Place Method?
 

Here's a Place system I've been looking at but unfortunately not betting, however will do so from today.

On the Don Scott page on the R & S website there are ratings for each horse's performance over the past 12 months. I've been monitoring the horse with the highest points and if it's last run was within the past 11 days (this information is shown in the previous column) it then becomes the selection.

Last month I've recorded the four days for the period 25/09 to 29/09. There were 38 selections for 27 placegetters for a TAB return of $59.90.

Last Monday to yesterday there were 10 selections for 4 placegetters for a return of $15.90. Some of the divvies have been huge, one being $13. Another double-figure selection ran fourth.

Win Betting produced around a 5% POT.

If anyone's interested today's selections are:

Ballarat
8/6

Hawkesbury
2/8
6/7

Rocky
3/1
6/1

I've omitted Rocky 4/9 because only two horses of the 13 runners have had a race start.

I'll watch that with interest Michaelg, place betting being my main thing, only a small sample there but looks impressive, possibly the recent run makes the difference ey?

Hi Party,

I ran these for a while and it's really good for place the S/R varies it gets some good priced ones which keeps it alive.

Don't bet it for win, occasionally it snares a big winner but then it whittles it away back to negative unless you can stand betting for the win and stop after a big winner.

Good luck

Ps I can send you the results if I can find them, otherwise I have to run it again.
Cheers

Thanks Lomaca, sounds better all the time, if you find them I'd like to take a gander, lumbasakabayo att hott male dott comm

lomaca, if it's possible can you also send them to me?

The address is mglfyl at primusonline dot com dot au

Today's only selection so far (H'bury 2/8) ran second paying $2.70.

This sounds good as its based on sound principles.
Cheers
darky

Thanks michaelg.
 

You are something. Simple systems that do the business.

Nice winner in Ballarat $13.50/$3.50 NSW tab
Well done
Wish i would have seen it earlier
Cheers

Yes, it was a very good day - pity I didn't back them for the Win. Still, I can't complain.

Three placegetters from five selections for a return of $8.10, and two winners for a return of $16.80 - not too bad.

hi michaelg
the filter "last run was within the past 11 days"
is that regardless of how the horse performed in that run?
i would have thought how it rated that run (say compared to its best past 12 months) would have more bearing
cheers

Hi, kumite.

Yes, it's regardless how the horse performed in that run. I haven't looked at any filters apart from the 11 days gap because the results in the testing period were so strong. Of course someone may think of a rule/filter that improves the results.

Yes, one can easily assume that run had more bearing than the 12 month period. But I don't really know how the rankings are calculated - maybe whoever does the calcs make no distinction from a race run 11 months ago against a race run last week, or if the more recent the race then the higher it is viewed which is consequently factored into the calculations?

From tomorrow I'll identify those selections that placed at its last start. Interestingly, the two winners today placed at their previous start, but I'll also be betting on the unplaced ones because I might miss some good priced placegetters.

Time will tell...

where do i find the don scott ratings on the r &s website??
not familiar with the site. thanks in advance..

michaelg - thanks again for another exciting prospect - can't wait to see how it also performs on Metro meetings.

luv2bet - From the R & S home page, click on Racing Today
Under Racing Today on the left hand column select Free Daily Stats
to the right hand side of each venue there are 4 small icons, the first is a horse, but the one to select is the third one which is like a sheet of paper.
The column BRR is for best race rating (I think) to the left of that is 12m and this is the column we're after. This is the 12m Rating figure, (again, I think).
DLS = Days since Last Start.

I'm pretty sure this is it - I'm certain someone will correct it if its wrong.

Cheers......Mancunian

Mancunian, you are correct with your instructions.

Unfortunately I won't be posting today's selections. I had a virus in my computer and after two and a half hours have only now fixed it (with a lot of luck). In fact I phoned a computer repairer but cancelled the oppointment a few minutes before he was due to arrive - saved a few dollars.

Mancunian, re Metro tracks - when I tested the method on Sat 18 Sept it performed very well.

thanks very much mancunian, got it no worries..
michaelg, are there any avenues you havnt explored??
love your work, always an interesting read. thanks

Slight amendment - BRR = Base Run Rating

Heres a little tip when using the 12m column.

If one clicks onto the 12m header in R & S , it will sort the whole column out in ranking order, therefore making it easier to get your selections. & less chance of error.

The DLR (Days Last Raced ) is to the left of this .

That interactive site is realy quite amazing , especially when you know that it's free.

Thanks for the tip, Bhagwan.

As you say, it almost eliminates the chance of making an error, and also saves a lot of time.

Today's selections are:

Gold Coast
2/1*

Moonee Valley
2/1
4/11

Morphetvile
1/6*

Rosehill
4/10*
8/8*

Toowoomba
1/1*
6/2*
7/2

Townsville
1/6*
3/5*
4/7

Yarra Valley
3/5*

I'm betting them to Place only.

michaelg,
I find a good filter for various systems can be the unitab ratings. A selection must be within 2 points of top rated horse. having used this yesterday would of elimated 4 losing bets and only 1 winner.
good luck with it,

luv2bet,

lomaca has began to analyze the results over the past few months, and is continuing to do so.

Backing every "raw" selection (there have been 1811 of them since 19/04/10) would have produced a very small profit with each-way betting, comprising of a profit on Win but a loss on Place. So it looks promising, and with filters/rules it might turn ot to be successful.

For example, lomaca has discovered that omitting last start winners would have improved the Win results, but broke-even with Place, which is an improvement.

I've e-mailed lomaca with the following information:- if a selection's "placed-points" from its last two starts had single figures, then over the past two days there were 10 selections for one winner of $3.30, and three placegetters for a total return of $4.44.

However, if the "placed points" came to 10 points or more, there were eight selections for three winners totalling $21.30, and six placegetters for a total return of $13.40.

We'll see if anything good comes from it, providing lomaca's data base can identify the amount of "placed-points".

Lov2bet, judging on last start winners, and placed-points from the last two days results it would seem that the method doesn't do all that well with horses that are fancied in the market, however I'll still look at your suggestion about the Unitab ratings.

michaelg,
If his data base cant calculate the 'placed points' maybe it could calculate a minimum acceptable price, ie has to have sp of >$4.
are those figures that you mentioned based on best tote prices or from one of the totes?
cheers

luv2bet, the results are based on only one TAB.

lomaca has contacted me and suggested filters that would have shown a good profit for win and place betting.

1) No Maidens
2) No NTD races.
3) No last start winners
4) Max days of 10 since last start.

There was fifth, but looking at my results it eliminates too many races so I'll omit it for the moment, but will identify it with the selections to see how it goes. This filter says that the selection must have more than 2 points in the 12 Months ratings than the second horse.

With the 4 filters it reduces today's selections from eight to one. It is:

Sun Coast R8 no.1

michaelg
sunshine coast race 8 no 1 has a 12m of 29. there are a number of other horses with a higher 12 rating.. is this right

Luv2bet, you're right.

My mistake - it's number 4. It's $17 in the pre-post market.

Please ignore filter 4 - I misread lomaca's e-mail. I must be getting getting old.

Well done Michael,

Great work and I do appreciate the time you put in and the worth of your posts well done!!

Cheers
Twodogs

Thanks, Twodogs.

The selection won, paying $9.20 and $3.40. Thanks must also go to lomaca for coming up with the filters.

Out of interest, from the seven non-selections (those that the filters eliminated) there were two winners totalling $8.50, but three selections totalling $4.70 for a loss of $2.30.

Unfortunately there are no selections today.

Today's selections are:

Hamilton
7/11*
8/11*

Taree
4/7
7/4*
8/11

Townsville
5/8

* = 2.5 points gap between top and next horse in the 12 Months ranking.

Have you looked at when the 12 month rating is also the Base Rating? Im thinking that horses in their best form may prove to be under value. Any thoughts?

Raven, yes I did some time ago, and also with the fave in D.Scott's market, but neither showed promise for each-way betting.

However, this was over a very short period of time. Now that you mention it I might have another look. Are you suggesting they might be a filter?

If so, the top-rated horse in the 12 Month rating and also the BRR rating quite often are not very high in the market, and this might eliminate a good-priced winner/placegetter, but its still something to look at.

Michaelg,

Thank you very much for opening my eyes to the usefulness of the 12 month Don Scott rating on R&S. I had played with the R&S weight ratings previously, but had not noticed how good the 12 months rating seems to be as an assessment of class.

Your current use of this 12 months figure, filtered by 11 or fewer days since last run, may or may not produce long term POT (we all still hope it does, of course). Nevertheless, I think you have proved the worth of the 12 month rating. Perhaps other filters may produce better POT. I am playing with taking all horses within 2.0gs of the top rating, and then applying filters such as exactly 14 days since last run, or a pattern from a horse's last spell which matches its previous successful racing pattern – e.g., if its previous campaign pattern was x088312, then I would wait until 4th up next time.

Again, thanks heaps for the insight into how to make the most of the R&S ratings.

Jackact

Hi, Jackact.

Hoping you are successful with it, in spite of yesterday's dismal results.

There were no winners or placegetters from yesterday's six selections. Hopefully it was just one of those days...

Today's selections are:

Ascot
3/4
4/2 (3.5 points gap between the next selection)
7/4
8/10

Bendigo
8/3

Gawler
5/3

Hi Michaelg.

I have been following with interest.

Just wondering why Bendigo mR 9 # 9 8588 LADY PAMELA does not fit the bill. ???

Cheers Enjay.

Hi, Enjay.

It has equal points with no.15 which is currently the TAB fave.

Interestingly, you have probably noticed D.Scott has priced it at $701, and it is $50 in the Tele market. It makes one wonder how the 12 Month rankings are calculated, especially as you have pointed out that its placings from its last four runs is 8588. It must have been running in high-classed races.

It'll be interesting to see how it goes.

Another bad day yesterday. From the six selections there was one winner of $4.40 and three placegetters for a total return of $4.50.

Two selections today:

Gold Coast R6 no.3
Seymour R5 no.4.

A good day - both selections won for a return of $9.40 for the Win and $3.20 for the Place.

Since Sunday there have been 15 selections for four winners for a profit of $8.00, but a loss of $3.90 for the Place.

Today's selections are:

Canterbury
7/5

Goulburn
1/3

Ipswich
4/3

Moonee Valley
3/6
6/7

From yesterday's five selections there were no winners, but two placegetters for a return of $7.40

Today's selections are:

Ascot
2/22
8/13

Ballina
7/13

Dombeen
6/1

Dubbo
5/4
6/8

Flemington
6/4

Newcastle
4/8

Rosehill
8/2

Toowoomba
1/7

Taralgon
5/2

There are quite a few huge outsiders.

Here is a place staking approach that can work well on the right selections.

$100 Bank.
First bet 1 unit.

Bet increases to 2 units after a success & reduces by .50 unit after after a loss.
Example.
1.00 w
2.00 L
1.50 L
1.00 w
2.00 w
2.00 ect.