Betting on Betfair.
 

I remember reading some time ago that if anyone layed every horse in every race at equal amounts they would end up losing.

If that is true, then it follows that backing every horse should win or at least lose a max of 5%.

On another thread on this forum I state that I'm backing between 70 and 80% of the runners in selected races. Over the three days (began betting on Wed) if I had backed every horse in these races regardless of form, price, whatever, I would have shown a profit for every day. In fact, yesterday the profit would have been double what I made with the usual system.

And today is no different. With only one race to go I cannot lose in both the normal and "bet every horse" systems. And again today the profit will be at least double for the "bet every horse" system.

It makes one think...

Can you say what the rules are?

Unfortunately I cannot release the rules otherwise it could dilute the divvies. And the success of the method may not continue.

Referring to backing every horse in the race, I've found from my system of currently 361 selections over four days that I would be considerably better off if I had omitted the more fancied horses. Its the higher-priced horses that pay much better on Betfair than the TAB. For example, today an outsider paid 50% more on Betfair S.P. than the TAB. Most winners under $10 only generally pay somewhat higher than the TAB divvies. In fact, I've even had some of the fancied winners pay less than the TAB divvy.

Don't know if this is adding or not but I can tell you DEFINITELY over the last year betting best tote on conveyances at LESS THAN 3-1 beat Bet Fair hands down win or place, that is plain hard fact.

You are right, at the higher end of the market BF (SP) comes out better over all, (for the win) only problem is "you have to pick the winners"

michaelg,

I realise your making a profit because over the last few days a few long shots have come in (especially Friday night). Have you checked what the strike rate was for winners in the $1 - $3 range, $3-$5 range, $5 - $10 range, $10+ range and compared it to overall profit you made.

In order for this to work long term you want to make sure the $1-$3 range is showing at least 35% as per long term statistics for this range. You might find that you just got a few days where the $10+ range had a few more winners then normal.

I haven't checked any of the price bands, and you are correct about the outsiders - the method depends on high-priced winners.

The method does not accept small fields, so the fave generally should not be too short.

The selection process is something I've been looking at for some time but never proceeded with it even though it had shown some potential.

With the advent of Betfair S.P. I tried different betting methods but the results were always up and down. Then I remembered the particular selection method and checked with TAB results which more or less mirrored what they had previously been - only a small TAB loss with a good proportion of high-priced winners. In fact it was last Wednesday that I remembered the method with only three qualifying races to go, and this was after a few good-priced winners would have been snared and consequently assuring a daily profit. As it was, even with three races to go I made about $100 profit.

After the four days, and betting $5 which I have been doing only on Betfair, the TAB profit is $46.00 yet the Betfair profit is $659.05.

Of course I am not saying the success will continue and could even lose it all today, but because of the huge Betfair divvies and my checking past results that shows good-priced winners, I think there is a fair possibility that the method will not fare too badly.

And there's a lot of fun betting it.

Michaelg,

Great work. I fully hope it continues for you. If its making a profit then you can't complain.

Betfair is great if you can snag a few longer priced winners. Anything over $15 will probably see you getting some sort of value in your selections.

In fact if you bet on all horses showing over $15 on betfair (in my database) you would have had : 39172 selections and returned somewhere between $33188 and $56303 after commission depending on what available price you took the bet. That ranges from a 16% loss to a 43% profit. It all depends on the price you obtain.

In fact applying just one filter to the above rule of $15+ on betfair will give you:

541 selections for a return of between $702 - $1963 ( the difference is the difference in odds offered to lay and bet). I always use the lower number when working on system ideas so in this case it would be a profit of 29%.

For only 2 rules : Price above $15 + 1 mystery rule you end up with a simple system that easily makes a profit on betfair but loses on the tote ( tote retun is a loss of 21% ). This shows there is a lot of value in longer selections on betfair.

Good Luck

Wesmip1, those are very interesting figures.

I would assume one of the filters is field size. The smaller the field then the lesser chance of a $15 winner, and also I would think that there is less scope for Betfair to satisfactorily outshine the TAB in the smaller fields.

I presume you've got your data from the Betfair website. Their figures are not totally accurate because a few years ago I checked it with a particular winner. The last traded price was higher than that shown on their site.

Betfair explained that if a horse's last traded price is $10, and all the availabe amount is taken, then they show its next available price. So a $9.80 winner shown on their site could in reality be $10, or even more. And the higher the winner's price the greater the possibility of this happening, and also with a greater discrepancy between their quoted and real prices.

So I would not be surprised if your $15-plus results would be even better in real betting.

I have no idea what will start at $15 or at any other price. The pre-post market is too unrealiable. Yesterday a single-priced winner was double odds in the p.p market, yet another winner was at single-odds yet paid about three times its p.p. price.

I forgot to add that this function of limiting the price is fortunately available on Betfair S.P. but because I like high strike rates I have no intention at this moment of using it.

However I might one day add it to my normal betting method if it continues to perform.

michaelg,

My betfair prices are recorded at 10-20 secs before the scheduled race start time. I collect the figures using my own program so I know the dollar amounts available at each level. If you have a winning method you should try betting it with small amounts on betfair. You can start with as little as 20c bets so a 100 unit bank will only cost you $20.

Its nothing for testing a potential winning system.

Hi Wesmip,

You knew you would be asked this question. How can you put a bet of 20 cents on betfair,..?.

Regards, Paul

Unfortunately Betfair has warned me not to again bet below the minimum, yet I'm under the impression that betting very small amounts through BOTS is not forbidden.

And I don't think their S.P. can be manuipulated to allow for this. Not that it currently worries me but that's not to say it won't in the future.

It is Michael, and they will ban you. Must do wonders for their bottom line banning accounts that turnover $1,000,000 plus per year.

Mark, a million dollar annual turnover equates to about $2,500 turnover each day, how many of their clients can come close to matching that? And anyone with such a high turnover would strongly be expected to be winning which means they are adding to Betfair's coffers. It's puzzling that they would threaten anyone whose annual turnover is above a certain amount.

They must have a good reason/s, otherwise you'd expect they wouldn't do it.

I'm speaking from experience Michael.

Did they give you a reason?

email me if you like.....punt mark at hot mail dot com....no gaps.

michaelg, Mark,

They WILL ban you if you trade in small amounts. All of the people I know have been banned for trading in less then $5 amounts. There is apparently some loop hole that saves you commission or affects the other side of the lay/bet. That has been the word from the people I have talked to that have been banned. Mark can you confirm if you were just placing one bet or doing trades (2 or more bets on the same horse in the same market).

If you bet a minimum of 20c you should be fine. I do it a lot to test systems and I have not even been questioned. I merely place the bet or lay though and do not trade. I guess my bets are also intermixed with higher then $5 bets as well so maybe that is why I have not been questioned/banned.

I know also that anyone that bets/lays under 10c will come under their radar as it automatically removes commissions on these bets (as the 5% is less then 1c). Hence I suggest 20c.

Good Luck.

Wesmip1, I don't think my bets were under $0.20 nor did I trade, but I did remove the connected bet of $5.00 before the race started just in case I accidentally did something silly with it. I suspect this could be the reason they warned me.

My system lost today. I had 10 winners from 11 races, but because most of them were fancied in the market the outlay was more than the return. Fortunately the loss was only $0.30.

michaelg,

Just checked the bets against the system I came up with thanks to your prompting. It had 4 bets today for one $18 winner.

If I had started it yesterday it would have been even better. There were 13 bets yesterday for 2 winners priced at $16 and $29.

That's an excellant result - looks very promising, hopefully it will continue. I presume this is with Betfair. Do you also intend to record TAB divvies for comparison purposes?

Yesterday my system would have lost about $50 with the TAB but only $0.30 with Betfair S.P. And over the 5 day period of betting, the profit is $658.75 but with the TAB it would be a loss of $5. There is such an amazing difference.

MIchaelg,

I keep betfair and unitab prices. It is showing a profit with both (but obviously more with betfair).