Easy Profitable lay System
 

Here is an easy laying system that anyone can use and make money.

You need to watching sky and have betfair open. Just before the last few horses are loaded (ie as late as you can), compare the lowest price shown for each horse (the lowest tote price being either untiab, nsw tab, or vic tab) and times it by 1.20 (ie add 20%). If any of the horses on betfair are available to be laid at less then this figure you will come out in the long term.

I usually stick to horses under $20

These are my figures for the last 7 days.

1033 lays for 152 winners(or accidents as Michealg calls them) and a profit after commission of 132.87 units.

I use a program to do it for me but it should work for anyone. You could also stop when your in profit for the day.

I don't quite understand the 20% part.

Supposing the prices on the animal were $1.70 , $1.85 , $1.80
Then the lowest Price would be $1.70 - yes?
Times it by 1.2 makes it $2.04 is that right so far?

And now I go and allow others to bet it against me and I give them any Price up to , and including $2.04 , is that it?

To me I think I may have messed it up some how.

Yes that is right. For $1.70 you lay up to $2.04.

You take whatever stake your happy with, ie I lay $5 on each selection that way my max loss for a race is $95 ($20 winner).

wesmip1,

I read on a forum, may even have been here, that someone claimed to have won big by betting horses on Betfair that were under the TAB's prices.

Even though you've tested it with 1033 selections for an excellent result, it's only been for a period of one week. You mention "ïn the long term" - have you tested it prior to the past week? If so, have you recorded the results?

Yes you are right I did test it over a longer time frame. Here are all my results:
This includes the testing period. It stretches back a little over 12 weeks.

Selections : 16594
Winners : 1782
Profit after commission (assumption is 5% commission) : 1535.70

My test period was 10,000 bets since then I have been betting live.

I should stress I have a custom written program that I use so you probably couldn't get all the bets on in the short time frame. The software does everything for me.

Good Luck.

I agree with wesmip.
I've also seen postings regarding anything "unders" is a good bet.
Perception and reality are two different animals.
When you're in the midst of a roll one way or another, it's easy to draw skewed conclusions, but taking a subjective step back often forms a better perspective.

I also automate my lays, which enables me to do other things rather than anxiously ruminate over every transaction, it also allows me to form a broader view of results.

Here is an example:

The last two weeks of June I trebled my bank, everything I laid (it seemed) went in my favour, I did really well.
Confidence was at an all time high, and I really could have gone silly with my staking - luckily I didn't.

The first week of July has been unimaginable.
My lays have just kept winning.
I have lost 50% of the profit of June in just three days.

I guess the moral of the story, is to know your edge, know when your results are better than expected and worse than expected, and simply count on the expected margin.

I expect to come out well ahead for July, but not after some major results against me.

Persistance and patience pay, but are sometimes hard to contend with.

Even during this downturn, I'm actually adding value my way, as my commission rate is falling quite rapidly. So when the tide turns, not ony do I have the odds in my favour, I have better odds in my favour, so the profits will be a little better than normal.

When you say sky what state tab price are you looking at as prices can be different.

All three shown. Use the lowest tab price from the three.

Easy?
 

Hi Wesmip!

I had a go!!!!. Its not easy. Maybe you might supply your custom made program to make it easier please?

Regards
Ted

Yeah I know its not easy but if I offer my program then suddenly it gets a lot harder for me to get on as well as more people start using it. Sorry, Ive got to keep my edge somehow.

Easy Method
 

Hi Wesmip1

Thanks for your reply. If you dont ask then you never get anywhere. Be happy to get it privately if thats ok. Just asking.

Regards
Ted

You could do this with an API product that interfaces with excel then create an excel sheet that imports tab prices and does the maths for you and lays the bets on betfair.

Not getting any easier..lol
 

Hi Shaun

Thanks for for suggested help... Its ok if you are IT savy and can do as you suggest but thats not me.

Suggestions to purchasing a product that I can use to do the same job please.
Or if a forum member has a similar product to share.

Regards
Ted

Gruss software

Monthly subscription of about $12 and you could use the prices from virtual Formguide

I posted this "system" Saturday morning last week. This week my program had the folllowing bets:

919 Bets for 71 winners (or accidents as Michaelg calls them). Profit after commission was 172.05 units. At $5 bets this returned $860.25 (after commission) for the week. Turnover was $4595.

Actual returns you recieve may differ due to the price you lay the winners but would have been close.

Profit breakdown per day this week:

Saturday : $354
Sunday : $338
Monday : $-17.25
Tuesday : $-79.25
Wednesday : $114.75
Thursday : $241.75
Friday : $-91.75

As you can see you don't win everyday but overall its up for the week.

Hi wesmip1,

Those results look very promising.

Thanks for your post and your win system yesterday!

I'm finding your posts extremely interesting, so best of luck and may your edge long continue!


The Schmile

I have spent today setting up an automated system for these bets using a combination of Gruss Software and the RTO from the VFG service, i am not sure how different these ods would be from sky racing or the tabs but this is the easiest for me to setup.

I will be testing this from tomorrow.

I expect the RTO fro VFG should be close (if not identical).

I suggest starting small as a bad run can hurt.

Good luck with it and congrats on setting it up.

Hi Tedblugum,
I have a sophisticated program that does the same thing.
It works a treat.
You can have it for only a grand.
Only 1 will be made available.

Have you checked to see if it would be better to lay to a fixed stake or a fixed liability

Shaun,

I lay the same amount per horse and am hoping to increase over time. Fixed liability might work.

First day of testing i only used 10c lay stakes to be sure my bot works, had some problem with Geelong with VFG i was getting no data for the races.

Total Lays 78
Wins 62
Accidents 16
S/R 79.5%
Loss -$3.70

I ran a comparison between $5 fixed stake or $100 fixed liability for todays results for me.

$5 fixed stake max price $20 -$189.15
$100 fixed liability max price $20 $190.25

Shaun,

Look at todays results and anaylse it by price range.... what do you notice ?

I suggest splitting it into the following categories:

Under $5
$5-$7
$7-10
$10-15
$15-$20
$20-$40
$40 - $100
$100+

You should see a trend in where the profitable lays are.

For instance I came out $127 in front today where as you showed a loss.

It may make you rethink your max price $20....

The $20 rule was what you have worked on.


I added the betsheet from today.

Ive opened it up a bit in the last week as my bank has increased as Ive looked at the results and slowly taken it out. My minimum price is now $7 and max is $40. I found all the shorts were just going nowhere and sitting on breakeven or a small loss after commission...

I came to the conclusion that the fav-longshot bias actually worked if you stick to this method and go for the longer priced horses. I still make a good profit in the $7-$20 range, but anythign under $7 is not worth it.

If you check your results you should see a similar pattern.

I just had a look through my account and I had 58 Bets under $20 today for a loss of $72. Yesterday I had 89 selections for a profit of $165.25.

ie these were all in the range $7-$20.

I had a look at my selections for the 7-20 range with 33 selections and showed a $4.37 loss for today so i guess our selections may be a bit different

I am still testing with small stakes but using your $5 amount up to $20 showed a loss for me today of $144 i made a change on my sheet and am taking a fixed liability of $100 also showed a loss but of only $81.

using a personal liability of $2 i was down $1.62 after comm

Strike rate today was 67 bets 54 win 13 accidents similar to yesterday of 80%

similar bad day for me under $20 (-$81.25).

Over $20 brought it back to a profit though of $4.25(less then 1 unit). I urge you to go up to $50 as you are taking advantage of the fav-long shot bias.

What was your SR today, how many runners did you have, i am wondering what different runners we have under $20 as my loss in that range was almost double yours.

I know i have only done this for 2 days but i was looking at my selections and the price range and trying to work out what was better 1) fixed stake 2) fixed liability 3) fixed payout and i found fixed liability would be better, i also looked at the price range and it may be just the selections i am producing but i found i had a better reasult with runners under $10.

My first days result would have been over $380 instead of $190 and yesterday would have been a profit of $90 instead of a loss.

I am not trying to change your approach just show you what i have seen in 2 days, maybe this will not hold up but i am going to give it a try.

This is the basic criteria i had for today
Lay to a liability of 100 units any runner that meets the rules stated on the first page but i only layed runners under $8

Selections 143
Wins 115
Accidents 28
SR 80.41%

Profit 465.75 units


I personaly was laying to a liability of $4 and made $18.59 profit after com

Shaun,

Nice work placing your own twist on it.... Very nice profit.

I hope it keeps going well for you.

Keep analysing it over time and go with whatever seems to work for you.

You know what i find funny, betfair is supposed to offer better prices yet between us we are able to lay hundreds of horses at below tote odds at 2 different price ranges.

Selections 93
Wins 73
Accidents 20
SR 78.49%
loss 83 units

Shaun, have been following this with interest, can you identify your
accidents.
Utilizing the Betfair website which lists the three TAB prices plus their own.
I ran this to-day and came up with 73 selections (62 winners / 11 losers)
My losers were:
Sun R1/4 Trinders Lane BF Lay @ 6.8
Cas R1/7 Super Geoff BF Lay @ 7.2
Sun R2/4 Flying Minstrel BF Lay @ 3.65
Cas R2/9 Wilfull Lad BY Lay @ 4.1
Sun R5/4 Red Ferments BF Lay @ 5.7
CanR4/3 Key Symbol BF Lay @ 3.55
Cas R5/2 Light Tan BF Lay @ 2.2
Graf R5/4 Lady Tingle BF Lay @ 7.4
Kal R3/4 Le Flirt BF Lay @ 5.9
Sun R9/3 Jive Queen BF Lay @2.8
Kal R5/4 Sword Master BF Lay @ 2.4
This resulted in a profit of 20.4 units (Max Lay price 7.95)
If betting to liability of $100 result was a profit of $438
As a lot of the bets are subject to " cents " at time of betting
sometimes we are on a winner sometimes a loser.
Maybe it all boils down to where you derive your price at bet time.

AUS / SCst (AUS) 18th Jul / 09:50 R1 1800m Mdn 5. Dellblu 6.4
AUS / SCst (AUS) 18th Jul / 10:20 R2 1000m 2yo 10. Snip n Duck 3.1
AUS / SCst (AUS) 18th Jul / 10:55 R3 1000m 2yo 4. Flying Minstrel 3.35
AUS / Seym (AUS) 18th Jul / 11:05 R2 1200m 2yo 5. Invincible You 7
AUS / Graf (AUS) 18th Jul / 11:10 R1 1600m Mdn 2. Rodeo Playboy 7.2
AUS / Cast (AUS) 18th Jul / 12:00 R3 1400m Mdn 3. Eumeralla Quest 4
AUS / SCst (AUS) 18th Jul / 12:05 R5 1200m Hcap 4. Red Ferments 6.4
AUS / Graf (AUS) 18th Jul / 12:20 R3 2350m Hcap 11. Pankratov 5.9
AUS / Cast (AUS) 18th Jul / 12:35 R4 3800m Stpl 3. Key Symbol 3.55
AUS / SCst (AUS) 18th Jul / 12:40 R6 1000m CL1 9. Tamose 7.6
AUS / Canb (AUS) 18th Jul / 12:45 R4 1900m Hcap 3. Zate 3.1
AUS / Cast (AUS) 18th Jul / 13:10 R5 1400m Hcap 2. Light Tan 2.26
AUS / SCst (AUS) 18th Jul / 13:15 R7 1200m CL2 7. Stallone 7.8
AUS / Seym (AUS) 18th Jul / 13:25 R6 1300m Hcap 2. Overtake 3.15
AUS / Cast (AUS) 18th Jul / 13:45 R6 2000m Hcap 5. Blevics Belle 3.6
AUS / Cast (AUS) 18th Jul / 14:20 R7 1200m Hcap 1. Starshot 2.58
AUS / SCst (AUS) 18th Jul / 14:25 R9 1400m CL1 3. Jive Queen 2.9
AUS / Canb (AUS) 18th Jul / 14:30 R7 1280m CL1 2. Paramount Pete 7
AUS / Kalg (AUS) 18th Jul / 15:25 R5 1400m Hcap 4. Sword Master 2.5
AUS / Kalg (AUS) 18th Jul / 16:05 R6 1100m Hcap 3. Wocket In A Pocket 5.8

Hi Shaun,

Please excuse my ignorance, but do you need something other than the software mentioned above to enable this type of betting? If so what is it and how would one go about it?

Very interesting thread and any help would be appreciated.