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More smoke and mirrors to the test

OK, not particularly knocking anyone here, just trying to inform fellow systemites of the FACTS,

just doing some research on a new WIN idea, I have 1300 results to check and have only gone back 318 races so far, but the trend is obvious: (bear in mind there are no filters in place at this stage)

318 bets

Returns BET FAIR SP = $304 (after 5% commission)

Returns BEST TOTE = $ 308

All selections were opening favs. below $3

I think you should be able to evaluate some bull dust from that???????

Quote:

Originally Posted by partypooper

LIKE WHERE IS THE 20% Better odds?????????

SO......... just about to submit the same results to at least 9 other forums.........

any reply "BETFAIR" (or is it Bet Fayre")

Betfair SP odds are generally not much different to any TAB odds,but unless you are desperate (or desperate to make a point) why would anyone bother with the SP???

Betfair prices need to be taken with a grain of salt as the price I get is probably going to be differnt to the price you get. I might get $2.00 and you might get $2.20 all within 30 secs of each other.

As far as people using tab prices and assuming 20% or whatever that is the biggest joke ever. I have seen horses start at under $3.00 on the tab and over $5 on betfair, and I have also seen it the other way round. If your going to bet on betfair use their prices for testing. And don't use the averages as you will rarely get the weighted average anyway. If you don't collect your own prices then you are walking around in the dark testing against any average prices.

No one ever said they were 20% on all selections, once you get over the first few favs there prices are consistently better.

if that is the comparison between best tote and betfair i know where i would rather have my money, at least with betfair your only restriction is getting the money on not being restricted by a half wit bookie only interested in keeping his losing customers.

Good luck posting to PA.
I just got my "Infallible "taken off because some muffin complained.
Gees some of their posters just cant see a good thing.Ho Ho.

my actual win divs for $1 over last few months net of bf commission -

bf $532.42
uni $440.90

average win divy $8.32, & these are not SP

fairly clear that betting the shorter end of the market is probably not going to get you the 20%+ premium, but betting the prices I do would be absolutely insane to not be using Betfair

Gee, sorry to all, that was very strong Merlot hee hee!

But it was a test BFSP V BEST TOTE, as the bets have to be on well b4 racing with this particular plan.

party, do you think betting options like best tote etc would be around without competition such as bf?

more the merrier is say but isnt the reality, as other have mentioned, how long will you be getting 'best tote' once your account is regularly in the green??

all sounds like a bit more 'smoke & mirrors' to me!! ;-)

Stugots, you have a good point there, I can't remember how long Maxi divi has been around but I think its longer than Betfair??? any one know for sure.

Your other point could be true as well, my bets are spread between various "family members" who also have accounts with a several outfits, so it would be pretty hard to pin it down. (4 comps in the house as well)

I have one place plan though that has hovered around 4% POT for 5 years +($100 bets) and no problem with the accounts (up to now)

i think one thing we all could agree on is that were are definitely much better off now than we were a just a few years ago as to the prices we can obtain if we want to put a bit of work in, & that competition for the punters $'s can only be a good thing.

tabs? other than a fun bet or 2 at the pub now & then, i dont remember the last serious bet i had with one

Give it a few years because unless betfair increase there pool sizes to a good level that is all you will have, i personally would love 1 tote

the next generation of punters will take to bf & similar products like the proverbial fly to dog u know what

why 1 tote Shaun??, the second those in control had achieved that frightening feat commission rates would be going only one way - up!!

Yeah thats the only problem i would agree, but it would be great midweek to drop 2k on runner and not have the price drop like a lead balloon

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun

Yeah thats the only problem i would agree, but it would be great midweek to drop 2k on runner and not have the price drop like a lead balloon

fair enough, one can only dream i guess of Aussie racing with Honkers sized pools:)

Stugs, had to eat humble pie today as one of my selections PR5 Boogie Business

got up at $8.10c (BOB) and paid $11+ Bet fair SP, so there you go, but I have to say very unusual @ that price as my method is based on Late Mail Selections!

Stugots,

Why do you think that TAB would increase their commissions ? I think that one tote isn't about ONE tote , but rather one comingled pool.

Personally, and it is also the opinion of lot of people that I speak with, the options and choice for punters ends at about $250 bet. Try to get anything larger then that on and see what choice you have. This is so well documented by MANY serious punters. You will most likely have a choice of closed accounts, restricted betting products, reduced odds, rejected bets, reduced bet size. Choices ? Its all just crap that works for a $10 weekend warrior. Its much harder to do with bigger bets. Forget about the claims of corporate that they will take anything on . LOL Have you seen the small print from Tom W. ???? web site? The select clients he takes on for good money AREN'T certainly getting best fluck , or best tote or anything like that! They get fixed price that isn't at ALL that generous.

I have written something about this before, what most people think is a choice is an illusion. Lets say that you operate a $50 test system. You have gotten good results shopping here and there and everywhere. Now you are ready to escalate, and really start punting not for fun (no such thing) but to make a living which is what all of us want to do. You start betting $1000, all of a sudden your bets which would have been excepted at $7 for $50 without a problem, are reduced to $250 and they tighten the price to $6 or worse. All of a sudden your 'cream' has gone sour, because you can't get it and so the results you HAD when testing can't be replicated ! Start punting with serious money and most of the methods that people employ will not be able to be replicated. (I don't mean any disrespect referring to seriousness of anyone's punting) What about a longshot system, like those that are being 'offered' here? You think that you have a choice ? You think that you can get set for $100 at $70 ? May be once. Win twice like that and they will cut you or close the account. Put that on any of the TAB's and your div will be halved. That is why Aus Tote, and Typhoon pools all pulled out! No one serious enough COULD BET WITH THEM ! Their prices were always better , sure if you bet cents not dollars !!! Stick a $100 bet on anything in those pools and you made a new favorite. On a small scale this is exactly the problem most larger punters face. Fragmentation of the overall pool size doesn't serve almost anyone !

Its a simplistic view, and sure you could have 10 accounts and bet $100 with them all. Good luck managing this because not all will have that premium price ! Unfortunately those that will oppose this view will be those that I wish the best of luck and good fortune. I want them to be successful shopping around ! Why ? Because sooner rather then later I will be proven right, because Its a fact !

One comingled pool would instantly eliminate the Bookies 'stealing' revenue from the TAB, (more money for the industry - supposedly) as all the bookies would just start dumping most their risk back in the pool anyway. You would still have choice - Fixed price, Early markets, Best fluck, Betfair, Tote plus 5% or what ever on the corporate sites. They would love it as there won't be any surprises, like unitab dropping their com and making them payout much more then they anticipated. I actually think that the bookies (those that stayed in business) would breathe a sight of relief and might be a bit more adventurous with their fixed products.

There would still be competition between the TAB's because they get paid based on the amount that they placed into the pool, so they might give incentives more freely, to medium punters if not just through their corporate arms like luxbet and centerracing. They will be still 3 - 6 different TOTE entities that they are now each of the states has their own gov. controlling it. Betfair will still be a major competitor to keep the com's stable.

What makes you think that they cant all just put up their commissions now ? Especially as they don't need to agree and aren't bounded by any agreements.

Fragmentation of the punting dollar is bad, the more choice (thinner spread) the money is the less REAL choice there is. HK is huge , because they attract the right investors with that product. That can only happen with large enough pools. If you were to comingle just the 3 main totes (plus their already comingling partners) you might have something like $200,000+ win pool on a normal country race. May be $1 mil + on a metro race on a Saturday. This would start drawing out punters from the wood work. The size would be probably even larger then that due to the corporate dumps. Then watch the overseas investments come in ! It will take a while, but they will come. Stability of the price is what will draw them in and the punting product freequency.

A lot of the bullshist would be able to be let go , managing 5 family members accounts in order to get a bet on ( as one forum member eluded to somewhere here), the frustration of being cut down, back or rejected. The absolute devastation when the tote you chose has the lowest div and so on. The increased stability in the price will allow punters to punt not manage accounts ! That is the real problem. Ofcourse it can be done, but it would just be great if you saw a horse and said yep I will bet on that and pressed a button and KNOW that you would get a fair price.

Works in HK, they have no corporates ! Well, we can't do that here, they have that good gov. there that does what it wants ! But we can certainly reduce the fragmentation of the product being offered with one tote pool.

Just my thoughts.

Michal

PS I also forgot to mention that Betfair has a speciall rate for those that become too sucessfull. Its called Premium Charges ! See how fast the bouble bursts when that gets applied and see what choices punter have then !

PSPS Party that $11 winner you missed out on, are you sure that you would have got ALL your bet on at that price ? Was that price available at the time that YOU wanted to bet ? or was it the last few bucks of the desperados trying to pinch a few bucks at the start of the race??? and if you used the SP would have your bet in that 'pool' still produced the same div ?

Michal,
Excellent post and I agree with everything you have said.
I have been place betting daily with some success for quite a few years now and I use 2 tabs placing half my bet on each, which gives me a good average price. I would use 3 tabs but do not have the time as I bet very late.

I started a while ago to use a corporate and was getting my normal results and everything was fine.
This went well for a few weeks but then I was cut back on my bet size, and remember I place bet only and my bet size is in the hundreds only.

Basically as one well know corporate wrote to a few successful punters they only cater to recreational punters.

Fact of life if you constantly win week in week out the corporates don't want you even if you only bet in the hundreds.

One large tab would make my life a lot easier, and please no people post about the tab takeout.........just check the percentages the corporates work to on the midweeks, sometimes up to 160%.

Those that shop around are in for a rude shock in the future because the big UK firms are buying up all the Aus books, and you think our books restrict you, wait till these guys take over.

Peterpan, who do you currently use for your bets?

Have you tried http://www.dynamicodds.com/

tab's being the easy tax grab that they are for state govts, the day they once again have a monopoly on the punters dollar is that day takeouts will increase across the board.

anyone seriously think the opposition to bf was because of concerns for an increase in dodgy behavior at the track?? please, its all about how much they can fleece out of our pockets & why debates such as those currently re the pokies may be worthwhile & have gotten certain people elected, but will no doubt be shelved asap (although i certainly hope this doesnt happen & they limit the horrible things).

never have & doubt I ever will defend a corporate bookie & as i alluded to in rely to partys post, i believe alot of their products are 'smoke & mirrors', but some competition is better than none.

are products such as bf perfect? absolutely not, but i shudder at the thought of going back to tab only betting.

lastly getting matched for $250 or more on a $20 shot at Echuca on a Sunday might prove a challenge but on most popular meets it is not.

Hi Stugots,

I havent been around punting all that long, only about 12 years or so. How many times hase the takeout risen in that time ? This is a honest question as I dont know? What was it in the 90s ? What was it in the 80's ? Anyone know ?

Look at the good ol USA, they rip the guts out of the punter so badly that they dont have a racing industry anymore. They killed their cash cow. Its all privatised and overtaxed.

The UK, from what I can see is just a shambles. Is it not ? Its all privatised as far as the betting agencies are concearned. Again I dont know so I will be happily corrected. I know that they are buying our corps and turning them into .... god knows what !

HK has a monopoly, infact their Gov has a monopoly and even they can see that the best way to keep things ticking along is to give people a hope of winning . That means some people actually will, most wount but all have a chance.

I would think that the same logic would apply here ? Surely ? I again ask the same question when the TAB had a monopoly untill a few years ago was their take out rampant ? What is stoping the govs puting the rates up now ? Certainly isnt betfair ! most of those betting there look at the bookies and tote for what a price should be, and then its simply supply and demand that sets the price. The corps only pay what the Totes show. Where is the competition that is stoping them from doing it now ? Infact they probably have a cause to do it now more then ever. Their takeout is droping as the punters dollar is spread thinner and thinner !

Im happy to have this discussion, as Im sure that others will have their own opinions.

Michal

Great post there Michal, to answer one point, regarding Boogie Business, yes that is the question hence my title of smoke and mirrors, mind you I doubt that my $50 would have altered it that much.

Peter Pan, I also am mainly a place bettor invariably $100 bets, I manage to eke a small profit, but a few years ago I tried to up the ante with fairly aggressive staking, plan I can't quite remember what the bet size got up to but they didn't close my account, they didn't have to; cos my small profit disappeared. I regrouped and reverted back to $100 bets and "presto" back in the black (after a while) my conclusion was that even my relatively small bets found their way into the pools somehow; enough to affect the divvies?

As far as spreading it around is concerned, when best tote is not available, why not just use Sportsbet Country best ( i.e. best of NSW&Supertab) half your stake and Unitab half your stake to arrive at the best possible average?

Hi Michal, cant help you with figures re tab takeouts other than to say I understand they have fallen marginally on most products over the last 10-15 years in line with the entry of corporates to the market & also probably due to the ever increasing revenue stream into state govt coffers from the pokies bonanza.

I do recall that up until entry of the corporates the NSW Tab, with the greater share of turnover, did have the highest takeout rates on most betting products, & among the circles I moved in was generally loathed.

What I think will be interesting to watch is the fallout from any pokies regulation. State Govt’s being the bottomless pits they are when it comes to spending money, will not just forgo any revenue loss from these little monsters, so baring some sort of compensation at the Federal level, they will turn to the mugs that live under their jurisdiction – I doubt the TAB’s will be immune from the tap on the shoulder from finance/treasury.

Anyway, interesting times, just happy to have options where to place my bets. Now if I could only have the same when it comes to my weekly shopping – oh wait I do! Coles OR Woolies!:)

Quote:

Originally Posted by stugots

Now if I could only have the same when it comes to my weekly shopping – oh wait I do! Coles OR Woolies!:)

Don't you have Aldi where you live?

Cheers

Quote:

Originally Posted by stugots

no, whats an aldi?

You want the long or the short answer?

waiting ............

Ok, the short one then.

It's a German supermarket chain specializing in selling top quality for less.
Only drawback is they don't carry every item a Coles might.

They been around the eastern states for a few years now.

nah, not up my way, got a few iga's but thats about it, appalling situation really but thats for another forum:)