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Whats the odds?
My place plan yesterday, best day EVER, only backing overs 17 bets for 17 hits. The overall S/R (including unders) is 65% what are the odds of 17 hits in a row?
If anyone is kind enough to do the calculation, I would like to know the % figure for 3 outs in a row i.e. how many times in say 1000 bets will I encounter 3 losses in a row with a S/R of 65%? any help appreciated! |
Hey Party,
Hope you were using the DIABOLICAL STAKING PLAN. Re your question I think Bgahwan is your man for that. Cheers darky |
Level stakes only on that one Darky, but with the benefit of hindsight....GEE!
Bhags, how about it? |
This is absolutely impossible! 7 bets today 7 hits, thats 24 consecutive hits!
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Did you Hit?
or were you Hit? Which would then become a Bit. The theoretical run of outs for 65% SR is 7 in a row. The percentage chance of Hitting 3 successes in a row within 100 bets, is .... .65 x .65 x .65 = 27.46% The percentage chance of 3 outs in a row in 100 bets, is ... (100-27.46) = 72.54% |
Thanks for that Bhags, I understand what youve said but I'm having trouble converting that into eg. on average how many times will I get 3 losses in a row say with 100 bets.
This incredible run of placings worries me in the sense that if I can get 24 in a row then it must also be possible to get 24 LOSERS in a row isnt it? gripes that would definitly wipe me out! |
Umm.....
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Wouldn't the percentage chance of 3 outs in a row be.... .35 x .35 x .35 = 4.29% ? If it's not then I definately need another cup o' coffee :) Den |
Youve got my head spinning now, the reason I need to know is this , with a staking plan of 1,3,7 revert back to 1 after 3 losses so you accept the 11 unit loss. Yes I realise that all I'm, doing is increasing stakes overall really, but there is a mental consideration as well, eg. say you have a sequence of WLWLWLLWLWLWLWLLW,which shows a level stakes loss on the day, BUT a healthy profit with a 1,3,7, staking (were backing for the place here) So you see I need to know how many times I have to accept the 11 unit loss say in 100 bets?
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Have to agree with Dennis G on this one.
If chance of a win is 0.65 then chance of a loss is (1-0.65 = 0.35) Then chance of 3 losses in a row is 0.35 x 0.35 x 0.35 = 0.0429 = 4.29% |
so does that convert to roughly 4 times in every 100 bets I will encounter 3 losses in a row? if so then I have to recover 44 units from the remaining 88 bets to break even yes?
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Hi Partypooper,
I'd agree with that. You would have on average 4.29% total wipe outs i.e. 3 losses in a row. If you are betting a series of 1,3 & 7 units (total 11 units) this would be lost 4.29 times in 100 bets. You would need to "win" back this loss (11 x 4.29 = 47.19) over the other 88 or so bets to break even. Anything above this is pure profit! |
Mmmmmm, not looking too bad then as the S/R is 65% so 65 of the 88 are payers. Using the same formula .35x.35 = 0.1225,say 12% for 2 outs in a row, so 12 times out of the 88 we will have 7 units invested @ average div of 1.60 = 134.4 (profit of 3.4 units)
So now as I see it (averaging everywhere) there are 64 conveyances remaining of which 21 will lose so 21 times we will have 3 units invested @ $1.60 = 100.8 =+ 37.8-the 21 single losses = 16.8 in front the remaining 42 are payers @ $1.60 for a profit of 25.2 yes? so total outlay = 261 returns = 302.4 profit =41.4 units = 16.1% on turnover compared to 4% on level stakes, mmmmmmmm! |
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Mostly reliable, but the toss of a coin also produces a 50% head or tails over time, in between it can be 95% to 5% either way. What I mean is that the 3 outs can repeat itself like this: 0,0,0 1 0,0,0, 1 0,0,0, 1 etc. if you get the drift. The same goes for the win as well just like you are experiencing it at present, so it's not all bad news. Just be good boy scout!!! Good luck |
Lomaca, oooohhh! YES, been there done that,...... my thoughts are not with 100 bets more like 10,000 bets. The selection method is mechanical ,kinda,.. but based on Top raters, by an absolute PRO.
This can average 300 +place bets a week with no filters at all for 4% POT, or backing overs only, (no other filters) about 130 investments a week for a much greater result????? By the way that winning run came to an end today with the first 3 bets unsucessfull, but then recovered again to finish almost exactly on cue at 65% hits. the 1,3,7, idea TODAY ended up in front,.. but at levels 1 unit behind. |
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As long you are aware, all is well. Regarding staking? never used it and prob. never will. Fools comfort as far as I'm concerned Just using the same level stakes. Started out on a % of bank, and found the most profitable top level without destroying odds. good luck |
Hi Partypooper,
Why 1,3,7 units? Why not 1,3,8 units. My reasoning is
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Try Try Again, you have a point my only concern really was to recover the 11 units outlayed @ the average divi which is $1.60 (i.e. 11.2 units) but yes I guess its sensible to muck around with the staking to see which one fits better with the head. Using 1,3,8 we lose 48 units 4 times in 100, 12 times we would collect on the 8 unit bet so outlay = 144 collect = 153.6, makes sense!
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The number of 3 outs in a row within 100 bets is approx 4.3
35% CHANCE OF LOSING. .35 x .35 x .35 = .042875 x 100 = 4.28 |
Jack
This incredible run of placings worries me in the sense that if I can get 24 in a row then it must also be possible to get 24 LOSERS in a row isnt it? gripes that would definitly wipe me out"
Iomaca said: Just using the same level stakes. Started out on a % of bank, and found the most profitable top level without destroying odds. Have you considered perhaps having the best of both worlds by using level stakes unit of one (for example) and when a winner is struck put 50% of the winnings on the next selection and if that wins put 25% on the next selection THEN revert to one unit. Advantage could stand 24 consecutive loosers with much less money outlayed rather than the 1-3-7 or 1-3-8 concept. This should be much safer and be conducive to sleeping better in the evening would be interested to learn the POT using this 1-2-3-1 step. Over to you for consideration. |
Jack, sounds as if that would be good, in fact as the plan is in profit just about any staking plan would probably work.
Like I said, all I'm doing with 1,3,7 (or 8) is increasing stakes really over a long time I would have so many bets @ 1 unit, so many @3 units and so many @ 7 (or 8) units, all on selections with a 65% S/R. But the whole idea was mind games really. |
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