference placed on the 3rd horse.

It can work very well using your favorite tipster where 3 horses are given e.g. RadioTAB as shown on the UniTAB site.
This has a combined SR of approx 50%

Maybe target races with 15 & less runners.
Where at least 2 of the runners are 4.10+ so as to hunt down some value in the race.

A program like Faibot or Gruss can make fractional dollar amounts on Betfair.
That way your price is locked in & the prices are nearly always better than individual TABs.
So the best value will be to use Betfair.

If one wanted to use the pre-post market, one could place all their bets at once on the TAB if one wished to go that way & hope you don't get burnt too badly if the Fav wins on too many races.

The bottom line is one should enjoy a SR of approx 45-50% with the right tipster on the day.
They often have one of their tips at double digit prices which manage to snag the odd win.

The first 4-5 races for each venue, tend to offer the higher SR of the 3 tips, for whatever reason, so its an idea to maybe target these races & leave the last half alone so as to help avoid possible long runs of outs.

The theoretical longest run of outs to expect with a 45%SR is approx 11 in a row, so be prepared.

It can be a lot of fun to use because we have 3 horses running for us instead of just the one horse.

One thing is for sure , you wont be waiting too long to snag our first winners for the day & some of the prices can be amazing.

Anther interesting approach Bhagwan. Do you think its just mind games to include the shortie rather than just back the two longest prices at levels? I ask because most tipsters will have the fav in their top 3, and we know that there is a strike rate of 30% so out of 100 races we should break even 30 times(using your plan) and should have about 20 winners from the remaining 70 races.

Last question, do you know of a bookie (outfit) that offers fixed prices every race every day? as some seem to for some meets but not others and visa versa etc.

You may be right about that , one would have to do some figures to see if that is the way to go.

It all depends on the average prices attained.

Maybe only target races with 12+ runners to get the average price up.

I feel one would have to bet to price to keep the outlays down.


I cant answer that question in relation to bookies I always use Betfair.

My concern there was that those 20 winners would have to recover 210 points just to break even overall i.e. average price of $10.10c??

maybe another angle would be to use those 3 selections as your base, but only bet if 120% of the opening price is available (pinching part of Darky's idea)

Jack
 

If dutching the first 3 another option would be to chase $100 over a series of say 5 bets to keep it safe the total % outlay for the race eg. A=4/1=20%, B=5/1=16%, C= 6/1=14% total % outlay is 50% so the outlay on A = $4, B=$3, C=$3 total outlay =$10 and if any selection wins the expected return $20 less outlay $10 = profit $10. With a level stake break even or better selections this method could be used progressively. What concerns me is that we are not going to get the prices as in the example as prices these days have been compressed. if 50% or more of your stake is outlayed relative to the return you are accepting an odds on situation. It is interesting to note that Tatachilla at the PA site backed the first 4 outlayed 80 units to return 100 for a profit of 20 units that is certainly ODDS ON. Even not using the TAB [progressively dutching the first 3 or 4 selections returns can be disappointing on some days and losses can escalate alarmingly on a bad day. I would welcome your thoughts.

Jack, facts are cold, for this plan 30 times out of 100 we would break even, we would then get 20 winners ( IF we are VERY lucky) from the remaining 70 races with a total outlay of 210 points, so we would need an average of $10.10c per winner to just break even......... sorry we are NOT going to get that, the plan cannot win (sorry Bhags)

You may have noticed i posted exactly this same situation a day before this post, i back 4 a race if i can get over $4 a selection i will back them with 3% of my bank split evenly between all runners, if under $4 i will back those to return my stake and split the remainder on the other selections, the reason as i stated before was to avoid the situation of dutching a $3 selection with a $15 this was i have plenty on my high priced winners.

If one wanted to use a progression ...
The idea of this approach, is to multiply the last losing bet by 1.50 , to work out what the next outlay will be.
Max 6 outs then restart
e.g.
10
15
23
34
51
77
Total 210.00
Have 6 banks of 210.00 = 1260.00

The idea is to hit 2 positive results in a row , so as to recover all looses.

Repeat bet if the win did not recover all losses.

If you haven't got $1260 to work with, borrow it from your Grandmother once she lands that second job.

Nice one Bhags, Granny's never really mind if you don't actually pay em back, hahhhah! I KNOW!

Shaun, same situation I'm afraid, say 100 races 30 times you break even (i.e. the fav) so presuming a 60% S/R (overall) you now have to recover 280 units on approx 30 winners (WE HOPE) so an average of Divie of $9.33, and thats JUST to break even overall,,,........ are you confident?

On those selections NO, on mine yes.

I only have a small sample but i like the way it is panning out for me i have a 75% strike rate for my top 4 with an average race dividend of $1.85

My example of a way to back 4 horses to maximise profits rather than just dutching the whole 4 or 3 as the case maybe.

Wow! Shaun, 75%@$1.85c, you have my admiration, I can't get anywhere near that. It must be the quality of the Ratings.

As i said small sample maybe just some luck, but i did make adjustments to the ratings so i hope it continues.

Here is todays races, lets see the forum curse knock me down, the race times are WA times

Never again, grrrr 2 losses 2 zero return races so far

Jack
 

Quote:

Originally Posted by partypooper Jack, facts are cold, for this plan 30 times out of 100 we would break even, we would then get 20 winners ( IF we are VERY lucky) from the remaining 70 races with a total outlay of 210 points, so we would need an average of $10.10c per winner to just break even......... sorry we are NOT going to get that, the plan cannot win (sorry Bhags)

Hi Party,
Would you explain the arithmetic of your workout ?

Morning Jack, well ,say 100 races, 3 bets per race = 300 units bet . In almost all cases the FAV would be in the tipsters top3 and we know that the FAV has 30$ S/R,............. so 30 times it will win in 100 races, we have staked roughly 1/3 of the total outlay per race to break even on the FAV.

So now we have 70 remaining races 3 bets per race = 210 we know that in 70 cases the FAV will NOT win so that takes care of roughly 70 units (taking an ave.of say $3.3) the remainer is split between the 2 remaning conveyances (level stakes) we know that about 20 of these will win (i.e. overall S/R of 50%) we have still 210 units invested, we would have to get $10.10c per winner to just break even overall.

Obviously each individual race will not pan out exactly like that, eg. one race may have $4, $6, $10 so theres 25% on the $4 shot and 37.5% on each of the others, and sometimes of course the $10 will win (roughly 1 time in about 8) conversly sometimes you may have $2, $5, and $12, so you stake 50% on the $2 shot, and 25% on the other 2 etc etc. but over time the stakes will be roughly 1/3 on each, averaged.

Jack
 

Hi Party,
Thank you for your explanatiion

One approach would be to target a race were the other 2 horses total $12.00+ once both prices are added together, after saving on the Fav.
Otherwise no bet race.

E.g.
1st-3.00
2nd- 5.00
3rd - 7.00

This would be a bettable race because the 2nd & 3rd selections add up to $12.00 in price.

If targeting the top 3 favs in the live market.

Combined SR 65%
30%
20%
15%

If our average price on the 2nd & 3rd selection is say 6.00 (12.00 combined) at 35% SR
= Ret 210.00

Saving on the Fav Ret 100.00

Total Ret 310+
O/L -----300

We have just mentioned the min possible , there is always the juicy payers in between that make up the big difference.
Just have a look at what some of those 3rd favs pay when they get up where there is a combined $12.00 total for the 2nd & 3rd Fav.

If you have some doubt about this ,start laying them & see what happens to one's bank balance.

Cheers.

Sounds good Bhagwan, though my suspicion is that the 65% S/R is including all the shorter ends of the market, as soon as you restrict to price the S/R will be more like 45%. My conclusion is that if you just used this plan occasionally when going to the races or something its ok, (yesterday would have been great) but as a long term winner, I don't think so. As far as laying is concerned well, we can lay every system ever invented and win can't we?