Want to monitor a system Automatically?
 

If anyone wants to monitor their systems automatically then give me a yell. I'll set something up for you if you provide the rules and they are at least showing less then a 5% loss over the life of my database.

Whats this about wesmip? As in something that will automatically find the days selections for you? It does get tedious manually trying to run few a few systems at once. Or is it to run system rules through your database to determine if they are profitable?

Today I decided to align the rules of my 2 main selection methods, now they are identical bar the major "angle" rule, as this helped me sift through the contenders in minutes (and reduced the amount of bets too).

Raven,

Yeah I would put up your selections on the web every day so you can monitor them (mainly to save you time).

Would work well for me, as I usually only bother with Saturday racing.

Here are the plans Im looking at:

1) Consider only races less than 2000m
2) Consider only horses with less than 20 career starts
3) Must have at least 3 career wins
4) Must have less than 56kg before any claim
5) Aged between 3yo and 6yo

Days between runs:
6) Quick back up: Raced in the last 8 days, OR
7) Freshen up: Raced between 28 to 70 days ago.

These are very simple to apply, and using the Sportsmans Chartform, I can list the contenders in minutes now. Before each system had their own elimination rules & all slightly different. But as I say, I've concentrated on Sat only up till now as well.

The On-Pace rule:
8) Horse must have been in the first 4 positions to the turn/400m last start, AND was in the first four positions to the turn/400m at one of its previous two starts.

OK, wesmip, Im not sure if you can automate this final rule, personally i use it as a guide. But you could just list all propable contenders & I make a final decision about whether or not they are on-pacers. **** pert form & R&S form guides have this info so can be found easily.

Yesterday, I eliminated Mascareri under this rule, 7th at turn last start, 5th at turn when 1st up. But I backed The Fugitive in Mlb even though he was 6th at turn last start. I could convince myself he was an on pacer based on his 1st up run & last prep. Swings & roundabouts I hope.

cheers

Raven,

I'll have it up and running with the first 7 rules soon. Have you got an email address I can send you the info for seeing the selections.

I don't currently have the position in running for previous starts so can't do rule 8 but i'll see if I can find something that works instead. Also I'll email you the back tested results of your base rules.

You can email me at psmiffy79@aol.com if you don't want to put your email on here.

Hey guys

wesmip are you using GTX?

I only ask because that's what I use & it can do similar stuff with a module called "Race day auto selector" which I find an absolute breeze. I use another part of the program "User horse flags" to automatically mark the selections that result from rules. I can also group various single selection rules into one group rule that runs all the rules across the days loaded races.

The only pain I have now is that I have to wait till 9am every morning to download the late file which has all the early divies & jockey info from the TAB's. Once that's loaded I can then run my rules (Some of my rules tie in with early prices) Then the real pain is waiting for the NSW TAB to upload all the form guides so I can access individual previous races (Something I have found invaluable in assesing a field when I can see previous runs a horse has had)

If I could do all that the day before I could almost set & forget with an auto betting program. Almost!

Anyway, just thought I'd ask as I was curious to see if there are other programs that do things similar to GTX.

Cheers

iPunter,

Thanks for asking. But no its not GTX, its a custom written program.

GTX is a good package but very expensive unless your already making a good profit and can justify it.

Nice one, sounds like a pearler!

I think up to now I've been about break even at best with GTX purchase. However the more I learn on here & through reading as much as possible I am slowly starting to make it pay for itself.

Best thing I've learned is that the program itself won't automatically earn you a quid, but having the ability to sort through loads of info to trim down to a viable race or selection list is great, the earning comes in when you then grill those races & selections manually & really pick the eyes out of them. Finding value is a big part of it too from what I've learned in my limited experience.

I had a nice little find with Ebbing yesterday at Hobarts 7th race. After becoming a selection via one of my systems it only became totally obvious to me after grilling the field & really studying that runners form (For me that means looking at replays of runners where possible, a HUGE task if I hadn't already narrowed down my choices). At $41 Ebbing was the value for me & thankfully I got on him with confidence, I never would have found that if I had to do all my selections manually.

Anyway, good luck with your efforts mate & thanks for the reply.

Do you have an email addy we can send through the systems to. I believe I
have 5 systems which I use. It takes about 2 hours to sort out the rules which I only apply to Saturday races. Any catches here?

no catch
 

Vortech,


you can email me at psmiffy79@aol.com

There is no catch (ie no cost). If I can do the rules for you I will do the selections for you every day.

Hi wesmip1.

I was wondering whether you could let me know the fate of $30 plus Australian horses on Betfair for the past few years.

Basically I am wondering whether laying one or all horses over say $30 would be profitable long term. Maybe the lowest price that's closest to (but above) $30, or $40, $50 etc.

I had my bot set to lay one random runner between 30-50 today and it came up with 22 winning lay bets but I'm sure one accident would stuff it up and more than one would be just crap to say the least.

Wes,

Not sure if you can test it but what about-

Unitab top rater

19 race starts or less

last four starts unbroken by spell (90 day)


Would be keen to see the results for races that dont have more than one horse with less than two race starts but again not sure if you can test that.

Cheers.

I have 6 months data but it confirms over $30 on betfair is suicide.

Laying all selections over $30 ended up with 23034 selections and if you layed at the available odds you would have paid out 25992. Approx a 10% loss before any commission is taken into account.

Over $100 showed 5773 selections and you would have paid out 6431 before commission is taken into account.

Laying the longest priced runner in the race (min $30 price) showed 7181 selections (or races) and a payout of 8840 before commission is taken into account.

I played around though and found a profitable method for you if you can stomach it and have a deep bank.

You can use unitab ratings or cp ratings. cp is available at r and s neurals.

Stick to those which rank at least 14th or worst in each of these and stick to laying horses above $80.

This had 791 lays for 1 winner at $90.

Obviously one winner could make it bad though so I wouldn't be doing it.

Thanks for that wesmip1. I thought there was a reason I haven't laid any of these in the past, lol. I certainly don't fancy laying anything above 80.

Try this laying approach that does work.

RULES
Target all horses in Barrier No.3

Must be in top 5 TAB Nos. after scratchings.
e.g. if a scratching we replace it with the one underneath

Must be priced 5.50-9.80

They very rarely ever get up.

You wont find many at each venue, usually 1 or 2 qualifiers

Bet .6% of bank flat stakes.

Stop betting for the day if we get bit 3 times on the day.

Also must have 7+ runners.

I had in my db 630 selections for a 537.10 outlay on winners. It had a strike rate of 12%.

So yes this is a good laying plan as it is showing a profit.

Just did a quick look through the barriers and you could also include barrier 4. But that is the only other one worth considering as barriers 1 and 2 both showed a loss for laying.

If you include barrier 4 you get the following :

1270 selections for 154 winners (12%) paying out 1095.50. Assuming 5% commission you would have made 118.70 units profit. Close to 9% profit.

Most of the profit came from the top two tab numbers. So if we restrict it to top 2 only:

524 selections for 58 winners(11%) paying out 412.30. at 5% cmission you would have made 88.40 units profit.

This is over 6.5 months.

Added one extra filter of top 4 avg prizemoney and you get:

332 selections for 32 winners(9%) paying out 227.90. at 5% cmission you would have made 89.10 units profit.

So new rules are:

Barrier 3 or 4
Top 2 tab numbers
Top 4 avg prizemoney rank
Price between 5.50 and 9.80 on betfair
and field size 7+

Good Luck

sorry Dale just realised I missed this post.

I had 3294 selections for a return on betfair of 3299.85


Wasn't sure if you wanted to bet or lay these so didn't dd any extra filters.

I added the extra filter with only 1 horse or less with less then 2 race starts.
It had 2093 selections for a return on betfair of 2102.55

Thanks Wesmip for doing all that.

Its all very interesting.

Thanks Wes,

Was looking to bet,interesting that the race filter didnt change things at all,safe to say it could be ignored with this one.

If youve got the time the one filter i would look to add would be to only consider those with 11 to 19 race starts,this should take care of the maidens,2&3yos i was worried about with the race filter and bring it into line with where my research showed a horse was at its best.

After that field size might be worth looking at.

Just a public thank you to Wesmip1 for his help with my neural systems data, very kind to help out the way he has.

It's nice when a forum can really provide excellent help in the pursuit of a profit.

I'll second that Stix. Thanks very much for your help wesmip1. :)

agreed - thanks Wes for all your data and interesting posts - much appreciated.

I'm sure we are all the better for them.


Tony